This article from Brian Ewart of vuhoops.com speculates about the likelihood that the Super conferences bolting the NCAA and what effect it could have on the C7+. He makes the argument that the decision to bolt would be driven by basketball and not football.

Quotes:

"It isn't clear that the superconference split is inevitable, but it looks more and more likely as the rapid-pace of conference realignment has exposed the business motives of these leagues."

"The NCAA's operation is funded largely by the revenue from the $10.8 billion, 14-year agreement, selling the television rights for the blockbuster Division I Men's Basketball Tournament to a combination of CBS Sports and Turner Broadcasting. About 90% of the NCAA's annual revenue is projected to come from media rights payments from the basketball tournament..."

"Division II and Division III sports generate very little revenue for the NCAA, but receive subsidies from the association...By breaking away from the NCAA, these power conferences could pocket the money previously spent by the governing body on those lower divisions."

"The Catholic 7 could become the strongest of the non-football conferences and might be stronger in basketball than any of the football conferences outside of the power leagues. With the superconferences looking to generate revenue from their men's basketball tournament, the more strong programs that can be added to the breakaway association, the better."

"They would need to argue that the benefit they add to the superconference association's basketball revenue is greater than the additional difficulties of dealing with a non-football conference in the mix. Those benefits may include greater shared tournament revenue, better regular-season scheduling opportunities, and a more "inclusive" outward appearance."

http://www.vuhoops.com/2012/12/24/380101...-villanova

I don't see CBS and Turner reworking the contract so soon-probably nothing happens until the current contract expires. Why would CBS/Turner pay more for (at least in a quantitative sense) less?

The big time football schools leaving the NCAA, forming their own governing body and ditching all the little small schools has always been one of those things expected in the future -- like the Big East splitting along football lines.

One thing has never made sense to me about that theory, though: They need someone to beat.

45 of 60 teams in the ACC, B12, B10, P12, SEC had a bowl eligible records this past season.

Take away their OOC games against the little guys, and only 33 of 60 teams are .500 or better; Six teams go from over .500 to .500 (Mississippi State goes from 8-4 to 4-4).

Also, virtually all of those games against the little guys are home games. Gonna be hard for everyone to play 7-8 home games in a 12-game schedule.

I always hear people complain about the NCAA after sanctions are handed down and fans rail on how the big teams are going to get sick of these rules and split! They fail to recognize that those big schools are the ones who write those rules. The school presidents would never vote to leave the NCAA. If they didn't like the rules they can always change them. The most likely thing that would happen is changing the division requirements. The power five conferences plus maybe the next two would be FPS (Football Playoff Subdivision) then the MAC, SBC and CUSA along with the top 1AA conferences would be FBS and then the rest of the current FCS along with the best of the D2 conferences would be FCS.

I don't think too much would change in BBall. Most of the changes would only really effect FB.

just gotta luv it - speculation, that is.

Let them go. the Big 6. Should they decide to bolt from the NCAA.
They have to form a new confederation...a new NAIA-2 or FBSA or other rulemaking org. Of course they'd probably "borrow" heavily from the NCAA's book.

The Bowl organizations would love it. Prolongs the lack of a championship playoff for Div 1. But that is football - who cares!

The FBSers and their FBSA would have to form a new basketball and baseball playoff system, as the NCAA own the current systems and would keep the current systems. Can you imagine a basketball tourney with All of the big six teams playing in it... what a joke. At best they would have to pare down any new FBS Basketball tourney to 24-32 teams.

The NCAA products and their TV contracts would continue to roll along, and would become a lot more competitive in the process without the heavy "seeding" for the UKs, KUs, and UNCs of the nation. The NCAA Tourney would become much more entertaining, competitive, and exciting without the current bias for the FBS schoolss.

Let them go, if they like. collegiate sports will be better off without the money mongering FBSers.