waltgreenberg
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I Root For: Rice Owls
Location: Chicago
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RE: Reduced interest in Rice baseball?
(05-13-2013 08:35 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: Walt - I actually feel you're a big part of the problem.
I'm just being honest - you need to tone down your top-10 rhetoric. Unless we make a miraculous post-season run, we will not come close to being a top-10 team in the preseason polls next year.
And there's nothing wrong with that.
I appreciate your enthusiasm but why don't you try lowering your expectations just a bit based on the past 2 1/2 seasons of results, and maybe be pleasantly surprised if we actually surpass your goals instead of under-achieving?
(05-13-2013 06:31 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (05-13-2013 05:07 PM)owlsfan Wrote: I feel it; it is tangible. We have slipped from being an annual national power and threat to get to the CWS to an interesting 2 or 3 seed possibility. You love your school; you support and admire its athletes, (who actually go to class and excel on the field), but it is just harder to get excited.
And pardon my pessimism, but this is a pitching based team that has its top pitchers walking out the door (and into nice pro contracts, I would guess) when this season ends.
This is a baseball team with eight hitters who could hit in the #1 or #2 hole, but not in the #3, #4 or #5 slots, and who cannot run (at a 63% SB success percentage, we would be better off if we never attempted a SB-we are giving up more value in the extra outs when we are caught then we are getting in the extra base when we are successful). We run into way too many outs, mistaking aggression as a virtue when the risk is not worth the reward. This is a team built to scratch out 2-1 wins, but which has trouble prevailing when the poor starter gives up a few runs.
I believe the FB team will have a higher winning percentage in 2013 than the baseball team will (2013 or 2014). I never thought I would say that about Rice.
First off, though I know several others disagree with me, I still believe there is a pretty good chance that Kubitza is the only one of our primary pitchers to move on after this season. I'd be very surprised if McDowell does not return (unless he has already earned his degree) and I still think there's better than a 50-50 shot that John Simms returns for his Senior year (given the scouts are not particularly enamored with his stuff). And on offense, I think there's a very good chance that everyone returns save for Perrott, Stringer and Ratterree, all of whom have used up their eligibility. If all this occurs, we will quite likely enter next season as a preseason Top 10 team-- with Simms, Stephens, McCanna. McDowell, Lemond, Fox, Ditman and Rutter all returning on the pitching staff, along with Ewing, Teykl, Fox, Hunter K., Hoelscher, Stainback, Cook, Byrd and Aquino as position players.
As for this season, my interest has not waned, nor has my hope that we exceed expectations over the next month. This team has the talent and potential, but has underachieved so far as best reflected in a lack of consistency. We are a much better defensive team than we've displayed over the past several weeks, and our ace is a much better pitcher than he's been the second half of the season.
Yes, recruiting has been a bit down the past couple years (though I do think this year's Freshman class will yet prove to be one of our best), but we do have a couple elite potential, albeit raw talent committed for this year's incoming class, and next year's recruiting class is shaping up to be one of our most highly regarded ever (if we can get them to show up on campus).
Those claiming we're no longer considered a national power are being way too critical and cynical, IMO. That is most certainly not the perception of those who closely follow college baseball on a national level.
FBO, I strongly disagree. Post-season performance has absolutely nothing to do with how the pundits rank teams the following preseason. Rather, preseason polling is based on a combination of: (1) how many key players from the previous season have departed, and (2) how many returning, experienced and proven players are on the roster. If we lose only AK from the pitching staff and Perrott/Stringer/Rat from the lineup, we're going to be one of the deepest teams in the country with regard to proven, returning talent-- both in the pitching staff and the everyday lineup...and many of those returnees will be building off their first full year of D-1 action (including Byrd, McCanna, Ewing, Fox, Teykl, Ditman, Rutter and even Aquino). How many programs would have 3 pitchers of the caliber of Simms, Stephens and Lemond returning (and I could throw Fox and McDowell into that mix, as well)? How many teams would have four proven hitters (Aquino, Cook, Hoelscher, Stainback) returning, along with three others (Ewing, Byrd and Teykl) which most of us expect to become future stars?
Again, still a big IF with regards to both Simms and Aquino, but again, I think all things considered, the odds are better than 50-50 that both will be returning for their Senior campaign. And if they both return, I'll bet you right now (you name the wager) that we'll be preseason Top 10 - 15, regardless to how we fare in the post-season.
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