The unofficial online home for fans of the UAB Blazers. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

Blazer brethren:

We have arrived at a scary and confusing time as it pertains to the future of UAB Athletics. With Southern Miss as the only original conference mate left, our leadership must think about the best strategic direction. Obviously, we all know the factors at play against us in this regard.

With respect to our new conference affiliation as it sits today, I wanted to see what effect this would have on the crown jewel of UAB athletics: men's basketball. After all, our program was built on basketball, and not just any basketball: ELITE basketball. If we fail to maintain an elite basketball pedigree, we are nothing. As we all know, football largely drives conference affiliation, and one of the unintended consequences of the possibility of being left behind in Sun Belt 2.0 is that we lose basketball strength.

I wanted to do a little analysis to see how the newcomers fared in basketball over the past five years, compared to who we're replacing.

This is what I found:

-Overall Team Average RPI, last five seasons

Memphis 23.8
UAB 60.4
ODU 70.8
Tulsa 81.8
UTEP 88.8
USM 96.4
Marshall 100.6
UCF 129.8
UNT 141.2
MTSU 144.8
Houston 145.6
Charlotte 151.8
UTSA 193.6
ECU 197.4
La Tech 200.8
FAU 216.6
Tulane 223.8
SMU 231.2
Rice 235.8
FIU 263.4

Next, I'll show you the average conference RPI by year, based on old/new configuration:

2008:

Old: 140
New: 162

2009:

Old: 142
New: 159

2010:

Old: 147
New: 132

2011:

Old: 115
New: 138

2012:

Old: 129
New: 141

Grand Totals:

Old: 135
New: 146

So, essentially, this FN analysis shows that based on prior trends over the last five seasons, conference RPI will remain relatively unchanged. Obviously, losing Memphis is a huge blow to the league on the basketball side, but ODU is a great addition for basketball. Conversely, the F_U twins are horrendous additions.

And--in case anyone's wondering, Western Kentucky's 5-year average is 112, but they've really fallen off over the last 3 seasons.

Luckily, we've kept 5 of the top 6 programs, and have added a solid one in ODU, while playing musical chairs with the rest. So, in summation, I don't anticipate that the new league will be a complete disaster for our basketball program should we remain. In fact, it will be similar to the reality that we've lived in since the last realignment wave in 2004 took all of our strong programs.

(11-28-2012 03:09 PM)FNblazer Wrote:  Luckily, we've kept 5 of the top 6 programs, and have added a solid one in ODU, while playing musical chairs with the rest. So, in summation, I don't anticipate that the new league will be a complete disaster for our basketball program should we remain. In fact, it will be similar to the reality that we've lived in since the last realignment wave in 2004 took all of our strong programs.

I mostly agree with you, but I worry about the intangible consequences too. Replacing more recognizable brands like Houston, Memphis and Tulane with ODU, North Texas and Middle Tennessee will impact local interest and attendance at home games and the overall feel as a big-time program we had when our conference included names like Louisville, Cincy, Memphis, DePaul, Marquette, etc. While I recognize why football matters and want to see us succeed in it because it raises the profile and drives the revenue and realignment, basketball is what I personally care about. It's not an epic disaster for basketball for the reasons your research proves, but it still bums me out.

Wasn't UCF generally a Johnny-come-lately in basketball?

(11-28-2012 03:07 PM)FNblazer Wrote:  Blazer brethren:

We have arrived at a scary and confusing time as it pertains to the future of UAB Athletics. With Southern Miss as the only original conference mate left, our leadership must think about the best strategic direction. Obviously, we all know the factors at play against us in this regard.

With respect to our new conference affiliation as it sits today, I wanted to see what effect this would have on the crown jewel of UAB athletics: men's basketball. After all, our program was built on basketball, and not just any basketball: ELITE basketball. If we fail to maintain an elite basketball pedigree, we are nothing. As we all know, football largely drives conference affiliation, and one of the unintended consequences of the possibility of being left behind in Sun Belt 2.0 is that we lose basketball strength.

I wanted to do a little analysis to see how the newcomers fared in basketball over the past five years, compared to who we're replacing.

This is what I found:

-Overall Team Average RPI, last five seasons

Memphis 23.8
UAB 60.4
ODU 70.8
Tulsa 81.8
UTEP 88.8
USM 96.4
Marshall 100.6
UCF 129.8
UNT 141.2
MTSU 144.8
Houston 145.6
Charlotte 151.8
UTSA 193.6
ECU 197.4
La Tech 200.8
FAU 216.6
Tulane 223.8
SMU 231.2
Rice 235.8
FIU 263.4

Next, I'll show you the average conference RPI by year, based on old/new configuration:

2008:

Old: 140
New: 162

2009:

Old: 142
New: 159

2010:

Old: 147
New: 132

2011:

Old: 115
New: 138

2012:

Old: 129
New: 141

Grand Totals:

Old: 135
New: 146

So, essentially, this FN analysis shows that based on prior trends over the last five seasons, conference RPI will remain relatively unchanged. Obviously, losing Memphis is a huge blow to the league on the basketball side, but ODU is a great addition for basketball. Conversely, the F_U twins are horrendous additions.

And--in case anyone's wondering, Western Kentucky's 5-year average is 112, but they've really fallen off over the last 3 seasons.

Right now I'm not sure all those remaining schools will be in C-USA going forward. If UTEP and Tulsa get the opportunity to head to the MWC, they are gone yesterday. On the field football may be pretty even with the Big East and MWC but in basketball there will be a chasm.

Middle Tennessee has improved drastically in the past year. Their five year average is not going to reflect that. Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend rather than a one time spurt.

MTSU's last five seasons: 106 167 178 217 56

Essentially, this confirms what we all knew, C*USA's basketball prowess (except for Memphis) isn't taking a step down, per se, but confirms what we all knew: C*USA really died in 2004.

MTSU or Tulane? Not a hard choice there.

(11-28-2012 03:26 PM)Memphis Blazer Wrote:  Middle Tennessee has improved drastically in the past year. Their five year average is not going to reflect that. Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend rather than a one time spurt.

And we've all heard how well North Texas has recruited. Hopefully they turn into a legit program too.

And UNC-Charlotte's average is well below where I would have guessed them to be.

(11-28-2012 04:01 PM)BlazerPhil Wrote:  And UNC-Charlotte's average is well below where I would have guessed them to be.

I don't think they've done anything since they left C-USA.

Or told Lutz to leave.

(11-28-2012 04:01 PM)BlazerPhil Wrote:  And UNC-Charlotte's average is well below where I would have guessed them to be.

Two things wrecked Charlotte's success:

1. They left C-USA (they were pushed out).
2. They fired this guy:

Lutz is now at NC State doing Gottfried's on the floor coaching for him.

(11-28-2012 04:31 PM)Memphis Blazer Wrote:  Lutz is now at NC State doing Gottfried's on the floor coaching for him.

Somebody has got to do the work while the coach is out play :rolltide: ing golf.

Lutz never was the same after he shaved the porn stache.