(02-01-2013 04:08 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: johnbragg - The issue that I have is that you seem to believe that the C7 doesn't have a choice here other than going by who we would pick first in a game of pickup hoops today, whereas I think they have a lot more power in their sphere (specifically, non-FBS Division I schools) than you give them credit for. Sure, the C7 is piddly when compared to the Big Ten/SEC/Big 12/Pac-12/ACC. Everyone knows that. However, when you get outside of that top sphere, the C7 is about as strong as you can get brand-wise (and that strength has a tangential relationship to on-the-court performance, but it's NOT *all* about on-the-court performance).
Regardless, let's put aside the "all or nothing" debate - it's not 100% about cultural fit (or else Butler wouldn't be invited) or 100% about performance (or else Dayton and SLU wouldn't be considered at all). This is about what balance each candidate brings. Duquense, for instance, would be a fantastic cultural fit (top 10% on that metric of the reasonably available schools), but none of us here that isn't smoking some strong stuff from Colorado (even the "cultural fit" minded like me) would suggest them at all because they are off-the-charts horrible (not just mediocre) at basketball (bottom 10%). Wichita State, on the other hand, has great on-the-court marks (top 10%), but there's zero cultural fit there (bottom 10%).
Butler isn't top 10% in terms of cultural fit - they're maybe more like top 25% as a non-Catholic private school. However, they are elite (maybe top 1%, much less 10%) in terms of what they have achieved on the court both recently and in terms of long-term tradition. So, Butler not being a completely cultural fit was outweighed by the facts that they (1) aren't waaaaay out of the cultural fit range and (2) have achieved extraordinary on-the-court success.
My issue with VCU isn't that they don't have a great record - I absolutely believe that they do. However, I don't think that they have such an extraordinary record that this would outweigh the cultural fit issue. They might be in the top 10% in the on-the-court metric (better than Wichita State but under Butler), yet in the bottom 25% in terms of cultural fit (once again, better than Wichita State as a result of geography but substantially lower than Butler).
To me, VCU is borderline compared to SLU and Dayton, and when you're talking about borderline, I weigh the attributes that will never change (type of institution, TV market, location) more heavily than the attributes that can easily change year-to-year (on-the-court performance). Some people may disagree with that weighting, which is fine for me. However, what I don't quite understand is the argument that VCU isn't a borderline case and instead should be a slam dunk case. If the C7 wouldn't have ever even mentioned VCU's name 5 years ago as a candidate if they had split off then, that shows me that VCU won't have any bearing on whether the C7 will be looked at as a power league 5 years from now. I still can't believe that I'm arguing this to St. John's and Georgetown fans, of all people. Have more confidence in your position in the college sports world, guys. It waaaaay stronger than what you're giving your own schools credit for. (You're basically the bizarro versions of New Big East fans, where people from Memphis and Houston are so blinded in homerism that they have convinced themselves that they're attractive to the ACC.) Fox isn't providing a spec offer of $500 million over 12 years based upon VCU or even Butler - they're basing it on you (SJU, Georgetown, etc.).
I don't know if what about to say will make sense to anyone, but I'll try and explain it in terms of an elementary differential equation.
Essentially, you are looking at this like a linear function. X team has Y characteristics that give an output of Z value to the league, where the Z values are easy to determine and based solely on the characteristics of the team. That makes it easy to say that a team like Dayton will have a higher average value than VCU because they will bring a cultural fit (raising their minimum in this case).
However, this is not the way this conference will work. Instead, the starting point becomes important because the conference's performance will also be based on the rate of change at certain points.
Basically, that means that your equation isn't static. You cannot simply look at the inputs, but also at your starting point. In this case, let's say our league gets some sort of positive feedback affect if its starting value (an output technically) is above a certain limit, and gets a negative feedback below somewhere below that limit.
Since this is an equation with respect to time, the point is that you are ignoring the value of a strong start and assuming that you can calculate the output from the sum of the league's members at some point in a fairly distance future. But in this type of equation, starting strong changes the value of each team.
For a graphical idea of what I am trying to say, see this graph:
Basically, starting strong would mean starting above 0 in that graph and would push us towards a higher value. Starting below 0 pushes us downwards; the route we follow depends on where you start.
What I am trying to say is that it may be true that Dayton or SLU might bring a higher average value to the league than VCU, but we need to elevate whether the short-term benefits of adding a VCU could create a long-term benefit unconnected to VCU's further success.
Short-term success is very pertinent in my mind to the future of the league, and it isn't as simply as just looking at the team's and trying to determine their average value. In this case, the positive push would for a good media perception (ease of getting ranked or getting bids), plus the creation of an environment that aids recruiting and draws coaches.