(07-30-2012 12:59 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: Post your projected order of finish, and a brief analysis of your projections if you'd like.
40 Wins, 40 Losses
FIU (7-1)
Troy (6-2)
UL (5-3)
ASU (5-3)
WKU (4-4)
MTSU (4-4)
ULM (3-5)
UNT (3-5)
USA (2-6)
FAU (1-7)
A few thoughts: I can't please everyone. Someone is going to beech about their placement. I am not here to please. There must be an equal number of wins and losses, thus there are only a small number of points to go around. I do understand that in the new sunbelt, everyone has a team they don't play and this could minutely effect the equal wins and losses rule. But for now, I will use 40/40 and assume there cannot be two 8-0 teams or two 0-8 teams. While I think every team will be improved, every team can't be improved in conference - someone has to fall so that someone will rise.
North Texas: Here's where I will catch the most flack. I picked them tied for 7th place. Where North Texas will hurt the most is in what they lose on defense. They rank 115th out of 124 FBS teams in terms of how much of last years defense they return. Observe the chart below. In a conference dominated by high scoring offenses, these teams could be in for some real trouble when the season starts. Almost half our teams lie in the Bottom 10 in terms of how much defense they bring back. This is a big advantage FIU will have over everyone else. Unlike Arkansas State and Louisiana, North Texas doesn't bring back a great offense to make up for defensive issues.
% of Tackles Returning
114. ULM (47.01%)
115. North Texas (46.41%)
119. Arkansas State (44.15%)
121. Louisiana (42.90%)
Arkansas State: See statistics above about % of Tackles Returning. Though it could be argued that with Malzhan's offense, defense won't matter, much like Troy's 2009 team. The same could be said for Louisiana. However, Arkansas State ranked 1st in the country in least amount of injuries. I don't expect them to be as lucky in 2012. Also, Arkansas State played many of the sunbelt's top dogs at home, where, like Troy, they are spectacular. Observe the chart below. Now Arkansas State has to play some tough teams on the road instead of at home. Their road record is vastly different than their home record. Conversely, Troy is #1 in the difference in home and away play, and gets all four of the SBC's top teams at home, as opposed to on the road, which was the case in 2011. Arkansas State will have a lot of work to do with the offensive line. The chart below expands on this. It can be argued that the red wolves had as much to rebuild last year and turned out fine. That may be the case, but between the defense and the offensive line, I don't think all of the pieces will fall together as ASU fans would like. Troy will have some work to do as well, though the spring game has showed improvements along the line. Both Arkansas State and Louisiana have great programs brewing. I don't think either team brings enough back on defense to win the SBC title, and it will be much tough the second time around to have the same success of their breakout years. Neither team will be flying under the radar, and that's the biggest issue they'll have to deal with.
Home/Away Differences
1. Troy (Home: 89.13% | Away: 39.13% | Difference: 50.00%)
2. Arkansas State (Home: 62.26% | Away: 17.46% | Difference: 44.80%)
15. Middle Tennessee (Home: 66.67% | Away: 35.94% | Difference: 30.73%)
58. WKU (Home: 68.33% | Away: 45.16% | Difference: 23.17%)
Career OL Starts Returning
70. FAU (57)
73. Troy (56)
103. Middle Tennessee (37)
109. Arkansas State (33)
Troy: Why so high? A few things have sparked my thoughts here: First, as discussed before, Troy gets the Top 4 SBC Teams, at home. The chart above shows the difference in home and away play. Observe the following chart below. Home Field Advantage will be largely in Troy's favor this season. The second reason is similar. Troy is 24-0 in home openers and Louisiana is 0-21 in road openers. Those streaks are for a game against a Top 4 SBC Team, which gives it prime importance. I can't see Troy losing this game. Troy should be playing at ULM this season which would be an automatic loss. They're the only sunbelt team that truly has our number. We've never won at ULM. They're not on the schedule this year. That's a huge plus to the 2012 schedule. Troy adds three deep threats that didn't play last year and the offensive line and running dominated during the spring, much of what was absent during the 2011 season. Could be a faulty defensive front, but we'll have to wait and see. Troy adds the nations #2 cornerback and a JUCO All-American cornerback as well as a cornerbacks coach from Boise State. The Trojans will also be switching to the 3-4 bandit package this fall, a new defensive scheme for Troy that could help put up improved numbers.
