Well as of today, after the Memphis series, some of the pundits (Fitt, Etheridge, Kendall) still believe us to be in the field of 64 -- see their latest regional prognostications.

(05-15-2013 11:26 AM)grol Wrote:  Well as of today, after the Memphis series, some of the pundits (Fitt, Etheridge, Kendall) still believe us to be in the field of 64 -- see their latest regional prognostications.

Some? What pundit has us out of the field?

Heck, even the most anti-Rice amongs the national pundits (e.g., Brian Foley/College Baseball Daily, Chasingomaha.com) issued updated projections yesterday with Rice still as a #2 seed.

Boyd has us #43 today in the RPI.

Marshall, at 20-31, is #226.

And winning out to stay top 45. I suspect we're right on the razor's edge of top 45 depending on what breaks what way. Of course, that would be if there were no Conf Tourneys, which there of course are and which will further shake things up. Right now though we need to (1) win out to keep our best at-large hopes alive; (2) win the conf tourney for the guarantee; (3) root against teams that are outside the top 45 in their respective conf tourneys.

(05-15-2013 12:30 PM)At Ease Wrote:  Boyd has us #43 today in the RPI.

Marshall, at 20-31, is #226.

(05-15-2013 11:26 AM)grol Wrote:  Well as of today, after the Memphis series, some of the pundits (Fitt, Etheridge, Kendall) still believe us to be in the field of 64 -- see their latest regional prognostications.

Some??? Everyone still have us in the post-season field. Heck, even the most anti-Rice amongs the national pundits (e.g., Brian Foley/College Baseball Daily, Chasingomaha.com) issued updated projections yesterday with Rice still as a #2 seed.

(05-16-2013 09:03 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-15-2013 11:26 AM)grol Wrote:  Well as of today, after the Memphis series, some of the pundits (Fitt, Etheridge, Kendall) still believe us to be in the field of 64 -- see their latest regional prognostications.

Some??? Everyone still have us in the post-season field. Heck, even the most anti-Rice amongs the national pundits (e.g., Brian Foley/College Baseball Daily, Chasingomaha.com) issued updated projections yesterday with Rice still as a #2 seed.

(05-16-2013 10:30 AM)grol Wrote:  

(05-16-2013 09:03 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-15-2013 11:26 AM)grol Wrote:  Well as of today, after the Memphis series, some of the pundits (Fitt, Etheridge, Kendall) still believe us to be in the field of 64 -- see their latest regional prognostications.

Some??? Everyone still have us in the post-season field. Heck, even the most anti-Rice amongs the national pundits (e.g., Brian Foley/College Baseball Daily, Chasingomaha.com) issued updated projections yesterday with Rice still as a #2 seed.

Lord help us ... bragging / arguing over being a # 2 seed somewhere other than The Reck.

This morning, our RPI is #44 (0.5486) on Warren Nolan's site, and our Boyd's World pseudo-RPI is #45 -- really T42 (0.549) with Troy, Creighton & Notre Dame.

(05-17-2013 07:05 AM)Almadenmike Wrote:  This morning, our RPI is #44 (0.5486) on Warren Nolan's site, and our Boyd's World pseudo-RPI is #45 -- really T42 (0.549) with Troy, Creighton & Notre Dame.

Boyd's ranking is the more accurate. Right now wins and conference standings are more important than RPI for us. If we sweep Marshall and capture a share of the conference regular season title, I think we're a lock for an at large bid, regardless to how we fare in the conference tourney. If we don't win a share of the regular season title, I think we need to win at least 2 of 3 games next week in the tourney to feel safe (whether we sweep Marshall or just win 2 of 3). Bottom line-- first things first, we MUST win this weekend's series, and a sweep would certainly give us a bit of breathing room. Even a single loss to Marshall would drop our RPI into the ominous bubble range of 50+.

FWIW, as of the end of last weekend (when we slipped to 47 in Boyd's), we were sitting at 46 in the official rankings. The official rankings come out every Tuesday: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1

Still sitting at .549 but have slipped to 48 on Boyd's. Meanwhile A&M and SHSU have moved past us. A&M did it on the back of wins at a roughed-up Tennessee.

No light at the end of the tunnel on the needs report, but that will possibly change once we have our round-robin set for the tourney.

(05-18-2013 09:39 AM)texd Wrote:  Still sitting at .549 but have slipped to 48 on Boyd's. Meanwhile A&M and SHSU have moved past us. A&M did it on the back of wins at a roughed-up Tennessee.

