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The Bigger is better Alliance theory
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arkstfan Away
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The Bigger is better Alliance theory
The core thought has been get large enough and TV will rain money upon you. Get the biggest markets and by osmosis, TV will rain even more money on you.

Here is the reality.

CUSA with a number of major markets and some decent brand names went on the open market and garnered $14 gross (rights fees plus productions costs). If they remain at 14 the net TV value per school will be around $800,000 to $900,000.

If CUSA went to 20 the gross per school would at best remain constant, unless they were to add a school with a proven value in excess of that amount. For example we know BYU has an established value of around $4 million for their home games so you take those home games plus four conference road games and it can lift the value of a league TV deal.

If acting jointly were capable of producing the numbers some have claimed, then the commissioners of the MAC, Sun Belt, CUSA and MWC would throw their TV rights into one pool and use the market value of their combined package to get a big TV deal and then distribute the money based on a formula that pays based on the number of appearances and type of appearance. TV's selection of games of would determine who gets how much of the kitty.

That isn't happening and by all accounts no one thinks it would produce a windfall.

If having 55 schools under one TV deal with payments on an eat what you kill basis isn't going to produce fat money then you can figure a 20 or 22 or 24 team deal where the money is shared equally won't either.
12-20-2012 11:58 AM
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panama Offline
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
Well said. Eventually this will break down into regional conferences, mostly of 10 to 12 schools
12-20-2012 12:09 PM
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FIUFan Offline
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
(12-20-2012 12:09 PM)panama Wrote:  Well said. Eventually this will break down into regional conferences, mostly of 10 to 12 schools

We'll see where we are in 10 years. Some schools will outperform and others won't. You know that the schools who do well will have a Big5 at their door sooner or later; just like Coca-Cola, they don't invent, they just buy up the competition.
12-20-2012 12:20 PM
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arkstfan Away
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
(12-20-2012 12:20 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(12-20-2012 12:09 PM)panama Wrote:  Well said. Eventually this will break down into regional conferences, mostly of 10 to 12 schools

We'll see where we are in 10 years. Some schools will outperform and others won't. You know that the schools who do well will have a Big5 at their door sooner or later; just like Coca-Cola, they don't invent, they just buy up the competition.

If the economic model changes, we are all shooting in the dark.

If the model remains fairly constant, then more likely the Big 5 becomes the Big 4 or Big 3.
12-20-2012 12:27 PM
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freshtop Offline
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
I think it will be a while before you see that breakdown, because every school in the country is looking to do what they can to advance. Every Sun Belt team would leave for C-USA right now, every C-USA would leave for nBE or MWC, etc. Until all the chips hit the ground and the dust settles, then you might see some regional conferences form out of what's left of the MWC, Sun Belt, and C-USA.

I think you will see a conference west of the Mississippi plus USM, and another with the East teams from the Ohio river down (with a small chance of WKU and maybe Marshall being absorbed by the MAC).

You would be looking at:
WEST:
UTEP, UNT, Texas ST, UTSA, Rice, Tulsa, stAte, ULL, ULM, LaTech, USM
EAST:
UNC-C, UAB, Marshall, MTSU, WKU, FIU, FAU, ODU, Troy, USA, GaSt.

I don't know that I like it, but I certainly don't hate it. It probably won't happen anyway because some of those schools are hell bent on keeping each other down, and travel would be too easy.

EDIT: Added a pic for dramatic effect:

.png  sbsusasplit.png (Size: 195.44 KB / Downloads: 18)

Double edit: I just realized how football centric the west would be and bball centric the east would be. It is funny how geography impacts sports emphasis.
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2012 12:43 PM by freshtop.)
12-20-2012 12:30 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
I don't particularly care about the TV money as much as I care about ECU being associated with the best group of schools from an attendance, financial, and commitment level standpoint. It disgusts me to know how much it matters and how hard ECU works to see us playing games against teams who are doing the bare minimum and no one cares about.
12-20-2012 12:45 PM
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Usajags Offline
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
And the BE picked Tulane because????
12-20-2012 01:07 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
(12-20-2012 01:07 PM)Usajags Wrote:  And the BE picked Tulane because????

