(05-19-2012 01:50 AM)JustAnotherName Wrote: (05-18-2012 10:55 PM)HtownOrange Wrote: Catdaddy, the votes are not there for the four conferences to do anything. They still need at least a fifth conference and even then the margin is close. Plus, they have to resolve the Notre Dame (and BYU) issue. As mentioned above, the game is essentially moving the the Cotton Bowl to match the #2 teams in each conference, using your presumption that each will have a team in the playoffs. If the SEC gets their way, they would be sending their third team to this game. Basically, this is just a means of getting a permanent Bowl game with the impact of the Rose Bowl, a tool to use against other conferences to bully their way. Except that the B1G and Pac 12 already have their bowl.
Currently there are 120 BCS level teams with two definitely joining and several more contemplating the jump. There are a combined 48 teams in the Pac 12, B1G, Big 12 and SEC. 48 teams cannot outvote the remainder. Assuming the ACC and Notre Dame are included, the vote count goes to 63 teams. 63 teams is too slim of a margin to fully control everything. It only takes 1 party to get the congress involved in declaring a monopoly or to schedule hearings and such. Why do you think the Big East was included in the original BCS? Some good schools, but mainly to ensure they had far more votes than needed, and obvious majority, almost a super majority (68 teams - all 6 AQ, ND, Army and Navy) of about 112 teams at the time the BCS was established.
Besides, if the info coming out is true, FSU has nearly maximized their 3rd tier rights and adding a OOC Cupcake game will not bring that much more to the deal. I read they get $6MM+. Then there is the other issue of what the ACC is really getting. It is indicated that the ACC schools are really getting around $19MM. Compared to the Pac 12, who have no media rights, FSU would be +$4MM or $5MM ahead of them. The Big 12 deal is rumored to be about $20MM, so FSU would be moving for a possible $1MM, which would be more than eaten up by travel.
You know this is incorrect. You are adding bowl and NCAAT money to the ACC's total but not any other conferences'. You are also not including any bump in revenue for the Big 12 from the $20M base from adding FSU and a potential CG. The Pac 12 may not have those rights but the SEC and Big 12 do. The Pac 12 also has its own network while the ACC does not. I don't see this claim of yours having any real bearing on the issue. Also, FSU may only make $1M on additional tier 3 content. It may make more. None of us here on this board know at this point. There's also the rumor that the Big 12 helps subsidize some travel costs, and the fact that you have no idea how much travel costs would actually be. As has been stated before, the ACC is not a bus-league for FSU.
You also have no idea if the votes are there or not. What if the "big 4" conferences promise C-USA, MWC, SBC, MAC, etc much more money from a new playoff format that excludes them than they would receive from one that includes them? What if the big 4 just split off from the NCAA due to resistance from the ACC, Big East and other conferences and now those schools no longer received any money and still had no shot at a national title? Maybe I'm wrong but it's hard to imagine the smaller conferences siding with the ACC on ANYTHING. Not only does the ACC not command any power but the ACC is the biggest reason these smaller conferences have had such drastic membership changes the last decade.
1) There will be no "bump" in the Big 12 money for adding 1 team or 20. If there was, the deal would be signed and as many teams as possible would be added immediately. Not sure why you can't figure that one out for your self, but let's do some math: Big 12 deal is estimated at $20MM (not verified and it may be total payout of bowls and NCAAT, like the Pac 12 deal - it is hard to believe the Big 12 will get $5MM-$6MM more than the Pac 12). The WVU rumor is a bump of $2MM per team added. Using 16 teams as the new super conference, the Big 12 would then add 6 teams, or $12MM, thus by adding any 6 teams, they would jump to $32MM. ASSESSMENT: There is no proof of such an agreement; ESPN/FOX would not allow anyone to simply give themselves a raise like that; the deal calls for an increase for each team added to meet the same level - if FSU is added, ESPN/Fox will add enough to give them the same as every other team. Same with Clemson, Miami, VATech, NCState, and Toledo. I'm pretty confident that the Big 12 also has to "clear: any new teams with ESPN and Fox before inviting the team, the networks are NOT relinquishing any control to the conference, even if Texas is in the conference.
