I was discussing this with someone the other day and noting my total ambivalence about this years team. As far as early predictions go, how do people see this season shaping up? Last year, I really thought we were ready to make a huge run. Then, we had the total implosion at QB, the defense fell back a notch or two, injuries hit us fairly hard, and we just failed to evolve into the kind of team we needed to be with losses like Richmond and that gutter trash ODU.

So, is their some reason to be optimistic this year? I know we have a new OC, and we are supposedly going to be a passing team, and that is supposedly going to work. I just don't see it though. We have a young, unproven QB and as far as I can tell a staggering lack of receiving options. Our line certainly does not look any stronger to me, and I honestly don't know if that defense will get better or continue to slide some more. Does anyone else see it this way? What are your projections for the team this year(I realize it is early). Last year I was pretty gung ho and crushed, what will this year bring?

(05-23-2013 10:31 AM)mistrhanky Wrote:  I was discussing this with someone the other day and noting my total ambivalence about this years team. As far as early predictions go, how do people see this season shaping up? Last year, I really thought we were ready to make a huge run. Then, we had the total implosion at QB, the defense fell back a notch or two, injuries hit us fairly hard, and we just failed to evolve into the kind of team we needed to be with losses like Richmond and that gutter trash ODU.

So, is their some reason to be optimistic this year? I know we have a new OC, and we are supposedly going to be a passing team, and that is supposedly going to work. I just don't see it though. We have a young, unproven QB and as far as I can tell a staggering lack of receiving options. Our line certainly does not look any stronger to me, and I honestly don't know if that defense will get better or continue to slide some more. Does anyone else see it this way? What are your projections for the team this year(I realize it is early). Last year I was pretty gung ho and crushed, what will this year bring?

Gotta love a "mistrhanky" calling ODU gutter trash. Can you teach us to be classy like you?

(05-23-2013 10:41 AM)ODU2003 Wrote:  Gotta love a "mistrhanky" calling a ODU gutter trash. Can you teach us to be classly like you?

First you have to learn how to spell/type.

(05-23-2013 10:46 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  

(05-23-2013 10:41 AM)ODU2003 Wrote:  Gotta love a "mistrhanky" calling a ODU gutter trash. Can you teach us to be classly like you?

First you have to learn how to spell/type.

Excellent. I've corrected the typo - what's next?

(05-23-2013 11:05 AM)ODU2003 Wrote:  Excellent. I've corrected the typo - what's next?

I see a smothering defense with a transitional offense that will be clicking by mid season. A national title is a definite possibility.

most people won't give credit to our opponents - they'll say Albany and Stonybrook? PSH garbage. But we face some tough football teams this year even if the name doesn't say Maryland, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, etc. We could lose some games people will chalk up as a win. Unfortunately that will translate to "we must really suck" instead of "Stony Brook has a good team and won their conference last year".

We certainly don't have a cake schedule or a cake football conference but most will think it as such.

(05-23-2013 04:05 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  most people won't give credit to our opponents - they'll say Albany and Stonybrook? PSH garbage. But we face some tough football teams this year even if the name doesn't say Maryland, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, etc. We could lose some games people will chalk up as a win. Unfortunately that will translate to "we must really suck" instead of "Stony Brook has a good team and won their conference last year".

We certainly don't have a cake schedule or a cake football conference but most will think it as such.

Given that, how do you see the team shaping up? I agree with you on this btw, I think these teams will be tougher than we think.

(05-23-2013 04:18 PM)mistrhanky Wrote:  

(05-23-2013 04:05 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  most people won't give credit to our opponents - they'll say Albany and Stonybrook? PSH garbage. But we face some tough football teams this year even if the name doesn't say Maryland, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, etc. We could lose some games people will chalk up as a win. Unfortunately that will translate to "we must really suck" instead of "Stony Brook has a good team and won their conference last year".

We certainly don't have a cake schedule or a cake football conference but most will think it as such.

Given that, how do you see the team shaping up? I agree with you on this btw, I think these teams will be tougher than we think.

Those will be tougher than people think, but is there anything to suggest that we shouldn't be a significant favorite in those games? What current CAA members are they comparable to? I would compare them to URI or Hofstra (RIP) - tough teams, but we should beat them more times than not.

Think you might want to reevaluate that URI part, but otherwise I agree. SB made a little run on the playoffs didn't they?

Just looked, beat Villanova in rd 1. Lost to Mt. St. So not really a run, but a W over a pretty good 'Nova squad.

