(05-30-2013 01:26 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Aaron Fitt and John Manuel of Baseball America did a podcast preview of each of the regionals. The Eugene regional appears in Part I at the 30:21 mark...,

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/r...arts-i-ii/

In their Rice review, Manuel starts off very condescending and implies we've had a really down year, and our pitching staff is only so-so...but Fitt corrects him a bit. I mean I know AK has had control issues, particularly in the middle of the season, but how can one badmouth a guy with his across-the-board stats (e.g., 2.03 ERA, .196 BAA, and 2nd in the country in strikeouts per 9 IP)? Then Manuel proceeds to rave up S.F.'s Balog-- he with the 3.69 ERA, .278 BAA and just 5 Ks/game). Go figure.

The answer to that is to win the regional, and at least somebody higher than a #4 seed

collegebaseballdailycom's preview of the Eugene regional-- very fair and balance assessment, IMO...

http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2013...t=FaceBook

(05-29-2013 10:47 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-29-2013 10:33 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(05-29-2013 10:22 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Talk about lack of respect-- kendall rates the Eugene regional as one of his five "easiest"...

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=8522

I think that's a fair assessment. You're talking about three other regional teams that have a grand total of 11 regional wins in their respective baseball history and a losing record to boot.

The only thing I'd maybe quibble about is it seems our region and the Corvallis region are pretty similar so he could have put either 5/6 or 6/5.

??? How many regional wins does Oregon have in their history...and last year, as the #5 national seed, they lost their home regional to Kent State. Again, past year's post-season performane is totally irrelevant. Oregon is a sub-par offensive team (much worse than Rice) that relies exclusively on small ball, pitching and defense. To knock our offense when it is the best amongst the top 3 seeds in our regional is not what I'd call a "fair assessment".

I haven't seen Oregon play, but statistically you cannot support "much worse than" our offense. Our offense this year is okay.... Our ability to hit extra base hits is rather mediocre and I'm being fairly generous. Maybe oregon shares that deficiency, but our guys win from the mound and field first, make no mistake about that.

As for weakness of a regional......meh. Just win it and then win next weekend then go to Omaha. That right there is hard enough no matter which stinking regional you're placed in and how weak or strong it is said to be.

I happen to think by having USF as the #3 and Rice as the #2, an Oregon beat writer might suggest that the home town Quackers got screwed. But what do I know?!!!

Chasingomaha.com is picking Rice to win the Eugene regional, but base on some of the inaccuracies in their preview, I'm not giving it all that much weight...

http://www.chasingomaha.com/college-base...iew-2.html

...how can anyone say S.F. doesn't have the pitching staff to compete with Rice or Oregon when they have 4 quality starters and arguably the best and deepest bullpen in the regional? And how can one say S.F. has the most potent offense, when a quick look at the stats say otherwise? I also question the comment that Rice has a deeper staff than Oregon. Not what I see.

Quote:Best Pitcher

Austin Kubitza, Rice — Kubitza leads a Rice pitching staff that is stacked. The junior has an earned run average right around 2.00 and has been the leader of this staff for three years now.

Who Will Win?

Rice — The Owls have the pitching to make things miserable on Oregon. The Ducks were handed a controversial national seed but struggle to score runs against good pitching. In the end, Rice’s pitching staff is deeper than Oregon’s staff, and that very well could be the thing that sends the Owls into the super regional round this year.

(05-30-2013 07:45 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Oregon rolling the dice and pitching their Sunday starter, Jake Reed, vs. South Dakota State in their opener on Friday-- despite pitching on only 5 days rest and struggling his past two outings. Pretty big gamble since South Dakota State does have a quality Friday night starter and closer-- both with ERAs under 2.00, and averaging better than a strikeout per IP.

I'd save my ace too. SDSU plays nobody, so their stats are meaningless and their talent, while unknown, is likely subpar too. With us and USF on deck, I'd want to have all guns loaded and ready for games 2 and on also. It's a gamble, but IMHO not a long shot and a wise one at that.

