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Marshall Baseball Preview-- Closing Up & Down Season with a Strong Finishing Kick
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Marshall Baseball Preview-- Closing Up & Down Season with a Strong Finishing Kick
With the regular season coming to a close this weekend (with home games vs. Marshall at Reckling scheduled for 6:30pm CT on both Thursday and Friday evenings, and 1:00pm on Saturday), it's now or never for the Rice baseball team. Having slid out of the Top 20 in all the national polls, with an RPI of only #43 (and not likely to improve this weekend even with a sweep over Marshall), and two games back in the loss column in the CUSA standings, we find ouselves in the unfamiliar position of being squarely on the post-season bubble. Not only is our 17-year conference championship streak on the line (though we do still have the CUSA tournament at The Reck to fall back on), but so too are our current 18-year streaks of both participating in the post-season and winning 40 games. This has certainly been a roller coaster of a season for the Owls; one in which we have struggled mightily to find consistency from game to game, week to week, and pitching start to pitching start...and the inconsistency has occurred in all three aspects of the game-- pitching, defense and offense-- and has been experienced by even the very best players on the team. Fortunately, we still have time to turn this season around, and we certainly have the talent to do so. However, the time is now, beginning this weekend against a weak Marshall team, and continuing next week during the conference tournament. It's time to finally put it together and play up to our capabilities and potential. Let's rise to the occassion and get it done!

Marshall comes into town riding a big, emotional mid-week win over arch-rival West Virgina. However, this has been yet another disappointing season for The Herd. Their overall record is just 20 - 31 (9-21 on the road, 6-15 in CUSA, 5-9 vs. Top 100, 6-16 vs. Top 101-200, and only 9-6 vs. 201+ RPI teams), with national rankings of #226 in RPI, #215 ISR and #170 in Strength of Schedule. Their best wins of the season were against #63 UH x 2. #98 West Virginia x 2, and #74 ECU x 1. Having said that, they do have a legitimate ace pitcher and likely first round draft pick in Jr RHP Aaron Blair (who has posted 3 shutouts this year), a couple quality relievers, and one likely all-conference position player in Sr CFer Isaac Ballou. A detailed scouting report on Aaron Blair is provided below (courtesy of Perfect Game). Here is Marshall's schedule/results over their first 51 games...
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2013/schedule/Marshall

and here's the Marshall game notes for the upcoming series...
http://www.herdzone.com/sports/m-basebl/...13aaa.html
....and what a surprise-- instead of starting their ace against Austin Kubitza in the opener, they're going with one of their two left-handed pitchers on the staff with more than 5.0 IP on the year. (Opposing coaches clearly have the scouting report on the Owls, and it calls for a steady diet of southpaw pitching. Quite honestly, until we show we can muster a semblance of an attack against left-handed pitching, I would not be surprised if we see only southpaw pitching starting against us in the conference tournament.) Blair (who has a current streak of 10 consecutive quality starts of 6+ innings pitched and allowing 3 or fewer runs) will go against Jordan Stephens on Friday, and I suspect the series finale will feature John Simms against one of two Fr RHPs (Michael Taylor or Chase Boster), though if we struggle on Thursday, we could face thier other southpaw (Alex Thackston).

Marshall has struggled offensively, hitting just .260/.339/.336 as a team (and just .248/.330/.320 in CUSA action), with 10 HRs, and averaging 2 extrabase hits and 4.3 runs per game. While Rice is leading CUSA in most offensive categories (if you can believe that!), Marshall is dead last in most categories. Having said that, they are a very good baserunning team (successful in 47-69 stolen base attempts), and are led by a couple speedsters in Isaac Ballou (.325/.438/.433, 19 doubles/triples, 18 RBIs, 39 runs scored, 37 BBs, 12-16 SBs) and Andrew Dundon (.299/.379/.337, 7 doubles, 16 RBIs, 10-13 SBs). This is a very aggressive, free-swinging team with very little plate discipline. Ballo and Nathan Gomez (23 BBs) are the only everyday players with 20+ walks and, as a team, they have racked up only 209 free passes (4 per game) vs. 346 strikeouts...and, remember, these stats are inflated given their weak Strength of Schedule. Seven of their 9 regulars have struck out 30+ times. Their everyday lineup features only two left-handed hitters, BUT they happen to be two of their top three batters (Ballou, Gomez). The matchup clearly favors our right-handed laden pitching staff and, especially, our strikeout pitchers (Kubitza, Stephens, Simms, Lemond)...but we've got to dramatically cut down on the free passes. We have faced other opponents with sub-par plate discipline who suddenly became patient against our pitching staff, and worked out a high frequency of walks. We simply have to do a better job of throwing first pitch strikes and getting ahead in the count.

