http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2012/Jul...uly12.html

Some interesting projections. Akron and UMass fans are not advised to look.

He's predicting NIU to have the #1 rush offense (surprise to me) and WMU to have the #1 pass offense (no surprise there).

Big declines for NIU and Toledo in offensive ppg from last season. However, he's predicting NIU, BG, and CMU to have decent improvements in defensive ppg.

From the looks of it, he expects CMU to have the biggest improvement overall.

Here's a good link to last season's MAC stats to use as a comparison.

http://www.mac-sports.com/portals/20/MAC...nfldrs.htm

I looked. I laughed. These projections don't take into account scheme changes.

(07-12-2012 02:24 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  I looked. I laughed. These projections don't take into account scheme changes.

So when he predicts that Arizona will have the most improved rushing stats and the least improved passing stats in the nation...he isn't accounting for Rich Rod's new offense?

(07-12-2012 02:29 PM)EA3 Wrote:  

(07-12-2012 02:24 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  I looked. I laughed. These projections don't take into account scheme changes.

So when he predicts that Arizona will have the most improved rushing stats and the least improved passing stats in the nation...he isn't accounting for Rich Rod's new offense?

He is. Arizona, however, is high-profile compared to Akron, and people know that RichRod brings that kind of offense with him to whatever team he coaches. I bet Phil Steele just looked at who graduated at Akron, who was coming back, and moved on to some BCS team. There's no possible way Akron has offensive numbers that bad in the kind of offense we're switching to unless we decide to forfeit every game during the 3rd quarter.

(07-12-2012 02:34 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  

(07-12-2012 02:29 PM)EA3 Wrote:  

(07-12-2012 02:24 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  I looked. I laughed. These projections don't take into account scheme changes.

So when he predicts that Arizona will have the most improved rushing stats and the least improved passing stats in the nation...he isn't accounting for Rich Rod's new offense?

He is. Arizona, however, is high-profile compared to Akron, and people know that RichRod brings that kind of offense with him to whatever team he coaches. I bet Phil Steele just looked at who graduated at Akron, who was coming back, and moved on to some BCS team. There's no possible way Akron has offensive numbers that bad in the kind of offense we're switching to unless we decide to forfeit every game during the 3rd quarter.

So, your statement: "these projections don't take into account scheme changes", is completely wrong.

And, you are basically saying that Phil Steele doesn't bother to take into consideration EVERY single detail with EVERY single team when he makes his predictions...which doesn't seem to line up with his comprehensive previews and info.

His projections for Akron have more to do with a lack of talent than anything else.

The guy is pretty decent at his predictions. Certainly he can't be right about everything but he did have NIU, Ohio, and Toledo as the top three teams last season and he was right. He even picked the correct conference records for NIU and Toledo. He was certainly wrong with BG, BSU, and CMU last season but the rest of the teams he pegged pretty well.

(07-12-2012 02:39 PM)EA3 Wrote:  And, you are basically saying that Phil Steele doesn't bother to take into consideration EVERY single detail with EVERY single team when he makes his predictions...which doesn't seem to line up with his comprehensive previews and info.

Comprehensive previews and info for many teams, sure, but not all.

(07-12-2012 03:05 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  

(07-12-2012 02:39 PM)EA3 Wrote:  And, you are basically saying that Phil Steele doesn't bother to take into consideration EVERY single detail with EVERY single team when he makes his predictions...which doesn't seem to line up with his comprehensive previews and info.

Comprehensive previews and info for many teams, sure, but not all.

You honestly think he projects Akron that low simply because he didn't do his homework?

I'm not disagreeing that he probably spends more time on BCS type programs. Those guys make up the majority of his readers. However, he doesn't strike me as someone who cuts a lot of corners. By most accounts, he provides the one of the best preseason previews available.

I guess here is my question, what exactly has Bowden done in the last 8 months that makes you think Phil Steele's projections will be way off?

(07-12-2012 03:11 PM)EA3 Wrote:  I guess here is my question, what exactly has Bowden done in the last 8 months that makes you think Phil Steele's projections will be way off?

Brought in transfers, a near-total change in player's attitude for the better, but most importantly is just the fact that he knows how to run a competent offense.