(05-31-2013 09:22 AM)ricedogz94 Wrote:  

(05-30-2013 07:45 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Oregon rolling the dice and pitching their Sunday starter, Jake Reed, vs. South Dakota State in their opener on Friday-- despite pitching on only 5 days rest and struggling his past two outings. Pretty big gamble since South Dakota State does have a quality Friday night starter and closer-- both with ERAs under 2.00, and averaging better than a strikeout per IP.

I'd save my ace too. SDSU plays nobody, so their stats are meaningless and their talent, while unknown, is likely subpar too. With us and USF on deck, I'd want to have all guns loaded and ready for games 2 and on also. It's a gamble, but IMHO not a long shot and a wise one at that.

Saving your ace is one thing; pitching your Sunday starter who has struggled in his last two outings is another altogether. Oregon is not an offensive dynamo, and SDSU does have an ace pitcher with outstanding stats (albeit against a weak SoS).

Here's Aaron Fitt's/Baseball America's preview of the Eugene regional...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/e...l-preview/

...the most comprehensive and accurate writeup of all of our regional teams Ive seen yet.

(05-31-2013 09:37 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:22 AM)ricedogz94 Wrote:  

(05-30-2013 07:45 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Oregon rolling the dice and pitching their Sunday starter, Jake Reed, vs. South Dakota State in their opener on Friday-- despite pitching on only 5 days rest and struggling his past two outings. Pretty big gamble since South Dakota State does have a quality Friday night starter and closer-- both with ERAs under 2.00, and averaging better than a strikeout per IP.

I'd save my ace too. SDSU plays nobody, so their stats are meaningless and their talent, while unknown, is likely subpar too. With us and USF on deck, I'd want to have all guns loaded and ready for games 2 and on also. It's a gamble, but IMHO not a long shot and a wise one at that.

Saving your ace is one thing; pitching your Sunday starter who has struggled in his last two outings is another altogether. Oregon is not an offensive dynamo, and SDSU does have an ace pitcher with outstanding stats (albeit against a weak SoS).

If Rice plays SDSU at any point in the losers bracket, I would expect us to use a mid-week starter and go "all staff" rather than use one of our remaining weekend starters.

(05-31-2013 09:51 AM)temchugh Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:37 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:22 AM)ricedogz94 Wrote:  

(05-30-2013 07:45 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Oregon rolling the dice and pitching their Sunday starter, Jake Reed, vs. South Dakota State in their opener on Friday-- despite pitching on only 5 days rest and struggling his past two outings. Pretty big gamble since South Dakota State does have a quality Friday night starter and closer-- both with ERAs under 2.00, and averaging better than a strikeout per IP.

I'd save my ace too. SDSU plays nobody, so their stats are meaningless and their talent, while unknown, is likely subpar too. With us and USF on deck, I'd want to have all guns loaded and ready for games 2 and on also. It's a gamble, but IMHO not a long shot and a wise one at that.

Saving your ace is one thing; pitching your Sunday starter who has struggled in his last two outings is another altogether. Oregon is not an offensive dynamo, and SDSU does have an ace pitcher with outstanding stats (albeit against a weak SoS).

If Rice plays SDSU at any point in the losers bracket, I would expect us to use a mid-week starter and go "all staff" rather than use one of our remaining weekend starters.

You wanna bet? Should we face them tomorrow in the winners' bracket, The OG will go with Simms and make every effort to stay in the winners bracket (which would guarantee no more than 4 games this weekend). Should we face them tomorrow in the losers' bracket, do you really think Wayne would risk going 2&Q by going with McDowell or McCanna, and potential not using Simms or Stephens in the regional? I certainly don't.

(05-31-2013 09:57 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:51 AM)temchugh Wrote:  If Rice plays SDSU at any point in the losers bracket, I would expect us to use a mid-week starter and go "all staff" rather than use one of our remaining weekend starters.

