Courtesy of CBS Sportsline:
Conference Preview: Big East
Nov. 1, 2005
By Gregg Doyel
CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer
The enormous Big East, bloated to 16 teams after ingesting Louisville, Cincinnati, DePaul, Marquette and South Florida from Conference USA, will be very good this season.
Predicted Finish
Team Postseason
1. Connecticut NCAA
2. Louisville NCAA
3. Syracuse NCAA
4. West Virginia NCAA
5. Villanova NCAA
6. Georgetown NCAA
7. Pittsburgh NIT
8. Cincinnati NIT
9. Notre Dame NIT
10. Marquette NIT
11. DePaul None
12. Rutgers None
13. St. John's None
14. Providence None
15. Seton Hall None
<span style='color:green'>16. S. Florida None </span>
But what might have been.
With a healthy Curtis Sumpter, Villanova would have been a Final Four favorite. Without him, the Wildcats will be very good but definitely not great. He's not expected to play this season after suffering a knee injury last week.
Had Marcus Williams been eligible all season, Connecticut would have been a Final Four favorite. With him suspended until mid-December, thanks to an offseason charge of felony larceny, the Huskies will be very good but probably not great.
With healthy big men Juan Palacios, David Padgett and Brian Johnson, Louisville would have been a strong Final Four possibility. With them recovering from a variety of injuries, the Cardinals will be very good but not great. All are expected to play this season, though Johnson definitely and Palacios possibly might not be 100 percent.
Still, the Big East is huge and good -- so huge and so good that a longtime C-USA bully like Cincinnati, which returns four senior starters (but not coach Bob Huggins) from a 25-win team, might not reach the 2006 NCAA Tournament.
Connecticut
Top three: SF Rudy Gay, C Josh Boone, PG Marcus Williams.
NCAA or bust: Depending on the smoothness of Williams' midseason return, the Huskies could be a heavy favorite for the Final Four -- or a candidate for a first-round NCAA flameout. While UConn has NBA talent in Gay and Boone, and above-average Big East players almost everywhere else, everyone knows that the NCAA Tournament is all about the point guard. And, in Williams, the Huskies could have one of the best floor generals in the country -- if he is able to play up to his potential after sitting out the first semester. Until Williams returns, with backup A.J. Price suspended for the entire season, UConn must rely on freshmen Craig Austrie and Rob Garrison. There's enough talent here to overcome that deficiency over the course of 16 Big East games, but in the one-and-out setting of the NCAA Tournament, it's a chilling possibility.
Accolades
First team
G - Randy Foye, Villanova
G - Taquan Dean, Louisville
C - Josh Boone, UConn
F - Rudy Gay, UConn
F - Jeff Green, Georgetown
Second team
F - Juan Palacios, Louisville
G - Mike Gansey, West Virginia
F - Eric Hicks, Cincinnati
G - Carl Krauser, Pittsburgh
G - Gerry McNamara, Syracuse
Player of the year
Rudy Gay, UConn
Newcomer of the year
Eric Devendorf, Syracuse
Breakthrough player
Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
Coach on the hot seat
Louis Orr, Seton Hall
Louisville
Top three: SG Taquan Dean, PF Juan Palacios, C David Padgett.
NCAA or bust: The Cardinals have lots of holes, but they should have enough plugs to go around. Making its Big East debut under less than ideal circumstances, Louisville will be breaking in a new point guard and waiting for its best big men to heal. The loss of Francisco Garcia to the NBA means either longtime reserve Brandon Jenkins or freshman Andre McGee will have to play the point, unless neither option works and Taquan Dean is forced to return to his out-of-position role of a few years back. Under the basket, Palacios (ankle), Padgett (foot) and redshirt freshman Brian Johnson (knee) are coming off significant -- and recent -- injuries. All three are expected to play this season, even before the conference schedule starts, but it has to make for uneasy discussions among Rick Pitino's staff. Bright side? Padgett, Johnson and McGee are just three of Louisville's whopping seven-player class of newcomers.
Syracuse
Top three: G Gerry McNamara, PF Terrence Roberts, SG Eric Devendorf.
NCAA or bust: The Syracuse coaching staff is raving about Devendorf, whose slashing drive-and-kick style ought to produce more open looks this season for McNamara than he has seen since his freshman year alongside Carmelo Anthony. Devendorf's attacking game also will mean more touches close to the basket for Roberts and 6-11 C Darryl Watkins. Plus, Devendorf might just be good enough to add 15 or so points per game. Add it up, and the Orange will have plenty of offense this season even without four-year guys Hakim Warrick and Josh Pace. Where Syracuse could use help this season is from sophomore PG Josh Wright, who was a disappointment last year but who could take some heat off McNamara, Devendorf and junior SG Louie McCroskey by providing key back-up minutes.
