(02-15-2013 12:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  We can't force them to do something that would hurt them just to help us. When you say it may screw the Aresco league- that's just a non-starter... Be realistic.

THey'd be taking more money now for even less stability--they'd have to go back to market for their post-2014 TV contract. At $20M a year or less, they might want to do that.

They'd have the choice to take the NBC over the Fox bid, saying that at $2M a year the NBC bid takes care of us while giving them stability and exposure. That's fine. But if I were Fox, I'd put the bid in--worst thing that happens, Aresco says "No." Maybe UConn and Cinci call up Aresco and say "take it!"

(02-15-2013 06:00 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 12:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  We can't force them to do something that would hurt them just to help us. When you say it may screw the Aresco league- that's just a non-starter... Be realistic.

THey'd be taking more money now for even less stability--they'd have to go back to market for their post-2014 TV contract. At $20M a year or less, they might want to do that.

They'd have the choice to take the NBC over the Fox bid, saying that at $2M a year the NBC bid takes care of us while giving them stability and exposure. That's fine. But if I were Fox, I'd put the bid in--worst thing that happens, Aresco says "No." Maybe UConn and Cinci call up Aresco and say "take it!"

The problem is, there would be no guarantee of the post-2014 contract. Aresco probably put out that 1 year bids would not be considered.

Why do so many schools want to spend (and lose) so much money on a sport they will never win a championship in?

If you are not Alabama, USC, Texas, OU, LSU, OSU, Oregon, UCLA, Nebraska, etc., you are completely irrelevant.

(02-15-2013 12:18 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-14-2013 11:25 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  IMO, the appeal of the C7 isn't so much the teams, it's the matchups. Georgetown v. Villanova makes for MUCH better TV than Memphis v. Houston, even though arguably the talent is even, the number of fans are comperable, and the growth potential for the schools is similar. GU and VU have a history, a similar location, and a lot of cultural similarities that make the game interesting. Although that will be present next year, it will be watered down by a ton of C7 v. USF/UCF/SMU/ECU/Tulane/Houston games which doesn't make for good TV. So, C7 games aren't as valuable next year as they will be in two years.

I don't really agree. I go back to what you said about matchups. What made the Big East such a television property from 2005-12 was the large amount and variety of matchups. You had Louisville, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, St Johns, and Cincinnati playing a round robin. That's 55 matchups of tournament-quality teams (I'm including St Johns because of TV.) Plus some rematches, and a handful of games against a doormat program having a good year. That's your 75 ESPN/2/U games right there.

The 2013-14 league has Louisville, UConn, Memphis, Temple, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, St Johns and MArquette. That's 45 round robin games, plus a handful of rematches and games against someone who rises up from the muck.

You compared Georgetown vs Villanova to Memphis vs Houston, but the fairer comparison would have been GT vs VU against Memphis vs Temple. No history, not neighbors. But that's a good game.

The league suffers next year because you have fewer Louisville-UConn-Syracuse matchups. And because there are 18 teams not 16, so fewer home-and-homes mean fewer quality matchup home-and-homes.

I'd still recommend that Fox put in a bid for the Big East 2013-14 rights at $54M ($3M per school.) Right away, FoxSports1 is a player on college basketball, which helps the value of the long-term C7 contract.

It may screw the Aresco League a little harder, because they may be using the one-year basketball as leverage to get NBC to take their long-term package, but I can't imagine it would get worse than $20M per year.

I guess we will have a chance to see in about a year. I think that you over value raw numbers, and undervalue the importance of tradition and cultural similarity, but I think that we are saying something similar in the sense that the nBE will have fewer "good matches" per game which is what is killing the value. You also mentioned home and homes. I assume that you did this because you think that it will spark rivalries, which is good for TV. If so, I agree, but I also want to point out that rivalries flourish when there are cultural and geographic similarities as well, which, IMO is much of the value of the C7. The '05-'12 BE was/is loaded with great programs, but many of those programs were made great by the BE and competing in the competitive, rivalry-filled environment of the conference. I used Houston, because it takes into account the fact that the conference is more spreadout. The conference will go from UCONN to USF to SMU to UC. That's a big area. The C7 is much more compact. Prov, STJ, and SH are all very close and 'Nova and GU aren't very far away. The only two outliers are Marquette and DePaul.