You wanna bet? Should we face them tomorrow in the winners' bracket, The OG will go with Simms and make every effort to stay in the winners bracket (which would guarantee no more than 4 games this weekend). Should we face them tomorrow in the losers' bracket, do you really think Wayne would risk going 2&Q by going with McDowell or McCanna, and potential not using Simms or Stephens in the regional? I certainly don't.

If we play them in the winner's bracket then I agree we throw Simms and make every effort to win that game because the winner's bracket is such a huge advantage.

If we end up in the loser's bracket we will have to play five total games (and win four straight) to advance, so we will have to throw McDowell and/or McCanna at some point. I'd much rather throw them against SDSU than Oregon/SF's #3 starter. It is the riskier strategy because it increases your chances of going 0-2, but I think the reward of saving Simms/Stephens is worth it.

(05-31-2013 09:57 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:51 AM)temchugh Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:37 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:22 AM)ricedogz94 Wrote:  

(05-30-2013 07:45 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Oregon rolling the dice and pitching their Sunday starter, Jake Reed, vs. South Dakota State in their opener on Friday-- despite pitching on only 5 days rest and struggling his past two outings. Pretty big gamble since South Dakota State does have a quality Friday night starter and closer-- both with ERAs under 2.00, and averaging better than a strikeout per IP.

I'd save my ace too. SDSU plays nobody, so their stats are meaningless and their talent, while unknown, is likely subpar too. With us and USF on deck, I'd want to have all guns loaded and ready for games 2 and on also. It's a gamble, but IMHO not a long shot and a wise one at that.

Saving your ace is one thing; pitching your Sunday starter who has struggled in his last two outings is another altogether. Oregon is not an offensive dynamo, and SDSU does have an ace pitcher with outstanding stats (albeit against a weak SoS).

If Rice plays SDSU at any point in the losers bracket, I would expect us to use a mid-week starter and go "all staff" rather than use one of our remaining weekend starters.

You wanna bet? Should we face them tomorrow in the winners' bracket, The OG will go with Simms and make every effort to stay in the winners bracket (which would guarantee no more than 4 games this weekend). Should we face them tomorrow in the losers' bracket, do you really think Wayne would risk going 2&Q by going with McDowell or McCanna, and potential not using Simms or Stephens in the regional? I certainly don't.

I am all for saving your number 1 for game 2 as it is usually the most important game of the regional. If you lose Game 1, now you are fighting for your life to battle through the loser's bracket but if you win Game 1, that second game puts you into the Regional Championship in which you need to be beat twice to be eliminated back to back.

Anyways, San Fran probably has the best starting pitching staff in the regional but the offense might be a question.

The key in playing against the Ducks as I have seen in person is "BUNT" defense. They bunt all the time and put pressure on your defense. If you can't defend that, you can be in for massive trouble.

I was going to say SDSU played some decent teams but just double checked their schedule and they have played NOBODY

(05-31-2013 09:57 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:51 AM)temchugh Wrote:  If Rice plays SDSU at any point in the losers bracket, I would expect us to use a mid-week starter and go "all staff" rather than use one of our remaining weekend starters.

You wanna bet? Should we face them tomorrow in the winners' bracket, The OG will go with Simms and make every effort to stay in the winners bracket (which would guarantee no more than 4 games this weekend). Should we face them tomorrow in the losers' bracket, do you really think Wayne would risk going 2&Q by going with McDowell or McCanna, and potential not using Simms or Stephens in the regional? I certainly don't.

Re: winners bracket - thats why I said losers bracket.

Re: Losers bracket - seems more important to maximize the odds of winning the regional than minimize the odds of going 0-2.

(05-31-2013 11:04 AM)temchugh Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:57 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:51 AM)temchugh Wrote:  If Rice plays SDSU at any point in the losers bracket, I would expect us to use a mid-week starter and go "all staff" rather than use one of our remaining weekend starters.

