(04-12-2013 08:46 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(04-12-2013 07:15 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I have been skeptical of those projections since 2010.

There was a newspaper article that showed the number being bragged about as coming from the BTN was actually ALL Big Ten revenue sources, not just the BTN.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/i...0f31a.html

The B1G should enjoy a very generous bump (more thant $10 millin per school) when it's ABC contract runs out in 2016. It should be able to offer a similar number of games to the P12 and B12 packages and still have plenty of inventory for the BTN. I look for a split package between FOX and ESPN as we've seen in some other recent deals.

With respect to the BTN, it seems to me like they have achieved their target penetrations in their historic territory. Am I wrong about that?. If I'm right, it's not clear to me how much upside the BTN really has. The NJ/MD thing is a long term play at best. The BTN will likely have to discount substantially to get meaningful penetrations in those markets.

That was a joke, right? I don't see any way they get anything like that.

(04-12-2013 10:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-12-2013 08:46 PM)orangefan Wrote:  The B1G should enjoy a very generous bump (more thant $10 millin per school) when it's ABC contract runs out in 2016. It should be able to offer a similar number of games to the P12 and B12 packages and still have plenty of inventory for the BTN. I look for a split package between FOX and ESPN as we've seen in some other recent deals.

With respect to the BTN, it seems to me like they have achieved their target penetrations in their historic territory. Am I wrong about that?. If I'm right, it's not clear to me how much upside the BTN really has. The NJ/MD thing is a long term play at best. The BTN will likely have to discount substantially to get meaningful penetrations in those markets.

That was a joke, right? I don't see any way they get anything like that.

I don't think it's unreasonable. Unless ESPN and Fox make no effort to keep the Big 10 from NBC.

I can't find the numbers on what the Big 10 is getting from their current ESPN deal but you probably have that information available.

Just based on when they signed it 2006 and how much the market has jumped since then, $10 or more sounds about right. And they're new contract will probably end before the current ACC deal.

(04-13-2013 02:01 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-12-2013 10:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-12-2013 08:46 PM)orangefan Wrote:  The B1G should enjoy a very generous bump (more thant $10 millin per school) when it's ABC contract runs out in 2016. It should be able to offer a similar number of games to the P12 and B12 packages and still have plenty of inventory for the BTN. I look for a split package between FOX and ESPN as we've seen in some other recent deals.

With respect to the BTN, it seems to me like they have achieved their target penetrations in their historic territory. Am I wrong about that?. If I'm right, it's not clear to me how much upside the BTN really has. The NJ/MD thing is a long term play at best. The BTN will likely have to discount substantially to get meaningful penetrations in those markets.

That was a joke, right? I don't see any way they get anything like that.

I don't think it's unreasonable. Unless ESPN and Fox make no effort to keep the Big 10 from NBC.

I can't find the numbers on what the Big 10 is getting from their current ESPN deal but you probably have that information available.

Just based on when they signed it 2006 and how much the market has jumped since then, $10 or more sounds about right. And they're new contract will probably end before the current ACC deal.

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/705/

$1,000,000,000/10years=$100,000,000/year
$72,000,000/6years=$12,000,000/year
$145,000,000/6years=$24,166,667/year
TOTAL: $100,000,000/yr+$12,000,000/yr+$24,166,667/yr=$136,166,667/year
PER TEAM TOTAL: $136,166,667/year/12teams=$11,347,222/team*
PERCENT INCREASE: $10,000,000/$11,347,222=88.1%

Do you think that the B1G's best games have increased in value by 88.1% over the last 9 years?** If so, then you think a $10,000,000 per school increase is reasonable, assuming that the new contracts are shorter than or equal to about 9 years long. Otherwise you don't.***

*I divided by 12 teams because there were 12 teams in the conference at that time.
**I said 9 years because the weighted average life of the contracts that are expiring is 8.9 years, weighted by value of the contract. The Top tier football contract had a 10 year contract life and a disproportionately large payout, so it pulled the average contract length MUCH closer to 10 years than 6 years, which was the length of the other contracts.
***Keep in mind that for many years, TV contract projections were consistently low, but now they seem to be consistently high (i.e. LHN, Pac-12 Network).

**NOTE: This site does not relect updated info concerning the Big XII deal, but the info on the B1G deal is up to date.**

yeah, what nzmorange wrote!

the other thing to remember is this - apparently NBC can't afford to pay what ESPN and Fox are paying now, much less out-bid them.

The part about the BYU network not being as successful was kinda funny, when you consider its a non-profit and a church network that occasionally shows BYU sports events. Was never supposed to be a revenue generator. Wasn't before they started showing live BYU sports.

(04-12-2013 06:14 PM)texasorange Wrote:  Am I the only one who is skeptical of the revenue projections of the Big 10?

