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Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
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DadofTwins Offline
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Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
Going into the last weekend of the regular season, very little has been settled in terms of conference tournament seeds. We know what the field will be, but who plays whom is still up in the air. Here's (more than you probably want to know about) what needs to happen for your favorite team to get the seed they want:

Mercer is in the driver's seat. With one win, or one FGCU loss, they are the 1-seed and will go to the NIT even if they slip up in the conference tournament. In their building. Where they haven't lost all year. So yeah, there's that.

But even still, worst case for them is the 2-seed and a QF game on day 1.

FGCU can still sneak into the 1-slot, but they'll need some serious help. They have to beat Mercer & Kennesaw, then get help from Stetson also beating Mercer. That puts them in a tie at 13-5, which they win by virtue of their season sweep of Jacksonville.

Of course, as Adnan Hodzic & Josh Slater learned the hard way, the A-Sun's tiebreaker for the NIT autobid is whoever gets farthest in the conference tournament. At Mercer. Where they haven't lost all year.

The (sort of) good news for FGCU is that sweeping Jacksonville means they can't drop any lower than 3rd. But finishing 3rd means 3 games in 3 days, so they'll want to avoid that. The Eagles can play on Day 1 with either 1) a win over Mercer OR 2) Two Stetson losses OR 3) both FGCU & Stetson split the weekend.

Stetson has clinched the chance to wear the white jerseys in the QF. Whether that game is on Day 1 or Day 2 remains to be seen. They can get to the 2-seed (and the Wednesday game) if they 1) Beat Mercer & Kennesaw AND 2) have FGCU lose to both Mercer & Kennesaw.

How likely that might be is an exercise left to the reader.

If Jacksonville wins twice (@ Lipscomb & NKU), Stetson needs a win over Mercer to stay 3rd.

Jacksonville will be wearing white jerseys on Thursday. They can get as high as third with two wins AND a Stetson loss to Mercer. FGCU's season sweep keeps JU from having a shot at 2nd. That said, their win over Mercer means they can't drop any lower than 4th.

USC-Upstate can finish as high as 5th with a win over ETSU + one UNF loss (either @ Lipscomb or @ NKU). A win & 2 UNF wins leaves USCU 6th. Lose and USCU is 6th unless UNF wins twice, dropping the Spartans to the 7 seed.

If (somehow) USCU, UNF, & Lipscomb end up in a 3-way tie at 8-10 (technically a 4-way tie, as NKU would also be 8-10 in that scenario), the Spartans get the 6-seed by virtue of their season sweep of Lipscomb.

ETSU is in a similar spot to USCU. Win Friday night and they're the 5-seed, provided they get a minimal bit of help (they need 1 UNF loss OR 1 FGCU win OR 1 Stetson loss to make it official).

Lose and things get interesting. To finish 6th, ETSU needs 1 Lipscomb loss + 1 UNF loss + 1 of (1 FGCU win, 1 Stetson loss, OR a second UNF loss). But even if Lipscomb manages to sweep the weekend, ETSU is still 6th with 2 UNF losses + 2 Stetson wins + 2 FGCU losses.

ETSU is 7th with 1 Lipscomb loss + 1 UNF win + (EITHER (2 Stetson wins + 2 FGCU losses) OR a second UNF win). They are also 7th with 2 Lipscomb wins + (EITHER 1 Stetson loss OR 1 FGCU win).

There is a way for ETSU to drop all the way to the 8-seed, but it's a long shot. It would take losing Friday night AND 2 Lipscomb wins AND 2 NKU losses AND 2 Stetson wins AND 2 FGCU losses. That would create a 3-way tie between ETSU, UNF, and Lipscomb at 8-10 with Stetson winning the 2-seed, and would put UNF 6th, Lipscomb 7th, and ETSU 8th.

A Lipscomb fan can dream, though.

UNF can finish as high as 5th with 2 wins + (USCU beats ETSU OR (2 Stetson wins + 2 FGCU losses)). Otherwise 2 wins leaves them 6th.

They can also get to 6th with 1 win, provided Stetson wins twice AND FGCU loses twice.

There are two ways to for UNF to drop to the 8-seed. 1) 2 losses + EITHER an FGCU win OR a Stetson loss. 2) A loss to Lipscomb + Lipscomb beats Jacksonville + (either an FGCU win or a Stetson loss).

Any other outcome puts them 7th.

