Name recognition likely puts Memphis well ahead of Utah State, based on the raw RPI style data.

(01-16-2013 02:18 PM)Mimi Wrote:  Name recognition likely puts Memphis well ahead of Utah State, based on the raw RPI style data.

Quit getting all worked up.

Just enjoy Rice. It is tonight in case you forgot.

#saloogisnicker

(01-16-2013 02:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-16-2013 01:56 PM)3601 Wrote:  In 2011 Utah State was 29-3 with a final RPI of 18 and got a 12 seed.

They were 0-2 against top 25 teams
2-0 against 51-100

They had one "bad" loss.

Their projected seed was a 7.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/s...Utah-State

Ouch.

The fact they only had 2 wins likely led to the 12 seed, although the "bad" loss might have dropped them a line.

That resume kinda show what Memphis could be facing. A couple "good" losses (BYU and Georgetown) wins against St. Mary's and LBSU (neither at-large selections) underscores the idea of "who can you beat?"

Worst case scenario for Memphis is that USM is the only team in the RPI top 100 at the end of the year. Heck even if UTEP is there, that is only three games vs. RPI top 100.

Xavier, Harvard, Oral Roberts and Northern Iowa are the only other teams that are probably going to crack the top 100. All of those teams have to avoid upsets to remain below 100.

This dude has the following RPI predictions:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/p...dstandings

Memphis 32
Southern Miss 33
UTEP 55
Xavier 121
Louisville 4
VCU 25
Minn 3
Harvard 56
N Iowa 115
ORU 76
Tenn 143

I opened this thread fully expecting to see an oldmangrizz response. Page 3 and nothing yet! He's slipping

(01-16-2013 02:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-16-2013 01:56 PM)3601 Wrote:  In 2011 Utah State was 29-3 with a final RPI of 18 and got a 12 seed.

They were 0-2 against top 25 teams
2-0 against 51-100

They had one "bad" loss.

Their projected seed was a 7.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/s...Utah-State

Ouch.

The fact they only had 2 wins likely led to the 12 seed, although the "bad" loss might have dropped them a line.

That resume kinda show what Memphis could be facing. A couple "good" losses (BYU and Georgetown) wins against St. Mary's and LBSU (neither at-large selections) underscores the idea of "who can you beat?"

Worst case scenario for Memphis is that USM is the only team in the RPI top 100 at the end of the year. Heck even if UTEP is there, that is only three games vs. RPI top 100.

Xavier, Harvard, Oral Roberts and Northern Iowa are the only other teams that are probably going to crack the top 100. All of those teams have to avoid upsets to remain below 100.

you are really projecting worst case scenarios repeatedly and this is not statistically likely to play out.

You have to somewhat ignore the "projections" because unlike kenpom i think they are largely based on the better rpi team winning.. You should also look at which teams might bump up if they do well in conference play and significantly improve their W-L percentage, which is a big part of the rpi. Using that, here are possible top 100 rpi teams from memphis schedule

Louisville 6
Minnesota 4
VCU 31
UNI 95
Ohio 133
ORU 87
Loyola (MD) 103
UT 101
Harvard (85)
tulsa (134)
UCF (127) x2
ECU(122)
Xavier (96)
UTEP 72
Southern Miss (52) x2

we play 17 games against teams that could end up in the top 100 of the rpi. It will probably shake out as 8 or 9 and not the max of 7 you so glumly project. Teams move up and down.

Oh btw, conference USA tourney, assuming no 1st round upset will bring 2-3 more top 100 rpi games.

I think you would be safe betting we will have 10 top 100 rpi games

I want USM to win every game except against us. That gives us the best chance at something coming close to a "quality win." Same for Xavier.

Hell, if it's for seeding I might tacitly allow that it wouldn't be so bad if the shower-mold orange school to the east got hot to end the season, but I won't go so far as to "root for them." I'll just tacitly think it's not the worst thing in the world.

I watched Indiana last night and would love a shot at them. This is one year where the parity is such that we can move on with a crap seed.

(01-16-2013 04:00 PM)jgardne Wrote:  you are really projecting worst case scenarios repeatedly and this is not statistically likely to play out.

You have to somewhat ignore the "projections" because unlike kenpom i think they are largely based on the better rpi team winning.. You should also look at which teams might bump up if they do well in conference play and significantly improve their W-L percentage, which is a big part of the rpi. Using that, here are possible top 100 rpi teams from memphis schedule

Louisville 6
Minnesota 4
VCU 31
UNI 95
Ohio 133
ORU 87
Loyola (MD) 103
UT 101
Harvard (85)
tulsa (134)
UCF (127) x2
ECU(122)
Xavier (96)
UTEP 72
Southern Miss (52) x2

we play 17 games against teams that could end up in the top 100 of the rpi. It will probably shake out as 8 or 9 and not the max of 7 you so glumly project. Teams move up and down.

Oh btw, conference USA tourney, assuming no 1st round upset will bring 2-3 more top 100 rpi games.

I think you would be safe betting we will have 10 top 100 rpi games

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Memphis.html

Opinions vary (this site uses decimals, so I rounded up/down)
Predicted final RPI:

Louisville 3
Minnesota 6
VCU 18
UNI 107
Ohio 91
ORU 122
Loyola (MD) 128
UT 111
Harvard (104)
tulsa (136)
UCF (103) x2
ECU(136)
Xavier (95)
UTEP 77
Southern Miss (39) x2

So this site says USM, UTEP, Xaxier and Ohio will be the only schools Memphis would have Top 100 wins.

And again, as I caution, this is on the ASSUMPTION that Memphs beats all of their remaining opponents, which would include road wins at USM, UTEP and XAVIER.

The forecast likely "predicts" Memphis to lose those games, so if you instead switch those outcomes (a Xavier win now becomes a home loss) Xavier's RPI will fall below 100.

I'm not sure how much of a drop UTEP would have with a home loss to Memphis instead of a win, but at that point you are down to only Ohio, USM and UTEP being "predicted" (today mind you) to have RPI's better than 100.

Save your tongue lashing and just note that there is no agenda just looking at one site vs. another.