(02-21-2013 11:13 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 10:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 10:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 10:38 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 10:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I don't see the C7 wanting any of those schools quite frankly.... To me the biggest flight risk is Houston/SMU- but then again, the money is not that much different between the NBE and MWC at all. I think they want to remain Eastern conference members. So, if those 6 stay, the conference is fine.

Yes--but there is stability in the west....at least it wont get any worse. Not so in the nBE. With a horrible contract, no money, no exposure, probably a diminished bowl line up---whats going to hold that group together? Is the nBE really the best option at this point...for anyone?

Well....
it keeps Cincinnati out of the MAC
it keeps MTSU away from Memphis
it keeps FIU and FAU away from UCF and USF
it keeps ULL and ULM and maybe LT away from Tulane
it keeps UNT away from SMU.

It also lets Houston and SMU look east. Yay?

Based on the TCU, Boise State, Houston and Memphis contracts, anyone who wants to bail probably owes $5M. (Tulane and ECU might be able to bail for $1M if they have the clause about revenue decreasing 25% in the year before they join, but I don't think so. The conference will still be getting plenty of money from NCAA credits, and will still have the old ESPN football contract, plus exit fees.)

Im not sure if that clause refers to that type revenue since we dont receive NCAA credits earned prior to our entry. What is the total media earnings this year and what will it be next year with the new basketball contract---it may have dropped 25%. It would be close I bet.

The Memphis one says "aggregate total revenue", so that would include NCAA credits, income from the MSG tournament, exit fees, BCS bowls, other bowls, everything.

Just TV, 2012-13 I believe we're getting $13.3M for football from ESPN, $24M for basketball from ESPN and $8M from CBS. That's $45M. The new arrangement would be $13.3M + $10 plus say $2.7M from CBS for $26M. That's a drop of $19M.

Last year, West Virginia's revenue distribution would have been around $9M. (It came up as part of the settlement of the lawsuit.) So just for the football schools, the conference revenue was around $9M x 8 = $72M. Guessing wildly that the basketball schools each got 1/3 of what West Virginia got, that's another $3M x 8 = $24M. So if it's $96M, a $19M drop doesn't trigger the reduction for ECU and Tulane.

I have no idea what the purpose of that clause was.

Which is why I suspect it refers either to media revenue or expected revenue that Houston would earn in 2013--otherwise it really means nothing--but who knows. It does appear to easily trigger the clause if only media income is included--and it would likley trigger the clause based on the 2011 estimates of Houstons 2013 aggregate BE revenues vs the current expected 2013 aggregate BE revenues.

Basketball must really mean something to the NE. I, myself, will wait until March.

What a cluster this has become. No wonder West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville and Rutgers wanted out. TV markets don't mean crap unless people care in those markets.

The BE needs more schools like ECU who put 50K in the stands for podunk U instead of worrying about TV markets.

(02-21-2013 11:54 PM)jml2010 Wrote:  What a cluster this has become. No wonder West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville and Rutgers wanted out. TV markets don't mean crap unless people care in those markets.

The BE needs more schools like ECU who put 50K in the stands for podunk U instead of worrying about TV markets.

50K ... like North Texas?

(02-22-2013 12:00 AM)UConn-SMU Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 11:54 PM)jml2010 Wrote:  What a cluster this has become. No wonder West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville and Rutgers wanted out. TV markets don't mean crap unless people care in those markets.

The BE needs more schools like ECU who put 50K in the stands for podunk U instead of worrying about TV markets.

50K ... like North Texas?

Tech can't even put 50,000 in the stands

(02-21-2013 11:54 PM)jml2010 Wrote:  What a cluster this has become. No wonder West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville and Rutgers wanted out. TV markets don't mean crap unless people care in those markets.

The BE needs more schools like ECU who put 50K in the stands for podunk U instead of worrying about TV markets.

Yeah, TTU really brings in the ratings for the networks. You are lucky enough to be in a conference that is wanted by the networks, but do not kid yourself, you are not the breadwinner.

(02-21-2013 11:24 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 10:19 PM)lazydawg58 Wrote:  I don't think NBCSN is on dish network. At least I've never seen it.

Try 159, but I won't be watching.

Hey if they renamed it NBCSP then that is it, right beside MTV. No wonder I never knew it was there. Snowboarding or Pregnant at 16.

(02-21-2013 11:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 11:13 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  I have no idea what the purpose of that clause was.

Which is why I suspect it refers either to media revenue or expected revenue that Houston would earn in 2013--otherwise it really means nothing--but who knows. It does appear to easily trigger the clause if only media income is included--and it would likley trigger the clause based on the 2011 estimates of Houstons 2013 aggregate BE revenues vs the current expected 2013 aggregate BE revenues.

(a) if, prior to the Effective Date, there is a decrease of 25% or greater in the aggregate total revenue of the Conference from the prior fiscal year (July 1 through June 30), then the fee payable by the University to the Conference pursuant to this Section 9 shall be reduced to One Million Dollars ($1,000,000)

http://www.cougarinsurance.com/blog/wp-c...ntract.pdf
http://media.commercialappeal.com/media/...145045.pdf
(The Houston contract goes on to add a clause about losing AQ.)