West Virginia
Top three: SG Mike Gansey, C Kevin Pittsnogle, SG Joe Herber.
NCAA or bust: Last season, after taking a 20-point lead on Louisville in the Elite Eight, West Virginia almost became the most unlikely Final Four team since Penn in 1979. It wouldn't be such a shock this season for the Mountaineers to make another NCAA run, considering seven of their top nine players are back and 7-0 Penn State transfer Robert Summers becomes eligible. Summers made 41 starts in two years in the Big Ten, where he averaged 3.9 ppg and 4.2 rpg. Junior SF Frank Young has the inside track to replace graduated Tyrone Sally, and Pittsnogle knows that a consistent season from him could translate to an NBA roster spot next year.
Villanova
Top three: G Randy Foye, G Allan Ray, C Jason Fraser.
NCAA or bust: Yes, we've got Villanova fifth. True, Big East coaches voted the Wildcats first -- but the voting was conducted before Sumpter's injury was announced. Which means the next lucky break Jay Wright catches will be the first lucky break he has caught at Villanova. The latest bolt of bad luck, Sumpter's likely season-ending knee injury in late October, will leave Villanova with a frontcourt that is every bit as questionable as its backcourt is exceptional. The Wildcats have the best quartet of guards in the country, with Foye and Ray complemented by Mike Nardi and Kyle Lowry. But the frontcourt is in shambles. Fraser, bless his heart, is recovering from more knee surgery and will remain one misstep away from yet another surgery. One frontcourt reserve, Marcus Austin, is done for the season with a bad shoulder. Another reserve, Chris Charles, will miss several games with a bad wrist. The expected January addition of former Maryland recruit Shane Clark would come in handy, but the 6-foot-6 Clark is more of a wing than a post player. Then again, the same was said of Sumpter -- and he made do.
Georgetown
Top three: PF Jeff Green, SF Brandon Bowman, C Roy Hibbert.
NCAA or bust: In the Big East, only Georgetown has a frontcourt that can hang with Connecticut. If the Hoyas can get better guard play from Ashanti Cook and Jonathan Wallace, with help from their guard-heavy freshman class, sixth place is too low for this team. The top six scorers are back from last season's team that had an NCAA Tournament spot in its grasp until a late stumble sent the Hoyas to the NIT. Green, Bowman and Hibbert are potential NBA players -- OK, there's nothing "potential" about Green and Hibbert -- and freshman SF Octavius Spann has been impressive in preseason work. Georgetown isn't going anywhere, either. John Thompson III is working on one of the best two or three recruiting classes in the Big East.
Pittsburgh
Top three: PG Carl Krauser, SG Ronald Ramon, C Aaron Gray.
NIT or bust: The Panthers are going to struggle to reach the NCAA Tournament for a myriad of reasons: (1) C Chris Taft and PF Chevon Troutman are gone. (2) The early season schedule is too easy, which will drag down Pittsburgh's RPI to the point that (3) a break-even record in the Big East might not be enough to impress the NCAA selection committee. That said, Pittsburgh has some nice pieces in place beginning with Krauser, who wisely put off his career overseas, and Gray, who could match Taft's sophomore production if he can stay out of foul trouble. That's a big if, though, because of Gray's lack of mobility. The Panthers will get a boost from a strong freshman class led by SF Sam Young, PF Tyrell Biggs and future starting PG Levance Fields.
Cincinnati
Top three: PF Eric Hicks, G James White, G Armein Kirkland.
NIT or bust: A distracting offseason is no way to begin Year 1 in the Big East, but that's what the Bearcats are faced with after the August dismissal of longtime coach Bob Huggins. He has been replaced this season by his top assistant, Andy Kennedy, which means continuity for a team featuring four seniors (Hicks, White, Kirkland and PG Jihad Muhammad). However, the loss of Huggins cost the Bearcats their top recruit, junior college transfer Ivan Johnson, who fled for Oregon. Johnson was the likely replacement for first-round NBA draft pick Jason Maxiell, so his absence means a larger role for another juco transfer, Cedric McGowan, as well as even more weight on the enormous shoulders of Hicks.
Notre Dame
Top three: PG Chris Quinn, C Torin Francis, SG Colin Falls.
NIT or bust: It's the end of the Chris Thomas era at Notre Dame, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. No question, Thomas was a rare player (one of three in NCAA history with 2,000 points and 800 assists) and a great ambassador for the school and the game. At the same time, the Irish failed to reach either of the last two NCAA Tournaments. That NIT streak probably will reach three years this season, though Notre Dame ought to go into February still in the NCAA mix. By that time, freshmen like 6-7 Ryan Ayers, 7-0 Luke Zeller and backup PG Kyle McAlarney will form the heart of a decent, if young, bench. However, Notre Dame will miss PF Jordan Cornette more than you might expect, especially on the defensive end.
