I was inspired by our resident CUSA expert Tallgrass, particularly his approach to calling out very bluntly the futility of the Big East.

The average Sagarin rankings of rankings of the Big East, Mountain West and CUSA over a 4 year period for each school is very telling of how strong we can expect each conference to be in the future. There are definitely some patterns here once you smooth out the fluxuations.

Last 4 years listed from the 2012 season first:

Sagarins: Big East 78.18 (66.64)
Cincinnati: 36, 30, 67, 8 (35)
South Florida: 86, 59, 44, 39 (57)
Central Florida: 45, 77, 42, 71 (59)
Connecticut: 89, 76, 56, 28 (62)
SMU: 57, 51, 83, 65 (64)
Houston: 108, 15, 82, 53 (65)
Navy: 82, 74, 73, 38 (67)
Temple: 100, 46, 66, 72 (71)
East Carolina: 84, 93, 85, 51 (78)
Tulane: 155, 171, 135, 141 (150)
Memphis: 123, 182, 173, 130 (152)

Sagarins: Mountain West 90.41 (64.28)
Boise State: 41, 9, 6, 5 (15)
Nevada: 80, 60, 16, 70 (56)
SDSU: 66, 70, 34, 103 (68)
Air Force: 130, 72, 37, 35 (68)
Fresno State: 58, 105, 78, 59 (75)
Utah State: 19, 80, 114, 100 (78)
Wyoming: 121, 84, 108, 82 (99)
Hawaii: 161, 97, 47, 105 (102)
SJSU: 29, 96, 161, 138 (106)
Colorado State: 134, 142, 130, 106 (128)
UNLV: 157, 155, 131, 93 (134)
New Mexico: 145, 175, 170, 136 (156)

Sagarins: Conference USA 113.31 (60.42)
Tulsa: 47, 35, 35, 96 (53)
Louisiana Tech: 51, 48, 91, 89 (70)
Southern Miss: 167, 24, 69, 77 (84)
Marshall: 107, 79, 113, 79 (94)
Rice: 83, 89, 127, 144 (111)
Florida International: 127, 94, 88, 134 (111)
Middle Tennessee: 85, 169, 138, 63 (114)
UTEP: 138, 92, 121, 113 (116)
UAB: 142, 152, 116, 99 (127)
North Texas: 118, 121, 150, 160 (137)
Florida Atlantic: 137, 190, 155, 114 (149)
Old Dominion: 117, 123, 168, 194 (152)
UTSA: 110, 220, N/A, N/A (155)
Charlotte: N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A (N/A)

A few observations on the Sagarins:

-I think people are overlooking how solid the TX and FL teams are going to be for the Big East. Houston, SMU, USF, UCF are well established with deep pockets.

-The nMW is going to be similar in strength to the Boise led WAC. In fact if you look at the new Mountain West lineup half of the conference is from the WAC (SJSU, Utah St, Nevada, Fresno, Hawaii, Boise) so this shouldn't come as any surprise. The 6 schools remaining in the Mountain West are less the big 3 (Utah, BYU, TCU) that dominated for many years.

-CUSA has never placed a school in a BCS game and its overall strength in football is looking close to the MAC or SBC level. Perhaps 1 year out of 12 CUSA manages to place a school in an Access Bowl, undefeated and ranked #12 or so. Normally its going to be difficult seeing the CUSA champ finishing above the BE and MW champs though.

-If the new MW is about as strong as the old WAC and was able to launch Boise State into the Top 4 and the new BE is about as strong as the old MW, it goes to say that the BE will probably be strong enough to place an undefeated team in the playoff. The same won't apply to CUSA, MAC or the SBC.

-Tulsa heading from CUSA to the Big East would just put all the more of a gap between the two football conferences.

These #s show that Tulsa would compete nicely in BE or MWC. Tulsa agrees to leave Tallgrass with CUSA if we move to another conference.

(02-28-2013 12:09 AM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  These #s show that Tulsa would compete nicely in BE or MWC. Tulsa agrees to leave Tallgrass with CUSA if we move to another conference.

you really hate the C-USA that much to leave them with him?

(02-28-2013 12:09 AM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  These #s show that Tulsa would compete nicely in BE or MWC. Tulsa agrees to leave Tallgrass with CUSA if we move to another conference.

