Frank the Tank
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RE: How Much Does NBE Peformance Matter In Negotiations?
(09-04-2012 01:43 PM)adcorbett Wrote: (09-04-2012 11:18 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: This is where I think so many people go astray. Every single fan of every single program has an unwavering belief that all it will take is a couple of good seasons and that will (1) change national perception, (2) change TV networks' minds and (3) change the recruiting landscape. It doesn't matter whether you're in a power conference or non-power conference - it's what everyone believes about their own school.
Here is what I have seen in regards to that. There are six programs who have completely changed their perception in a course of a 7-10 year period, who really did not have a national cache (or in one case had not had one for a long time) prior to their sudden success. These programs are: Virginia Tech, Marshall, Louisville, Boise St, TCU, and Miami. Some kept it, some lost it, one lost it and might get it back. Here’s the list in sequential order:
- 1) Virginia Tech - built it's program, maintained it's image, and is probably the next in line to get in the "Kings" category that is famously referenced from the SI article from five years ago http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/wr.../cfb.bag/. Transition grade A
2) Marshall – Marshall was Boise St before Boise St. They probably in some way helped pave the way for BSU to be taken seriously. Their biggest downfall was being about seven or eight years too early, as they were too early to ever be given the chance to play in bowls against bigger named teams like Boise was able to do, and prove their worth. A couple of bad seasons, and most have probably forgotten that they won more games in the 1990’s than any other college football team in any division save for Florida State. Transition Grade D
3) Louisville – Louisville was the only BCS program not slotted in the “Program pecking order” article referenced above (Kings of football) because as of its writing no one knew what to do with them. While they had some success in the early 90’s (Fiesta Bowl, Liberty bowl win over Michigan St) like what was about to come, it all disappeared under a bad coaching hire. Then around the turn of the Century, Louisville agreed to allow ESPN to schedule them to play any night of the week, against any opponent, and a team whose records had not quite justified it yet, playing outside of the BCS, regularly had 8-10 national TV games per year, complete with a whole lot of offense and a whole lot of scoring (and not really a lot of defense). In a four year period they went from a 1-11 team, to playing more national TV games than just about anyone, to one dropped pass away from being the first BCS Buster (they still qualified, but Utah grabbed the only auto bid for non BCS schools). They went on to have a true juggernaut team, that even after losing its best player in the first game, came within an earshot of being in the national championship game (unfortunately a cry many a Big East team has had). One diasterous hiring later, the program fell apart. Luckily for Louisville it appears that enough good will was built in prior to 2007 that a good season appears to allow Louisville to be abel to get it’s “spot” back in terms of perception. Transition Grade C
4) Boise St – Their ten year run has been nothing short of remarkable. No need to rehash it. They have been through a coaching change, and only improved. Even in a “rebuilding year” they took a perceived Big Ten favorite to the wire. Next year they move to a BCS conference, but they appear to have kept their reputation, in part because they beat every “big name” team they face, save for one. The verdict is still out as to whether anyone will watch them on TV if they do not have a stellar team, but that is not their fault: they just keep on winning. Tranisition Grade A-
5) TCU – TCU did not get the pub that Boise did, and somehow quietly built a string of double digit win seasons. Built off the “leftover” talent that Texas, A&M, and Oklahoma did not take, and stellar coaching, they have built a solid team on both sides of the ball. Because of their history being in SWC, they seemingly were automatically bumped up without any question. Even if they lose, they will at worst be seen as a Knight for the foreseeable future. Transition Grade B
6) Miami – Strange that I had to actually go back and add Miami. Really Miami should be listed first because I am lisiting these in the order in which they happened, but it is so different than the rest, it would just be out of place. I had almost forgotten that they did more or less come up out of nowhere in a short period of time because they just seem so ingrained as a football power. Theirs is such a unique case study, because they are the only ones on the list to win a national title during the time they were still building their program, then win another, which makes it such a different case. Transition Grade A+
I did not include Utah on this, because they seemingly slowly built their name up over a 20 year period. West Virginia has always been a “solid” team, even appearing in a national title game not that far back. While I would say they are higher on the food chain then they have ever been, they don’t belong in this discussion. After I went back and added Miami, I considered adding FSU as well, but upon further review, their build to prominence happened over 20 years before exploding in the 90’s. Also note the only reason I gave VPI an “A” and Boise St an “A-“ as opposed to both being “A+,” is that once I added Miami and gave them their deserving “A+,” I realized I could not give VPI the same grade as Miami. Likewise I realized that i could not give Boise St the same grade as Virginia Tech either.
I would also say that Oregon has really risen up dramatically over the past decade (aided greatly by Nike support). On the flip side in the Pac-12, Colorado was a legit national power a decade ago but has now turned into a stunningly weak program.
TCU's transition is rated as an "A+" in my eyes. There was certainly no guarantee that they'd be back at major status - they could have easily turned into Rice after the collapse of the SWC and their win in the Rose Bowl is symbolically the biggest non-AQ victory that is possible outside of winning the national championship game. To me, they've done the best out of anyone to change their lot in life because they have maintained strong academic standards at a private school on top of winning with multiple coaches over that time period. By the time this round of conference realignment began, TCU had positioned themselves as the most attractive non-AQ school available by far. I had pushed for the Big East to add TCU years ago over the other usual expansion suspects and the conference didn't add them until it was too late. (To be fair to the Big East, TCU would have taken an invite to the Big 12 as long as Texas was a member no matter what, so nothing really could be done there whenever that invite came down the pike.)
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How Much Does NBE Peformance Matter In Negotiations?
