Word is that Boise is having meeting with the MWC about staying in the conference.

This could spell an end to someone. Either the BE, C-USA or SBC will be gone within 2 years.

Of the 3, only the Belt realizes its a Mid-Major.
C-USA will remain a revolving door. Big East likely to implode.

(12-21-2012 10:52 PM)jpm3985 Wrote:  Of the 3, only the Belt realizes its a Mid-Major.
C-USA will remain a revolving door. Big East likely to implode.

Business as usual then.

The MWC just reworked its television deal and received the right to sell some games to other networks. This will equate to more money ONCE the MWC can get BSU and SDSU to stay. At that point, I expect the MWC to add Tulsa, Houston, UTEP and SMU. If that happens, the best option for CUSA and the remaining BE would be to merge. A merger would be great for them. That would leave us with 10 conferences and a greater share of the playoff money for each of the Group of 5(4) leagues to split.

Less conferences, still the same number of schools. Which means in the end we will all still get the same amount from the BCS money. Wonder if that were to happen if C-USA will retract any invites.

My money is still on the "bigger" conferences eating the "smaller" ones (even though we're all pretty much even now anyway) in the conference food chain.

Just swap the aggressor from the nBE to the MWC.

MWC plucks teams from nBE, nBE calls up more CUSA, CUSA brings whomever they want from SBC, SBC calls up FCS schools.

If Southern Miss were to move to BE, I could see South getting the call from C-USA. We have turned them down in the past, doubt we would again. I don't like the idea, but that is the way it would be.

Do any fans really like the moves their teams are doing anymore???

(12-21-2012 11:18 PM)RaiderDoug Wrote:  nBE calls up more CUSA

What does the East of CUSA or the fringe West CUSA gain by leaving CUSA now. Those schools will never garner big money from anyone. Why would anyone pay exit fees and enternce fees to a group of schools that do not have a formal conference, no bowl ties, no auto bid, no tv, no tv revenue.

Whats left of the "Blown Up Big East" will be:

ECU
UCF
USF
Tulane
Memphis
Cincy
UConn

And Cincy and UConn will only be temp members. First invite to anywhere they will take it. Also not many of the schools just have 10-12 million dollars to start a new conference.

If the MWC keeps Boise and SDSU then I look for SMU, Houston go to the MWC along with probably UTEP and Tulsa.

Those who left CUSA first went from looking like the Jefferson's to the Evans' in Good Times. All ghetto...

The nBE will be the old C-USA+UConn. The nC-USA will be the old SBC with UAb, which used to be in the SBC anyway....

Silly to think about, but I think right now it is better to have not moved yet, than it is to have moved.

(12-21-2012 10:50 PM)Usajags Wrote:  Word is that Boise is having meeting with the MWC about staying in the conference.

This could spell an end to someone. Either the BE, C-USA or SBC will be gone within 2 years.

I don't think anyone goes out of business.

Big East even without SDSU and Boise has 11 schools, 10 that are all sports, they will have the AQ for 2013 and will be a Central and Eastern time zone league. They'll take probably one CUSA or MAC (maybe a Buffalo or UMass).

MWC has reached out to at least one other Big East. There are four front-range schools (AFA, CSU, Wyo, NM). If Boise and SDSU were to return you can go to 14 quite neatly by throwing them in a division with Hawaii, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV, and SJSU. Add USU to the front rage schools and two Central time zone teams and you've preserved the key rivalries.

If they don't get Houston/SMU MWC is still at 12 and just fine. If they do get them, Big East is at 9 with 8 full and fills in with CUSA or MAC.

If CUSA loses two they are still at 12.

It'll be interesting to see which of the schools get back in to CUSA, considering they'll all probably be begging for an invite either there, the MAC, or the SBC.

I predict zero return to CUSA.

Problem one is CUSA is too large.

Even if CUSA is left with just UConn, Cincy, Temple, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, SMU they will pick from CUSA not the other way around.

Don't believe me? Ask Commissioner Benson about his plan to get MWC schools back in the WAC.

