Almost exactly half of the regular season games have been played. I (like most) find myself delighted and encouraged when our Owls win, and frustrated and discouraged by each loss. Why can't they just win every game!

To help me get some perspective, I took a look at the season to date (18-9 overall) and looked at Weekend (12-6) and Midweek (6-3) performance. I thought we had played better on the weekends with our more reliable starters, but the winning percentage is exactly the same: 0.667.

I looked at the RPIs of our opponents (past and future) and tried to guess how we might end up. It seems we usually play better in the second half, so I assumed a few extra wins. But, a reasonable projection might be that we go 15-5 on weekends and 5-2 in our midweek games. This would result in a regular season record of 38-17. With a few wins in the CUSA tourney, we may have close to 40 wins when the selection committee looks at our final resume. Based on the past, this would mean a good chance of a regional host slot, although with our RPI challenge we probably need to do better than past records.

I tried to attach the spreadsheet where I did my analysis, but I get a failure. So, I stuck it on Google Drive instead. I think this link should work:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B00tiUd-...sp=sharing

Hope others find this helpful.