The more things change, the more they stay the same. In the beginning of the BCS era, the 6 autobid conferences plus ND totaled 63 schools. Of those 63 schools, only Temple is not in a conference whose champion gets.an automatic place in the playoffs. In addition there are 3.schools.who were conferences.that didn't receive an autobid. Louisville of the ACC, TCU of the Big 12, and Utah of the PAC 12.

For all of the machinations of realignment, there has been almost no change in the top group. Only Temple, who was expelled from the Big East failed to make in into the top tier.

The number of conferences has contracted from 6 to 5. But the number of teams has grown by 2. Assuming the next evolution is to consolidate into 4 conferences. At 16 members per conference plus ND you are still at 65.

It seems even if another conference is eliminated, they are just rearranging the furniture. This is good news for the existing top 5 and bad news for aspiring schools.like UConn and Cinci. Their best hope is to get into the B12 to get them to 12 members.

if they went to the 4 by 16 teams thing some big 12 teams or UConn/cincy/usf/ucf could be left out .

(05-07-2013 01:28 PM)Chris02M Wrote:  if they went to the 4 by 16 teams thing some big 12 teams or UConn/cincy/usf/ucf could be left out .

This is true. Iowa State shouls be very worried if that happens. The Texoma 4 would likely move to the PAC 12. WVU probably lands in the ACC or SEC. Kansas is probably B1G bound. The SEC might try to grab TCU for the Dallas - Ft Worth market. Then maybe take KSU. Baylor might get into the SEC instead of TCU. The question becomes does the ACC take WVU or go with a Cinci / UConn combo? If they take WVU do they take Cinci or UConn?

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Nah, according to the "conventional wisdom" on the WVU Scout Realignment Board, the only thing that the ACC GOR did was "kick the can down the road."

By signing the GOR, the ACC schools allegedly acted against their own best financial interests and will only fall further behind the SEC, Pac 12 and Big Ten in revenues.

The only thing, according to this belief, that the ACC GOR actually did was also potentially doom the Big 12.

If the Big 12 can just hang on (because they will make more than the ACC but less than the others) until the ACC GOR expires, the Big 12 will then move to absorb the best 6 schools of the ACC.

Try to keep up, guys......

(05-07-2013 02:29 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Nah, according to the "conventional wisdom" on the WVU Scout Realignment Board, the only thing that the ACC GOR did was "kick the can down the road."

By signing the GOR, the ACC schools allegedly acted against their own best financial interests and will only fall further behind the SEC, Pac 12 and Big Ten in revenues.

The only thing, according to this belief, that the ACC GOR actually did was also potentially doom the Big 12.

If the Big 12 can just hang on (because they will make more than the ACC but less than the others) until the ACC GOR expires, the Big 12 will then move to absorb the best 6 schools of the ACC.

Try to keep up, guys......

All of which supports my observation that if there is further consolidation, it will still be mostly churn at the top and very little upward mobility.

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(05-07-2013 02:29 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Nah, according to the "conventional wisdom" on the WVU Scout Realignment Board, the only thing that the ACC GOR did was "kick the can down the road."

By signing the GOR, the ACC schools allegedly acted against their own best financial interests and will only fall further behind the SEC, Pac 12 and Big Ten in revenues.

The only thing, according to this belief, that the ACC GOR actually did was also potentially doom the Big 12.

If the Big 12 can just hang on (because they will make more than the ACC but less than the others) until the ACC GOR expires, the Big 12 will then move to absorb the best 6 schools of the ACC.

Try to keep up, guys......

I got banned from the conference realignment board for saying this.

(05-07-2013 07:09 PM)gocards#1 Wrote:  

(05-07-2013 02:29 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Nah, according to the "conventional wisdom" on the WVU Scout Realignment Board, the only thing that the ACC GOR did was "kick the can down the road."

By signing the GOR, the ACC schools allegedly acted against their own best financial interests and will only fall further behind the SEC, Pac 12 and Big Ten in revenues.

The only thing, according to this belief, that the ACC GOR actually did was also potentially doom the Big 12.

If the Big 12 can just hang on (because they will make more than the ACC but less than the others) until the ACC GOR expires, the Big 12 will then move to absorb the best 6 schools of the ACC.

Try to keep up, guys......

I got banned from the conference realignment board for saying this.

TerryD is only repeating what's being said

One irrefutable rebuttal to this line of thinking is that the B12 GOR is going to run out two years, I believe, before the ACC's. This will give the B1G, SEC and P12 a chance to make a run at Texas, OU, OSU, KU and TTU before the ACC even comes back into play.

The success of the various conference networks is going to be key in all of this. If the ACC Network is a big success, the current TV deal and GOR are likely to be extended well in advance of the current expiry, at a significant increase in the profit share to conference members in exchange for the extension.

(05-07-2013 07:36 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(05-07-2013 07:09 PM)gocards#1 Wrote:  

(05-07-2013 02:29 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Nah, according to the "conventional wisdom" on the WVU Scout Realignment Board, the only thing that the ACC GOR did was "kick the can down the road."

By signing the GOR, the ACC schools allegedly acted against their own best financial interests and will only fall further behind the SEC, Pac 12 and Big Ten in revenues.

The only thing, according to this belief, that the ACC GOR actually did was also potentially doom the Big 12.

If the Big 12 can just hang on (because they will make more than the ACC but less than the others) until the ACC GOR expires, the Big 12 will then move to absorb the best 6 schools of the ACC.

Try to keep up, guys......

I got banned from the conference realignment board for saying this.

TerryD is only repeating what's being said

One irrefutable rebuttal to this line of thinking is that the B12 GOR is going to run out two years, I believe, before the ACC's. This will give the B1G, SEC and P12 a chance to make a run at Texas, OU, OSU, KU and TTU before the ACC even comes back into play.

The success of the various conference networks is going to be key in all of this. If the ACC Network is a big success, the current TV deal and GOR are likely to be extended well in advance of the current expiry, at a significant increase in the profit share to conference members in exchange for the extension.

A lot of WVU fans are just upset the are on an Island...my advice...deal with it...