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Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
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Briskbas Offline
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Post: #1
Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...-favorite/

Has us at a little bit better than a coin flip to win the first game, at 22% to make the Sweet Sixteen, and at 0.4% to win it all.
03-18-2013 12:43 PM
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aTxTIGER Offline
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RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
bout right
03-18-2013 12:43 PM
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stratecashomie Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
He loved us last year. Damn.
03-18-2013 12:45 PM
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Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
He needs to stick to polling and politics.

Thats his strength.
03-18-2013 12:46 PM
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fsquid Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
yea, he whiffed on his NFL playoff picks
03-18-2013 12:50 PM
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Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
The NCAA tourney and the NFL are not stat driven outcomes like baseball and political polls.
03-18-2013 12:55 PM
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NJ1 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
(03-18-2013 12:46 PM)Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Wrote:  He needs to stick to polling and politics.

Thats his strength.

He was paid to do sports forecasting (by major league teams) LONG before he decided to start a blog handicapping political races.

His background is sports. He's a johnny-come-lately to politics, though his track record there is very good.
03-18-2013 12:55 PM
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Briskbas Offline
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RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
(03-18-2013 12:46 PM)Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Wrote:  He needs to stick to polling and politics.

Thats his strength.

His background is actually baseball analytics. Applied the same sort of analysis to election polls later on.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2013 12:58 PM by Briskbas.)
03-18-2013 12:57 PM
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Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
The NCAA tourney and the NFL are not stat driven outcomes like baseball and political polls.

The guy has no experience in any way at all with basketball , football or the NCAA tournament.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2013 01:03 PM by Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas.)
03-18-2013 12:58 PM
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Briskbas Offline
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RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
(03-18-2013 12:45 PM)stratecashomie Wrote:  He loved us last year. Damn.

We lost in the first round last year, too. Just another forecast to talk about.
03-18-2013 12:59 PM
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Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
(03-18-2013 12:55 PM)NJ1 Wrote:  
(03-18-2013 12:46 PM)Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Wrote:  He needs to stick to polling and politics.

Thats his strength.

He was paid to do sports forecasting (by major league teams) LONG before he decided to start a blog handicapping political races.

His background is sports. He's a johnny-come-lately to politics, though his track record there is very good.


Politics and polling is what has put him on the map.

Its why we are talking about him right now.
03-18-2013 12:59 PM
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Briskbas Offline
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RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
(03-18-2013 12:58 PM)Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Wrote:  The NCAA tourney and the NFL are not stat driven outcomes like baseball and political polls.

I don't know that that's necessarily true so much as baseball at its core is a battle of a batter against a pitcher and so it's a lot easier to measure than a sport like basketball where it can be hard to tease out what's going on. That's especially true for football where you have a complex interaction of 22 players determining the success or failure of a play on either side of the ball.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2013 01:04 PM by Briskbas.)
03-18-2013 01:03 PM
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Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Offline
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RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
(03-18-2013 01:03 PM)Briskbas Wrote:  
(03-18-2013 12:58 PM)Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas Wrote:  The NCAA tourney and the NFL are not stat driven outcomes like baseball and political polls.

I don't know that that's necessarily true so much as baseball at its core is a battle of a batter against a pitcher and so it's a lot easier to measure than a team sport like basketball where it can be hard to tease out what's going on. That's especially true for football where you have a complex interaction of 22 players determining the success or failure of a play on either side of the ball.

Its more true in basketball and football than baseball. Stats and numbers come in to play more in baseball. Many of the greatest managers play the numbers to a tee. OF course, that's not all that's involved in baseball, but it plays a bigger role than the other two.

Nothing Silver has done nothing that qualifies him in any way to be predicting NFL and NCAA tourney games.

Thats why he shouldn't be taken seriously in those fields.

Surprised we had to dig this deeply into it. I figured its a common sense opinion that we would all agree on.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2013 01:44 PM by Jedi Master Sipho-Dyas.)
03-18-2013 01:09 PM
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Mimi Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
The metrics are better for predicting long term baseball outcomes, not individual games.
03-18-2013 01:29 PM
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Strat57 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
The guy was spot on in the last election. 04-cheers zzzzzzif If I were a candidate, I would sure use him as a barometer of how things are.
03-18-2013 01:43 PM
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George Can'tStandYa Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
Reading his book right now. His interest is IN predictive outcomes, which are done through a range of possible outcomes. He is way more intrested in how good his system is, than whether or not a certain team wins. The failure of stats in prvious years will be attempted to be corrected in his model. Also, it is a .4% to get the national championship today. These numbers will move. I seriously doubt that our 58% number is static no matter who wins between SM and MTSU.

The more interesting correlation is like in his political analysis when he (and others) have proven repeatedly that political talking heads are horrible at predicative outcomes, if that translates to sports talking heads.

In his book, he devotes a chapter to explainign how Moneyball is not exactly right and that the best predicative outcome is through stats plus the scouting info used by the old timey scouts, so I am sure there is more than just statistical analysis in his algorithm.
03-18-2013 02:19 PM
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RationalRebel Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Nate Silvers Tournament Forecast
He has Florida and Gonzaga advancing farther than I tend to think they will, but neither are beyond the realm of possibility.
03-18-2013 02:49 PM
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