(01-10-2014 09:38 PM)Texas2Step Wrote:  

(01-10-2014 08:38 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Takeaways

-AAC numbers are trending downward as the SOS lowers for UC, USF and UConn with membership moving on from the conference. The football conference is looking more and more like CUSA 2.0. Memphis and Tulane are improving though.

The only dent in SOS will come from losing Ville and WVU. The others were SOS dogs. Tulane and Memphis are arguably at the same level right now as Pitt and Syracuse were when they left the league.

I don't think Tulane and Memphis are quite there yet but on their way.

The SOS is already considerably lower than Big East football with the AAC. Even with Louisiville still in the conference.

Update of the MAC's sagarin numbers following the news on UMass leaving after 2015.

UMass leaving helps the MAC out by about 1 point on average in the Sagarin ratings. It almost erases a weak finish by the conference in 2013. Five guaranteed bowls for a 12 team conference is also the best ratio in the history of the MAC.

Sagarins: Mid American 113.54 (59.55)
Northern Illinois: 59, 39, 47, 46 (47.75)
Toledo: 68, 69, 40, 92 (67.25)
Ohio: 122, 75, 68, 104 (92.25)
Bowling Green: 39, 74, 99, 163 (93.75)
Ball State: 70, 67, 100, 160 (99.25)
Kent State: 123, 60, 116, 120 (104.75)
Western Michigan: 192, 116, 78, 99 (121.25)
Central Michigan: 139, 111, 137, 134 (130.25)
Miami Ohio: 224, 125, 98, 77 (131)
Buffalo: 83, 131, 135, 185 (133.5)
Eastern Michigan: 208, 146, 119, 183 (164)
Akron: 137, 169, 198, 206 (177.5)

Looking at how the conferences are transitioning from BCS to the G5--P5 crap. The AAC wins a BCS game and a national title.
The MWC loses five NCAA tournament games and has back to back bad bowl years. Boise losing Peterson also is a big blow the AAC has clearly jumped out to the lead in the G5. The other four are hoping members make a big improvement.

(04-12-2014 09:31 AM)MJG Wrote:  Looking at how the conferences are transitioning from BCS to the G5--P5 crap. The AAC wins a BCS game and a national title.
The MWC loses five NCAA tournament games and has back to back bad bowl years. Boise losing Peterson also is a big blow the AAC has clearly jumped out to the lead in the G5. The other four are hoping members make a big improvement.

What I find interesting lately about the MWC numbers is how Utah State and San Jose State are both in the upper half of the MWC. Who would have thought it as possible 5 years ago with the long losing traditions those schools have?

The MWC looks like its due for a bunch of schools to fall back to Earth, IMO. The AAC is going in the opposite direction full of schools on the rise. The gap between the AAC and the other G5 conferences may be pronounced within 2-3 more years.

(02-28-2013 05:38 PM)PaulDel2 Wrote:  

(02-28-2013 01:16 PM)Louis Kitton Wrote:  The answer here for CUSA is fairly obvious.

Over the 8 seasons of the Top 12/Top 16 rule how many times did either CUSA, MAC or SBC place a team in a BCS bowl? It happened only 1 time with Northern Illinois making it at 12-1 over a 10-2 Boise State.

The key here for the SBC, MAC and CUSA is losses. With a lower overall strength of schedule they are going to have to finish with one less loss than a MW or BE team to have a chance.

An undefeated SBC, MAC or CUSA has a 75% shot an an Access Bowl. A one loss SBC, MAC or CUSA has a 25% shot at an Access Bowl.

Conversely, an undefeated BE or MW has a 75% shot at a spot in the playoff. A one loss BE or MW has a 50% shot at an Access Bowl.

An undefeated BE or MW team is going to be a Top 5 team and the pressure will be there from the public to include them in the playoff. The SBC, MAC and CUSA play FCS strength football so the public will feel alright about a school out of those conferences earning a token Access Bowl. Unless a school can go undefeated 3 years in a row out of one of the those leagues but the catch is that never happens.

Even an 11-2 regular season is pretty rare in the SBC, MAC or CUSA....NIU and CMU have done out of the MAC lately. I'm not sure if anyone in the SBC has ever won 11 games.

LOL, what are you smoking. No undefeated MW or BE team not named Boise will be top 5.

Umm Cincinnati, Fresno...? And it's foolish to say an undefeated Uconn, UCF, or Houston would have no shot at the top five.

(02-28-2013 11:21 PM)BuzDawg73 Wrote:  The thinking here has a major flaw in it. Schools and their football teams are not static. Schools that have been playing FCS will be recruiting better players and investing more in their programs. Schools that have been AQ, and now are not, may be negatively impacted in both recruiting and finances. The Sagarin ratings listed for the past four years show how significantly things can change from year to year. I believe this whole G5 conference thing is going to be lot closer than some people want to admit, but it is human nature to want to look for ways to feel superior. There will be good and bad teams in each conference.

It's nice to be enthusiastic but that is not necessarily true. Look at UAB, Umass, and Idaho. There are simply some schools that tried to late to be serious about football and they never will.

Football is not basketball where you can throw a few million dollars around and become a good program.

(04-12-2014 09:09 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(02-28-2013 11:21 PM)BuzDawg73 Wrote:  The thinking here has a major flaw in it. Schools and their football teams are not static. Schools that have been playing FCS will be recruiting better players and investing more in their programs. Schools that have been AQ, and now are not, may be negatively impacted in both recruiting and finances. The Sagarin ratings listed for the past four years show how significantly things can change from year to year. I believe this whole G5 conference thing is going to be lot closer than some people want to admit, but it is human nature to want to look for ways to feel superior. There will be good and bad teams in each conference.

It's nice to be enthusiastic but that is not necessarily true. Look at UAB, Umass, and Idaho. There are simply some schools that tried to late to be serious about football and they never will.

Football is not basketball where you can throw a few million dollars around and become a good program.

Those three schools have not invested enough in their game day facilities. UAB is a better school than Alabama I believe I read not 100 percent sure. They are in a football hot bed but politics and having a silly ass dragon for a mascot holds them back. A on campus stadium and the right coach and they could dominate C USA. Idaho and UMASS need to add ten thousand seats and then coaching is the key.

That would be "fluctuation".