The Rice Baseball Owls, suddenly riding a modest 5-game win streak, enter this week's CUSA conference tournament as the host team and #1 seed. Having now secured our 18th consecutive conference championship, the Owls could achieve two other preseason goals with a strong tournament performance-- (1) locking up our 19th consecutive NCAA post-season appearance, and (2) reaching the 40-win plateau for the 19th consecutive season. Both our within our grasp. We simply need to bring the aggressiveness, energy, focus and steely determination we exhibited last weekend against Marshall. Even more motivation-- with UAB, UCF and Memphis in our tournament pool, we have the opportunity to avenge our only two weekend series losses of the season; both at home (to UCF and Memphis). First game for Rice will be the Wednesday evening game, currently scheduled to start at 7:00pm (but which could very well be delayed depending upon the time required to complete the preceding two games scheduled for that day). Here's the complete schedule of all CUSA tournament games...

http://blog.chron.com/owls/2013/05/confe...chedule-2/

No need to prepare another, updated preview and scouting report on the UAB Blazers since we just played them In Birmingham three weeks ago. We took two of the three games; however, each game was close (L 9-10, W 5-4, W 7-3)...our offense was stymied early in each game...and our pitching (none of our starter could throw strikes, despite facing a team that seldom walked and had poor plate discipline) and defense was sub-par throughout the series. Here was my comprehensive preview and writeup from that previous series, with most of the analysis still relevant...

http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=631803

Since our series several weeks back, UAB lost 2 of 3 games at Houston, beat #31 Troy in a mid-weeker, and copped it's lone road series victory of the season at Tulane. They come into the tournament with an overall 22 - 34 record (7-17 in CUSA, 7-17 on the road, but a respectable 4-4 vs. Top 50 and 6-11 vs. Top 100). Their national rankings are #170 in RPI, #182 ISR and a solid #86 in Strength of Schedule (vs. Rice's rankings of #45 RPI, #29 ISR, #94 SoS). Here is UAB's schedule/results over their first 56 games...

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2013/schedule/UAB

Offensively, the Blazers are hitting .260/.346/.330 as a team, with just 9 HRs, and averaging 1.8 extrabase hits and 4.1 runs per game. They rank next to last in the conference in virtually every offensive category, despite RF Ryan Prinzing being amongst the conference leaders. Prinzing (.337/.446/.458, 3 HRs, 12 doubles/triples, 30 RBIs) and John Frost (.332/.399/.467, 2 HRs, 21 doubles/triples, 38 RBIs) continue to lead the way for UAB, but it was the left-handed bats of Prinzing, Jeff Schalk (.211/.304/,261) and Harry Clark (.266/.370/.288) who inflicted the most damage against our right-handed starting pitchers. UAB hitters have struck out just over 100 times more frequently than they've received free passes (BBs, HBPs). Frost and DeJesus are their two basestealing threats, with 10 SBs apiece.

Defensively, the Blazers are solid, posting a .964 fielding percentage. However, the left side of the infield has committed 35 errors (SS Bryant with 17 errors and 3B Frost with 16 errors), and could be an area of vulnerability. I can see Cook, Byrd and Stringer occassionally trying to bunt for hits when nobody is on base ahead of them. Having said that, I don't see us running the way we did against Marshall, since their catchers (German, Clark) have done an excellent job throwing out basestealers (48% caught stealing), and have only allowed 6 passed balls on the season.

Even with their offensive struggles, UAB's biggest disappointment this year has been with the pitching, which ranks dead last in the conference in all major categories. For the year, the across-the-board numbers are downright ugly: 5.44 ERA, .277 BAA, 1.56 strikeout:walk ratio, and averaging just 6 Ks/game. My previous preview (see above) provides the more detailed analysis on the pitchers we're likely to face, but suffice it to say that their best pitcher statistically (closer and Jr RHP Chase Mallard) has an ERA of 3.83 and BAA of .271, and their best starter has an ERA of 4.28 (BAA of .264). Both of their left-handers (Kelley, Lee) started against us and both stranded a ton of runners. None of their pitcher are big strikeout guys, so I hope we show the same patience we did against Marshall this past weekend.

Here are UAB's individual/team stats...
http://www.uabsports.com/sports/m-basebl...mcume.html

...and CUSA-only stats (both individual and team-- just keep scrolling to find what you're looking for)...
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/c-us...ats-13.pdf

We are clearly the superior team here. Whereas UAB is the second worse offensive team and the worst pitching team in the conference, Rice leads the conference in most pitching and offensive categories. We simply need to play quality baseball-- keep the free passes (BBs, HBPs) and errors to a bare minimum, and offensively, execute and put together a high frequency of quality at bats. Let's get the tournament off to a good start, and build momentum heading into our revenge games against UCF (Thursday at 7:00pm) and Memphis (Saturday at 11:00am). Go Owls!

So any predictions on our pitching rotation for this week? It seems pretty obvious that we're going to be a 2/3 seed in the NCAA's, so at least this year there won't be any need to consider holding out AK in the regional opener. The big question really will be who will be our #2 game starter?