FBS Home Records Past Decade: 2001-2010
5. Troy (41-6) (now 44-8)
52. Arkansas State (35-18)
65. Middle Tennessee (32-20)
69. WKU (34-23)
Again, many of you will say your team won't finish that low, but someone has to finish that low. That's just the way things are. I have a few more thoughts about some of the other teams, but I didn't want to bombard you all with a wall of text. So if you're upset or curious about a certain placement I'll be sure to clear it up for you. I have some thoughts about MTSU and FIU particularly, more so than the some of the others I left out.
Let's here your projections.
There will always be disagreements with preseason polls. If someone disagrees, let them give explanation as to why. Simply bitching offers no chance for discussion.
My picks based upon schedule, recruiting classes and returning talent.
1)
Florida International -(7-1, SBC) Why? The Panthers return the most talent from the top to bottom of their roster period. They also return the conferences best defense and a out of conference schedule consisting of Duke, Akron, Louisville and UCF. (One loss to UL on the road.)
2)
Louisiana- (6-2, SBC) Why? The Cajuns will return one of the conferences top offenses with an improved running game, head coach with his system in place and good special teams led by senior PK Brett Baer. The defense is the only question and it may take while before they show improvement over last's years defense that gave up 30 points or more to five Sun Belt opponets. The Cajuns will be the hardest venue to play at averaging over 30,000 at Cajun Field. They will not loose at home for consecutive seasons, but they will trip up on the road against Troy and ULM. Both will be emotional games for the home teams.
3)
Troy- (5-3, SBC) Why? Between 2005-2010 Coach Blakeney averaged 8 or more wins per season. With Troy's talent returning on offense and a home schedule that will include contenders ASU, FIU and Louisiana all visiting this year, the Trojans will be a contender again. There is no reason to suspect Coach Blakeney can no longer win in the Sun Belt Conference. One season is not enough evidence to prove otherwise. The Trojans will loose to FIU, MTU and WKU.
4)
ASU- (5-3, SBC) Why? Sure Malzahn returns Aplin and very good offensive talent to work with. But like UL and Troy, the defense will be a question losing their top three defenders to the NFL. While many have already celebrated Malzahn as the next Freeze or Hudspeth, there is one problem with that prediction. Freeze and Hudspeth took their lumps and learned how to win in the lower levels of NCAA football as head coaches, Malzahn has not. Malzahn has never ran a program nor won a single football game at any level of NCAA football. While some will dismiss that fact as irrelevant, I do not. Playing Troy, FIU and UL on the road will make it more challenging then last season and Malzahn will hit a few bumps in the road along the way. (Sun Belt losses to UL, FIU and Troy).
5)
WKU- (4-4, SBC) Why? No Bobby Rainey! Losing Booby Rainey is similar to UL losing Tyrell Fenroy, you just don't replace those types of backs with underclassmen. Also, the Hilltoppers have road games at Alabama, Kentucky, FIU, ASU and UL and face Southern Miss at home. That is not the schedule of a Sun Belt contender and certainly not this season without running back Bobby Rainey. If Coach Taggart wins out against that schedule, then he will be SBC of the Year! (Sun Belt losses to UL, ASU, FIU and UNT.)
6)
ULM- (4-4, SBC) (Losses to ASU, WKU, FIU and MTU)
7)
MTU- (4-4, SBC) (Losses to ULM, ASU, FIU and WKU)
8)
North Texas- (3-5, SBC) (Losses to MTU, UL, WKU, ASU and ULM)
9)
Florida Atlantic- (2-6, SBC) (Win at USA)
10)
South Alabama- (0-8) No SBC wins
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Projected Order of Finish - Post Yours
