(11-14-2012 09:29 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Why can't you let BYU finish their contract (I think it runs 4 more years with an option for 1 more) and deduct their ESPN money from the Big East football only share of TV revenue?

Surely having BYU play 4 Big East road games a year and possibly appearing in the title game is worth a few million a year on top of their ESPN money, right?

By the way, this article suggests that BYU's contract is only worth $4M a year from ESPN. If that's true, there's an even greater chance we will lure them. I had thought it was $8M a year.

The contract amount can differ based on how many games ESPN decides to show and what network they appear on. ESPN must show at least 4 games a year--but can show more if they choose to. It's estimated that for each game shown BYU gets 1 mil. That's why you see different amounts connected to the contract.

(11-14-2012 09:29 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Why can't you let BYU finish their contract (I think it runs 4 more years with an option for 1 more) and deduct their ESPN money from the Big East football only share of TV revenue?

Surely having BYU play 4 Big East road games a year and possibly appearing in the title game is worth a few million a year on top of their ESPN money, right?

By the way, this article suggests that BYU's contract is only worth $4M a year from ESPN. If that's true, there's an even greater chance we will lure them. I had thought it was $8M a year.

This is another option.... There are several ways to skin this cat, as I have mentioned above.

And yes, the BYU TV deal floats with a maximum payout of $8 million per year. BYU has yet to hit that number, and it doesn't look like it will happen this year either. However, everyone also must remember that it is not all about the money either.

There are multiple factors for BYU to join or not to join. It is not, and never has been exclusively about the bottom line ($).
Some main factors include, exposure, scheduling, access to quality post season play (translation: more exposure), and money. Some of these factors that would be weighted heavier for Houston, Memphis, and even Louisville are not necessarily the same factors that would be weighted for BYU, but they are all going to be balanced on the scale to make the decision.

Speaking of multiple ways to skin a cat....

For arguments sake, lets just say that BYU is making the maximum $8 million a year from ESPN.

I was told months ago by multiple people WHO WOULD KNOW that BYU adds $1.5-$2 million per football member more dollars to the TV deal than any other option.

BYU would have 4 years remaining on their ESPN deal if they were to join in 2015. Even if they made the max $8 million over those 4 years that would total out to be $32 million. (They have yet to come close to that number)

So why not buyout the remaining ESPN deal? Each football member in 2015 takes the $2 million in increased TV money that they would be receiving because BYU is a memeber over the other options, and pays off the ESPN buyout. Every year after that, each football member makes $2 million more a year for the life of the new TV deal.

The Football members lose nothing, and gain $2 million per year after 2015, a strong member with national recognition and following, and increase the stability and perception of the conference.

There are many ways to handle this. With ESPN, and even without.

I'm pretty sure Aresco doesn't think both BYU and AFA are going to say no. Highly likely that #14 is not going past both of them.

As for BYU's ESPN contract, not sure why people are saying it's an issue. As posted before, Navy has the same exact situation. Both would enter in 2015, while their current contracts don't expire until 2018. ECU had something similar when moving to C-USA, I think.

(11-14-2012 09:56 AM)TripleA Wrote:  I'm pretty sure Aresco doesn't think both BYU and AFA are going to say no. Highly likely that #14 is not going past both of them.

As for BYU's ESPN contract, not sure why people are saying it's an issue. As posted before, Navy has the same exact situation. Both would enter in 2015, while their current contracts don't expire until 2018. ECU had something similar when moving to C-USA, I think.

BYU adds about $20-$30 million pe year to the BE tv football contract.

I wonder as to the accuracy of that estimate.I would see the espn contract for BYU being at least twice as much as that.I would the net increase of BYU to the BE tv contract being about the same value as the BYU ESPN contract(thats a real number not a guess).

(11-13-2012 08:35 PM)Road Apple Wrote:  LOL. All that love from ESPN doesn't explain why they have been burying BYU on ESPNU and ESPN3 for most of their time slots.

????