You wanna bet? Should we face them tomorrow in the winners' bracket, The OG will go with Simms and make every effort to stay in the winners bracket (which would guarantee no more than 4 games this weekend). Should we face them tomorrow in the losers' bracket, do you really think Wayne would risk going 2&Q by going with McDowell or McCanna, and potential not using Simms or Stephens in the regional? I certainly don't.

Let's hope we don't have to worry about who starts if we lose game one, although I agree w Walt. Most of our guys have the stuff to handle the opposition we will face this weekend, as long as they don't gift them too many opportunities - HBP, walks errors.

Re: winners bracket - thats why I said losers bracket.

Re: Losers bracket - seems more important to maximize the odds of winning the regional than minimize the odds of going 0-2.

(05-31-2013 10:32 AM)The College Baseball Blog Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:57 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:51 AM)temchugh Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:37 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:22 AM)ricedogz94 Wrote:  I'd save my ace too. SDSU plays nobody, so their stats are meaningless and their talent, while unknown, is likely subpar too. With us and USF on deck, I'd want to have all guns loaded and ready for games 2 and on also. It's a gamble, but IMHO not a long shot and a wise one at that.

Saving your ace is one thing; pitching your Sunday starter who has struggled in his last two outings is another altogether. Oregon is not an offensive dynamo, and SDSU does have an ace pitcher with outstanding stats (albeit against a weak SoS).

If Rice plays SDSU at any point in the losers bracket, I would expect us to use a mid-week starter and go "all staff" rather than use one of our remaining weekend starters.

You wanna bet? Should we face them tomorrow in the winners' bracket, The OG will go with Simms and make every effort to stay in the winners bracket (which would guarantee no more than 4 games this weekend). Should we face them tomorrow in the losers' bracket, do you really think Wayne would risk going 2&Q by going with McDowell or McCanna, and potential not using Simms or Stephens in the regional? I certainly don't.

I am all for saving your number 1 for game 2 as it is usually the most important game of the regional. If you lose Game 1, now you are fighting for your life to battle through the loser's bracket but if you win Game 1, that second game puts you into the Regional Championship in which you need to be beat twice to be eliminated back to back.

Anyways, San Fran probably has the best starting pitching staff in the regional but the offense might be a question.

The key in playing against the Ducks as I have seen in person is "BUNT" defense. They bunt all the time and put pressure on your defense. If you can't defend that, you can be in for massive trouble.

I was going to say SDSU played some decent teams but just double checked their schedule and they have played NOBODY

Brian, I'm not convinced SF has better starting pitching than Rice or Oregon. Bobbs has been hurtin and Balog has struggled the past several weeks. What scares me is their bullpen. We can ill-afford to enter the 5th or 6th inning down by more than one run.

As for bunt defense, 3B Hoelscher is exceptional against the bunt, and our first basemen (Ewing, Fox) are solid, as are our pitchers.

(05-31-2013 11:04 AM)temchugh Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:57 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:51 AM)temchugh Wrote:  If Rice plays SDSU at any point in the losers bracket, I would expect us to use a mid-week starter and go "all staff" rather than use one of our remaining weekend starters.

You wanna bet? Should we face them tomorrow in the winners' bracket, The OG will go with Simms and make every effort to stay in the winners bracket (which would guarantee no more than 4 games this weekend). Should we face them tomorrow in the losers' bracket, do you really think Wayne would risk going 2&Q by going with McDowell or McCanna, and potential not using Simms or Stephens in the regional? I certainly don't.

Re: winners bracket - thats why I said losers bracket.

Re: Losers bracket - seems more important to maximize the odds of winning the regional than minimize the odds of going 0-2.

I disagree, but let's just hope we don't get into that situation. The thing with McDowell is that depending whether he has the command of his curveball going, he can shut down anybody...but if not, he's a batting practice pitcher. And he hasn't thrown competitively in almost 3 weeks.

(05-31-2013 10:28 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:57 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 09:51 AM)temchugh Wrote:  If Rice plays SDSU at any point in the losers bracket, I would expect us to use a mid-week starter and go "all staff" rather than use one of our remaining weekend starters.