Wish I had a good answer for that. I don't run that league, and if I did they would have never gotten considered. Only defense I have of them is during the periods of history where they actually try to be good at athletics they usually do well, but the problem is they go through long periods where their administration de-emphasizes sports. I think they may be making a renewed commitment, but then again they'll do that for a few years and then go hardline the other way. Rice and Tulane frustrate me more than any 2 schools in C-USA. They have no excuses why they suck. UAB can at least say that the BOT is keeping them from doing anything, but those 2 have the money, history, and tradition to win and pretty much have chosen not to. SMU went from worst program in the country to pretty good almost immediately the second they decided to care again. Rice and Tulane can do the same, and yet for years just haven't wanted to.
12-20-2012 01:23 PM
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ark30inf Offline
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Post: #9
RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
(12-20-2012 12:20 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(12-20-2012 12:09 PM)panama Wrote:  Well said. Eventually this will break down into regional conferences, mostly of 10 to 12 schools

We'll see where we are in 10 years. Some schools will outperform and others won't. You know that the schools who do well will have a Big5 at their door sooner or later; just like Coca-Cola, they don't invent, they just buy up the competition.

The Big 5 can't continue to expand infinitely. They will fill up the slots and once the slots are filled they are done. The SEC isn't going to expand to 14 then 16 then 20 then 24 then 30, etc., ad infinitum. Not sustainable, and not going to happen. I don't know what number they stop at, but they will stop at some point.
12-20-2012 01:23 PM
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ark30inf Offline
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
(12-20-2012 12:20 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(12-20-2012 12:09 PM)panama Wrote:  Well said. Eventually this will break down into regional conferences, mostly of 10 to 12 schools

We'll see where we are in 10 years. Some schools will outperform and others won't. You know that the schools who do well will have a Big5 at their door sooner or later; just like Coca-Cola, they don't invent, they just buy up the competition.

Also, some of these schools that have performed well previously will find themselves the victims of the Peter Principle. They may make a bit more money but find that they no longer win conference championships and are no longer really relevant.

Arkansas for instance was very relevant in the old SWC and performed very well. Since entering the SEC they are richer, but haven't won a single conference championship.

Maybe West Virginia will make a lot of money AND be a major player in the Big 12. But it is just as possible that they will have conference performances more like Kansas or Baylor. Who knows.

We have no idea who the winners and losers will be in that category and some folks will end up not liking how it turns out.
12-20-2012 01:34 PM
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
(12-20-2012 01:34 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  Also, some of these schools that have performed well previously will find themselves the victims of the Peter Principle. They may make a bit more money but find that they no longer win conference championships and are no longer really relevant.
Arkansas for instance was very relevant in the old SWC and performed very well. Since entering the SEC they are richer, but haven't won a single conference championship.
Maybe West Virginia will make a lot of money AND be a major player in the Big 12. But it is just as possible that they will have conference performances more like Kansas or Baylor. Who knows.
We have no idea who the winners and losers will be in that category and some folks will end up not liking how it turns out.

Now you're getting somewhere 04-cheers. As the Hogs continue to miss bowl games due to competition and as ASU wins conference championship and goes to bowl games, the perception of the average fan will begin to change. You're already starting to get tweets of frustration from your local rival.

What's the old saying 'absolute power corrupts absolutely'? I think the greed of the Big 5 will come back to haunt them in the end as there becomes fewer and fewer winners and more and more losers.
12-20-2012 02:47 PM
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arkstfan Away
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RE: The Bigger is better Alliance theory
(12-20-2012 02:47 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  
(12-20-2012 01:34 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  Also, some of these schools that have performed well previously will find themselves the victims of the Peter Principle. They may make a bit more money but find that they no longer win conference championships and are no longer really relevant.
Arkansas for instance was very relevant in the old SWC and performed very well. Since entering the SEC they are richer, but haven't won a single conference championship.
Maybe West Virginia will make a lot of money AND be a major player in the Big 12. But it is just as possible that they will have conference performances more like Kansas or Baylor. Who knows.
We have no idea who the winners and losers will be in that category and some folks will end up not liking how it turns out.

Now you're getting somewhere 04-cheers. As the Hogs continue to miss bowl games due to competition and as ASU wins conference championship and goes to bowl games, the perception of the average fan will begin to change. You're already starting to get tweets of frustration from your local rival.

What's the old saying 'absolute power corrupts absolutely'? I think the greed of the Big 5 will come back to haunt them in the end as there becomes fewer and fewer winners and more and more losers.

An old friend and I were talking right after the Maryland/Rutgers move.

He asked, "What will university presidents, athletic directors, and the public think about the people running college athletics today twenty years from now."

I said they will likely romanticize it like the founders of the NFL in car dealership starting the league.

He said, that may be true but this is a really dangerous time for university presidents. Putting them in control of athletics made things worse. If this doesn't work out, people might start taking a harder look at how universities are being run.
12-20-2012 04:22 PM
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