Here is the breakdown of BYU's home schedule this year TV-wise that's covered by the ESPN contract:

1 game on ABC
3 games on ESPN
1 game on ESPNU
1 game on BYUtv

From an exposure standpoint, that is the best home TV coverage of any school in the country outside of Notre Dame on NBC. Considering that BYUtv is in more homes than the Big Ten Network, there is more national access to BYU football than even the Ohio States and Alabamas of the world. Just let that sink in and you understand why BYU could very well reject a Big East offer no matter how much a network like NBC might be willing to pay them. Who knows if the bowl situation will end up pushing BYU towards joining the Big East, but people are fooling themselves if they think that BYU made a mistake with signing up with ESPN when it is very clear that exposure means more than TV money to the LDS leadership. When it comes to pure *guaranteed* national exposure, BYU has a *great* deal - as in a better deal than anyone other than Notre Dame.

(11-14-2012 10:08 AM)Rich52c Wrote:  

(11-14-2012 09:56 AM)TripleA Wrote:  I'm pretty sure Aresco doesn't think both BYU and AFA are going to say no. Highly likely that #14 is not going past both of them.

As for BYU's ESPN contract, not sure why people are saying it's an issue. As posted before, Navy has the same exact situation. Both would enter in 2015, while their current contracts don't expire until 2018. ECU had something similar when moving to C-USA, I think.

BYU adds about $20-$30 million pe year to the BE tv football contract.

I wonder as to the accuracy of that estimate.I would see the espn contract for BYU being at least twice as much as that.I would the net increase of BYU to the BE tv contract being about the same value as the BYU ESPN contract(thats a real number not a guess).

BYU media value increases exponentially with them in a conference than as an individual value. See TCU, Utah, Colorado, WVU, etc.

It is not an apples to oranges comparison. You don't just slide the $ over.

(11-14-2012 10:19 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-13-2012 08:35 PM)Road Apple Wrote:  LOL. All that love from ESPN doesn't explain why they have been burying BYU on ESPNU and ESPN3 for most of their time slots.

????

Here is the breakdown of BYU's home schedule this year TV-wise that's covered by the ESPN contract:

1 game on ABC
3 games on ESPN
1 game on ESPNU
1 game on BYUtv

From an exposure standpoint, that is the best home TV coverage of any school in the country outside of Notre Dame on NBC. Considering that BYUtv is in more homes than the Big Ten Network, there is more national access to BYU football than even the Ohio States and Alabamas of the world. Just let that sink in and you understand why BYU could very well reject a Big East offer no matter how much a network like NBC might be willing to pay them. Who knows if the bowl situation will end up pushing BYU towards joining the Big East, but people are fooling themselves if they think that BYU made a mistake with signing up with ESPN when it is very clear that exposure means more than TV money to the LDS leadership. When it comes to pure *guaranteed* national exposure, BYU has a *great* deal - as in a better deal than anyone other than Notre Dame.

Frank what if you learned that the BE and its potential media partners were offering BYU **guaranteed** equal or better exposure than they currently have, 2 times the money they currently make (remember they aren't REALLY making $8 million), better access to better post season options than they currently have, and 75% less scheduling headaches?

(11-14-2012 12:41 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The more I look at it, the more Fresno makes sense to me. We need teams with the potential to rise up and claim he non-BCS slot. In the modern era, Air Force isnt going to do that. They are a solid respectable team---but that is also thier ceiling. They are about as good as they are going to be. Plus I like the concept of a second California team. Ive said it many times before--California has the largest population in the nation---37 million people. The next closest state with respect to population is Texas---they rank #2 with 28 million. I think a second California team would be a very solid investment.

BE would be wise to invest in a second CA school. Fresno got a lot of upside. If they are in a real conference, I really think they will do well. Valley is still growing so their media market is growing. I believe it is ranked #55 right now so it is a decent market. BE has to look at the bigger picture. Ideally, BE gets BYU without all the excess baggage. If BYU won't come without baggage, I think they should look at Fresno before AF. Fresno would average over 40K in attendance easier in the BE.

As a CA person, I would love to see SJSU too. However, that program still got a way to go to get to BE standards. Their attendance suck so far despite a great season. Their stadium is outdated and school is broke. It would be nice if they move to the new 49er stadium once that's built. I wish local people would get more excited about SJSU but they haven't yet.

(11-14-2012 10:19 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-13-2012 08:35 PM)Road Apple Wrote:  LOL. All that love from ESPN doesn't explain why they have been burying BYU on ESPNU and ESPN3 for most of their time slots.