*A TV company can always get more games. The only added cost is the cost of the extra transaction, and that isn't very expensive. The FMV of the games is the FMV of the games, so it washes.
*I think that you overvalue STJ's NYC presence for TV dollars. The only things that matter when it comes to tv are: the number of people that care, the amount of people that care, and the potential to grow. Location only affects the 3rd catagory, and even then it isn't as simple as being in a big city. If it was, teh fb programs at ND, 'Bama, PSU, UF, Tennessee, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and so on would be broke, and teh fb programs at Rutgers and Northwestern would be rolling in the cash.

(02-13-2013 11:45 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  If UConn comes with us, they're putting their football in the MAC. They should dominate the MAC, which will keep attendance up and get them some attention.

You do realize UConn has lost to a middle of the league MAC team in Western Michigan the last two seasons and also lost to Temple when they were in the MAC. I doubt they would dominate the MAC. They would be exactly what they are now in the BE in football, a middle of the pack team.

imo, uconn would be better served remaining where they are. the state is pumping alot of $$ into the program and the university in general. they are much more likely to "get the call" while in the nBE than they would in the mac or as an indy and a hybrid c7

(02-15-2013 09:22 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  imo, uconn would be better served remaining where they are. the state is pumping alot of $$ into the program and the university in general. they are much more likely to "get the call" while in the nBE than they would in the mac or as an indy and a hybrid c7

I'm not sure. The C7 would mean more money and better basketball. The nBE would mean slightly better than MAC football, but I'm not sure that it would be tangibly better.

I think a factor would be women's basketball for UConn(one of about 5 schools that this would be a factor).

C7 has DePaul already really good. Villanova good as well... coming in is Dayton(ranked #15). Not great but at least 3 solid schools with UConn...

in the NBE no teams are ranked at all. heck, no one is even receiving votes this week believe it or not.

(02-15-2013 03:29 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 12:18 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  I don't really agree. I go back to what you said about matchups. What made the Big East such a television property from 2005-12 was the large amount and variety of matchups. You had Louisville, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, St Johns, and Cincinnati playing a round robin. That's 55 matchups of tournament-quality teams (I'm including St Johns because of TV.) Plus some rematches, and a handful of games against a doormat program having a good year. That's your 75 ESPN/2/U games right there.

The 2013-14 league has Louisville, UConn, Memphis, Temple, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, St Johns and MArquette. That's 45 round robin games, plus a handful of rematches and games against someone who rises up from the muck.

You compared Georgetown vs Villanova to Memphis vs Houston, but the fairer comparison would have been GT vs VU against Memphis vs Temple. No history, not neighbors. But that's a good game.

The league suffers next year because you have fewer Louisville-UConn-Syracuse matchups. And because there are 18 teams not 16, so fewer home-and-homes mean fewer quality matchup home-and-homes.

I'd still recommend that Fox put in a bid for the Big East 2013-14 rights at $54M ($3M per school.) Right away, FoxSports1 is a player on college basketball, which helps the value of the long-term C7 contract.

It may screw the Aresco League a little harder, because they may be using the one-year basketball as leverage to get NBC to take their long-term package, but I can't imagine it would get worse than $20M per year.

I guess we will have a chance to see in about a year. I think that you over value raw numbers, and undervalue the importance of tradition and cultural similarity, but I think that we are saying something similar in the sense that the nBE will have fewer "good matches" per game which is what is killing the value.

NBE has less of both. History gives Georgetown-Villanova a spice that Memphis-Temple doesn't have.

We have Georgetown-Villanova. They have Memphis-Cincinatti. But we have more games like that.
We have Georgetown-Butler. They have Memphis-UConn. We have more games like that, too.
We have Xavier-Providence. They have UConn-Houston. Both sides have a lot of those.
And we have about a dozen dog games like Depaul-Providence. They have a TON of those.

Quote:You also mentioned home and homes. I assume that you did this because you think that it will spark rivalries, which is good for TV.

Actually, more just volume. IF St Johns-Butler is good once for TV, it's good twice for TV. If you can do a rivalry game between two relevant teams, even better.

Quote:If so, I agree, but I also want to point out that rivalries flourish when there are cultural and geographic similarities as well, which, IMO is much of the value of the C7. The '05-'12 BE was/is loaded with great programs, but many of those programs were made great by the BE and competing in the competitive, rivalry-filled environment of the conference. I used Houston, because it takes into account the fact that the conference is more spreadout.