2) You nor I have access to the actual agreements. We can only speculate. You are free to believe what you want, but based on what you believe (adding FSU will increase the Big 12 deal by $2MM/team, adding Clemson will add another $2MM/team), I'm on safer ground. Essentially, you are saying that the same network that stole all of the ACC rights and pays pittance, just fell victim to UT and now are subservient to UT. Put the crack pipe down, stay away from the crack pipe!
3) Texas is a hot property, but you fail to realize, it is the only property holding the Big 12 together. If Texas leaves for any reason, the Big 12 will either dissolve (assuming Texas takes a few friends with them) or Texas will simply buy back their rights (negotiation/lawsuit) which will be far less that the 13 year deal on assignment of rights. The Big 12 deal is worth far less without Texas, even if you add in FSU and Clemson and Miami. ESPN and Fox know this and most likely have it written in the deal.
4) Regarding votes: you still have to have a majority. If the lesser schools are not compensated sufficiently, then they will not vote with the 4 "Super Conferences". The numbers have to be sufficiently lopsided to keep the government and courts out of the whole situation. If you think that 48 schools out votes the remaining 72+ schools, then have at it.
5) The Split: I love this argument, "the serious football schools are going to split from the NCAA and take all the money." First, this is actually more of a basketball issue than football, remember the BCS level football is NOT under the NCAA control, so this argument is a red herring. In hoops, they would get back a lot of money ASSUMING they could get a good TV deal. The problem is that there are many good hoops schools not playing BCS football so the TV deal is already diminished. Second: Even if a split occurred, you have to have losers. sports is a Zero-Sum-Game, winners and losers MUST Equal. Many of the so called Power Teams will become losers. No power team wants to lose prestige. If there is a split, they will not be allowed to play the teams they leave behind (maybe count 1 game/season as we do with FCS currently). Name the power teams that are willing to become the perpetual losers so Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, LSU, Texas, USC can have all the glory? All of these schools need the lesser conferences whether they like it or not, they need victims or they stand the chance of becoming the victims.
6) Big 12 subsidizes travel: A non-issue if there ever was one. Assuming that the Conference pays travel is well and good, but the TV deal is still the same size. It does not matter whether each team pays into a pool for travel or each team pays their own way, either way travel must be paid. The TV deal is not going to include the travel. Assuming $20MM is the number and the average travel cost is $3MM/team, you still only will receive $17MM as opposed to getting $20MM and then paying your own travel. ESPN and Fox will not be writing an expense check on top of the deal. (I picked #s for math's sake, I have no insight into actual travel costs. If you have the actual costs, plug that number in, it works just the same).
7) It has been reported that FSU makes $6MM-$7MM in their third tier rights. This includes signage, coaches shows, etc. The only thing you would be adding is a body bag football game and a few tune up games in hoops, especially if FSU keeps winning in hoops. These few games will not be worth a network nor will they increase greatly the current deal.
8) You allege that my number for the ACC includes bowls and hoops, neither of us know whether that is true. The Big 12 payout is reportedly $20MM/team. You have no proof that bowls and hoops is NOT included in that deal.
9) You still lack any reasoning for ESPN to make a deal with the ACC which provides more live programming for ESPN than ANY other source to not take an interest in protecting it, actually willingly participate in destroying it, to affect a property it already has rights to. ESPN has two properties, let's see, destroy one completely to maybe help the other. Get passed that logic and you may have a winner.
All anyone is saying is chill out. Wait until you have real facts. We all know the guys at the top are working with real numbers and not the internet buzz numbers. If it is really worth FSU's trouble, they will move. If not, they stay. You simply believe everything on the net that you want to believe and what you don't want to believe is a complete fabricated lie. Get off your high horse and sit back, think on everything. The guys at the top most certainly are. They are considering things we do not know about. Nobody makes these decisions without some very serious due diligence and very high level discussions with the players.
Also, the the people involved are usually sworn to secrecy and will lose their jobs if they disclose things without permission. Most of the "I gotta source" stuff is a drinking buddy speculating. It does not mean that the speculation is wrong, but it does not mean it is right, either.
Coming from...yinz?
