(02-05-2013 02:09 PM)Title Wrote:  You just took several metrics not intended to be used together, then used them together. You also did so for two years. If you are going to bastardize RPI/Sagarin/Pomeroy, at least do it over some kind of relevant time span. (say 10 to 15 years)

Me, I don't mind mixing those. The poster was consistent across the board about it.

The bigger issue is SLU's real lack of success historically. 8 trips to the NCAA's total, 1 in the last 10 years, 5 in the last 20.

On the other hand, you've had consistently good attendance with mediocre-at-best teams. So I'm not as worried as I was about you.

(02-05-2013 02:17 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:09 PM)Title Wrote:  You just took several metrics not intended to be used together, then used them together. You also did so for two years. If you are going to bastardize RPI/Sagarin/Pomeroy, at least do it over some kind of relevant time span. (say 10 to 15 years)

Me, I don't mind mixing those. The poster was consistent across the board about it.

The bigger issue is SLU's real lack of success historically. 8 trips to the NCAA's total, 1 in the last 10 years, 5 in the last 20.

On the other hand, you've had consistently good attendance with mediocre-at-best teams. So I'm not as worried as I was about you.

While we definitely don't have the historical success, why exactly is that a major concern?

Think about Duke from the 1970s moving to the present (not saying we are the next Duke, but just an illustration). They had little to no history, but became a top program due to a number of factors, mostly their coach. VCU and Butler are other more recent programs that could end up like that with young, charismatic coaches at the helm. But programs change, and the past isn't always a good predictor of the future - the Billikens seem to be trending in the right direction, with the stability and resources to maintain our recent improvement.

(02-05-2013 02:24 PM)Billiken_Zink Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:17 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:09 PM)Title Wrote:  You just took several metrics not intended to be used together, then used them together. You also did so for two years. If you are going to bastardize RPI/Sagarin/Pomeroy, at least do it over some kind of relevant time span. (say 10 to 15 years)

Me, I don't mind mixing those. The poster was consistent across the board about it.

The bigger issue is SLU's real lack of success historically. 8 trips to the NCAA's total, 1 in the last 10 years, 5 in the last 20.

On the other hand, you've had consistently good attendance with mediocre-at-best teams. So I'm not as worried as I was about you.

While we definitely don't have the historical success, why exactly is that a major concern?

Think about Duke from the 1970s moving to the present (not saying we are the next Duke, but just an illustration). They had little to no history, but became a top program due to a number of factors, mostly their coach. VCU and Butler are other more recent programs that could end up like that with young, charismatic coaches at the helm. But programs change, and the past isn't always a good predictor of the future - the Billikens seem to be trending in the right direction, with the stability and resources to maintain our recent improvement.

The concern is that we'd be taking a program at the crest of a wave. After a wave crests, it crashes down. That basically happened with DePaul entering the Big East.

Quote:and the past isn't always a good predictor of the future

Not always, but it's the way to bet.

I've softened on Saint Louis--consistently good attendance and good resources mean that you'll always have the potential to start contending in the Big East. Worst case scenario, you're what Henry Kissinger may have said about Brazil "They are the country of the future and always will be." Sooner or later, SLU will figure it out. Probably later.

(02-05-2013 02:56 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:24 PM)Billiken_Zink Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:17 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:09 PM)Title Wrote:  You just took several metrics not intended to be used together, then used them together. You also did so for two years. If you are going to bastardize RPI/Sagarin/Pomeroy, at least do it over some kind of relevant time span. (say 10 to 15 years)

Me, I don't mind mixing those. The poster was consistent across the board about it.

The bigger issue is SLU's real lack of success historically. 8 trips to the NCAA's total, 1 in the last 10 years, 5 in the last 20.

On the other hand, you've had consistently good attendance with mediocre-at-best teams. So I'm not as worried as I was about you.

While we definitely don't have the historical success, why exactly is that a major concern?

Think about Duke from the 1970s moving to the present (not saying we are the next Duke, but just an illustration). They had little to no history, but became a top program due to a number of factors, mostly their coach. VCU and Butler are other more recent programs that could end up like that with young, charismatic coaches at the helm. But programs change, and the past isn't always a good predictor of the future - the Billikens seem to be trending in the right direction, with the stability and resources to maintain our recent improvement.

The concern is that we'd be taking a program at the crest of a wave. After a wave crests, it crashes down. That basically happened with DePaul entering the Big East.

Quote:and the past isn't always a good predictor of the future

Not always, but it's the way to bet.

I've softened on Saint Louis--consistently good attendance and good resources mean that you'll always have the potential to start contending in the Big East. Worst case scenario, you're what Henry Kissinger may have said about Brazil "They are the country of the future and always will be." Sooner or later, SLU will figure it out. Probably later.

Good quote, I hope (and believe) it will be sooner. SLU fans sure are eager to find out, and I can assure you that any confidence you have seen from us fans in that regard has been fluff to some extent. The foundation for continued success has been laid and the past couple of years have been promising, but Billiken fans know all too well that s**t happens. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

(02-05-2013 03:09 PM)Billiken_Zink Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:56 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:24 PM)Billiken_Zink Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:17 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-05-2013 02:09 PM)Title Wrote:  You just took several metrics not intended to be used together, then used them together. You also did so for two years. If you are going to bastardize RPI/Sagarin/Pomeroy, at least do it over some kind of relevant time span. (say 10 to 15 years)

Me, I don't mind mixing those. The poster was consistent across the board about it.