The MWC may dig Boise out of the Big East but the Big East TV deal is looking to be worth no more than $2 million more than the MWC deal and maybe only $1 millon more per team with high travel costs and the marketing disadvantage of the school's teams being split between two leagues.

The CUSA TV deal is $14 million gross so worst case for BE is $1 million more than CUSA but with near identical geography and no two conference solution hassle.

If this goes down...then

MWC adds BSU, SDSU
BE adds Tulsa, NIU, UMass(fb only)
CUSA adds Arkansas St., WKU
MAC adds JMU
SBC adds App St., Georgia So., SHSU, NMSU

If you don't want to go west for NMSU, you still have Lamar, Jacksonville St., Liberty. Unlike the west you have lots of schools that want to move up to be w/ you.

(12-21-2012 10:50 PM)Usajags Wrote:  Word is that Boise is having meeting with the MWC about staying in the conference.

This could spell an end to someone. Either the BE, C-USA or SBC will be gone within 2 years.

I don't think any of the BE, SBC, or CUSA will be gone, but all three will be weaker conferences when this ends. The MWC will be the best non-Big Five conference in the land by far.

1. I don't think any leagues go under, simply because there are enough FCS move-up candidates.

2. The nBE's western play will be DOA, which won't be too terrible for them long-term. They'll have the best of the rest in the east, the MWC will have the best of the rest out west.

3. C-USA's remaining members from 2012 -- all or most (Marshall, UAB may be stuck, but who knows?) -- will go to either the nBE or MWC. I can see UTEP, Rice and Tulsa all moving to the MWC.

4. Either the SBC or C-USA will be at bottom of the conference rankings, as their recent moves have cemented their position at the low end with the MAC and SBC.

Just curious (since I really don't know), if the MWC can see themselves being poached by the nBE and become proactive in convincing those members to stay, why can't the Belt do that with CUSA?

When is our deal with ESPN done?

The Belt isn't taking anyone from CUSA. The worst case scenario for the teams that left the Sun Belt (FIU/North Texas and soon MTSU/FAU) would be a beefed up Sun Belt under the CUSA name. Still better off than the old Sun Belt.

This would happen if the MWC/Big East take 5 or 6 teams from CUSA (Marshall, Southern Miss, Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, etc). If CUSA got down to 8 from 14, they could just take the remaining Sun Belt schools and the conferences would be merged. Still have a better commish, better name brand, conference championship game, and a few different teams. Stuff the Sun Belt could have done before would happen now under the CUSA name.

But we are a long way from that so we will see what happens.

(12-22-2012 10:54 AM)YouCanUseaMint Wrote:  Just curious (since I really don't know), if the MWC can see themselves being poached by the nBE and become proactive in convincing those members to stay, why can't the Belt do that with CUSA?

When is our deal with ESPN done?

Boise State prior to going to nBE supposedly was telling people the nBE had to produce $4 million a year more than MWC to be worthwhile. When the revenue was $1.2 million MWC and $6.3 million for nBE the deal was fairly easy to do.

Now the optimistic number for nBE is $4 million, generally thought to be $3 million, with some low end estimates of $2 million. For that small difference Boise has to market football and basketball with completely different schedules (except for SDSU). They have to send the president, AD, women's senior, faculty athletic rep, and compliance officers to two sets of conference meetings doubling the amount of out-of-office travel time.

Football has to travel the country and all other sports play all league road contests exclusively in California with nothing in their region.

It works for MWC and Boise.

It doesn't work for us for the same reason it won't work for CUSA, there is a little bit more money in the other league but the geographic footprints look very similar and there isn't the administrative hassles to fight through.

(12-22-2012 05:01 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  BE adds Tulsa, NIU, UMass(fb only)

No one and I mean no one will ever leave the MAC unless they ever find a golden ticket. And the only golden ticket for 11 MAC schools is the B10, and thats not happening. If you would go away for 50 years you would see the MAC would basically be the same schools when you got back.