????

Here is the breakdown of BYU's home schedule this year TV-wise that's covered by the ESPN contract:

1 game on ABC
3 games on ESPN
1 game on ESPNU
1 game on BYUtv

From an exposure standpoint, that is the best home TV coverage of any school in the country outside of Notre Dame on NBC. Considering that BYUtv is in more homes than the Big Ten Network, there is more national access to BYU football than even the Ohio States and Alabamas of the world. Just let that sink in and you understand why BYU could very well reject a Big East offer no matter how much a network like NBC might be willing to pay them. Who knows if the bowl situation will end up pushing BYU towards joining the Big East, but people are fooling themselves if they think that BYU made a mistake with signing up with ESPN when it is very clear that exposure means more than TV money to the LDS leadership. When it comes to pure *guaranteed* national exposure, BYU has a *great* deal - as in a better deal than anyone other than Notre Dame.

God I hate to agree with Frank. I must say this makes sense. BYU doesn't need The Big East except for bowl inclusion. I still believe BYU to The Big East is a pipe dream.
CJ

(11-13-2012 08:09 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Let's say the Big East is able to offer BYU $12M a year as a football only member. They are making $8M now.

Actual BYU contract is between $4.5 Million - $6 Million per year.

ESPN pays BYU between $800,000 - $1.2 Million per home game (higher amount for ESPN games...lower amounts for ESPNU and ESPN2 games).

Plus, BYU keeps 1 home game for their own TV Network, BYUTV, which ESPN doesn't pay a dime for obviously.

While total TV $$$ will always be important...BYU has to now consider "post-season bowl game options" for both playoff/access bowls or even secondary bowls...because BYU might be stuck for pre-Christmas Bowl games if they don't make the Final 4.

I've been one of the few on this board that has always mentioned BYU's current long-term deal with ESPN...which is why they couldn't say yes or even no to the Big East situation till AFTER they know what the Big East TV $$$ will be and also what will be Big East's future bowl contracts will be like as well.

(11-14-2012 10:39 AM)Borncoog74 Wrote:  Frank what if you learned that the BE and its potential media partners were offering BYU **guaranteed** equal or better exposure than they currently have, 2 times the money they currently make (remember they aren't REALLY making $8 million), better access to better post season options than they currently have, and 75% less scheduling headaches?

Are you suggesting that the Big East is willing to state that all BYU games are guaranteed to be on, say, NBC or NBC Sports Network except for one that's reserved for BYUtv? Well, sure, I think BYU would consider that from an exposure standpoint. The question is if the Big East would offer that type of guarantee - I'm not so sure that a school such as Louisville that is a more valuable athletic department than BYU would be so quick to sign on to that type of proposal.

I think the "scheduling headaches" aren't as big of a deal for BYU - they're only in their 2nd year of independence and, honestly, it's really quite amazing how attractive of schedules that they've put together in that short of a time in a world where schools often schedule games 10 or 12 years ahead of time.

The money isn't as big of a deal, either. I put down the calculations on another thread, but all it takes is around 1000 more new LDS members per year with average LDS tithing levels to completely dwarf any TV money interests after a few years (even compared to current Big Ten/SEC TV money levels). *That* is why the LDS emphasizes the growth of BYUtv so much. Even if it only spurs 1000 new members per year (and the reality is that they expect much more than that - a guy like Joel Osteen is able to add way more than 1000 members per year to his church on the strength of just 1 TV program per week), that's massive to the church's bottom line, and they believe that BYU football is the top way to get BYUtv into more people's homes. This is why you keep on hearing the same refrain from BYU about *controlling* home TV rights for football games - that's not posturing.

Now, I do think that the bowl access issue is a bigger deal for BYU. That's probably where the Big East has its strongest selling point. At the end of the day, it would be difficult for the Big East to match the TV exposure that BYU has today without completely p*ssing off the rest of the league's membership and the LDS leadership is looking at a whole lot more long-term dollars via tithing as opposed to short-term TV dollars. However, the bowl access is where the Big East has a clear advantage. Even then, though, BYU chose to go independent in a BCS system where the only way that they could get to a top tier bowl is to be ranked in the top 2 and make it to the national championship game. So, we shouldn't overstate the impact of the new bowl access announcement since it really isn't a change for BYU compared to the situation that they have now as an independent. We'll see if that truly bothers them going forward.

