(01-03-2013 11:35 AM)wylioats Wrote:  WOW!!!! 4 pages of answering the bait thrown out by our attention seeking fisherman. As in most cases, too small to keep and needs to be thrown back (b's threads). SMDH.

Oh, and b, don't tell me to put you on ignore. I don't put anyone on ignore, even you......Happy new year.

as usual you add nothing to the conversation. you come on and pizz and moan but never have anything substantive to offer. go crawl back under your rock and leave the conversation to folks that actually have insight and opinions

(01-03-2013 11:34 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:24 AM)Brother Bluto Wrote:  We a saw how much rpi mattered with seeding the last two years.

This is not about seeding as far as what I'm talking about. This is about getting in, and if you are top 30 in the RPI you are a LOCK to get in.

Might want to send those schools an email and let them know about the error:

Highest RPI Last 15 Years
Missed NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

(01-03-2013 11:34 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:24 AM)Brother Bluto Wrote:  We a saw how much rpi mattered with seeding the last two years.

This is not about seeding as far as what I'm talking about. This is about getting in, and if you are top 30 in the RPI you are a LOCK to get in.

In 2011 we were a 30 rpi WON the CUSA tourney and got a 12 seed. If we hadn't beat UTEP we woulda been out. Same scenario this season unless we go like 14-2 in conference.

(01-03-2013 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:34 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:24 AM)Brother Bluto Wrote:  We a saw how much rpi mattered with seeding the last two years.

This is not about seeding as far as what I'm talking about. This is about getting in, and if you are top 30 in the RPI you are a LOCK to get in.

Might want to send those schools an email and let them know about the error:

Highest RPI Last 15 Years
Missed NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

so i guess mania is wrong?

(01-03-2013 11:40 AM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:34 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:24 AM)Brother Bluto Wrote:  We a saw how much rpi mattered with seeding the last two years.

This is not about seeding as far as what I'm talking about. This is about getting in, and if you are top 30 in the RPI you are a LOCK to get in.

Might want to send those schools an email and let them know about the error:

Highest RPI Last 15 Years
Missed NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

so i guess mania is wrong?

Hey, I just report the facts.

(01-03-2013 11:00 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 10:57 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 10:23 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  WOW, and I mean wow you guys are overly dramatic. Losing away to the current ranked 52 RPI team will not be the beginning of the end for Pastner LOL. Losing away to the current ranked 52 RPI team does not mean we would have to win the conference tournament to get in the Big Dance LOL.

What banner is hanging on the rafters at the end of the year determines Pastner's job looking ahead. Also, according to current RPI projections, we could lose 4 more games and still have an RPI in the top 30, and that is a lock to get in.

Please get over yourselves with your dramatic statements. Don't get me wrong, this is a big game, but not as big as some of you are portraying it to be.

Conference USA is SOOOOO bad this year, there is little chance the conference will get two NCAA bids.

Memphis' wins so far and approx RPI of the teams they have beaten:

Samford (327)
Austin Peay (324)
UT Martin (323)
Lipscomb (222)
North Florida (198)
Ohio (173)
Loyola Md. (138)
Oral Roberts (125)
Northern Iowa (121)

upcoming:
Tennessee (52)
Harvard (76)
Xavier (103)

The only two CUSA schools in the top 100 are:
Southern Miss (58)
UTEP (98)

Chances are Harvard will fall below 100 and Utep is on the brink.

Assuming Memphis loses to UT and then wins out until the conference tourney final, the Tigers would likely amass TWO wins vs. the RPI top 100 (both vs. USM).

Harvard will likely fall below that threshold Utep is iff, as for Xavier.

Obviously, if Memphis runs the table, that means home losses for UTEP and Xavier, which are rpi killers.

Having those sorts of non-conference wins and only two RPI top 100 wins (not even Top-50) and playing in the 11/12th best conference isn't a recipe for an at-large.

Again, the projections show that if we lose 4 more games we will have an RPI in the top 30. That is a lock no matter how you want to slice it. Yes, RPI does not matter as much as it used to, but once you get into the top 30 they are not leaving you out. That's just the way it is.