The Herd have not been a very good defensive club, posting a sub-par .955 fielding percentage. The left-side of the infield has committed 28 errors on the year. Opposing teams have run well and often against them, stealing 83-117 bases. This would appear to be a defense against which we should apply a maximum amount of pressure-- with steal attempts, bunts, taking the extra base, etc.

Given the weak schedule, Marshall's pitching staff has not been very impressive: 4.33 ERA, .251 BAA, 1.7 Strikeout: walk ratio, but a solid 7.1 Ks/game. The numbers are a bit skewed since they only have two pitchers with ERAs below 3.00 (Blair, set-up man Ryan Hopkins), and just two others below 4.40 ERA (closer Josh King, reliever Kyle Kessler)...

Wayland Moore (Sr, LHP): 9 starts, 2-3, 38.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, .252 BAA, 23 BBs, 33 Ks
Aaron Blair (Jr, RHP): 12 starts, 5-4, 79.0 IP, 2.28 ERA, .184 BAA, 31 BBs, 8 HBP, 10 WP, 83 Ks
Michael Taylor (Fr, RHP): 11 starts, 3-5, 46.2 IP, 4.44 ERA, .256 BAA, 26 BBs, 7 HBP, 36 Ks
Alex Thackston (Fr, RHP): 18 app, 8 starts, 1-3, 33.1 IP, 4.86 ERA, .282 BAA, 23 BBs, 20 Ks
Chase Boster (Fr, RHP): 15 app, 9 starts, 3-4, 52.2 IP, 5.98 ERA, .281 BAA, 26 BBs, 10 WP, 30 Ks

Ryan Hopkins (RS Jr, RHP): 21 app, 4-2, 2 saves, 38.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, ..242 BAA, 11 BBs, 34 Ks
Josh King (Jr, RHP): 21 app, 1-3, 6 saves, 29.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, ..243 BAA, 14 BBs, 28 Ks
Kyle Kessler ((RS So, RHP): 17 app, 2 starts, 0-1, 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, .250 BAA, 7 BB, 9 Ks

Blair is leading the conference in strikeouts, and is the only legitimate power pitcher on the staff. He has, however, struggled with his control on occassion, as have others on the staff. (Again, a comprehensive scouting report on Blair and his arsenal is provided below.) It's due time we showed a bit more patience this weekend, and try to increase the frequency of walks received than we have collected over the past couple weeks. With Blair going in Game 2, we can ill-afford to have our offense go into it's usual hibernation against left-handed pitching in the opener. Moore is a sub-par pitcher who we cannot turn into Sandy Koufax against us. One would hope that we are smart enough to change our approach somewhat when facing southpaw pitching. We cannot keep repeating the same approach and suddenly expect dramatically different results. Time to break this mental stranglehold left-handed pitchers have against us.

Here's The Herd's individual/team stats year-to-date...
http://www.herdzone.com/sports/m-basebl/...mcume.html

We are where we are; we cannot change the results of the past 51 games. However, we have the power-- and the talent-- to change the course going forward, and still achieve all of our preseason goals. A conference championship and post-season birth are still within our grasps...and we still control our own destiny...but we need to start streaking now through the conference tournament, beginning with a sweep of Marshall this weekend. Despite Marshall's record and rankings, it will not be easy-- we have to break through our struggles vs. southpaw pitching on Thursday, and then find a way to best one of the most highly regarded draft prospects in the country on Friday. And we have to regain our home field advantage after losing back-to-back home weekend series (vs. UCF and Memphis). Time to answer the bell, and close the regular season with a strong finishing kick, which we could then (hopefully) carry into the conference tournament and post-season. Just win, baby! Go Owls!



