TripleA
Legend
Posts: 58,468
Joined: Jun 2008
Reputation: 3156
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: The woods of Bammer
|
RE: McMurphy/Big XII AD/Big XII committed to 10..expansion tabled for near future...
(05-30-2012 08:03 PM)Maize Wrote: (05-30-2012 07:46 PM)TripleA Wrote: (05-30-2012 07:39 PM)Maize Wrote: (05-30-2012 07:28 PM)TripleA Wrote: Every single ACC school involved in this drama has said publicly that they haven't had talks with the B12, and the B12 has made it quite clear that they haven't talked to any ACC schools. And now the old B12 commish, the new B12 commish, and the Texas and OU ADs have all said they are good at 10, unless ND calls.
Yeah, FSU has some fans and alumni pining, and Clemson's board said they would listen to any overtures, but ain't nobody calling yet. I think anything is possible going forward, but right now, it's starting to look like the status quo is going to win the day. Bad news for Louisville, unless Swofford comes raiding again, right after saying he would hope the ACC could hold together against any raids on them, lol.
IF we all hold together until the TV deal is done, this could be pretty good. Having been there ourselves in C-USA, I understand what Louisville fans are going through. We'll just have to see how it comes out. Could all be subterfuge before the storm, but that's a lot of subterfuge. I have the 0impression the B12 is going to give it a year or two at 10, before they look at doing anything different. JMO.
The only things I really know are that Texas is happier at 10 than expanding with anybody but ND, which they have been public about, and that the SEC is not planning to go after any ACC teams, unless other conferences raid the ACC first.
I said it many times...I would love to go to the Big XII but am happy with the BIG EAST.
My main concerns are just two...TV Media Rights deal-(must be in the same ballpark as the ACC)...for myself minimum of $15 Million per All Sports Members-(especially if everyone stay together and either BYU/AFA added) and a good Bowl for our Champion-(Fiesta Bowl/Orange Bowl/Cotton Bowl/Outback Bowl)...good NYD Bowl with very good payout $$$$.
At $15M per school, all sports, I think you're going to fall short. The last ESPN offer was something between $11-14M per school, depending on which media outlet you want to believe. And now we have 14 FB and 18 BB schools, vs. 9 and 16. And hurt by the ones who left, from a TV contract standpoint.
Also, it is unlikely we will get a Fiesta/Orange/Cotton tie-in. We didn't have one before. Have no clue about the Outback. Of course, maybe FedEx can help somewhere with sponsorship, but I have no idea, for certain.
I just think your expectations are unrealistic, given the current situation. I would love to be wrong, of course.
According to the ESPN Blog as of today the ESPN deal was worth roughly around $13 Million Per All Sports Members.
David Carter, executive director of the Sports Business Institute at the University of Southern California said this in this article that came out yesterday and he is the pessimist:
So from where Carter sits in Pac-12 country, the Big East might be hard-pressed to secure a TV deal that matches, say, the ACC's deal with ESPN. But if more than one outlet is bidding, the Big East can certainly match or exceed the deal it bypassed last year.
And here is the optimist...But New York-based sports media consultant Lee Berke:
"As tempting as it may have been, the marketplace has only gotten hotter in the interim," Berke said. "There are only a relatively fixed number of major college and professional sports out there, but there is an increasing number of potential outlets bidding for those properties. ... Honestly, I think there they are going to do substantially better. They've added some strong up-and-coming football schools in strong markets throughout the country. I think that's going to pay off for them, with the caveat that they remain stable."
Berke, who has worked with many college and professional teams and assisted the Yankees in launching the YES Network, has a more optimistic view for the Big East. He said that the Big East can ultimately fetch a rights fee in the range of the ACC's $3.6 billion deal, but only if the conference remains intact by the fall.
There are only so many major college conferences in the mix and only so many professional sports leagues available to offer programming, Berke said.
"That's a big advantage of the Big East," Berke said. "If you are a television distributor for college sports, you have relatively few options. So no matter how you want to configure these schools, there's still major programs and there's a relatively fixed amount of them. And you have more and more distributors and media platforms. It's a matter of demand"
http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf...c6c85f4ea4
Yeah, it could go low or high. No way to tell. I tend to believe it's going to be better than most of us think. I'm just not willing to peg a number to it, and then be disappointed if we don't hit the mark.
Matching the per school deal from ESPN's last offer would be a big achievement, considering we increased the number of FB schools by 55% (from 9 to 14), and the BB schools by 13% (from 16 to 18). And lost 'Cuse, Pitt and WVU.
Matching the ACC number of $17M per school seems unrealistic. JMO, but you never know.
|
|