These numbers don't just say Tulsa can compete in the BE or MW.

What they say is Tulsa almost needs to move to the BE or MW to avoid having its program weighed down by CUSA....

(02-27-2013 10:29 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  A few observations on the Sagarins:

-I think people are overlooking how solid the TX and FL teams are going to be for the Big East. Houston, SMU, USF, UCF are well established with deep pockets.

-The nMW is going to be similar in strength to the Boise led WAC. In fact if you look at the new Mountain West lineup half of the conference is from the WAC (SJSU, Utah St, Nevada, Fresno, Hawaii, Boise) so this shouldn't come as any surprise. The 6 schools remaining in the Mountain West are less the big 3 (Utah, BYU, TCU) that dominated for many years.

-CUSA has never placed a school in a BCS game and its overall strength in football is looking close to the MAC or SBC level. Perhaps 1 year out of 12 CUSA manages to place a school in an Access Bowl, undefeated and ranked #12 or so. Normally its going to be difficult seeing the CUSA champ finishing above the BE and MW champs though.

-If the new MW is about as strong as the old WAC and was able to launch Boise State into the Top 4 and the new BE is about as strong as the old MW, it goes to say that the BE will probably be strong enough to place an undefeated team in the playoff. The same won't apply to CUSA, MAC or the SBC.

-Tulsa heading from CUSA to the Big East would just put all the more of a gap between the two football conferences.

I think that that your assessment of once every 12 years for CUSA is not correct. All a team has to do is catch lightning in a bottle. Look at the highest number for any old CUSA team over the 4 years and that is Southern Miss. I certainly dont expect us to go gangbusters after 0-12, but we are one year removed from a top 25 finish. The only teams that had a higher ranking were Cincinnati, Boisie, Nevada, and UConn. If Southern Miss can return to form, they will be running through a weaker conference, ala Boisie in the WAC. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Tulsa or Southern Miss to run rampant in the new CUSA. As a matter of fact, the east of CUSA appears to be so weak that I would not be suprised if Marshall could pull off a BCS appearance with a W over Southern or Tulsa in a Championship game.

(02-28-2013 09:52 AM)EagleAttorney Wrote:  

(02-27-2013 10:29 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  A few observations on the Sagarins:

-I think people are overlooking how solid the TX and FL teams are going to be for the Big East. Houston, SMU, USF, UCF are well established with deep pockets.

-The nMW is going to be similar in strength to the Boise led WAC. In fact if you look at the new Mountain West lineup half of the conference is from the WAC (SJSU, Utah St, Nevada, Fresno, Hawaii, Boise) so this shouldn't come as any surprise. The 6 schools remaining in the Mountain West are less the big 3 (Utah, BYU, TCU) that dominated for many years.

-CUSA has never placed a school in a BCS game and its overall strength in football is looking close to the MAC or SBC level. Perhaps 1 year out of 12 CUSA manages to place a school in an Access Bowl, undefeated and ranked #12 or so. Normally its going to be difficult seeing the CUSA champ finishing above the BE and MW champs though.

-If the new MW is about as strong as the old WAC and was able to launch Boise State into the Top 4 and the new BE is about as strong as the old MW, it goes to say that the BE will probably be strong enough to place an undefeated team in the playoff. The same won't apply to CUSA, MAC or the SBC.

-Tulsa heading from CUSA to the Big East would just put all the more of a gap between the two football conferences.

I think that that your assessment of once every 12 years for CUSA is not correct. All a team has to do is catch lightning in a bottle. Look at the highest number for any old CUSA team over the 4 years and that is Southern Miss. I certainly dont expect us to go gangbusters after 0-12, but we are one year removed from a top 25 finish. The only teams that had a higher ranking were Cincinnati, Boisie, Nevada, and UConn. If Southern Miss can return to form, they will be running through a weaker conference, ala Boisie in the WAC. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Tulsa or Southern Miss to run rampant in the new CUSA. As a matter of fact, the east of CUSA appears to be so weak that I would not be suprised if Marshall could pull off a BCS appearance with a W over Southern or Tulsa in a Championship game.

Sorry, I missed Houston's 15. But in any event, same theory still applies.... Houston will be playing tougher competition and may not reach a 15 as easily.