No, I think that they will make money but I am far from convinced they will be raking in the projections as they stand.

Is another conference counting on NBC to bring them the "Big Money"? Really?

(04-13-2013 04:06 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/705/

$1,000,000,000/10years=$100,000,000/year
$72,000,000/6years=$12,000,000/year
$145,000,000/6years=$24,166,667/year
TOTAL: $100,000,000/yr+$12,000,000/yr+$24,166,667/yr=$136,166,667/year
PER TEAM TOTAL: $136,166,667/year/12teams=$11,347,222/team*
PERCENT INCREASE: $10,000,000/$11,347,222=88.1%

Do you think that the B1G's best games have increased in value by 88.1% over the last 9 years?** If so, then you think a $10,000,000 per school increase is reasonable, assuming that the new contracts are shorter than or equal to about 9 years long. Otherwise you don't.***

*I divided by 12 teams because there were 12 teams in the conference at that time.
**I said 9 years because the weighted average life of the contracts that are expiring is 8.9 years, weighted by value of the contract. The Top tier football contract had a 10 year contract life and a disproportionately large payout, so it pulled the average contract length MUCH closer to 10 years than 6 years, which was the length of the other contracts.
***Keep in mind that for many years, TV contract projections were consistently low, but now they seem to be consistently high (i.e. LHN, Pac-12 Network).

**NOTE: This site does not relect updated info concerning the Big XII deal, but the info on the B1G deal is up to date.**

That's a great link, I'm going to bookmark that.

You added up Tier 1 football, Basketball and the Championship game rights because they all end in 2016.

What was the ACC making 9 years ago? Aren't we making about 10 mil a year more per school? It's not what I think the B1G is worth (which is dog sh*t) it's what the market thinks they're worth. I still wouldn't be surprised to see them make $10 million more per school even though it is an 88% increase. NBC may not have been as serious about acquiring the Pac-12 or Big 12 rights as they would be for the B1G. I know I wouldn't be. Keep in mind the B1G is the last major property on the table for about 15 years. If NBC doesn't land the B1G, then their sports channel is going to have to rely on BE basketball as their rights leader for 15 years.

(04-14-2013 10:59 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-13-2013 04:06 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/705/

$1,000,000,000/10years=$100,000,000/year
$72,000,000/6years=$12,000,000/year
$145,000,000/6years=$24,166,667/year
TOTAL: $100,000,000/yr+$12,000,000/yr+$24,166,667/yr=$136,166,667/year
PER TEAM TOTAL: $136,166,667/year/12teams=$11,347,222/team*
PERCENT INCREASE: $10,000,000/$11,347,222=88.1%

Do you think that the B1G's best games have increased in value by 88.1% over the last 9 years?** If so, then you think a $10,000,000 per school increase is reasonable, assuming that the new contracts are shorter than or equal to about 9 years long. Otherwise you don't.***

*I divided by 12 teams because there were 12 teams in the conference at that time.
**I said 9 years because the weighted average life of the contracts that are expiring is 8.9 years, weighted by value of the contract. The Top tier football contract had a 10 year contract life and a disproportionately large payout, so it pulled the average contract length MUCH closer to 10 years than 6 years, which was the length of the other contracts.
***Keep in mind that for many years, TV contract projections were consistently low, but now they seem to be consistently high (i.e. LHN, Pac-12 Network).

**NOTE: This site does not relect updated info concerning the Big XII deal, but the info on the B1G deal is up to date.**

That's a great link, I'm going to bookmark that.

You added up Tier 1 football, Basketball and the Championship game rights because they all end in 2016.

What was the ACC making 9 years ago? Aren't we making about 10 mil a year more per school? It's not what I think the B1G is worth (which is dog sh*t) it's what the market thinks they're worth. I still wouldn't be surprised to see them make $10 million more per school even though it is an 88% increase. NBC may not have been as serious about acquiring the Pac-12 or Big 12 rights as they would be for the B1G. I know I wouldn't be. Keep in mind the B1G is the last major property on the table for about 15 years. If NBC doesn't land the B1G, then their sports channel is going to have to rely on BE basketball as their rights leader for 15 years.

That, and Notre Dame football.

(04-14-2013 11:05 PM)TerryD Wrote:  That, and Notre Dame football.

Are they really going to take ND football off NBC and put it exclusively on NBCSports?

Also, I think the C7/BE has signed with Fox sports not NBC.

(04-12-2013 10:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  [quote='orangefan' pid='9229186' dateline='1365817572']
The B1G should enjoy a very generous bump (more thant $10 millin per school) when it's ABC contract runs out in 2016.

That was a joke, right? I don't see any way they get anything like that.

