(06-05-2013 01:44 PM)JRsec Wrote: (06-05-2013 12:37 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:
Think about what you are saying here as it applies to economics. The goal would be to equalize the earning potential of the SEC and ACC to make them both too strong to fail. A weakened ACC as we just witnessed is not in the interest long or short term for the SEC. The SEC has grown with the ACC as a buffer. Nobody in Birmingham wanted the Big 10 in Atlanta or Florida, nobody! Do you really think that Auburn would move to an academically crippled ACC? If Virginia and North Carolina move that is exactly what you would have and Auburn would no longer be a top earner. Pitt, Syracuse and Notre Dame would all be shopping and there wouldn't be anything left but an even more impaired ACC ripe for the picking by the Big 10. Georgia Tech, Clemson and Florida State in the ACC are rivals. Put those three in the Big 10 and they become a problem.
I think the real reason that there was no movement was because Virginia and North Carolina weren't interested and Viriginia Tech wasn't going anywhere if the Cavaliers were sticking and N.C. State couldn't have gotten permission from the University of North Carolina System if the Heels were staying put. The move that would have cracked the nut would have been for the SEC to take Clemson and F.S.U. but the networks made it clear that such moves would not be rewarded. There is your answer as to why it didn't happen.
I doubt it would happen but the ideal situation for both the ACC and SEC would be a move to 18 each in which the ACC could have a six team Western division. Then the crossover games would not be as frequent and it would be more like a scheduling alliance. They could compromise on Oklahoma and Kansas and form even a more complete zipper. The top properties would become the sole property of ESPN and there is your network motivation, if one is needed.
The eight teams taken would be enough to dissolve the Big 12. 3 six team divisions would group rivals well enough to eliminate permanent cross overs and then with a 9 game conference schedule you could play everyone ever three years and have a wild card for the team with the remaining best record after the divisional champs were crowned. That would reward divisions that were stronger and bring more balance to a conference playoff. If the Big 10 and PAC want to go to 16 let them work it out.
Yes, I do believe that it would be in ESPN's interests to move UNC and UVA to the SEC under such a circumstance and market the heck out of the bitter hatred and rivalries between the flagships and their state/private peers. I really believe you would divide fans along those lines and increase the popularity even more. Again, I am not thinking what any individual school would want; I am thinking of what ESPN would want. ESPN would take care of everyone very well financially. Additionally, the swap I suggest hardly puts the ACC in a crippled position. With UNC and UVA, the average school rank is 56. Remove UNC and UVA, and that membership still averages a 60 for overall ranking. The SEC is currently a 98 average. Adding UVA and UNC still only puts that at a 90 average. Additionally, the ACC would only increase the gap if Vandy moved over to the ACC. Heck, if the names SEC and ACC are what everybody is hung up on, drop the name and call it the Southern. It wouldn't take much to buy they name back.
As to why the NC and VA schools did not move conferences, no one knows for sure. Your reason is plausible, but I don't believe for a second that UVA and UNC were not at least a bit interested to see what their options could be, especially before they got the Notre Dame deal. Remember back to before that was even a possibility; things were not stable at all.
For argument's sake, below is what it would look like if you divided the current SEC and ACC into flagships vs. state/private. I am going to leave TAMU out because it they could fit in either position as needed:
Flagship (12 schools). Academic average - 92. Revenue average - $91 mil
State/Private (16 schools). Academic average - 65. Revenue average - $70 mil
TAMU is ranked 65 and has an $80 mil revenue, so they would not skew the results much either way. Flagship makes more money, but it is proportionate to how much better the State/Private schools are at academics. There is not a huge disparity here. Also, WVU would jump on this wagon in a heartbeat once their Big 12 GoR expires. They are a 165 rank with 80 mil. That brings the average even closer in revenue and furthers the divide in academics. If Auburn absolutely can't stand being away from the flagships, the numbers lay out in such a way that a few state schools may need to join the flagships. That's fine; its the general overview of the entire thing that is important.
I certainly don't have all the answers, and everybody has their ideal of what they want to see out of college athletics. Personally, I want to see peers together and for there to be some serious competitive juices flowing. Heck, I wouldn't care if they called the whole thing the ACC and drop SEC altogether if that got the deal done. For branding, just calling it the "Atlantic Conference" makes sense. It is not about the names, it is about the match-ups and what would be successful for each university and their TV partners.