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD
Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record/Expected RPI/Probability
28-3 12.7 0.03%
27-4 14.6 0.37%
26-5 18.5 1.88%
25-6 23.2 6.08%
24-7 29.3 11.68%
23-8 36.7 18.96%
22-9 45.0 21.17%
21-10 54.5 17.77%
20-11 65.5 11.71%
19-12 78.0 6.61%
18-13 91.8 2.69%
17-14 108.1 0.75%
16-15 123.0 0.21%
15-16 138.4 0.05%
14-17 167.0 0.03%

I have no idea how these percentages were derived, nor any foreboding they may hold, but based on them, we would have an 80% chance of not having an RPI under 30.

Not overly comforting.

(01-03-2013 11:46 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:40 AM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:34 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:24 AM)Brother Bluto Wrote:  We a saw how much rpi mattered with seeding the last two years.

This is not about seeding as far as what I'm talking about. This is about getting in, and if you are top 30 in the RPI you are a LOCK to get in.

Might want to send those schools an email and let them know about the error:

Highest RPI Last 15 Years
Missed NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

so i guess mania is wrong?

Hey, I just report the facts.

I was going to say there has been 2 or 3 left out inside the top 30 of the last decade. That strengthens my point if anything. Yeah, technically "lock" was not the right word, but you get the point. The odds of being left out in the top 30 are extremely low, especially with the pedigree of a school like Memphis.

Probable am. I just assumed the column that said probability was the probability of Memphis achieving that record.

I got a feeling the committee doesn't think much about our pedigree at this point.

(01-03-2013 11:35 AM)wylioats Wrote:  I don't put anyone on ignore, even you......Happy new year.

I put my wife on ignore at home, but I have a sneaky feeling she's visiting this board incognito just to try and get me to pay attention to her. However, I won't fall for it. After 37 years, I know all her tricks.

(01-03-2013 12:07 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:46 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:40 AM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:34 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  This is not about seeding as far as what I'm talking about. This is about getting in, and if you are top 30 in the RPI you are a LOCK to get in.

Might want to send those schools an email and let them know about the error:

Highest RPI Last 15 Years
Missed NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

so i guess mania is wrong?

Hey, I just report the facts.

I was going to say there has been 2 or 3 left out inside the top 30 of the last decade. That strengthens my point if anything. Yeah, technically "lock" was not the right word, but you get the point. The odds of being left out in the top 30 are extremely low, especially with the pedigree of a school like Memphis.

Hmmmm.

That all-caps LOCK seemed pretty forceful.

Bottom line is it doesn't happen often, but with the situation that would play out (only two RPI 50-100 wins and zero "eye test" wins while playing in a horrible CUSA) would REALLY put the NCAA Selection Cmte in a bind.

As for pedigree, where did a 16 RPI and 20 SOS get Memphis last year? in the 8/9 game.

(01-03-2013 12:07 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:46 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:40 AM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:34 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  This is not about seeding as far as what I'm talking about. This is about getting in, and if you are top 30 in the RPI you are a LOCK to get in.

Might want to send those schools an email and let them know about the error:

Highest RPI Last 15 Years
Missed NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

so i guess mania is wrong?

Hey, I just report the facts.

I was going to say there has been 2 or 3 left out inside the top 30 of the last decade. That strengthens my point if anything. Yeah, technically "lock" was not the right word, but you get the point. The odds of being left out in the top 30 are extremely low, especially with the pedigree of a school like Memphis.

"pedigree"???

are you kidding me? we are known everywhere except on this board as an outlaw, cheating program. the ncaa would be happy if we were swallowed by a huge sink hole.

(01-03-2013 10:22 AM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 10:02 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  He feels the stress.

Lose this game and Memphis almost surely HAS to win the CUSA tourney to get an NCAA bid.

I think winning the conference in dominating fashion (14-2 or so) will be enough to get an at-large even if we drop a game in the tourney.

However, the goal this year is to get a win in the NCAA tourney and hopefully get to the second weekend. Hard to do that if we get a 11 or 12 seed.

CUSA is a one bid conference. Doesn't matter what our record is at ths point...the CUSA tourney champ is the only one going to big dance.

(01-03-2013 10:08 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 10:04 AM)BinghamptonNed Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 10:00 AM)btiger Wrote:  with all of the unrest surounding the program if he loses this one it could well be the beginning of the end

win this one and everyone will chill until march when he will get another chance to win an ncaa game

this one game will set the tone for his future

of course you are right, he miserables will stfu after we win Friday..

"Miserables?" You are telling me it is all rainbows and unicorns 1/3 of the way through the season knowing you almost have to avoid a loss in order to still have a shot as an at-large bid--from a team that was ranked #15 or so to start the year?

