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grol Offline
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Post: #1
Expected wins
Based on our 24-11 record and remaining games, the Owls may win 38 games if we continue at the present W/L pace.

For those who speculate about these things, is 38 wins enough to host a regional? Would it take 40 wins, plus winning the conference championship?
04-10-2013 04:04 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 04:04 PM)grol Wrote:  Based on our 24-11 record and remaining games, the Owls may win 38 games if we continue at the present W/L pace.

For those who speculate about these things, is 38 wins enough to host a regional? Would it take 40 wins, plus winning the conference championship?

Win total above 35 minimum is largely irrelevant. What matters, unfortunately for us this year, is RPI, record vs. Top 25/50/100 and road record, as well as conference record/standing/championships. I think we could get our RPI down into the high 20's by the end of the regular season, but that's not going to be near enough to cop a regional bid. We do have a very good road record, and we do benefit from Oklahoma and Arkansas being the only teams ahead of us in the southwest region at the moment....and though Arkansas may have one of the Top 5 staffs in the country, their offense makes our look like murderers row...and that's saying something.

IMO, our only shot at a regional host is for us to not only win BOTH the regular season and conference tourney championship, but to go on a 10 - 15 game run to end the season. Not likely, but still a possibility; especially if we come out of the break playing our best ball, which has historically been the case.
04-10-2013 04:24 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Expected wins
I know the competition was weaker in the WAC, but I miss the days when Rice routinely swept weekend series against conference opponents. For a stretch of years, sweepening weekend series was the norm.

RPI-be-damned, I could see Rice hosting a regional if ranked in the top 15 in polls, so long as we eclipse 40 wins (including tournament) and at least split conference championship. If there is a more worthy team that has substandard facilities, I could see Rice hosting as a #2 seed.

edit: I should note that I'm no expert and don't follow this nearly as much as Walt and some others. RPI is looking like the main difference between this Rice team and quite a few of the ones in the last 5 years (which bodes better for a regional hosting than a CWS appearance).
(This post was last modified: 04-10-2013 04:26 PM by mrbig.)
04-10-2013 04:24 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 04:24 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I know the competition was weaker in the WAC, but I miss the days when Rice routinely swept weekend series against conference opponents. For a stretch of years, sweepening weekend series was the norm.

RPI-be-damned, I could see Rice hosting a regional if ranked in the top 15 in polls, so long as we eclipse 40 wins (including tournament) and at least split conference championship. If there is a more worthy team that has substandard facilities, I could see Rice hosting as a #2 seed.

edit: I should note that I'm no expert and don't follow this nearly as much as Walt and some others. RPI is looking like the main difference between this Rice team and quite a few of the ones in the last 5 years (which bodes better for a regional hosting than a CWS appearance).

Actual, the difference is both RPI and record against Top 25/50/100. In past years, this almost always gave us the edge over a number the competing BCS schools. Unfortunately, this year, we're only 0-2 vs. Top 50 (with only one more Top 50 team on our schedule in UH), a very mediocre 8-6 vs. Top 100. That's not a hosting resume. But, again, a VERY strong end-of-year finish, coupled with the regular season and tourney championship (as well as our exceptional road record and if we continue our string of winning every weekend series), and we'll have a shot, provided a number of the teams in front of us falter. However, if Oklahoma and Arkansas both stay ahead of us in the regional chase, I don't see us getting to host.
04-10-2013 04:36 PM
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grol Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Expected wins
So the Top 25/50/100 is based on polls or on RPI?
04-10-2013 05:06 PM
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texd Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Expected wins
vs RPI is what the committee sees.
04-10-2013 05:07 PM
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Memphis Owl Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 04:36 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 04:24 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I know the competition was weaker in the WAC, but I miss the days when Rice routinely swept weekend series against conference opponents. For a stretch of years, sweepening weekend series was the norm.

RPI-be-damned, I could see Rice hosting a regional if ranked in the top 15 in polls, so long as we eclipse 40 wins (including tournament) and at least split conference championship. If there is a more worthy team that has substandard facilities, I could see Rice hosting as a #2 seed.

edit: I should note that I'm no expert and don't follow this nearly as much as Walt and some others. RPI is looking like the main difference between this Rice team and quite a few of the ones in the last 5 years (which bodes better for a regional hosting than a CWS appearance).