No light at the end of the tunnel on the needs report, but that will possibly change once we have our round-robin set for the tourney.

Again, RPI is totally irrelevant at this point (for us). No one amongst the pundits-- even the most anti-Rice-- consider us on the post-season bubble (with our overall record and exceptional road record). So long as we win today and cop at least a share of the conference championship, we're in as a #2 or #3 seed-- even if our RPI rises to 50+. You do realizemost pundits still consider Stanford a bubble team, and their RPI now sits at #93.

From Fitt today:

Quote:Of note: Houston has managed to resuscitate its at-large hopes with three straight series wins (at Tulane, vs UAB, vs. Southern Miss) to end the regular season. The Cougars are now. No. 54 in the RPI, and 13-10 in C-USA—not exactly sitting pretty, but alive. The Owls (No. 48 in the RPI and 14-9 in C-USA) are in slightly better position, but a Conference USA title would be a huge boost to a Rice resume that does not feature a single win against a top 50 team (0-4).

Our great road record this year came at opportune time with the changes in RPI. It would be interesting to see the change in RPI under the previous formula (with no bonus for road wins) vs this years.

(05-18-2013 09:56 AM)grol Wrote:  From Fitt today:

Quote:Of note: Houston has managed to resuscitate its at-large hopes with three straight series wins (at Tulane, vs UAB, vs. Southern Miss) to end the regular season. The Cougars are now. No. 54 in the RPI, and 13-10 in C-USA—not exactly sitting pretty, but alive. The Owls (No. 48 in the RPI and 14-9 in C-USA) are in slightly better position, but a Conference USA title would be a huge boost to a Rice resume that does not feature a single win against a top 50 team (0-4).

Of course, UH winning a few more and getting into the top 50 will help that last stat as well.

(05-18-2013 09:56 AM)grol Wrote:  From Fitt today:

Quote:Of note: Houston has managed to resuscitate its at-large hopes with three straight series wins (at Tulane, vs UAB, vs. Southern Miss) to end the regular season. The Cougars are now. No. 54 in the RPI, and 13-10 in C-USA—not exactly sitting pretty, but alive. The Owls (No. 48 in the RPI and 14-9 in C-USA) are in slightly better position, but a Conference USA title would be a huge boost to a Rice resume that does not feature a single win against a top 50 team (0-4).

I think my biggest surprise with that record against top 50s, is not the 0 in the win column, but that we have only played 4 games against the Top 50 this year. Sheesh. When was the last time we had such a weak schedule in terms of top 50 competition?

(05-18-2013 11:38 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(05-18-2013 09:56 AM)grol Wrote:  From Fitt today:

Quote:Of note: Houston has managed to resuscitate its at-large hopes with three straight series wins (at Tulane, vs UAB, vs. Southern Miss) to end the regular season. The Cougars are now. No. 54 in the RPI, and 13-10 in C-USA—not exactly sitting pretty, but alive. The Owls (No. 48 in the RPI and 14-9 in C-USA) are in slightly better position, but a Conference USA title would be a huge boost to a Rice resume that does not feature a single win against a top 50 team (0-4).

I think my biggest surprise with that record against top 50s, is not the 0 in the win column, but that we have only played 4 games against the Top 50 this year. Sheesh. When was the last time we had such a weak schedule in terms of top 50 competition?

That's because of the down years by Stanford, Baylor, A&M, USM, UCF and ECU. Our schedule worked badly against us this year. On of those things you simply cannot plan for.

(05-18-2013 09:45 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-18-2013 09:39 AM)texd Wrote:  Still sitting at .549 but have slipped to 48 on Boyd's. Meanwhile A&M and SHSU have moved past us. A&M did it on the back of wins at a roughed-up Tennessee.

No light at the end of the tunnel on the needs report, but that will possibly change once we have our round-robin set for the tourney.

Again, RPI is totally irrelevant at this point (for us). No one amongst the pundits-- even the most anti-Rice-- consider us on the post-season bubble (with our overall record and exceptional road record). So long as we win today and cop at least a share of the conference championship, we're in as a #2 or #3 seed-- even if our RPI rises to 50+. You do realizemost pundits still consider Stanford a bubble team, and their RPI now sits at #93.

When the pundits get all the picks right, I'll believe that this or that is irrelevant. BTW, being a #3 necessarily means being at least somewhat of a bubble team. #4s are (almost) always Auto-Bids... thus the reason people talk top 45 rather than top 50, 60, or 64.