The Effective Date is July 1, 2013. So it's talking about a reduction of revenues from 2011-12 to 2012-13. Since conference revenues are mostly predictable, it could be referring to a drop in expected 2013-14 revenues compared to 2014-15 revenues, but again, the aggregate revenue of the conference is somewhere close to $100M. Going from $32M from TV for basketball to $10M doesn't quite get you to 25%. Especially since I think exit fees would be counted under aggregate revenue.

Actually, whoa, counting exit fees moves the needle. Because 2011-12 would be $100M or so + $20M from West Virginia, or probably $10M since we can't double-count West Virginia's Big East revenue check that went into the Realignment Fund, plus $5M from TCU and $5M from Syracuse and Pitt (initial payments on their exit fees.) So $120M for 2011-12, then in 2012-13 $100M plus $10M from Syracuse and Pitt, and probably $5M from Louisville and Rutgers ($2.5M down payments), so $115M. Then in 2013, $100M minus $22M (basketball TV money), plus $15M (balance of Louisville, Rutgers) is $93M.

Then in 2014, $100M minus $22M is $78M, minus $13M is $65, plus $20M is $85. I don't think the loss of AQ means that the Big East football postseason revenue drops by $10M, which is what you need to hit the 25% mark.

It's 12:20 am. what a waste of our time.....

(02-22-2013 12:20 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 11:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 11:13 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  I have no idea what the purpose of that clause was.

Which is why I suspect it refers either to media revenue or expected revenue that Houston would earn in 2013--otherwise it really means nothing--but who knows. It does appear to easily trigger the clause if only media income is included--and it would likley trigger the clause based on the 2011 estimates of Houstons 2013 aggregate BE revenues vs the current expected 2013 aggregate BE revenues.

(a) if, prior to the Effective Date, there is a decrease of 25% or greater in the aggregate total revenue of the Conference from the prior fiscal year (July 1 through June 30), then the fee payable by the University to the Conference pursuant to this Section 9 shall be reduced to One Million Dollars ($1,000,000)

http://www.cougarinsurance.com/blog/wp-c...ntract.pdf
http://media.commercialappeal.com/media/...145045.pdf
(The Houston contract goes on to add a clause about losing AQ.)

The Effective Date is July 1, 2013. So it's talking about a reduction of revenues from 2011-12 to 2012-13. Since conference revenues are mostly predictable, it could be referring to a drop in expected 2013-14 revenues compared to 2014-15 revenues, but again, the aggregate revenue of the conference is somewhere close to $100M. Going from $32M from TV for basketball to $10M doesn't quite get you to 25%. Especially since I think exit fees would be counted under aggregate revenue.

Actually, whoa, counting exit fees moves the needle. Because 2011-12 would be $100M or so + $20M from West Virginia, or probably $10M since we can't double-count West Virginia's Big East revenue check that went into the Realignment Fund, plus $5M from TCU and $5M from Syracuse and Pitt (initial payments on their exit fees.) So $120M for 2011-12, then in 2012-13 $100M plus $10M from Syracuse and Pitt, and probably $5M from Louisville and Rutgers ($2.5M down payments), so $115M. Then in 2013, $100M minus $22M (basketball TV money), plus $15M (balance of Louisville, Rutgers) is $93M.

Then in 2014, $100M minus $22M is $78M, minus $13M is $65, plus $20M is $85. I don't think the loss of AQ means that the Big East football postseason revenue drops by $10M, which is what you need to hit the 25% mark.

It's 12:20 am. what a waste of our time.....

Lol...it looks like that clause was a huge waste of time. Im not sure anything short of a thermonuclear exchange would have made a 25% difference in aggregate revenue. I have no idea what they were trying to protect themselves from. If they wanted to protect themselves they should have based it on the difference between CUSA earnings and Big East earnings.

Yeah. looks like exit fee for Houston or SMU would be $5 million now to not join the conference. it was either what was posted before or if BE was informed of them not being AQ. Well, that was in November, so that time has passed now.

I think if Houston/SMU bails, you'd find 2 teams willing to jump for the 2013 season. BE would probably pay their exit fee to get in early.

(02-21-2013 10:06 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 09:54 PM)94panther Wrote:  In 2014, the Big East will make as much money off of exit fees (Lou/Rut @ $10m each), as their entire football/basketball contract.

NBC screwed themselves in offering such a low amount.

We all knew NBC was cheap. They are stuck with CAA and Ivy League sports. What a joke. The money ESPN is paying is like chump change to them.

NBC can still counter offer I believe. ESPN has the right to match the _final_ offer. So if NBC throws another offer out there, ESPN would then have to up it to match it.

So this isn't over yet, IMO.

(02-21-2013 11:24 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 10:19 PM)lazydawg58 Wrote:  I don't think NBCSN is on dish network. At least I've never seen it.

Try 159, but I won't be watching.