(02-28-2013 09:52 AM)EagleAttorney Wrote:  

(02-27-2013 10:29 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  A few observations on the Sagarins:

-I think people are overlooking how solid the TX and FL teams are going to be for the Big East. Houston, SMU, USF, UCF are well established with deep pockets.

-The nMW is going to be similar in strength to the Boise led WAC. In fact if you look at the new Mountain West lineup half of the conference is from the WAC (SJSU, Utah St, Nevada, Fresno, Hawaii, Boise) so this shouldn't come as any surprise. The 6 schools remaining in the Mountain West are less the big 3 (Utah, BYU, TCU) that dominated for many years.

-CUSA has never placed a school in a BCS game and its overall strength in football is looking close to the MAC or SBC level. Perhaps 1 year out of 12 CUSA manages to place a school in an Access Bowl, undefeated and ranked #12 or so. Normally its going to be difficult seeing the CUSA champ finishing above the BE and MW champs though.

-If the new MW is about as strong as the old WAC and was able to launch Boise State into the Top 4 and the new BE is about as strong as the old MW, it goes to say that the BE will probably be strong enough to place an undefeated team in the playoff. The same won't apply to CUSA, MAC or the SBC.

-Tulsa heading from CUSA to the Big East would just put all the more of a gap between the two football conferences.

I think that that your assessment of once every 12 years for CUSA is not correct. All a team has to do is catch lightning in a bottle. Look at the highest number for any old CUSA team over the 4 years and that is Southern Miss. I certainly dont expect us to go gangbusters after 0-12, but we are one year removed from a top 25 finish. The only teams that had a higher ranking were Cincinnati, Boisie, Nevada, and UConn. If Southern Miss can return to form, they will be running through a weaker conference, ala Boisie in the WAC. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Tulsa or Southern Miss to run rampant in the new CUSA. As a matter of fact, the east of CUSA appears to be so weak that I would not be suprised if Marshall could pull off a BCS appearance with a W over Southern or Tulsa in a Championship game.

The new selection committee is going to take into account the tomato can nature of CUSA. The type of people who will make up the selection committee didn't think much of CUSA before, doubt they will be giving anyone tons of street cred for blowing through a wet paper bag schedule. That said, wins have always been the most important thing in determining the rankings and S Miss should get plenty of those with the new CUSA membership. So, I guess we will have to see how the selection committee process handles this situation in the coming years.

The answer here for CUSA is fairly obvious.

Over the 8 seasons of the Top 12/Top 16 rule how many times did either CUSA, MAC or SBC place a team in a BCS bowl? It happened only 1 time with Northern Illinois making it at 12-1 over a 10-2 Boise State.

The key here for the SBC, MAC and CUSA is losses. With a lower overall strength of schedule they are going to have to finish with one less loss than a MW or BE team to have a chance.

An undefeated SBC, MAC or CUSA has a 75% shot an an Access Bowl. A one loss SBC, MAC or CUSA has a 25% shot at an Access Bowl.

Conversely, an undefeated BE or MW has a 75% shot at a spot in the playoff. A one loss BE or MW has a 50% shot at an Access Bowl.

An undefeated BE or MW team is going to be a Top 5 team and the pressure will be there from the public to include them in the playoff. The SBC, MAC and CUSA play FCS strength football so the public will feel alright about a school out of those conferences earning a token Access Bowl. Unless a school can go undefeated 3 years in a row out of one of the those leagues but the catch is that never happens.

Even an 11-2 regular season is pretty rare in the SBC, MAC or CUSA....NIU and CMU have done out of the MAC lately. I'm not sure if anyone in the SBC has ever won 11 games.

(02-28-2013 01:16 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  The answer here for CUSA is fairly obvious.

Over the 8 seasons of the Top 12/Top 16 rule how many times did either CUSA, MAC or SBC place a team in a BCS bowl? It happened only 1 time with Northern Illinois making it at 12-1 over a 10-2 Boise State.

The key here for the SBC, MAC and CUSA is losses. With a lower overall strength of schedule they are going to have to finish with one less loss than a MW or BE team to have a chance.

An undefeated SBC, MAC or CUSA has a 75% shot an an Access Bowl. A one loss SBC, MAC or CUSA has a 25% shot at an Access Bowl.

Conversely, an undefeated BE or MW has a 75% shot at a spot in the playoff. A one loss BE or MW has a 50% shot at an Access Bowl.