Marquette
Top three: SF Steve Novak, PG Dominic James, PF Jamil Lott.
NIT or bust: As if the transition from Conference USA to the Big East wasn't daunting enough, the Golden Eagles must do it at the same time they transition from a senior point guard to a freshman. Dominic James won't be Travis Diener -- nobody could be Travis Diener -- but James will be pretty good. He's a scoring point guard who doesn't shoot like Diener (again, who does?) but who can get into the lane better than his predecessor. That could mean more open looks for Novak beyond the 3-point arc, where he's a 45-percent shooter. The Golden Eagles ought to be better in the post this season, with the arrival of junior college transfer Jamil Lott and the freshman-to-sophomore maturation of Ousmane Barro and Ryan Amoroso. Lott leads a promising group of newcomers that include versatile 6-9 Tulane transfer Dan Fitzgerald and freshman guards Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews IV.
DePaul
Top three: PG Sammy Mejia, C Wesley Green, SF Wilson Chandler.
Bust: Not like DePaul had a say in the matter, but this is turning out to be the wrong year for the Blue Demons to be joining the Big East. For one thing, three of their top four players from last season's 20-11 C-USA team -- Quemont Greer, Drake Diener and LeVar Seals -- are gone. For another, the transition from former coach Dave Leitao to new coach Jerry Wainwright is sure to have some rough patches. And finally, the Blue Demons have an ambitious non-conference schedule that could leave them needing to win more than they lose in the Big East simply to qualify for an NIT bid. And if this team wins more than it loses in the Big East, DePaul is going to the NCAA Tournament ... and Wainwright will deserve conference coach of the year and an apology from anyone (me) who questioned his hiring in the first place. For that to happen, Green must finally play as big as his body, and big seasons are required of two newcomers: Chandler, a freshman, and Miami transfer Karron Clarke.
Rutgers
Top three: SG Quincy Douby, PF Adrian Hill, SF J.R. Inman.
Bust: A strong freshman class led by Inman and PG Anthony Farmer won't be enough to save Rutgers' postseason hopes. Which means it might not be enough to save Gary Waters' job, depending on the patience level of his bosses. The Scarlet Knights have a great Big East scorer in Douby and will get back Adrian Hill after he redshirted last season with a knee injury. Inman is a darkhorse candidate for Big East Freshman of the Year, while Farmer could become a four-year starter at point guard. If he's not, that means Rutgers will have to recruit awfully well in the future. Too bad the future can't hurry up and get here.
St. John's
Top three: SG Daryll Hill, PF Lamont Hamilton, PG Eugene Lawrence.
Bust: Everyone who matters is back from last season. And that passes for good news? Not sure, considering the Red Storm went 3-13 last season in the Big East. Hill and Lawrence make for a skilled, quick -- but tiny -- backcourt. Hamilton is underrated nationally, and freshman wings Anthony Mason Jr. and Ricky Torres could be special. That's a nice start. Unfortunately for St. John's, that's also where it ends. On the bright side, next season will be pretty good -- if everyone (especially Hill and Hamilton) comes back.
Providence
Top three: SG Dwight Brewington, PG Donnie McGrath, C Randall Hanke.
Bust: Ryan Gomes carried Providence last season, but not all that far. The Friars went 4-12 in the Big East, and now they're going to try it without one of the best players in school history. Not fun. Brewington has all-conference ability this season, and Hanke, a 6-10 sophomore, could get there before he finishes his career. What Providence really needs is a consistent season from its four-year starter at point guard (McGrath) and breakout years from PF Herbert Hill and SF DeSean White. And all that might, just maybe, get the Friars into the 2006 Big East Tournament.
Seton Hall
Top three: PF Kelly Whitney, PG Donald Copeland, C John Garcia.
Bust: Seton Hall was bad last season, and four of its best five players from that team are gone. The newcomers are promising, most notably 6-9 freshman John Garcia and Division I transfers 6-8 F Mike Pilgrim (from Cincinnati) and 6-7 F Stan Gaines (from Minnesota). That doesn't change the fact that the Pirates' backcourt will be among the worst in major-college basketball this season. Louis Orr's career record at Seton Hall (62-57 in four years) is about to slip under .500.
<span style='color:green'>
South Florida
Top three: C Solomon Jones, SF Melvin Buckley, PG Chris Howard.
Bust: Here's the deal. South Florida was a bad team last year in Conference USA. Its best three players graduated, and its most promising returning player turned pro in Europe, and its preseason starting PG, David Sills, was kicked off the team this week. Final analysis: South Florida will be a really bad Big East team. </span>
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