per rotoworld

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/3...-a-starter

The Reds actually told Chapman to prepare as a starter immediately following the season.

Oh happy day!

I say keep him as a closer, nice to have Broxton back but getting to the ninth with Chapman in you could pretty much count on winning.

I like taking the chance on him. If he can't cut it, then you send him back to the bullpen, but if it works out, the rotation is unbelievable. Considering the struggles he had going multiple days, etc, it seems like his arm may be best suited for the regular work of a starting pitcher, which is how he has always been used until he got to the Reds.

(11-28-2012 01:55 PM)beck Wrote:  I say keep him as a closer, nice to have Broxton back but getting to the ninth with Chapman in you could pretty much count on winning.

I've heard this stat before and today Lance had it on his blog:

A study by Dave Smith of Retrosheet, found that over the last 70 years a team leading by one run, entering the 9th inning, wins the game 84% of the time, no matter who is pitching. Teams win 95% of games they take a lead of any margin to the 9th inning.
http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog...z2DYYRJaNX

Chapman saved 88% of his games last year. No doubt he's already one of the most dominate closers in baseball, but he's got a chance to make an even bigger impact in the rotation. They have to at least try it.

(11-28-2012 04:51 PM)Bearcat04 Wrote:  

(11-28-2012 01:55 PM)beck Wrote:  I say keep him as a closer, nice to have Broxton back but getting to the ninth with Chapman in you could pretty much count on winning.

I've heard this stat before and today Lance had it on his blog:

A study by Dave Smith of Retrosheet, found that over the last 70 years a team leading by one run, entering the 9th inning, wins the game 84% of the time, no matter who is pitching. Teams win 95% of games they take a lead of any margin to the 9th inning.
http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog...z2DYYRJaNX

Chapman saved 88% of his games last year. No doubt he's already one of the most dominate closers in baseball, but he's got a chance to make an even bigger impact in the rotation. They have to at least try it.

It's a good stat, the only caveat being if your staff is on the low end of that bell curve, it is totally demoralizing and can destroy a team. But with Broxton and an overall quality bullpen, that's unlikely to happen. And if it does, the Reds could relucatantly move him back there I suppose. So the smart move is to start Chapman and see if we can maximize our return with more quality innings of pitching from him.

(11-28-2012 06:18 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  

(11-28-2012 04:51 PM)Bearcat04 Wrote:  

(11-28-2012 01:55 PM)beck Wrote:  I say keep him as a closer, nice to have Broxton back but getting to the ninth with Chapman in you could pretty much count on winning.

I've heard this stat before and today Lance had it on his blog:

A study by Dave Smith of Retrosheet, found that over the last 70 years a team leading by one run, entering the 9th inning, wins the game 84% of the time, no matter who is pitching. Teams win 95% of games they take a lead of any margin to the 9th inning.
http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog...z2DYYRJaNX

Chapman saved 88% of his games last year. No doubt he's already one of the most dominate closers in baseball, but he's got a chance to make an even bigger impact in the rotation. They have to at least try it.

It's a good stat, the only caveat being if your staff is on the low end of that bell curve, it is totally demoralizing and can destroy a team. But with Broxton and an overall quality bullpen, that's unlikely to happen. And if it does, the Reds could relucatantly move him back there I suppose. So the smart move is to start Chapman and see if we can maximize our return with more quality innings of pitching from him.

Yes, if you get the 2012 Brewers bullpen you are toast. I like the Reds bullpen depth though. Hoover could be an important guy if Broxton struggles. I also wonder if they'll move LeCure to more of a setup role if Leake is going to be in the pen? Sam has been really good the last two years - 135 IP, 134 K, 44 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 3.46 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 3.05 K/BB.

(11-28-2012 03:07 PM)BigDawg Wrote:  I like taking the chance on him. If he can't cut it, then you send him back to the bullpen, but if it works out, the rotation is unbelievable. Considering the struggles he had going multiple days, etc, it seems like his arm may be best suited for the regular work of a starting pitcher, which is how he has always been used until he got to the Reds.

That's how I've seen things for awhile. I don't think he has the stamina to go back-to-back games that many times during a season. I think he needs the rest in between starts.

When you spend that much money on him, you have to see what you can get out of him as a SP IMO.

Even if Chapman is a great starter. Do the Reds shut him down late in the year?

(12-01-2012 10:38 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  Even if Chapman is a great starter. Do the Reds shut him down late in the year?

I'd like to see him start out in the bullpen and stretch out from there. He could pitch multiple innings a few times a week. That's what the Braves did with Kris Medlen last year. If he starts in the rotation then they'll have to shut him down for a significant period of time in the middle of the season or they'll have to skip the 5th starter a lot to have him anywhere near a 130 IP window before the playoffs start.

Don't pitchers in Cuba throw like a million innings? Pitchers are babied way too much.