Kendall Rogers/Perfect Game picked Marshall to finish 6th in the conference (ahead of UH, Memphis and UAB), and included RHP Aaron Blair on their preseason all-conference team (as well as considering him the #1 2013 draft prospect in CUSA)...
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=7957
Quote:* Marshall aims to take a step forward this spring, but it's a chore that won't be easy to accomplish. The good news first for the Thundering Herd. They welcome back an offensive lineup that should be much improved. Marshall finished last season with a weak .263 batting average, but welcome back their top six hitters, including first baseman Nate Gomez and Isaac Ballou, who each finished last season with batting averages better than .305 with a combined 64 RBIs. Meanwhile, the pitching staff might be a different story outside of outstanding junior right-hander Aaron Blair. Blair could very well end up being the best pitcher in C-USA this spring. He blew up over the summer at the Cape Cod League, sitting comfortably 88-93 with his fastball, while he threw a plus change and good curveball. Otherwise, the Thundering Herd will start two freshmen in the rotation, including Michael Taylor, who projects well with an 87-92 fastball. Taylor must be more consistent this spring. Also keep an eye on sophomore righty Lance Elder, who consistently sits 86-90 with his FB ... In terms of breakout players to watch, the Thundering Herd have two good young position players in third baseman Aaron Bossi and outfielder Isaac Ballou.


Eric "Stitchhead" Sorenson was spot-on (for once!) in ranking Marshall #206th in their preseason countdown, and picked them to finish dead last in the conference...
http://www.collegebaseballtoday.com/2013...rence-usa/
Quote:- MARSHALL (17-37, 5-19)
2012 ISR: 221

Starters Returning: 7
Weekend Starters: 2
Mid-Week Starters: 0
Key Relievers (15+inns.): 3

All Conference Candidates:
1B Nathan Gomez (.316-3-39)
OF Issac Ballou (.308-2-24, 21SBs)
SS Sergio Leon (.302)
RHP Aaron Blair (2-8, 3.98, .238OBA)
RHP Josh King (2-5, 2.30, 23apps, .250OBA)

NOTES:
- In last year’s preview on the Herd I wrote “Unless the new crop of frosh and transfers comes up huge, this year may be even more of an uphill struggle.” Well ya’ dern tootin’ I was right. Randy Moss U. hit rock bottom in the CUSA standings again and saw their ISR ranking plummet from 2011′s 187 down to last year’s 221.

- Getting Friday ace Aaron Blair back will give the Herd a chance to win every opening game of the weekend. Blair had a bang-em-up summer in the prestigious Cape Cod League last summer, posting 6-0, 1.17 numbers for the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox. The big problem comes in trying to find capable Saturday and Sunday guys. Senior LHP Wayland Moore (1-4, 7.90, 9starts) was shoddy at times last season, though he threw well in the fall so look for a much better season.

- RHP Josh King proved to be a reliable bullpenner last year, making 23 appearances on the season. He could move into a starting slot on the weekend if the incoming class doesn’t provide enough workable arms that are ready for CUSA play right away.

- The coaches are very high on incoming frosh Aaron Bossi, who lit up in the fall workouts and scrimmages. He could be a firestarter with his speed and skill at the top of the batting order for the years to come. Also watch for fellow first-year guys like Travis Myers and another speed-merchant Mardu Smith. Also, C Matt Kirkwood led the fall scrimmages with a .500 average. He sat out 2012 with an injury after transferring from Cleveland State. Kirkwood could be the missing lock-down backstop that MU has gone without for a number of years now



Here's a Perfect Game premium content draft focus and scouting report on Jr RHP Aaron Blair...
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=8373
Quote:Aaron Blair Perfect Game profile

Position: RHP
Height: 6-5
Weight: 220
Bats/Throws: R-R
Birthdate: May 26, 1992
College: Marshall
Hometown: Las Vegas, Nev.
Previously Drafted: Astros '10 (21)
Projected Draft Round: 1-2

If not for the presence of Sean Manaea and his historic summer in the Cape Cod League, we might remember 2012 as the summer of Aaron Blair. Of course, he is certainly getting the credit he rightly deserves, and has a strong shot at being picked at the back end of the first round once June rolls around. But, few players did as much to help themselves in one summer in recent memory than Blair did in 2012. And, after enjoying that dominant summer for the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox he’s simply built on that success and perhaps raised his stock even higher this spring.

Although Blair is somewhat new to being talked about in this fashion, he’s not an entirely new commodity on the prospect scene by any stretch of the imagination. Blair’s projectable, 6-foot-5 frame attracted attention out of high school as well, even as his fastball mostly lived in the 86-91 mph range at the time. The right-hander ended up being taken by the Houston Astros in the 21st round in the 2010 draft. Obviously, he opted against pro ball at the time and ending up at Marshall University, a move that looks to have paid off in a big way.