It's on Dish, the problem is, that DISH put it on their 250-package, not their 200 and doesn't include it in their sports package... (I know, because I actually had to call Dish to ask about whether or not it was the sports package (which I have), and they offered to up me to their 250-channel package (which I don't have) to get it and I turned them down.)

(02-22-2013 02:12 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 10:06 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 09:54 PM)94panther Wrote:  In 2014, the Big East will make as much money off of exit fees (Lou/Rut @ $10m each), as their entire football/basketball contract.

NBC screwed themselves in offering such a low amount.

We all knew NBC was cheap. They are stuck with CAA and Ivy League sports. What a joke. The money ESPN is paying is like chump change to them.

NBC can still counter offer I believe. ESPN has the right to match the _final_ offer. So if NBC throws another offer out there, ESPN would then have to up it to match it.

So this isn't over yet, IMO.

Maybe. The reporting certainly would lead one to believe it is.

(02-21-2013 10:00 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(02-21-2013 09:54 PM)94panther Wrote:  In 2014, the Big East will make as much money off of exit fees (Lou/Rut @ $10m each), as their entire football/basketball contract.

NBC screwed themselves in offering such a low amount.

Yeah but the new schools don't get any of that. So we are paying entrance/exit fees which will take 5-6 years of this contract to break even.

Bingo. The pin in the grenade is officially pulled. The question is whether the prospective nBE schools want to keep their hand on the spoon hoping for a miracle.

Hint: The gap between the patience/altruism of the C7 and the $$ they have at stake keeps growing and growing. If any decision makers at the prospective schools have actually had their fingers in their ears when it comes to contingency plans - or, worse, have just been planning to "backfill" with a few phone calls - a full FUBAR could be brewing (not being familiar with ALL of them, my suspicion is that they have to be preparing for the East/West contingency now but they can't admit that to their fans or boosters).

Some schools wanted into the nBE so bad they would have taken this and paid more to get in.

It will take the new schools close to 10 years to break even on this deal.

(02-21-2013 08:53 PM)gocards#1 Wrote:  We're taking a massive paycut thanks to those "great" markets Aresco decided to add featuring teams nobody wants to watch on TV. What a crock. Please please please ACC let us join a year early! We'll take a reduced payout if we have to! Just get us the F out!

Its sad. Its just very sad the way its happened....

(02-22-2013 06:54 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  It will take the new schools close to 10 years to break even on this deal.

Not really. The ex-C-USA schools are paying $500,000 to get out. They're paying $2,500,000 in entry fees to the New Big East ($500,000 per year). They're going from C-USA making $1,116,667 to making $2,000,000 in TV.

Let's call the basketball contract $500,000 per school for 2013-14. That puts their payout at about $1.8M before entry fees, $1.3M after entry fees. So they're now down $300,000 or so if you only factor exit fees, entry fees and TV money.

After 2014-15, they get paid $2M, $1.5M after entry fee. So their exit fee is paid off with a surplus of $100,000 or so.

That's if the Realignment Fund money just sits in the bank.

Welp now we all know what the value of this league is without any decent programs. Had Pitt, WVU, Syracuse, Louisville, and Rutgers stayed we'd all be getting about $14 million a year, or 7x what UCF, Memphis, Temple, Houston, and SMU bring. Nice job Aresco! You really showed everyone how not to expand a conference! Those crap programs in good TV markets really draw interest from TV executives, don't they? As a former TV executive, you really show your skills! Welcome to the "new Big East" everyone!

I'm not complaining though. Had the Big East taken the deal last summer we wouldn't be headed to the ACC next summer. The only downside is we actually have to play in this halfassed abortion. Ugh. Just one more year of this garbage league and we're off to a real conference with a real TV deal with real programs with real fanbases. Just gotta drag ourselves through 10 feet of **** until next June. Anyone got a time machine?

(02-21-2013 11:54 PM)jml2010 Wrote:  The BE needs more schools like ECU who put 50K in the stands for podunk U instead of worrying about TV markets.

The problem is that, except for ECU and BYU, those schools are all in power conferences already. And ECU hasn't been pulling in 50,000 per game forever--that's a pretty recent development.

Quote:The question is whether the prospective nBE schools want to keep their hand on the spoon hoping for a miracle.

The incoming schools probably can't afford to pay the $5M "TCU fee" for not joining. They'd save $2.5M on entry fees, and $500,000 on C-USA exit fees, so the total cost would only be $2M, but that's still $2M to go back to what C-USA is now.

I just processed that the incoming schools DON'T share in the NCAA tournament credits. That makes it much more likely that that money gets split 70-30, since there are 10 (maybe 11 counting Notre Dame) non-withdrawing schools splitting that pot. The noob schools would get a share of whatever Louisville and Notre DAme earn next year, though.

It could very well be that the math on selling the name to the C-7 changes when the new, cash-poor schools come in. There are going to be 7 C-7 votes, 5 NBE votes, and 3 votes for UConn/Cincy/USF. Maybe Notre Dame votes if the C-7 votes, I don't know. And the bylaws don't quite prohibit Louisville and Rutgers from voting, either, for that matter.