(11-14-2012 11:03 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  At the end of the day, it would be difficult for the Big East to match the TV exposure that BYU has today without completely p*ssing off the rest of the league's membership and the LDS leadership is looking at a whole lot more long-term dollars via tithing as opposed to short-term TV dollars.

Disagree...as its pretty darn obvious that the Big East Presidents AND their Commissioner WANT BYU to join their conf....so I don't think BYU will "piss off" said Presidents....as the Presidents know BYU is worth it.

(11-14-2012 11:11 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(11-14-2012 11:03 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  At the end of the day, it would be difficult for the Big East to match the TV exposure that BYU has today without completely p*ssing off the rest of the league's membership and the LDS leadership is looking at a whole lot more long-term dollars via tithing as opposed to short-term TV dollars.

Disagree...as its pretty darn obvious that the Big East Presidents AND their Commissioner WANT BYU to join their conf....so I don't think BYU will "piss off" said Presidents....as the Presidents know BYU is worth it.

Oh, I definitely think that the Big East *wants* BYU to join. The Big Ten wanted Notre Dame to join, too, but it was a matter of how much the rest of the league was willing to make special preferences for them (which was very little). I don't think the new Big East members would generally care about granting BYU some preferences, but a school like Louisville that could easily ask for the same types of preferences may have a different opinion (just as a school like Indiana might have been more willing to bend over for ND in the Big Ten than Michigan). That's all that I'm saying.

Yes, I am suggesting that the BE and future media partners WILL be able to guarantee equal or better exposure than they currently get.

Above you are making the argument against the different factors individually as if they were exclusive to one another. I am explaining them as a whole.

I am telling you that the BE is going to be able to improve every aspect of their current situation except for 1. And that 1 is up for debate.

That 1 can only be judged by the LDS, and that 1 is.... Will being a member of the 14 team Big East and all it has to offer, be perceived as "better" than going as an Indy. The top of BE administration believes that with what they will be able to offer BYU vs. Where they currently stand, they feel it would be just a stubborn move for BYU to turn it down because the BE will have improved every aspect of their current situation, and the only possible reason they would say no is because they think BYU perception will be stronger as an indy so much so that it outweighs all of the other improved factors combined.

My personal opinion is if BYU says no, they will be making a mistake that will haunt them for years. Maybe not in the first few, but their inability to make the playoff and be relegated to the Poinsetta or Las Vegas bowl will slowly deteriorate their situation each year.

(11-14-2012 11:30 AM)Borncoog74 Wrote:  Yes, I am suggesting that the BE and future media partners WILL be able to guarantee equal or better exposure than they currently get.

Above you are making the argument against the different factors individually as if they were exclusive to one another. I am explaining them as a whole.

I am telling you that the BE is going to be able to improve every aspect of their current situation except for 1. And that 1 is up for debate.

That 1 can only be judged by the LDS, and that 1 is.... Will being a member of the 14 team Big East and all it has to offer, be perceived as "better" than going as an Indy. The top of BE administration believes that with what they will be able to offer BYU vs. Where they currently stand, they feel it would be just a stubborn move for BYU to turn it down because the BE will have improved every aspect of their current situation, and the only possible reason they would say no is because they think BYU perception will be stronger as an indy so much so that it outweighs all of the other improved factors combined.

My personal opinion is if BYU says no, they will be making a mistake that will haunt them for years. Maybe not in the first few, but their inability to make the playoff and be relegated to the Poinsetta or Las Vegas bowl will slowly deteriorate their situation each year.

That's fair enough. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes down to that if all things are truly equal exposure-wise and the Big East can offer more money.

Frank, From a previous post of yours:

"Here is the breakdown of BYU's home schedule this year TV-wise that's covered by the ESPN contract:

1 game on ABC
3 games on ESPN
1 game on ESPNU
1 game on BYUtv"

Under BE (as an example)

2 NBC games a year-
#1 (Boise St.-annually)
#2 (alternating Louisville and Cincinnatti annually)

2 games on ESPN/FoxSports
1 game on NBCSports
2 Games on BYUtv w/ Rebroadcast rights to the BYUtv games

The above is just an example of a possible exposure package. Notice that Louisville, Cincinnatti, and Boise are getting the same exposure as BYU, and there will be other games that NBC can air over the year besides those, like Louisville vs. Cincy, Temple vs. Rutgers, etc....