XM

SB and Albany are top 20 FCS programs. They will be tough games.

J

(05-23-2013 04:36 PM)JMU2004 Wrote:  SB and Albany are top 20 FCS programs. They will be tough games.

SB yes. Albany no. Heck, Albany is just in the 1st yr of going above 36 schollies..

We'll end up 8-3 and miss the playoffs because our idiot athletic administration couldn't figure out how to schedule a 12th game.

We could also very easily end up 4-7 with our schedule.

CCSU - win
@ Akron - toss up
StFU! - win
@ UD - toss up
Albany - 'should' win
Richmond - toss up
@ W&M - 'should' win
Nova - probable loss
@ UNH - toss up
Stony Brook - toss up
@ Towson - toss up

In either of those scenarios, Mickey is gone at the end of the season.

(05-23-2013 07:41 PM)JMUSuperfan2000 Wrote:  We'll end up 8-3 and miss the playoffs because our idiot athletic administration couldn't figure out how to schedule a 12th game.

We could also very easily end up 4-7 with our schedule.

CCSU - win
@ Akron - toss up
StFU! - win
@ UD - toss up
Albany - 'should' win
Richmond - toss up
@ W&M - 'should' win
Nova - probable loss
@ UNH - toss up
Stony Brook - toss up
@ Towson - toss up

In either of those scenarios, Mickey is gone at the end of the season.

Wrong! 8-3 All Div I with a I-A out of the CAA will be a lock for the playoffs 2013. REMEMBER:
-Last season was a freak yr. In the 1st 2 seasons that had 20 team field, from the 4 top conferences (CAA, So-Con, MVFC, Big Sky), you had six 7-4, All Div I schedules and that played a I-A. ALL 6 got in. Last season from those 4 conferences 4 teams with 7 Div I wins (JMU, TU, YSU, and NAU (8-3, 7-3 Div I, played 2 I-A). NONE got in, plus UR at 8-3 also didn't.
-Playoffs expands from 20 to 24 teams. Only 1 more AQ, from the Pioneer, so 3 more at large spots.
-ASU and GSU won't be eligible, will almost certainly be playoff caliber teams with at least 7-8 Div I wins, and almost certainly get in otherwise. So that will open up 2 more spots.

8-3 will be a mortal lock. 7-4 would be sweating it.

(05-23-2013 07:41 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(05-23-2013 04:36 PM)JMU2004 Wrote:  SB and Albany are top 20 FCS programs. They will be tough games.

SB yes. Albany no. Heck, Albany is just in the 1st yr of going above 36 schollies..

Albany has gone 17-6 over the last 2 seasons. They are perennial contenders in the NEC. Barely lost to SB in the first round of the FCS playoffs in 2011. They beat Maine in 2011 (same UM team that beat JMU and ASU) and 2010, and have played close games with Georgia Southern, UMass, and UNH in the last 5 years. They also humbled UD in 2006.

They're going to be pretty tough based on past results.

(05-23-2013 07:56 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Wrong! 8-3 All Div I with a I-A out of the CAA will be a lock for the playoffs 2013. REMEMBER:
-Last season was a freak yr. In the 1st 2 seasons that had 20 team field, from the 4 top conferences (CAA, So-Con, MVFC, Big Sky), you had six 7-4, All Div I schedules and that played a I-A. ALL 6 got in. Last season from those 4 conferences 4 teams with 7 Div I wins (JMU, TU, YSU, and NAU (8-3, 7-3 Div I, played 2 I-A). NONE got in, plus UR at 8-3 also didn't.
-Playoffs expands from 20 to 24 teams. Only 1 more AQ, from the Pioneer, so 3 more at large spots.
-ASU and GSU won't be eligible, will almost certainly be playoff caliber teams with at least 7-8 Div I wins, and almost certainly get in otherwise. So that will open up 2 more spots.

8-3 will be a mortal lock. 7-4 would be sweating it.

I was being somewhat facetious about the 8-3 comment. But at the same time, just about every other quality team in the nation is going to be playing 12 games next year, and there will be an awful lot of teams with 9+ wins. We're shooting ourselves in the collective foot by not having that extra winnable game on the schedule.

(05-23-2013 08:48 PM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(05-23-2013 07:41 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(05-23-2013 04:36 PM)JMU2004 Wrote:  SB and Albany are top 20 FCS programs. They will be tough games.

SB yes. Albany no. Heck, Albany is just in the 1st yr of going above 36 schollies..

