As of this morning we're sitting at 56 in Warren Nolan's RPI, which is actually a huge improvement over a week or two ago.

Nolan projects us to a 38-17 final record, with an RPI of 60.

I'm usually very optimistic about hosting, but not this year. I'm concerned about getting in the field of 64. For example, say we don't win the conference (season or tournament), how high does our RPI have to be to feel safe on Selection Monday?

(04-11-2013 11:27 AM)MJY Wrote:  As of this morning we're sitting at 56 in Warren Nolan's RPI, which is actually a huge improvement over a week or two ago.

Nolan projects us to a 38-17 final record, with an RPI of 60.

I'm usually very optimistic about hosting, but not this year. I'm concerned about getting in the field of 64. For example, say we don't win the conference (season or tournament), how high does our RPI have to be to feel safe on Selection Monday?

With no conference titles? Probably 45 or 46.

How common is it for a top-25 team to remain unselected?

(04-11-2013 11:47 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  How common is it for a top-25 team to remain unselected?

This.

So long as we keep winning enough to stay in the Top 25, I don't think our RPI keeps us out of the tourney.

(04-11-2013 11:39 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 11:27 AM)MJY Wrote:  I'm usually very optimistic about hosting, but not this year. I'm concerned about getting in the field of 64. For example, say we don't win the conference (season or tournament), how high does our RPI have to be to feel safe on Selection Monday?

With no conference titles? Probably 45 or 46.

If they were going strictly by RPI, it seems to me that top-30 is usually where you'd have to be to guarantee your spot as an at-large.

I'm more optimistic that Rice gets into the field without the title than I am about hosting. But, the bottom line is that Rice must win every game that they can.

We've had gaudy records in the past and been completely shut down in Omaha by teams with less gaudy records and been held scoreless by "hot" pitchers. I've occassionally wondered if we weren't actually hurting ourselves by trying so hard in the regular season only to slump/get tired at the end.

Personally, I think we have the quality pitching depth to win just about any tournament... even if we lack the "star power" depth of 2003, and if we lose a few games now because guys are in hitting slumps and those get taken care of by the regionals, I'm good. My memory may be tainted... but as I recall, Justin Ruchti wasn't one of our biggest hitters in 2003, but he had some of the biggest hits in the CWS... He was hot at the right time.

(04-11-2013 12:08 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 11:39 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 11:27 AM)MJY Wrote:  I'm usually very optimistic about hosting, but not this year. I'm concerned about getting in the field of 64. For example, say we don't win the conference (season or tournament), how high does our RPI have to be to feel safe on Selection Monday?

With no conference titles? Probably 45 or 46.

If they were going strictly by RPI, it seems to me that top-30 is usually where you'd have to be to guarantee your spot as an at-large.

I'm more optimistic that Rice gets into the field without the title than I am about hosting. But, the bottom line is that Rice must win every game that they can.

My reasoning was very simple, there are about 18 autobids that are usually one-bid teams (four seeds). That leaves 46 slots. I know it was simple in its approach, but I think it will work for discussion purposes. Not all 46 top ranked RPI teams will get invited, the best example used to be the annual SEC/ACC team that missed their conference tourney and had to stay home, but had a high RPI.

(04-11-2013 01:07 PM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 12:08 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 11:39 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 11:27 AM)MJY Wrote:  I'm usually very optimistic about hosting, but not this year. I'm concerned about getting in the field of 64. For example, say we don't win the conference (season or tournament), how high does our RPI have to be to feel safe on Selection Monday?

With no conference titles? Probably 45 or 46.

If they were going strictly by RPI, it seems to me that top-30 is usually where you'd have to be to guarantee your spot as an at-large.

I'm more optimistic that Rice gets into the field without the title than I am about hosting. But, the bottom line is that Rice must win every game that they can.

My reasoning was very simple, there are about 18 autobids that are usually one-bid teams (four seeds). That leaves 46 slots. I know it was simple in its approach, but I think it will work for discussion purposes. Not all 46 top ranked RPI teams will get invited, the best example used to be the annual SEC/ACC team that missed their conference tourney and had to stay home, but had a high RPI.

I think I know where I made my mistake. I think it's been so long that we've even had to worry about this discussion that it was a 48 team tournament... 48-18=30... Not a bad problem to have had, that.

(04-11-2013 01:07 PM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 12:08 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 11:39 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 11:27 AM)MJY Wrote:  I'm usually very optimistic about hosting, but not this year. I'm concerned about getting in the field of 64. For example, say we don't win the conference (season or tournament), how high does our RPI have to be to feel safe on Selection Monday?

With no conference titles? Probably 45 or 46.

If they were going strictly by RPI, it seems to me that top-30 is usually where you'd have to be to guarantee your spot as an at-large.

I'm more optimistic that Rice gets into the field without the title than I am about hosting. But, the bottom line is that Rice must win every game that they can.

My reasoning was very simple, there are about 18 autobids that are usually one-bid teams (four seeds). That leaves 46 slots. I know it was simple in its approach, but I think it will work for discussion purposes. Not all 46 top ranked RPI teams will get invited, the best example used to be the annual SEC/ACC team that missed their conference tourney and had to stay home, but had a high RPI.

That's probably a good way to estimate. There will always be that odd high-RPI SEC or ACC team that doesn't get in, but if you're down around the RPI cutoff, there may also be one or two teams just below you in RPI that leapfrog you.

I certainly expect us to be in the tournament, but it spooked me a bit to see Nolan project us at 38-17 and still stuck down at 60 in RPI. I really hope we're up in the 40s or better.

Just win baby.

(04-11-2013 11:39 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(04-11-2013 11:27 AM)MJY Wrote:  As of this morning we're sitting at 56 in Warren Nolan's RPI, which is actually a huge improvement over a week or two ago.

Nolan projects us to a 38-17 final record, with an RPI of 60.

I'm usually very optimistic about hosting, but not this year. I'm concerned about getting in the field of 64. For example, say we don't win the conference (season or tournament), how high does our RPI have to be to feel safe on Selection Monday?

With no conference titles? Probably 45 or 46.

Probably true, but so long as we win the regular season conference championship, I think we're in even if our RPI is in the high 50s or low 60s. Also, I think a 38-17 regular season record will get us an RPI in the low-to-mid 40s.