Actual, the difference is both RPI and record against Top 25/50/100. In past years, this almost always gave us the edge over a number the competing BCS schools. Unfortunately, this year, we're only 0-2 vs. Top 50 (with only one more Top 50 team on our schedule in UH), a very mediocre 8-6 vs. Top 100. That's not a hosting resume. But, again, a VERY strong end-of-year finish, coupled with the regular season and tourney championship (as well as our exceptional road record and if we continue our string of winning every weekend series), and we'll have a shot, provided a number of the teams in front of us falter. However, if Oklahoma and Arkansas both stay ahead of us in the regional chase, I don't see us getting to host.

There is one bucket list item our Owls have not accomplished. getting to the CWS (and winning the CWS) being unseeded and not hosting a Regional and SuperRegional.

Oregon did it.

I thought we would after we upset LSU, but we lost to Tulane in the SuperRegional...(2005)
04-10-2013 05:27 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Expected wins
I wonder how many Texas teams period will get into a regional. We're okay barring a 2nd half swoon, and I guess Houston is in decent shape at this point too. But how many other teams are in contention - Texas, Texas A&M and Sam Houston State? Any others?
04-10-2013 05:44 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 05:44 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I wonder how many Texas teams period will get into a regional. We're okay barring a 2nd half swoon, and I guess Houston is in decent shape at this point too. But how many other teams are in contention - Texas, Texas A&M and Sam Houston State? Any others?

UT is on the bubble looking in at the moment, but both A&M and Baylor I believe are in. TCU is definitely out, and they're probably one of the biggest flops of the season, as almost everyone had them Top 15 in the preseason. SHS still needs to win the Southland to be assured entry. DBU is out; another big-time disappointmen this year.
04-10-2013 05:52 PM
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Post: #10
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 05:27 PM)Memphis Owl Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 04:36 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 04:24 PM)mrbig Wrote:  I know the competition was weaker in the WAC, but I miss the days when Rice routinely swept weekend series against conference opponents. For a stretch of years, sweepening weekend series was the norm.

RPI-be-damned, I could see Rice hosting a regional if ranked in the top 15 in polls, so long as we eclipse 40 wins (including tournament) and at least split conference championship. If there is a more worthy team that has substandard facilities, I could see Rice hosting as a #2 seed.

edit: I should note that I'm no expert and don't follow this nearly as much as Walt and some others. RPI is looking like the main difference between this Rice team and quite a few of the ones in the last 5 years (which bodes better for a regional hosting than a CWS appearance).

Actual, the difference is both RPI and record against Top 25/50/100. In past years, this almost always gave us the edge over a number the competing BCS schools. Unfortunately, this year, we're only 0-2 vs. Top 50 (with only one more Top 50 team on our schedule in UH), a very mediocre 8-6 vs. Top 100. That's not a hosting resume. But, again, a VERY strong end-of-year finish, coupled with the regular season and tourney championship (as well as our exceptional road record and if we continue our string of winning every weekend series), and we'll have a shot, provided a number of the teams in front of us falter. However, if Oklahoma and Arkansas both stay ahead of us in the regional chase, I don't see us getting to host.

There is one bucket list item our Owls have not accomplished. getting to the CWS (and winning the CWS) being unseeded and not hosting a Regional and SuperRegional.

Oregon did it.

I thought we would after we upset LSU, but we lost to Tulane in the SuperRegional...(2005)

That flight back from New Orleans was a killer. I was sure Rice would prevail that weekend against Tulane. It was so hot that weekend that one was both physically and emotionally spent by the time one returned to Houston.

I wouldn't count out the chance that Rice hosts this year. I think they will. If they don't, I like this team's chances at spoiling someone elses's postseason plans.
04-10-2013 06:26 PM
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DFW Owl Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 05:27 PM)Memphis Owl Wrote:  getting to the CWS (and winning the CWS) being unseeded and not hosting a Regional and SuperRegional.

Oregon did it.