An undefeated BE or MW team is going to be a Top 5 team and the pressure will be there from the public to include them in the playoff. The SBC, MAC and CUSA play FCS strength football so the public will feel alright about a school out of those conferences earning a token Access Bowl. Unless a school can go undefeated 3 years in a row out of one of the those leagues but the catch is that never happens.

Even an 11-2 regular season is pretty rare in the SBC, MAC or CUSA....NIU and CMU have done out of the MAC lately. I'm not sure if anyone in the SBC has ever won 11 games.

LOL, what are you smoking. No undefeated MW or BE team not named Boise will be top 5.

(02-28-2013 05:38 PM)PaulDel2 Wrote:  

(02-28-2013 01:16 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  The answer here for CUSA is fairly obvious.

Over the 8 seasons of the Top 12/Top 16 rule how many times did either CUSA, MAC or SBC place a team in a BCS bowl? It happened only 1 time with Northern Illinois making it at 12-1 over a 10-2 Boise State.

The key here for the SBC, MAC and CUSA is losses. With a lower overall strength of schedule they are going to have to finish with one less loss than a MW or BE team to have a chance.

An undefeated SBC, MAC or CUSA has a 75% shot an an Access Bowl. A one loss SBC, MAC or CUSA has a 25% shot at an Access Bowl.

Conversely, an undefeated BE or MW has a 75% shot at a spot in the playoff. A one loss BE or MW has a 50% shot at an Access Bowl.

An undefeated BE or MW team is going to be a Top 5 team and the pressure will be there from the public to include them in the playoff. The SBC, MAC and CUSA play FCS strength football so the public will feel alright about a school out of those conferences earning a token Access Bowl. Unless a school can go undefeated 3 years in a row out of one of the those leagues but the catch is that never happens.

Even an 11-2 regular season is pretty rare in the SBC, MAC or CUSA....NIU and CMU have done out of the MAC lately. I'm not sure if anyone in the SBC has ever won 11 games.

LOL, what are you smoking. No undefeated MW or BE team not named Boise will be top 5.

Cincinnati was Top 5 before.....

The thinking here has a major flaw in it. Schools and their football teams are not static. Schools that have been playing FCS will be recruiting better players and investing more in their programs. Schools that have been AQ, and now are not, may be negatively impacted in both recruiting and finances. The Sagarin ratings listed for the past four years show how significantly things can change from year to year. I believe this whole G5 conference thing is going to be lot closer than some people want to admit, but it is human nature to want to look for ways to feel superior. There will be good and bad teams in each conference.

(02-28-2013 11:21 PM)BuzDawg73 Wrote:  The thinking here has a major flaw in it. Schools and their football teams are not static. Schools that have been playing FCS will be recruiting better players and investing more in their programs. Schools that have been AQ, and now are not, may be negatively impacted in both recruiting and finances. The Sagarin ratings listed for the past four years show how significantly things can change from year to year. I believe this whole G5 conference thing is going to be lot closer than some people want to admit, but it is human nature to want to look for ways to feel superior. There will be good and bad teams in each conference.

I averaged the numbers over a 4 year period to take into consideration some fluxuation.

The Sagarin ratings have to be in the 67 to 70 range for a school to be able to crack the Top 5 of the rankings. That is how it was for the oBE and MW in the past and that is how it will be going forward. The oBE and MW are also adding championship games for another quality win to help rankings even more for an undefeated squad.

An undefeated oBE or MW ranked #6 or better in the polls will likely get that playoff chance. Even if we are are talking Wyoming or Tulane here and undefeated team will probably finish #6.

Out of CUSA, SBC, MAC and undefeated team will finish somewhere along the lines of #9 to #12 in the polls, just too low to give them anything other than a token Access Bowl. Hawaii and NIU's BCS bowls were just that of the token variety.

Updated the G5 Sagarin ratings in advance of the Tulsa, WKU, NMSU, Idaho, GS and Appy State moves. Also added SBC & MAC numbers now into the comparison.