There is plenty of exposure opportunity to make everyone happy throughout the year.

(11-14-2012 11:30 AM)Borncoog74 Wrote:  My personal opinion is if BYU says no, they will be making a mistake that will haunt them for years. Maybe not in the first few, but their inability to make the playoff and be relegated to the Poinsetta or Las Vegas bowl will slowly deteriorate their situation each year.

I totally agree. One of BYU's reasons for choosing independence was to try and offset the prestige advantage which in-state rival, Utah, gained by joining an "ESPN 5 conference". A better route for them is to join the Big East for football, which is less prestigious, but where, if they perform well, they have a far better chance of ocassionally playing in one of the Big 6 bowl games than Utah (and infinitely better than they will as independent).

(11-14-2012 12:24 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  

(11-14-2012 11:30 AM)Borncoog74 Wrote:  My personal opinion is if BYU says no, they will be making a mistake that will haunt them for years. Maybe not in the first few, but their inability to make the playoff and be relegated to the Poinsetta or Las Vegas bowl will slowly deteriorate their situation each year.

I totally agree. One of BYU's reasons for choosing independence was to try and offset the prestige advantage which in-state rival, Utah, gained by joining an "ESPN 5 conference". A better route for them is to join the Big East for football, which is less prestigious, but where, if they perform well, they have a far better chance of ocassionally playing in one of the Big 6 bowl games than Utah (and infinitely better than they will as independent).

That may be true but the BE is part of the MW gang. BYU's independence puts it on par with Utah. The BE isn't on par with the PAC and so that is the one reason they will not come over even if they get more TV $$. Its the preception that they are on the same level as Utah and the BE doesn't offer that perception anymore.
I don't think the bowl situation is that bad. The started with the Kraft and now have the Poinsetta lined up for them. They are eligible for an at-large berth for an Access Bowl if they are ranked high enough. That is good enough for them.

(11-13-2012 08:13 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(11-13-2012 08:09 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Let's say the Big East is able to offer BYU $12M a year as a football only member. They are making $8M now.

I wonder if BYU then simply shops the offer to ESPN, gets a raise, and stays independent.

ESPN will force them to honor that guido contract. The BYU situation is a perfect example of the tail wagging the dog. BYU fans were upset that Utah got a PAC invite so the BYU leaders made a hasty decision, exited the MWC, signed this crappy contract and now they are stuck.
CJ

You could look at it as an opportunity. If BYU is worth $8M a year to them alone, what is the Big East worth to them with Boise State, Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and BYU worth to them annually from a football standpoint ... ?

If I'm in the negotiating seat, their bid would have to start at a minimum of $16M annually for football alone. Just my two cents ...

(11-14-2012 12:44 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(11-14-2012 12:24 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  

(11-14-2012 11:30 AM)Borncoog74 Wrote:  My personal opinion is if BYU says no, they will be making a mistake that will haunt them for years. Maybe not in the first few, but their inability to make the playoff and be relegated to the Poinsetta or Las Vegas bowl will slowly deteriorate their situation each year.

I totally agree. One of BYU's reasons for choosing independence was to try and offset the prestige advantage which in-state rival, Utah, gained by joining an "ESPN 5 conference". A better route for them is to join the Big East for football, which is less prestigious, but where, if they perform well, they have a far better chance of ocassionally playing in one of the Big 6 bowl games than Utah (and infinitely better than they will as independent).

That may be true but the BE is part of the MW gang. BYU's independence puts it on par with Utah. The BE isn't on par with the PAC and so that is the one reason they will not come over even if they get more TV $$. Its the preception that they are on the same level as Utah and the BE doesn't offer that perception anymore.
I don't think the bowl situation is that bad. The started with the Kraft and now have the Poinsetta lined up for them. They are eligible for an at-large berth for an Access Bowl if they are ranked high enough. That is good enough for them.

Nobody in the free world actually believes that BYU's independence puts BYU on the same plane as Pac-12 membership. How do I know this? Because BYU would give up independence in a heartbeat if the Pac-12 invited them.