Fresno?
04-10-2013 06:31 PM
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d1owls4life Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 06:31 PM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 05:27 PM)Memphis Owl Wrote:  getting to the CWS (and winning the CWS) being unseeded and not hosting a Regional and SuperRegional.

Oregon did it.

Fresno?

Yup, hell, they were a 4 seed in a regional and won the whole thing.
04-10-2013 06:37 PM
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At Ease Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 06:26 PM)13thOwl Wrote:  That flight back from New Orleans was a killer. I was sure Rice would prevail that weekend against Tulane. It was so hot that weekend that one was both physically and emotionally spent by the time one returned to Houston.

I wouldn't count out the chance that Rice hosts this year. I think they will. If they don't, I like this team's chances at spoiling someone elses's postseason plans.

Such a BS draw for the Owls that year. And still, if not for CSC's rib injury, or Bogusevic's garbage infield hit... the Owls, the baby Owls, would have wrecked shop against Texas and Baylor at the CWS. How sweet that could have been.

I don't know what will happen this year, still work to do in beating good teams, but hoping for the best.
04-10-2013 10:26 PM
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RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 06:37 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 06:31 PM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 05:27 PM)Memphis Owl Wrote:  getting to the CWS (and winning the CWS) being unseeded and not hosting a Regional and SuperRegional.

Oregon did it.

Fresno?

Yup, hell, they were a 4 seed in a regional and won the whole thing.

Hopefully our path doesn't involve rolled bats.
04-10-2013 10:27 PM
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Memphis Owl Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 06:37 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 06:31 PM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 05:27 PM)Memphis Owl Wrote:  getting to the CWS (and winning the CWS) being unseeded and not hosting a Regional and SuperRegional.

Oregon did it.

Fresno?

Yup, hell, they were a 4 seed in a regional and won the whole thing.

Oregon did it for their second title.

Fresno did it in 2008.
04-10-2013 10:41 PM
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DFW Owl Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 10:41 PM)Memphis Owl Wrote:  Oregon did it for their second title.

Fresno did it in 2008.

I think you mean Oregon St. Also I believe the SR was at their place.
04-10-2013 11:05 PM
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Memphis Owl Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 11:05 PM)DFW Owl Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 10:41 PM)Memphis Owl Wrote:  Oregon did it for their second title.

Fresno did it in 2008.

I think you mean Oregon St. Also I believe the SR was at their place.

I get the two confused all the time.

The Sr was at their place, but that was because Michigan could not host due to field not being available.

they did not host the regional. they were a 3 seed in the Charlottesville regional.
04-10-2013 11:17 PM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Expected wins
I think the only way we get a host is if Oklahoma or Arkansas starts tanking. They're kind of already lumped in with Texas as a geographical region and as long as they get hosting spots, I don't think the committee will reach just in order to give a Texas team a host bid. As of now, I think the hosts will probably something like this

Southeast: Insert your combo of 8 non-Arkansas SEC/ACC teams here
"North": Louisville, Indiana
South Central: Arkansas, OU
West: Fullerton, Oregon State, Arizona State, Oregon

I do think we need to start sweeping some weekend series, however, especially with the down year that C-USA is having. It's unfortunately not good enough to just continue our winning streak anymore.
04-10-2013 11:28 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Expected wins
(04-10-2013 04:04 PM)grol Wrote:  Based on our 24-11 record and remaining games, the Owls may win 38 games if we continue at the present W/L pace.

For those who speculate about these things, is 38 wins enough to host a regional? Would it take 40 wins, plus winning the conference championship?

For me, I think of 40 wins as just a basic goal, year in, year out. When was the last ime we finished a season with less than 40?
04-11-2013 02:15 AM
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dragon2owl Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Expected wins
(04-11-2013 02:15 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(04-10-2013 04:04 PM)grol Wrote:  Based on our 24-11 record and remaining games, the Owls may win 38 games if we continue at the present W/L pace.

For those who speculate about these things, is 38 wins enough to host a regional? Would it take 40 wins, plus winning the conference championship?

For me, I think of 40 wins as just a basic goal, year in, year out. When was the last ime we finished a season with less than 40?

1994. 34-21. Wayne's third season.
04-11-2013 02:49 AM
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