Sagarins: A12 76.08 (67.47)
Cincinnati: 36, 30, 67, 8 (35)
Tulsa: 47, 35, 35, 96 (53)
South Florida: 86, 59, 44, 39 (57)
Central Florida: 45, 77, 42, 71 (59)
Connecticut: 89, 76, 56, 28 (62)
SMU: 57, 51, 83, 65 (64)
Houston: 108, 15, 82, 53 (65)
Navy: 82, 74, 73, 38 (67)
Temple: 100, 46, 66, 72 (71)
East Carolina: 84, 93, 85, 51 (78)
Tulane: 155, 171, 135, 141 (150)
Memphis: 123, 182, 173, 130 (152)

Sagarins: Mountain West 90.41 (64.28)
Boise State: 41, 9, 6, 5 (15)
Nevada: 80, 60, 16, 70 (56)
SDSU: 66, 70, 34, 103 (68)
Air Force: 130, 72, 37, 35 (68)
Fresno State: 58, 105, 78, 59 (75)
Utah State: 19, 80, 114, 100 (78)
Wyoming: 121, 84, 108, 82 (99)
Hawaii: 161, 97, 47, 105 (102)
SJSU: 29, 96, 161, 138 (106)
Colorado State: 134, 142, 130, 106 (128)
UNLV: 157, 155, 131, 93 (134)
New Mexico: 145, 175, 170, 136 (156)

Sagarins: Mid American 114.54 (60.31)
Northern Illinois: 39, 47, 46, 95 (57)
Toledo: 69, 40, 92, 122 (81)
Ohio: 75, 68, 104, 88 (84)
Kent State: 60, 116, 120, 119 (104)
Western Michigan: 116, 78, 99, 125 (104)
Central Michigan: 111, 137, 134, 42 (106)
Bowling Green: 74, 99, 163, 92 (107)
Miami Ohio: 125, 98, 77, 156 (114)
Ball State: 67, 100, 160, 151 (119)
Massachusetts: 178, 150, 107, 121 (139)
Buffalo: 131, 135, 185, 107 (139)
Eastern Michigan: 146, 119, 183, 184 (158)
Akron: 169, 198, 206, 137 (177)

Sagarins: Conference USA 119.69 (58.93)
Louisiana Tech: 51, 48, 91, 89 (70)
Southern Miss: 167, 24, 69, 77 (84)
Marshall: 107, 79, 113, 79 (94)
Rice: 83, 89, 127, 144 (111)
Florida International: 127, 94, 88, 134 (111)
Middle Tennessee: 85, 169, 138, 63 (114)
UTEP: 138, 92, 121, 113 (116)
UAB: 142, 152, 116, 99 (127)
Western Kentucky: 91, 101, 165, 187 (136)
North Texas: 118, 121, 150, 160 (137)
Florida Atlantic: 137, 190, 155, 114 (149)
Old Dominion: 117, 123, 168, 194 (152)
UTSA: 110, 220, N/A, N/A (155)
Charlotte: N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A (N/A)

Sagarins: Sun Belt 128.09 (57.88)
Arkansas State: 50, 67, 117, 129 (91)
Georgia Southern: 72, 81, 72, 150 (94)
Appalachian State: 115, 131, 75, 76 (99)
Troy: 103, 147, 80, 69 (100)
Louisiana Lafayette: 62, 82, 162, 123 (107)
Louisiana Monroe: 77, 124, 140, 109 (112)
Idaho: 165, 141, 89, 85 (120)
South Alabama: 164, 181, 122, N/A (156)
New Mexico State: 174, 133, 172, 153 (158)
Texas State: 124, 178, 195, 154 (163)
Georgia State: 224, 208, 194, N/A (209)

(02-28-2013 01:16 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  Over the 8 seasons of the Top 12/Top 16 rule how many times did either CUSA, MAC or SBC place a team in a BCS bowl? It happened only 1 time with Northern Illinois making it at 12-1 over a 10-2 Boise State.

But that's not really the fair test, since the Access Bowl Group of Five rep is automatic, with no BCS ranking test attached. So rather, the test would be, over the past eight seasons, what were the number of times that either CUSA, MAC or SBC would have been in the BCS bowl if there had been no ranking test in place?

I'd be very much surprised, though, if the answer is much higher.

Quote: ... Conversely, an undefeated BE or MW has a 75% shot at a spot in the playoff. A one loss BE or MW has a 50% shot at an Access Bowl.