Albany has gone 17-6 over the last 2 seasons. They are perennial contenders in the NEC. Barely lost to SB in the first round of the FCS playoffs in 2011. They beat Maine in 2011 (same UM team that beat JMU and ASU) and 2010,and have played close games with Georgia Southern, UMass, and UNH in the last 5 years. They also humbled UD in 2006.

They're going to be pretty tough based on past results.

2011: Maine 31, Albany 15.

And that Georgia Southern team was 5-6.

Albany in the last 5 seasons vs top 5 conference (CAA/So Con/MVFC/Southland/Big Sky: 3-9. The 3 teams they beat all had losing records.

2008 LOSS @ UMass 28-16
2008 WON Hofstra 22-16 OT (HU was 4-8, lost to JMU 56-0)
2008 LOSS @ UNH 32-24
2008 LOSS @ UD 38-7
2009 LOSS @ GSU 29-26 (GSU was 5-6)
2009 LOSS @ UMass 44-7
2010 WON @ Maine 3-0 (Maine was 4-7)
2010 LOSS @ SF Austin 59-14
2011 LOSS Maine 31-15
2011 LOSS @ SHSU 31-28 (playoffs)
2012 LOSS @ YSU 31-24
2012 WON @ Maine 30-20 (Maine was 5-6)

Looking at their game notes from their last game versus CCSU, they lose 11 of 22 starters, which looking at everyone else's game notes, they return the fewest of anyone in the CAA. They lose 7 of 9 who earned All NEC Honors.

I would be mildy concerned if the game was @ Albany. But will be @ JMU, and Albany will be on their 2nd straight road game, as Albany is @ ODU the week prior. There's 8 games for JMU I am concerned about. This isn't one of them.

Looking at Albany's schedule, I could see them start 4-0, but end up 5-7.
9/31 @ Duquesne
9/7 @ Colgate
9/14 Rhode Island
9/21 Central Connecticut State
9/28 @ Old Dominion
10/5 @ James Madison
10/12 @ Delaware
10/19 Towson
10/26 Bye
11/2 @ Richmond
11/9 Maine
11/16 New Hampshire
11/23 @ Stony Brook

(05-23-2013 09:40 PM)JMUSuperfan2000 Wrote:  

(05-23-2013 07:56 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Wrong! 8-3 All Div I with a I-A out of the CAA will be a lock for the playoffs 2013. REMEMBER:
-Last season was a freak yr. In the 1st 2 seasons that had 20 team field, from the 4 top conferences (CAA, So-Con, MVFC, Big Sky), you had six 7-4, All Div I schedules and that played a I-A. ALL 6 got in. Last season from those 4 conferences 4 teams with 7 Div I wins (JMU, TU, YSU, and NAU (8-3, 7-3 Div I, played 2 I-A). NONE got in, plus UR at 8-3 also didn't.
-Playoffs expands from 20 to 24 teams. Only 1 more AQ, from the Pioneer, so 3 more at large spots.
-ASU and GSU won't be eligible, will almost certainly be playoff caliber teams with at least 7-8 Div I wins, and almost certainly get in otherwise. So that will open up 2 more spots.

8-3 will be a mortal lock. 7-4 would be sweating it.

I was being somewhat facetious about the 8-3 comment. But at the same time, just about every other quality team in the nation is going to be playing 12 games next year, and there will be an awful lot of teams with 9+ wins. We're shooting ourselves in the collective foot by not having that extra winnable game on the schedule.

I agree, we should have a 12th DIV I game on the schedule. But not just about every other quality team is playing 12 DIV I games this season. Remember, 12 with a Div II is no better than 11 all Div I: Taking a quick look at the schedules of the teams from the 5 top conferences with 12 DIV I games.

CAA: 7 of 11
So Con: 4 of 7 (Didn't count ASU or GSO since not playoff eligible).
Big Sky: 4 of 13
MVFC: 6 of 10
Southland: 1 of 8
Total: 22 of 49.

Of the 27 that don't have 12 Div I games, a lot have 12 games, but have a Div II in there.
Of the 22 teams that do have 12 Div I games, odds are statistically that 2-3 of them will finish 8-4, placing them above an 7-4 JMU.

So for not having that 12th Div I game to screw JMU, JMU would 1st have to go 7-4, then get left out of a 24 team field where 2 of the top 24 teams (ASU & GSU) were ineligible. That could all align that way and happen, but me thinks a fairly remote chance.