If you followed Akron as closely as I did (probably only 100 people out there who bothered to go to all the home games) during the Ianello years, you would have seen that talent wasn't lacking so much as it was managed so poorly that I truly believe that any local peewee coach could have tripled our win total. I can't blame anybody for not watching as closely as I have, but we're way better off than Ianello made us look. This year will be night and day from last.

(07-12-2012 03:56 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  

(07-12-2012 03:11 PM)EA3 Wrote:  I guess here is my question, what exactly has Bowden done in the last 8 months that makes you think Phil Steele's projections will be way off?

Brought in transfers, a near-total change in player's attitude for the better, but most importantly is just the fact that he knows how to run a competent offense.

If you followed Akron as closely as I did (probably only 100 people out there who bothered to go to all the home games) during the Ianello years, you would have seen that talent wasn't lacking so much as it was managed so poorly that I truly believe that any local peewee coach could have tripled our win total. I can't blame anybody for not watching as closely as I have, but we're way better off than Ianello made us look. This year will be night and day from last.

Apparently every magazine/college football blog/whatever else does preseason college football rankings didn't do their research either, since they all predict Akron to suck.

OK. Name any college preview magazine out there who really does their homework for all the MAC schools.

How many years have we all spent dismissing their predictions and rankings as BS, but now fomr some reason they're accurate because I express some doubts?

(07-12-2012 04:02 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  OK. Name any college preview magazine out there who really does their homework for all the MAC schools.

How many years have we all spent dismissing their predictions and rankings as BS, but now fomr some reason they're accurate because I express some doubts?

while not a magazine per se http://www.presnapread.com is pretty unbiased and I think does a good job ranking teams. He even shows you pre and final rankings and discusses where he f'd up.

(07-12-2012 04:02 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  OK. Name any college preview magazine out there who really does their homework for all the MAC schools.

How many years have we all spent dismissing their predictions and rankings as BS, but now fomr some reason they're accurate because I express some doubts?

Steele would be the best IMO.

I hear where you are coming from, and there is definitely optimism at Akron. But you miss the point. It would be crazy for any preseason publication to predict a huge leap for Akron this year. The biggest jump MOST, not all, teams experience after a new coaching change is in year two. Any other prediction would be only a hunch. The safe bet is to predict another dismal year, gauge their progress and look for a big jump in year two.

Looks like Temple's going to suck balls this year.

(07-12-2012 07:27 PM)Campbell4President Wrote:  Looks like Temple's going to suck balls this year.

Shhh!!!...what are you doing? You are going to blow it!

My wife reads this forum and for years I have been telling her that "sucking balls" was a good thing.

Someone's taking a blessed magazine prediction pretty personally.

(07-12-2012 02:29 PM)EA3 Wrote:  

(07-12-2012 02:24 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  I looked. I laughed. These projections don't take into account scheme changes.

So when he predicts that Arizona will have the most improved rushing stats and the least improved passing stats in the nation...he isn't accounting for Rich Rod's new offense?

No, he's accounting for the fact that his offense gets to play against Toledo in the opener and figures they will just run the ball after the 1st quarter.

Seriously though, of course they would account for Rich Rod's schemes.......he's at Arizona. They could care less about a MAC school that hasn't won much in the last couple of years though. That's just the perception of being in the MAC and not a conference like the PAC 12.

(07-12-2012 03:11 PM)EA3 Wrote:  I guess here is my question, what exactly has Bowden done in the last 8 months that makes you think Phil Steele's projections will be way off?

One thing is that Bowden doesn't call the same three plays on 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs. There's definitely a 4th play and even a 5th play in his playbook and he isn't scared of using them.

(07-12-2012 02:34 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  

(07-12-2012 02:29 PM)EA3 Wrote:  

(07-12-2012 02:24 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  I looked. I laughed. These projections don't take into account scheme changes.

So when he predicts that Arizona will have the most improved rushing stats and the least improved passing stats in the nation...he isn't accounting for Rich Rod's new offense?

He is. Arizona, however, is high-profile compared to Akron, and people know that RichRod brings that kind of offense with him to whatever team he coaches. I bet Phil Steele just looked at who graduated at Akron, who was coming back, and moved on to some BCS team. There's no possible way Akron has offensive numbers that bad in the kind of offense we're switching to unless we decide to forfeit every game during the 3rd quarter.

Oh, so your biased opinion is better than Phil's objective one. I get it!

Why would NIU leading the MAC in rush offense surprise you? Do you know who is going to be playing QB?