You wanna bet? Should we face them tomorrow in the winners' bracket, The OG will go with Simms and make every effort to stay in the winners bracket (which would guarantee no more than 4 games this weekend). Should we face them tomorrow in the losers' bracket, do you really think Wayne would risk going 2&Q by going with McDowell or McCanna, and potential not using Simms or Stephens in the regional? I certainly don't.

If we play them in the winner's bracket then I agree we throw Simms and make every effort to win that game because the winner's bracket is such a huge advantage.

If we end up in the loser's bracket we will have to play five total games (and win four straight) to advance, so we will have to throw McDowell and/or McCanna at some point. I'd much rather throw them against SDSU than Oregon/SF's #3 starter. It is the riskier strategy because it increases your chances of going 0-2, but I think the reward of saving Simms/Stephens is worth it.

In a scenario of playing SDSU in the losers' bracket, I think Coach Graham goes with Simms at least until Rice gets a decent lead. If the game is tight, Graham probably uses Simms for a full start, but if Rice jumps ahead 4-0 after two innings, Coach probably pulls Simms as quickly as possible to save him for a fifth game.

Coach Graham has said something to the effect that you don't go out with your best bullets still in the chamber. He would keep his best starters in for the critical elimination-risk moments, but he would also conserve them when possible.

Rule #1: try not to end up in the losers' bracket.

Even though Oregon and USF (and it's "USF", not San Fran!) are quality opponents, I like the Owls' chances in this regional. I think this Rice team has the fighting spirit to play well against small-ball teams. My main fear would be playing a team with a lot of power in the lineup playing in a hitters' park and the ability to throw one or two elite pitchers for a crucial game, and that's not so much the case in this regional. (Arkansas fit this bill last year.) As long as Rice doesn't fall behind too quickly in a disastrous inning, I think they have the juice to grind out the wins in tight games.

Why all the talk about Simms on Saturday? Isn't Stephens our #2?

I say, Kubitza on Friday, Stephens on Saturday and Simms on Sunday. Then head to the airport where the 2&Q Aggies will be waiting with their chartered plane.

Anybody think the Aggies will mind if we borrow their plane to go over to Raliegh next weekend?

Go Owls!

(05-31-2013 02:53 PM)CoatzaOwl Wrote:  Why all the talk about Simms on Saturday? Isn't Stephens our #2?

I say, Kubitza on Friday, Stephens on Saturday and Simms on Sunday. Then head to the airport where the 2&Q Aggies will be waiting with their chartered plane.

Anybody think the Aggies will mind if we borrow their plane to go over to Raliegh next weekend?

Go Owls!

Stephens pitched on Thursday and Sunday last week, while Simms pitched on Saturday. Consequently, must of us are assuming Simms will be our #2 this weekend. The only reason Simms was our Sunday starter throughout the season is that The OG liked to have him as an option out of the pen on Fridays (to leave Lemond for Saturday). Unfortunatley, that strategy backfired a couple times, as Big John was not at full strength come his start on Sunday.

(05-31-2013 03:44 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-31-2013 02:53 PM)CoatzaOwl Wrote:  Why all the talk about Simms on Saturday? Isn't Stephens our #2?

I say, Kubitza on Friday, Stephens on Saturday and Simms on Sunday. Then head to the airport where the 2&Q Aggies will be waiting with their chartered plane.

Anybody think the Aggies will mind if we borrow their plane to go over to Raliegh next weekend?

Go Owls!

Stephens pitched on Thursday and Sunday last week, while Simms pitched on Saturday. Consequently, must of us are assuming Simms will be our #2 this weekend. The only reason Simms was our Sunday starter throughout the season is that The OG liked to have him as an option out of the pen on Fridays (to leave Lemond for Saturday). Unfortunatley, that strategy backfired a couple times, as Big John was not at full strength come his start on Sunday.

Backfired? I had to go to the end of March to find a Sunday loss.