Lipscomb can do no better than 6th, and it will take 2 wins plus some help to get there. First Upstate has to beat ETSU. Then either FGCU has to win a game this weekend, or Stetson has to lose one.

If ETSU wins, or if Stetson catches Gulf Coast, Lipscomb can finish no higher than 7th. Likewise, if Lipscomb beats North Florida but loses to Jacksonville, a 2nd UNF loss + either a Gulf Coast win or a Stetson loss puts Lipscomb on the 7-line.

In the ETSU nightmare scenario above (2 Lipscomb wins + 2 NKU losses + 2 Stetson wins + 2 FGCU losses + USCU over ETSU), Lipscomb gets the 7-seed. (Actually, if everything else holds form here, the outcome of UNF-NKU could flip UNF & ETSU for 6th & 8th, but Lipscomb is 7th either way).

A loss to UNF puts Lipscomb 8th, as does any other scenario not already accounted for.
02-24-2013 01:50 AM
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MercerFan Offline
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RE: Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
Sweet info! It gets pretty complex for some teams. Mercer definitely needs to "just win" to put the NIT in their pocket. I haven't forgotten how Lipscomb got screwed out of the NIT.
02-24-2013 04:02 AM
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ETSUfan1 Online
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RE: Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
(02-24-2013 04:02 AM)MercerFan Wrote:  Sweet info! It gets pretty complex for some teams. Mercer definitely needs to "just win" to put the NIT in their pocket. I haven't forgotten how Lipscomb got screwed out of the NIT.

Thanks for putting this together!
02-24-2013 08:25 AM
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bigguy40 Offline
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RE: Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
Thanks for that, it was really interesting and informative!

Good luck to all.

04-rock
(This post was last modified: 02-24-2013 07:17 PM by bigguy40.)
02-24-2013 02:09 PM
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Stetson_1883 Offline
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RE: Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
Thanks DadofTwins - that was great.

That one point loss to ETSU at home really hurt SU, but as you indicated, a 3 spot is likely and sounds quite good to me...nowhere close to where anyone thought they would be.

Cheers!
02-27-2013 05:10 AM
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DadofTwins Offline
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RE: Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
After the Thursday night games:

Mercer & FGCU will be 1 and 2. FGCU needs a win and a Mercer loss to Stetson to get the 1-seed.

Stetson is 3.

Jacksonville is 4.

The winner of ETSU-Upstate is 5.

If ETSU wins, Upstate is the 6-seed and Lipscomb & UNF are playing for the 7-seed.

If Upstate wins:

A Lipscomb win against UNF puts the Bisons in the 6 slot. ETSU would be 7 and UNF 8.

A UNF win would put ETSU 6, UNF 7 and Lipscomb 8.

BTW, if there were ever a time for a "simultaneous start" rule a la the EPL, it's Saturday. Lipscomb & UNF will tip off already knowing what they have to do to avoid a 1st round game with Mercer. And it could be that the winner would get Mercer in the QF's while the loser gets FGCU. If you're Lipscomb, and you have the choice of facing a team you already beat twice on a neutral court, or a road game against a team that has already beaten you twice, which would you choose?

And would you tank a game -- even a home game on Senior Night -- to make it happen?
02-28-2013 10:57 PM
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DadofTwins Offline
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RE: Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
Fixing my errors:

Jacksonville is not the 4-seed yet.

ETSU has a win over Gulf Coast that I failed to account for. This means that if Gulf Coast ends up the 1-seed, with a win tonight and a Jacksonville loss to Northern Kentucky, ETSU is the 4 and Jacksonville is the 5.

An Upstate win clinches the 4-seed for JU.

An ETSU win also means that, no matter what else happens, UNF would be the 6-seed with a win over Lipscomb and Upstate would be the 7.

Apologies for the confusion.
03-01-2013 08:43 PM
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MercerFan Offline
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RE: Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
Time for Mercer to take care of business with Stetson!
03-02-2013 11:39 AM
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MercerFan Offline
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RE: Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
Someone needs to tell this Stetson coach he's the #3 seed no matter what...... I'm sure he knows, yet he keeps playing aggressive trailing by 14 with :40 seconds. He's risking an injury to both sides.
03-02-2013 05:18 PM
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MercerFan Offline
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RE: Tournament Seeding Possibilities for the Final Weekend
It continues with :20 seconds. Guys knocking each other down all over.

The horn finally sounds and Mercer takes the #1 seed!
(This post was last modified: 03-02-2013 05:21 PM by MercerFan.)
03-02-2013 05:20 PM
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