That is, under the new rules, the only way a one-loss Big TBA team fails to make an access bowl is if it is beat out by a one-loss or undefeated MWC team. If there is a one-loss team from the Big TBA AND/OR the MWC, there's likely a 90%+ chance that the Go5 Rep comes from one of those two conferences.

(03-30-2013 10:12 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-28-2013 01:16 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  Over the 8 seasons of the Top 12/Top 16 rule how many times did either CUSA, MAC or SBC place a team in a BCS bowl? It happened only 1 time with Northern Illinois making it at 12-1 over a 10-2 Boise State.

But that's not really the fair test, since the Access Bowl Group of Five rep is automatic, with no BCS ranking test attached. So rather, the test would be, over the past eight seasons, what were the number of times that either CUSA, MAC or SBC would have been in the BCS bowl if there had been no ranking test in place?

I'd be very much surprised, though, if the answer is much higher.

Quote: ... Conversely, an undefeated BE or MW has a 75% shot at a spot in the playoff. A one loss BE or MW has a 50% shot at an Access Bowl.

That is, under the new rules, the only way a one-loss Big TBA team fails to make an access bowl is if it is beat out by a one-loss or undefeated MWC team. If there is a one-loss team from the Big TBA AND/OR the MWC, there's likely a 90%+ chance that the Go5 Rep comes from one of those two conferences.

Agreed on both points.

Updated following results from 2013:

Sagarins: AAC 81.75 (65.34)
Central Florida: 25, 45, 77, 42 (47.25)
Cincinnati: 67, 36, 30, 67 (50)
Tulsa: 132, 47, 35, 35 (62.25)
Houston: 50, 108, 15, 82 (63.75)
Navy: 51, 82, 74, 73 (70)
SMU: 102, 57, 51, 83 (73.25)
East Carolina: 56, 84, 93, 85 (79.5)
Temple: 117, 100, 46, 66 (82.25)
South Florida: 143, 86, 59, 44 (83)
Connecticut: 121, 89, 76, 56 (85.5)
Tulane: 91, 155, 171, 135 (138)
Memphis: 107, 123, 182, 173 (146.25)

Sagarins: Mountain West 92.83 (63.45)
Boise State: 47, 41, 9, 6 (25.75)
SDSU: 78, 66, 70, 34 (62)
Nevada: 98, 80, 60, 16 (63.5)
Utah State: 41, 19, 80, 114 (63.5)
Fresno State: 54, 58, 105, 78 (73.75)
SJSU: 82, 29, 96, 161 (92)
Air Force: 161, 130, 72, 37 (100)
Hawaii: 127, 161, 97, 47 (108)
Wyoming: 134, 121, 84, 108 (111.75)
Colorado State: 71, 134, 142, 130 (119.25)
UNLV: 99, 157, 155, 131 (135.5)
New Mexico: 146, 145, 175, 170 (159)

Sagarins: Mid American 116.88 (58.73)
Northern Illinois: 59, 39, 47, 46 (47.75)
Toledo: 68, 69, 40, 92 (67.25)
Ohio: 122, 75, 68, 104 (92.25)
Bowling Green: 39, 74, 99, 163 (93.75)
Ball State: 70, 67, 100, 160 (99.25)
Kent State: 123, 60, 116, 120 (104.75)
Western Michigan: 192, 116, 78, 99 (121.25)
Central Michigan: 139, 111, 137, 134 (130.25)
Miami Ohio: 224, 125, 98, 77 (131)
Massachusetts: 193, 178, 150, 107 (157)
Buffalo: 83, 131, 135, 185 (133.5)
Eastern Michigan: 208, 146, 119, 183 (164)
Akron: 137, 169, 198, 206 (177.5)

Sagarins: Conference USA 125.12 (57.68)
Louisiana Tech: 166, 51, 48, 91 (89)
Marshall: 61, 107, 79, 113 (90)
Rice: 69, 83, 89, 127 (92)
Western Kentucky: 85, 91, 101, 165 (110.5)
North Texas: 63, 118, 121, 150 (113)
Southern Miss: 199, 167, 24, 69 (114.75)
Middle Tennessee: 103, 85, 169, 138 (123.75)
Florida International: 221, 127, 94, 88 (132.5)
Old Dominion: 133, 117, 123, 168 (134)
UTEP: 185, 138, 92, 121 (134)
UTSA: 80, 110, 220, N/A (136.7)
Florida Atlantic: 87, 137, 190, 155 (142.25)
UAB: 167, 142, 152, 116 (144.25)
Charlotte: 205, N/A, N/A, N/A (205)