I'll take a stab that whatever we do this weekend is also going to be our regional approach. And since Simms has the best chance of perhaps relieving in a first game and coming back to start later in the tournament, I'm thinking AK, Stephens, Simms for the first three games?

(05-20-2013 08:08 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  So any predictions on our pitching rotation for this week? It seems pretty obvious that we're going to be a 2/3 seed in the NCAA's, so at least this year there won't be any need to consider holding out AK in the regional opener. The big question really will be who will be our #2 game starter?

I'll take a stab that whatever we do this weekend is also going to be our regional approach. And since Simms has the best chance of perhaps relieving in a first game and coming back to start later in the tournament, I'm thinking AK, Stephens, Simms for the first three games?

That's precisely what The OG indicated during tonight's radio show. No reason to change things now. Also, he mentioned that the reason for AK's wildness in the UAB series was that the mound was mud, and Austin couldn't find his footing.

Also, Wayne indicated that as the #1 seed, we got the choice which day we got off, and he picked Friday to give Lemond maximum rest. Sounds like he plans to ride Zech from here on out.

(05-20-2013 08:53 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  That's precisely what The OG indicated during tonight's radio show. No reason to change things now. Also, he mentioned that the reason for AK's wildness in the UAB series was that the mound was mud, and Austin couldn't find his footing.

Also, Wayne indicated that as the #1 seed, we got the choice which day we got off, and he picked Friday to give Lemond maximum rest. Sounds like he plans to ride Zech from here on out.

Thanks for the notes from the radio.

BTW, not that it's any surprise, but Memphis has already announced it's rotation for the tourney-- Sam Moll will face off against UCF's Ben Lively in the opener, but Jr LHP Erik Schoenrock (the coach's son) will be held back for the Saturday game against us....

Schoenrock (Jr, LHP): 14 starts, 7-3, 96.2 IP, 2.51 ERA, .214 BAA, 25 BBs, 85 Ks

...two weeks ago, against us at Reckling, he completely shut us down, pitching a complete game, 6-hitter, with the lone run unearned: 9.0 IP, 6 hits (all singles), 1 unearned run, 1 BB, 7 Ks

Jordan Stephens matched him pitch by pitch until a couple costly errors did him/us in in the 6th inning. If I recall correctly, we were first pitch swinging from beginning to end, and were hitting ground ball after ground ball after ground ball. Hopefully, we took film of that game (pretty sure we do so for all home games), and our batters recognize they've got to change their approach at the plate this time round if they expect dramatically different results.

As I mentioned in another thread, with Ben Lively pitching the opener, I would expect UCF to go with RS Sr LHP Chris Matulis against us on Thursday...

Matulis (RS Sr LHP): 18 app, 10 starts, 5-4, 1 save, 81.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, .279 BAA, 40 BBs, 16 HBP, 64 Ks

...significant control issues, and mediocre at best stats, but as a southpaw, he had his way against us at Reckling back on April 12th, despite walking 8 batters: 8.0 IP, 7 hits, 1 run, 8 BBs, 1 HBP, 4 Ks...we left 13 runners on base in that game.

No word yet who UAB will throw against us, but don't be surprised if it's one of their two left-handers, neither of whom have particularly good stats (and that's being kind); not that that has mattered much when we face ANY left-hander.

It's due time to our batters figured out this southpaw pitching puzzle/hex/rubic cube, or we're in for a very short post-season...and a very long weekend upcoming.

Will the Owls be practicing exclusively (or substantially) against left-handed pitching leading up to the tourney?

If not, why not, given our rather dramatic inability to hit southpaws (and off-speed hurlers, for that matter) this (and recent) years?

I'm not sure how that would be possible Mike. The only lefty throwers (pitchers and coaches) are: Fox, McNair and Williamson.

(05-21-2013 01:30 PM)Almadenmike Wrote:  Will the Owls be practicing exclusively (or substantially) against left-handed pitching leading up to the tourney?

If not, why not, given our rather dramatic inability to hit southpaws (and off-speed hurlers, for that matter) this (and recent) years?

Calling Brown, Teranna (sp), and/or Matheny...

Here are the UAB tournament notes...

http://www.uabsports.com/sports/m-basebl...13aab.html

Rather than throw one of their two left-handers against us, the Blazers have announced that their Wednesday starter will be their best pitcher statistically, despite the fact that he has been their closer for most of the year...

Jr RHP Chase Mallard: 20 app, 3 starts, 2-3, 3 saves, 51.2 IP, 3.83 ERA, .271 BAA, 20 BBs, 43 Ks

Average stats, for sure, but he is the best UAB has to offer. It allows The OG to go with the lineup which worked so effectively against Marshall. The one question mark is whether he starts Fox at 1B, or holds him back for bullpen duties on Day 1. My guess is that he will start at 1B since we're almost surely going to face southpaw starting pitching our next two games...and we will most likely need Blake's left-handed pitching against UCF's left-handed laden lineup.