Hmmm. Proximity gives a boost. But I think the value of Syracuse-Uconn or Syracuse-Georgetown is more their history as top 10 programs competing against each other. I think if Memphis and UConn had been playing each other for 20 or 30 years, that would be as much a rivalry game as Syracuse-Georgetown.

Quote:The conference will go from UCONN to USF to SMU to UC. That's a big area. The C7 is much more compact. Prov, STJ, and SH are all very close and 'Nova and GU aren't very far away. The only two outliers are Marquette and DePaul.

I don't think the Achilles heel of the NBE basketball league is distance. I think it's that they just don't have many attractive programs or attractive matchups.

Quote:*A TV company can always get more games. The only added cost is the cost of the extra transaction, and that isn't very expensive. The FMV of the games is the FMV of the games, so it washes.

I think that's applied in the past, when the games were being sold between different levels--CBS, ESPN, RSNs/CBS-SN. I don't think you'll see games being sold between equal tiers (ESPN/FoxSports1).

Quote:*I think that you overvalue STJ's NYC presence for TV dollars. The only things that matter when it comes to tv are: the number of people that care,

NYC's No. 1 (No. 2 if you ask Cuse fans) team brings enough people that care to make a St Johns game the equivalent of a tournament-team game.

the amount of people that care, and the potential to grow. Location only affects the 3rd catagory, and even then it isn't as simple as being in a big city. If it was, teh fb programs at ND, 'Bama, PSU, UF, Tennessee, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and so on would be broke, and teh fb programs at Rutgers and Northwestern would be rolling in the cash.
[/quote]

St Johns basketball is more like Tennessee football--not good or "relevant" lately, but a whole lot of people watching, and a whole lot of people ready to get on the bandwagon

The other thing about St. John's is their ability to get big names on their OOC schedule. Duke, UCLA, Ohio St. (A couple of years ago), Cuse and many more want to play at MSG. TV networks want to air these games. That makes them very valuable.

(02-15-2013 12:18 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-14-2013 11:25 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  IMO, the appeal of the C7 isn't so much the teams, it's the matchups. Georgetown v. Villanova makes for MUCH better TV than Memphis v. Houston, even though arguably the talent is even, the number of fans are comperable, and the growth potential for the schools is similar. GU and VU have a history, a similar location, and a lot of cultural similarities that make the game interesting. Although that will be present next year, it will be watered down by a ton of C7 v. USF/UCF/SMU/ECU/Tulane/Houston games which doesn't make for good TV. So, C7 games aren't as valuable next year as they will be in two years.

I don't really agree. I go back to what you said about matchups. What made the Big East such a television property from 2005-12 was the large amount and variety of matchups. You had Louisville, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, St Johns, and Cincinnati playing a round robin. That's 55 matchups of tournament-quality teams (I'm including St Johns because of TV.) Plus some rematches, and a handful of games against a doormat program having a good year. That's your 75 ESPN/2/U games right there.
The 2013-14 league has Louisville, UConn, Memphis, Temple, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, St Johns and MArquette. That's 45 round robin games, plus a handful of rematches and games against someone who rises up from the muck.

You compared Georgetown vs Villanova to Memphis vs Houston, but the fairer comparison would have been GT vs VU against Memphis vs Temple. No history, not neighbors. But that's a good game.

The league suffers next year because you have fewer Louisville-UConn-Syracuse matchups. And because there are 18 teams not 16, so fewer home-and-homes mean fewer quality matchup home-and-homes.

I'd still recommend that Fox put in a bid for the Big East 2013-14 rights at $54M ($3M per school.) Right away, FoxSports1 is a player on college basketball, which helps the value of the long-term C7 contract.

It may screw the Aresco League a little harder, because they may be using the one-year basketball as leverage to get NBC to take their long-term package, but I can't imagine it would get worse than $20M per year.

I think the Fox thing is a good idea. NBC is getting the nBE for nothing. They are not going to walk away. Even if they do, I doubt the nBE is much worse off. ESPN had the highest bid on the table anyway. The nBE can split the rights between ESPN and Fox Sports-1/Fox Sports-2 and grow with that network just as easily as they could with NBC. Let the nBE anchor Fox Sports-2. As soon as they start pushing nBE games and some Big-12/Pac-12 games over to Fox Sports 2 the carriage numbers will pick up quick. Letting Fox bid on the 2013-2014 season makes everyone more money.