Depends on if Fox and ESPN work together like they have in the past, or go at each other, and if NBC goes for it again. The Big Ten is a conference they could build their sports network around, so they may actually break the bank for them. If so, I could see them go close to $400 million per year to try and get the Big Ten. They'd make their money back pretty quickly. Thus ESPN and Fox may have to outbid them to take it back.

Not saying it will happen, but it certainly could.

(04-14-2013 11:42 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-14-2013 11:05 PM)TerryD Wrote:  That, and Notre Dame football.

Are they really going to take ND football off NBC and put it exclusively on NBCSports?

Also, I think the C7/BE has signed with Fox sports not NBC.

They are going to move one ND football game per year there.

They are also going to televise every home ND hockey game live in a separate deal signed last fall between ND and NBC Sports.

(04-15-2013 10:19 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(04-14-2013 11:42 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(04-14-2013 11:05 PM)TerryD Wrote:  That, and Notre Dame football.

Are they really going to take ND football off NBC and put it exclusively on NBCSports?

Also, I think the C7/BE has signed with Fox sports not NBC.

They are going to move one ND football game per year there.

They are also going to televise every home ND hockey game live in a separate deal signed last fall between ND and NBC Sports.

Are you sure that ND is going to sign back with NBC at the end of there contract? Wouldn't be shocked to see them sign with ESPN.

Well, I was talking pre-2016 season. They want to move one game starting next season.

As far as ND/NBC, who knows?

Jack Swarbrick was telling everyone months ago that the two parties were very close to signing an extension.

He also said often that NBC was helping ND start a digital Irish network.

Since then, nothing. But, not much of anything ever leaks from ND sources. Swarbrick locks things down pretty well.

(04-15-2013 10:26 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Well, I was talking pre-2016 season. They want to move one game starting next season.

As far as ND/NBC, who knows?

Jack Swarbrick was telling everyone months ago that the two parties were very close to signing an extension.

He also said often that NBC was helping ND start a digital Irish network.

Since then, nothing. But, not much of anything ever leaks from ND sources. Swarbrick locks things down pretty well.

I'd think an NBC ND digital network would be out of the picture now with ND's non-revenue sports now being part of the ACC package.

He still talked about it last fall after the ACC deal:

"Tyler Moorehead: You also mentioned in your last Google Hangout that Notre Dame would never have its own network in the sense of the ESPN Longhorn Network, but you really wanted to continue to expand the digital media rights, and kind of expand a digital network. Now with the move to the ACC, do you have to work with them and their media rights, or how will that digital network, or those goals, be affected by the move?

Jack Swarbrick: The structure is very similar, relative to the television rights with the ACC and the BIG EAST. That is to say, there is a tiering of the rights, their network partners get first choice, the ACC digital network has a secondary choice, and then if things haven’t been picked up by those methods, the school has a choice. So we’ll still have a lot of inventory to develop and work with, and in that sense there’s no significant difference between that structure within the Big East. So we don’t think it will impact us adversely at all, and in fact, given the depth and breadth of the Olympic sports, it probably gives us some really high-quality inventory to work with in the years ahead."


This was in a Google + Chat with ND bloggers on 9/26/12, after the ND move to the ACC.

http://collegespun.com/national/notre-da...W039KKG390

(04-16-2013 06:39 AM)TerryD Wrote:  He still talked about it last fall after the ACC deal:

"Tyler Moorehead: You also mentioned in your last Google Hangout that Notre Dame would never have its own network in the sense of the ESPN Longhorn Network, but you really wanted to continue to expand the digital media rights, and kind of expand a digital network. Now with the move to the ACC, do you have to work with them and their media rights, or how will that digital network, or those goals, be affected by the move?

Jack Swarbrick: The structure is very similar, relative to the television rights with the ACC and the BIG EAST. That is to say, there is a tiering of the rights, their network partners get first choice, the ACC digital network has a secondary choice, and then if things haven’t been picked up by those methods, the school has a choice. So we’ll still have a lot of inventory to develop and work with, and in that sense there’s no significant difference between that structure within the Big East. So we don’t think it will impact us adversely at all, and in fact, given the depth and breadth of the Olympic sports, it probably gives us some really high-quality inventory to work with in the years ahead."


This was in a Google + Chat with ND bloggers on 9/26/12, after the ND move to the ACC.

http://collegespun.com/national/notre-da...W039KKG390

Based on that, I'd say a ND digital network is even more feasible because the quality of Olympic sports are so much better in the ACC. He's right, the ACC digital network (hopefully soon to be ACC network) won't be pulling a very large percentage of ND's Olympic sports, just some of the more marquee games. There's plenty of stuff left over for ND to have a digital network with NBC.