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What will UCFs record be this Fall?
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MWD1001 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
UCF has had a steady and predictable schedule of results going back to 1985. Lose to just about every team from a conference considered stronger, beat just about every team from a weaker conference, and go .500 against teams in their conference. This has happened no matter what conference (MAC, C-USA) or division (DII, D1-AA, D1-Indy) they've been in for the past 27 years. Unfortunately, since the Big East has been watered down somewhat I fully expect this trend to continue. The NCAA is now down to 5 power conferences, and UCF will likely lose 95% of the time to Big 12, Big 10, PAC-12, ACC and SEC schools, while going .500 in-conference, and winning majority of games against MAC, C-USA, and other lower tier conferences. Easy betting if you're a gambling man.
(This post was last modified: 06-19-2012 11:24 AM by MWD1001.)
06-19-2012 11:09 AM
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jaredf29 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
Lets hope not.
06-19-2012 12:23 PM
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SublimeKnight Offline
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Post: #13
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
(06-19-2012 11:09 AM)MWD1001 Wrote:  UCF has had a steady and predictable schedule of results going back to 1985. Lose to just about every team from a conference considered stronger, beat just about every team from a weaker conference, and go .500 against teams in their conference. This has happened no matter what conference (MAC, C-USA) or division (DII, D1-AA, D1-Indy) they've been in for the past 27 years. Unfortunately, since the Big East has been watered down somewhat I fully expect this trend to continue. The NCAA is now down to 5 power conferences, and UCF will likely lose 95% of the time to Big 12, Big 10, PAC-12, ACC and SEC schools, while going .500 in-conference, and winning majority of games against MAC, C-USA, and other lower tier conferences. Easy betting if you're a gambling man.

You could make this same post about Penn State, or FSU, or pretty close to any school for that matter.

There are very few Alabama's (on one end) and UAB's (on the other end) that just consistently win or lose. Most programs go in cycles, that over the course of 15-20 years look just like how you described UCF. This could be the year we lose all our OOC games against AQ opponents, drop a non-AQ OOC game, and lose 75% of our conference games. We could also win most of our OOC games and win our conference.

My guess for this year is 11-3 give or take 2 win (yes, I believe at worst this team gets 9 wins this year).
06-19-2012 12:50 PM
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atsKnight Offline
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Post: #14
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
(06-19-2012 12:50 PM)SublimeKnight Wrote:  
(06-19-2012 11:09 AM)MWD1001 Wrote:  UCF has had a steady and predictable schedule of results going back to 1985. Lose to just about every team from a conference considered stronger, beat just about every team from a weaker conference, and go .500 against teams in their conference. This has happened no matter what conference (MAC, C-USA) or division (DII, D1-AA, D1-Indy) they've been in for the past 27 years. Unfortunately, since the Big East has been watered down somewhat I fully expect this trend to continue. The NCAA is now down to 5 power conferences, and UCF will likely lose 95% of the time to Big 12, Big 10, PAC-12, ACC and SEC schools, while going .500 in-conference, and winning majority of games against MAC, C-USA, and other lower tier conferences. Easy betting if you're a gambling man.

You could make this same post about Penn State, or FSU, or pretty close to any school for that matter.

There are very few Alabama's (on one end) and UAB's (on the other end) that just consistently win or lose. Most programs go in cycles, that over the course of 15-20 years look just like how you described UCF. This could be the year we lose all our OOC games against AQ opponents, drop a non-AQ OOC game, and lose 75% of our conference games. We could also win most of our OOC games and win our conference.

My guess for this year is 11-3 give or take 2 win (yes, I believe at worst this team gets 9 wins this year).

An 11 win season would be a nice surprise, but honestly would not shock me. But how can you see 9 wins as the worst case scenario?

I feel like there are so many moving pieces that this team could be our best or the same as last year. We have big question marks in a number of different areas. None of these are impossible to fix and I don't see any gaping holes on the team, but 9 wins seems like an optimistic worst case scenario.
06-19-2012 08:33 PM
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SublimeKnight Offline
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Post: #15
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
I base my prediction as much on the state of CUSA as I do the state of UCF.
06-19-2012 09:19 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #16
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
I am going to be a homer and say they will go 10-2, a loss to Missourri and Tulsa. This all depends on how much preessure the defense can put on the offense up front. I thought they did a poor job last year pressuring the quarterback, SMU was a great example, and Tulsa showed that they could dominate the d line by running it up the gut towards the end of the game (at home at that). The offense should be much more consistent with the talent in the backfield and the returning starters on the offensive line. Just alittle over a month to find out. I can't wait.
06-19-2012 10:59 PM
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knighthead1 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
If lose 6 games by 7 points or less again this year, well idk what I'm gonna do but I will sure be p'd off.
06-19-2012 11:10 PM
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MWD1001 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
(06-19-2012 10:59 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  I am going to be a homer and say they will go 10-2, a loss to Missourri and Tulsa. This all depends on how much preessure the defense can put on the offense up front. I thought they did a poor job last year pressuring the quarterback, SMU was a great example, and Tulsa showed that they could dominate the d line by running it up the gut towards the end of the game (at home at that). The offense should be much more consistent with the talent in the backfield and the returning starters on the offensive line. Just alittle over a month to find out. I can't wait.

You really think UCF is going to win at Ohio State in Columbus?
06-20-2012 12:03 PM
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SublimeKnight Offline
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Post: #19
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
Phil Steele seems to like UCFs chances too

"That means in the last 6 years the team that I have predicated as my Top non-AQ school in ALL SIX years has finished as the best non-AQ team with FIVE of them making BCS bowls!

This year I'm going for SEVEN IN A ROW, my call is for the UCF Knights to go unbeaten in CUSA play and be the top non-AQ team in the country this year as they are my Most Improved Team!"
06-20-2012 01:14 PM
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jaredf29 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: What will UCFs record be this Fall?
Either Phil Steele hasn't done his research or isn't familiar with UCF, either way I'm not buying what he's selling.
06-20-2012 01:58 PM
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