(02-16-2013 10:51 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-15-2013 03:29 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  I guess we will have a chance to see in about a year. I think that you over value raw numbers, and undervalue the importance of tradition and cultural similarity, but I think that we are saying something similar in the sense that the nBE will have fewer "good matches" per game which is what is killing the value.

NBE has less of both. History gives Georgetown-Villanova a spice that Memphis-Temple doesn't have.

That's exactly my point.

Quote:

Quote:You also mentioned home and homes. I assume that you did this because you think that it will spark rivalries, which is good for TV.

Actually, more just volume. IF St Johns-Butler is good once for TV, it's good twice for TV. If you can do a rivalry game between two relevant teams, even better.

Once again, I agree that the C7 has compelling matchups and a small conference would keep that. That's why I said "IMO, the appeal of the C7 isn't so much the teams, it's the matchups."

Quote:

Quote:If so, I agree, but I also want to point out that rivalries flourish when there are cultural and geographic similarities as well, which, IMO is much of the value of the C7. The '05-'12 BE was/is loaded with great programs, but many of those programs were made great by the BE and competing in the competitive, rivalry-filled environment of the conference. I used Houston, because it takes into account the fact that the conference is more spreadout.

Hmmm. Proximity gives a boost. But I think the value of Syracuse-Uconn or Syracuse-Georgetown is more their history as top 10 programs competing against each other. I think if Memphis and UConn had been playing each other for 20 or 30 years, that would be as much a rivalry game as Syracuse-Georgetown.

How do you think they became top 10 programs? Much of the BIG EAST consisted of promising upstarts in the '70's. The rivalry of the conference is what made them turn from promising upstarts to dominant players. Both Syracuse and UCONN are great examples.

Quote:

Quote:The conference will go from UCONN to USF to SMU to UC. That's a big area. The C7 is much more compact. Prov, STJ, and SH are all very close and 'Nova and GU aren't very far away. The only two outliers are Marquette and DePaul.

I don't think the Achilles heel of the NBE basketball league is distance. I think it's that they just don't have many attractive programs or attractive matchups.

That may be the case, but it won't change without rivalries, and that is MUCH less likely to happen when fan bases don't interact, and fan bases almost always only interact when teams are close together. I can count the number of USF fans who I have seen in Syracuse on one hand. I cannot do that with WVU fans. Guess who I hate losing to more?

Quote:

Quote:*A TV company can always get more games. The only added cost is the cost of the extra transaction, and that isn't very expensive. The FMV of the games is the FMV of the games, so it washes.

I think that's applied in the past, when the games were being sold between different levels--CBS, ESPN, RSNs/CBS-SN. I don't think you'll see games being sold between equal tiers (ESPN/FoxSports1).

Maybe, but just because it won't happen doesn't mean it couldn't happen. I agree that it will not happen very often, but that's because everyone has solid content. Splitting the C7 improved matchups and elminated the need to sell off football. I do not think that the primary motivation was to avoid having to repackage football. It was to create marketable basketball games.

Quote:

Quote:*I think that you overvalue STJ's NYC presence for TV dollars. The only things that matter when it comes to tv are: the number of people that care,

NYC's No. 1 (No. 2 if you ask Cuse fans) team brings enough people that care to make a St Johns game the equivalent of a tournament-team game.

Yes, but you were talking about TV revenue which is different. Anyway, that isn't because STJ is in NYC. It's because STJ has a history of playing high-level basketball games. If STj had the same number of fans and the same support as they do now and they were located in a small city like Syracuse, or in Kansas, or in Durham, or in Kentucky, then I can assure you that they would be just as valuable.

Quote:

Quote: the amount of people that care, and the potential to grow. Location only affects the 3rd catagory, and even then it isn't as simple as being in a big city. If it was, teh fb programs at ND, 'Bama, PSU, UF, Tennessee, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and so on would be broke, and teh fb programs at Rutgers and Northwestern would be rolling in the cash.

St Johns basketball is more like Tennessee football--not good or "relevant" lately, but a whole lot of people watching, and a whole lot of people ready to get on the bandwagon

That may be true, but it has next to nothing to do with STJ's location. It is because of STJ's history.