Do you expect anything less from one of the co-authors of Rainbow Land???

[video=youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM9uFaGGVwk[/youtube]

(01-03-2013 12:15 PM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 12:07 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:46 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:40 AM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Might want to send those schools an email and let them know about the error:

Highest RPI Last 15 Years
Missed NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

so i guess mania is wrong?

Hey, I just report the facts.

I was going to say there has been 2 or 3 left out inside the top 30 of the last decade. That strengthens my point if anything. Yeah, technically "lock" was not the right word, but you get the point. The odds of being left out in the top 30 are extremely low, especially with the pedigree of a school like Memphis.

"pedigree"???

are you kidding me? we are known everywhere except on this board as an outlaw, cheating program. the ncaa would be happy if we were swallowed by a huge sink hole.

Alabama bought players from Memphis yet they are being heaped praise upon. Screw the NCAA. Just win.

(01-03-2013 12:28 PM)Tiger46 Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 12:15 PM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 12:07 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:46 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:40 AM)btiger Wrote:  so i guess mania is wrong?

Hey, I just report the facts.

I was going to say there has been 2 or 3 left out inside the top 30 of the last decade. That strengthens my point if anything. Yeah, technically "lock" was not the right word, but you get the point. The odds of being left out in the top 30 are extremely low, especially with the pedigree of a school like Memphis.

"pedigree"???

are you kidding me? we are known everywhere except on this board as an outlaw, cheating program. the ncaa would be happy if we were swallowed by a huge sink hole.

Alabama bought players from Memphis yet they are being heaped praise upon. Screw the NCAA. Just win.

theyre alabama....we're not

(01-03-2013 12:15 PM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 12:07 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:46 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:40 AM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:38 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Might want to send those schools an email and let them know about the error:

Highest RPI Last 15 Years
Missed NCAA Tournament
’05-06 Missouri State 21
’96-97 Texas Tech 29
’05-06 Hofstra 30
’06-07 Air Force 30
’07-08 Dayton 32

so i guess mania is wrong?

Hey, I just report the facts.

I was going to say there has been 2 or 3 left out inside the top 30 of the last decade. That strengthens my point if anything. Yeah, technically "lock" was not the right word, but you get the point. The odds of being left out in the top 30 are extremely low, especially with the pedigree of a school like Memphis.

"pedigree"???

are you kidding me? we are known everywhere except on this board as an outlaw, cheating program. the ncaa would be happy if we were swallowed by a huge sink hole.

Compare our pedigree to those teams listed that did not make it in that had top 30 rpi's.

(01-03-2013 12:31 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 12:15 PM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 12:07 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:46 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:40 AM)btiger Wrote:  so i guess mania is wrong?

Hey, I just report the facts.

I was going to say there has been 2 or 3 left out inside the top 30 of the last decade. That strengthens my point if anything. Yeah, technically "lock" was not the right word, but you get the point. The odds of being left out in the top 30 are extremely low, especially with the pedigree of a school like Memphis.

"pedigree"???

are you kidding me? we are known everywhere except on this board as an outlaw, cheating program. the ncaa would be happy if we were swallowed by a huge sink hole.

Compare our pedigree to those teams listed that did not make it in that had top 30 rpi's.

Fame is fleeting my friend.

What have you done for me lately?

Welcome to Rainbow Land were we feast on cream puffs and avoid all things tough.

(01-03-2013 12:33 PM)dan o Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 12:31 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 12:15 PM)btiger Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 12:07 PM)memphis mania Wrote:  

(01-03-2013 11:46 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Hey, I just report the facts.

I was going to say there has been 2 or 3 left out inside the top 30 of the last decade. That strengthens my point if anything. Yeah, technically "lock" was not the right word, but you get the point. The odds of being left out in the top 30 are extremely low, especially with the pedigree of a school like Memphis.

"pedigree"???

are you kidding me? we are known everywhere except on this board as an outlaw, cheating program. the ncaa would be happy if we were swallowed by a huge sink hole.

Compare our pedigree to those teams listed that did not make it in that had top 30 rpi's.

Fame is fleeting my friend.

What have you done for me lately?

I do understand your point, but I will make a bet with anyone that wants to that we will get in if we have an RPI of 30 or better not matter if we win or lose to ut or Xavier. I will give you odds too. If I win I get a dollar, if you win you get 100 dollars.