Sagarins: Sun Belt 130.9 (55.97)
Arkansas State: 95, 50, 67, 117 (82.25)
Georgia Southern: 148, 72, 81, 72 (93.25)
Louisiana Lafayette: 81, 62, 82, 162 (96.75)
Troy: 115, 103, 147, 80 (111.25)
Louisiana Monroe: 128, 77, 124, 140 (117.25)
Appalachian State: 175, 115, 131, 75 (124)
South Alabama: 90, 164, 181, 122 (139.25)
Idaho: 190, 165, 141, 89 (146.25)
Texas State: 142, 124, 178, 195 (159.75)
New Mexico State: 191, 174, 133, 172 (167.5)
Georgia State: 183, 224, 208, 194 (202.25)

Just for grins:

AAC
school | 2009-12 avg | 2013 | differential avg+2013
Cincinnati | 35 | 67 | -32
South Florida | 57 | 143 | -86
Central Florida | 59 | 25 | 34
Connecticut | 62 | 121 | -59
SMU | 64 | 102 | -38
Houston | 65 | 50 | 15
Navy | 67 | 51 | 16
Temple | 71 | 117 | -46
East Carolina | 78 | 56 | 22
Tulane | 150 | 91 | 59
Memphis | 152 | 107 | 45

MWC
Boise State | 15 | 47 | -32
Nevada | 56 | 98 | -42
SDSU | 68 | 78 | -10
Air Force | 68 | 161 | -93
Fresno State | 75 | 54 | 21
Utah State | 78 | 41 | 37
Wyoming | 99 | 134 | -35
Hawaii | 102 | 127 | -25
SJSU | 106 | 82 | 24
Colorado State | 128 | 71 | 57
UNLV | 134 | 99 | 35
New Mexico | 156 | 146 | 10

steepest drop for 4-yr avg: USF (-86) and AFA (-93)

greatest gain over 4-yr avg: Tulane (59) and Colo St (57)

I'm not gonna run the numbers for C-USA -- they're on the interwebs. Surprised at the differential this year. I know CState turned the corner this year, and they're around the middle of the FBS pack -- about what their record (8-6) says they were this season.

Takeaways

-AAC numbers are trending downward as the SOS lowers for UC, USF and UConn with membership moving on from the conference. The football conference is looking more and more like CUSA 2.0. Memphis and Tulane are improving though.

-UCF is currently the #1 program in the AAC, winning the Fiesta Bowl in the first season of conference play. They are another major bowl away from taking Boise's spot as the G5 darling.

Programs on the way up:

1. UTSA (80, 110, 220)-140 spots
2. Bowling Green (39, 74, 99, 163)-124 spots
3. FAU (87, 137, 190)-103 spots
4. Buffalo (83, 131, 135, 185)-102 spots
5. South Alabama (90, 164, 181)-91 spots
6. North Texas (63, 118, 121, 150)-87 spots
7. Tulane (91, 155, 171)-80 spots
8. Western Kentucky (85, 91, 101, 165)-80 spots
9. Memphis (107, 123, 182)-75 spots
10. Colorado State (71, 134, 142)-71 spots
11. Akron (137, 169, 198, 206)-69 spots
12. Rice (69, 83, 89, 127)-58 spots
13. UCF (25, 45, 77)-53 spots
14. Fresno St (54, 58, 105)-51 spots
15. ECU (56, 84, 93)-37 spots

4 of the 8 fastest rising programs are going to be in CUSA next year which is bodes well for the development of the conference.

The MWC only has two programs on the rise, Colorado State and Fresno State while the AAC has 4 of them (Tulane, Memphis, ECU, UCF).

(01-10-2014 08:38 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Takeaways

-AAC numbers are trending downward as the SOS lowers for UC, USF and UConn with membership moving on from the conference. The football conference is looking more and more like CUSA 2.0. Memphis and Tulane are improving though.

The only dent in SOS will come from losing Ville and WVU. The others were SOS dogs. Tulane and Memphis are arguably at the same level right now as Pitt and Syracuse were when they left the league.