The bigger issue is SLU's real lack of success historically. 8 trips to the NCAA's total, 1 in the last 10 years, 5 in the last 20.

On the other hand, you've had consistently good attendance with mediocre-at-best teams. So I'm not as worried as I was about you.

While we definitely don't have the historical success, why exactly is that a major concern?

Think about Duke from the 1970s moving to the present (not saying we are the next Duke, but just an illustration). They had little to no history, but became a top program due to a number of factors, mostly their coach. VCU and Butler are other more recent programs that could end up like that with young, charismatic coaches at the helm. But programs change, and the past isn't always a good predictor of the future - the Billikens seem to be trending in the right direction, with the stability and resources to maintain our recent improvement.

The concern is that we'd be taking a program at the crest of a wave. After a wave crests, it crashes down. That basically happened with DePaul entering the Big East.

Quote:and the past isn't always a good predictor of the future

Not always, but it's the way to bet.

I've softened on Saint Louis--consistently good attendance and good resources mean that you'll always have the potential to start contending in the Big East. Worst case scenario, you're what Henry Kissinger may have said about Brazil "They are the country of the future and always will be." Sooner or later, SLU will figure it out. Probably later.

Good quote, I hope (and believe) it will be sooner. SLU fans sure are eager to find out, and I can assure you that any confidence you have seen from us fans in that regard has been fluff to some extent. The foundation for continued success has been laid and the past couple of years have been promising, but Billiken fans know all too well that s**t happens. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Stuff happens is the unofficial Billiken motto. (Sponsored by John Cook)

I think a lot will depend on who they hire. Majerus did a lot to help make SLU better, but with him gone now, you have to wonder if they can continue improving or if someone else will struggle. IF they're willing to spend the money that some claim, they have a good shot at hiring someone who can come in and keep the ball rolling. Time will tell.

(02-05-2013 04:11 PM)SubGod22 Wrote:  I think a lot will depend on who they hire. Majerus did a lot to help make SLU better, but with him gone now, you have to wonder if they can continue improving or if someone else will struggle. IF they're willing to spend the money that some claim, they have a good shot at hiring someone who can come in and keep the ball rolling. Time will tell.

That is the $64,000 (and a lot more) question.

i honesty think slu would be a great addition in many different ways. i think they would be happy to be part of the c7 and the league would be a final destination for them (like most of the c7) . im not sure i feel the same way about ALL the teams mentioned as candidates

Greetings. New poster to the board --- PA born and raised. Saint Louis graduate with 35+ year association with program. East Coast resident (Baltimore). Friends in Dayton, Cincy. In-person traveler for SLU games up and down east coast as well as CUSA/A10 tourneys in Cincy, Louisville, B'ham and Atlantic City. HS friend Nova grad/season ticketholder.

I read with great interest where you all think this is going. I know Saint Louis would be a good addition; we competed well-enough in CUSA with the likes of Cincy, Louisville, Marquette, DePaul, UAB and Memphis while in there. We'll be fine. Folks on our board have longed for "the Papal Conference" for quite some time. We/I based it on like-minded institutions in urban areas with similar doctrines and no real football issues. Frankly, this is not Wichita State and VCU to me. We used to wipe our arse with Butler in the old Midwestern Cities Conference. They are the hot chick at the prom right now. So is VCU. VCU upgraded to the A10 because the Colonial was a "Juan-bid" league and upsets happen. The A10 is good for about 4 bids per year. We fully expect to be back in the dance this year. If you go back 20 years, we're okay. Ten, not so good. But the same can be said for Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's and DePaul in side-by-side comparisons. Going back twenty is irrelevant; kids you are recruiting today don't know the last five years let alone 10 or 20. The guy that compared two seasons got ridiculed; it would happen to anyone. If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bullshat; if all else fails, use statistics.

Dayton fans also love their team. We do not and refer to it as SweaterVest University. There might be some old bad blood between us and Marquette versus Dayton due to an old breakup that led to Dayton being left behind when CUSA was formed. Dayton has won more preseason conference championships than any other school I know. But they will put 13K fans in the YouDee arena for the 64/65 game (gone now) then any other town I know also.

We'll hold our own. We are trending up, for now. The Majerus situation makes this new coaching hire key for our future and sustainability of the program. We return seven of our ten main guys for next year, but only have two unknown redshirts for what would be our sophomore class, and only one recruit in the fold for the freshman class. But that is likely due to the uncertainty at the head coaching spot.

Xavier is the class of the so-called mid-major programs, although they don't like to consider themselves as a mid-major. The standard bearers there are X and Gonzaga. Butler and VCU are current flavors of the month riding recent success -- they deserve that. I've seen "Havoc" now play three times this year --- I'm thinking Shaka might have missed the bus on riding the wave when he was hot. They are not waltzing through the A10 like they did in the Colonial. If you count ten years, Creighton has made four NCAA appearances, going 1 and 4 over that time. I remeber when SIU Carbondale was the toast of the Valley; before them Northern Iowa, Wichita State and Bradley. It happens. The McDermott kid is a junior; does he go pro early? Does dad the coach then bail out? And if Omaha and St. Louis are too far away, why would you travel to Spokane, San Diego and Moraga, California to play games? And don't forget games including the volleyball or field hockey teams.

We'll continue to monitor but we'll be fine all the same. And if TV FOX is running this, St. Louis is around the 19th largest TV market in the country. Count me in the camp that would advocate Richmond over VCU as well.

Damn glad to be here.