In all fairness to the Thundering Herd, it’s not a program we have come to associate with churning out high round draft picks. Aaron Blair is going to buck that trend - it’s just a matter of how high he goes, but he is just about a lock to become the university’s highest draft pick in school history. And, if you talk to enough people who have watched Blair since day one of his college career, it probably doesn’t surprise them that he has reached this stage. He was named to the Conference-USA All-Freshman team in 2011, and essentially hasn’t looked back since.

The reality, however, is that when you are not playing for a visible, well known collegiate powerhouse, the recognition can take a little longer to attain. But, once you take the field in Cape Cod, the playing field levels. And, Blair didn’t miss the opportunity to take full advantage of his time there.

With tremendous consistency, Blair worked at 90-94 mph with his fastball for Y-D, spotting well and creating a difficult angle with his long arms and 6-foot-5 frame. His long stride, and extension also allowed his fastball to seem to play up a tick or two as well. I had the opportunity to scout a number of Blair starts, and most often I came away with most impressed with his changeup. A straight change at 82-85 mph, Blair keeps his arm speed up very well and locates it down in the zone with consistency. And, he’s not afraid to go to it early in counts or behind in counts. His curveball also flashes above average potential, although it was not quite as consistent as the changeup. He threw it mostly between 75-79 mph, flashing above average 11-to-5 depth.

It was a stellar summer for Blair both in terms of showing the potential for three above average big league pitches, as well as putting up monster numbers. In a summer when the Cape was seemingly taken over by enormous offensive performance, Blair was mostly untouchable for much of the season. He went unbeaten, posting a 6-0 record, a 1.17 ERA, and 44 strikeouts over 38 1/3 innings of work. Those regular season numbers don’t include a 2-0 playoff record for Yarmouth-Dennis, in which he posted a 0.75 ERA in two starts. That playoff record includes a dominant championship series start against the Wareham Gatemen, when he struck out 10 and surrendered only two hits over seven shutout innings.

In other words, Blair didn’t miss any opportunities last summer. There were simply no real missteps in his summer season that included a playoff run and an All-Star game appearance. And, according to scouts in the region, he hasn’t missed any opportunities to build on his already soaring stock this spring. He’s been as high as 96 mph with his fastball, and has shown more consistency with his breaking ball. Through his first eleven starts for the Thundering Herd, he has posted a 2.36 ERA and struck out 78 batters while walking 26 over 72 1/3 innings of work.

Entering this spring, Aaron Blair was likely going to be a top 50 overall draft pick. Now that he’s followed up his big summer and confirmed that how he performed on the Cape was no fluke, he’s in play for the first thirty picks. His extra large, durable frame, loose arm, and feel for two above average secondary pitches all make that case. And, consistently reaching 95-96 mph in front of national level scouts certainly doesn’t hurt a player’s case either. Look for Blair to come off the board between picks 25 and 35
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05-15-2013 09:09 PM
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Post: #2
RE: Marshall Baseball Preview-- Closing Up & Down Season with a Strong Finishing Kick
Herd DH Vogelbach is a year younger and from same high school as a Cubs' 2012 high draft pick. profile says he has only a sister. given rare last name, must be a first cousin.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp...pid=596129
05-16-2013 07:03 AM
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Almadenmike Offline
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RE: Marshall Baseball Preview-- Closing Up & Down Season with a Strong Finishing Kick
(05-16-2013 07:03 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  Herd DH Vogelbach is a year younger and from same high school as a Cubs' 2012 high draft pick. profile says he has only a sister. given rare last name, must be a first cousin.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp...pid=596129

Correct. This article on Bishop Verot High School's 2012 baseball prospects says he is a cousin: http://www.thepigskinreport.com/2012/02/...champions/

Quote:Although they lost the most prolific power hitter ever to come out of Florida in Dan Vogelbach, Coach Nelson still has a team that can hit. Nicholas Rivera, an FGCU commit, provides the power that Dan Vogelbach brought to the team last year. Rivera, who is a senior, is a strong kid that can go deep at any given time. He is a solid infielder as well. Rivera can play both third base and second base. Another strong hitter is Chase Vogelbach. Yes, another Vogelbach to play for the Vikings of Verot. Chase is Dan Vogelbach’s cousin. Although he may not provide the power of Dan, Chase can still hit the long ball, as well as spread it all over the field. Chase, who will be attending Marshall University on a baseball scholarship, also provides speed. He can run a 6.7 60 yd. dash. Chase is also a player on the FTB team Pride.

Also, this from Twitter: https://twitter.com/Flowbro3/status/329631555133792257
(This post was last modified: 05-16-2013 01:12 PM by Almadenmike.)
05-16-2013 01:10 PM
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