After the 4/16 setup, a decline will start....and schools will look for regional conferences again.....

I will add, the "haves" will all have own tv deals with ESPN, CBS, Fox, or NBC by then to help the revenue stream and be able to fall back to regional conferences.....


http://uoflcardgame.com/no-end-in-sight-...ame/31165/

(05-10-2012 09:12 AM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  After the 4/16 setup, a decline will start....and schools will look for regional conferences again.....

I will add, the "haves" will all have own tv deals with ESPN, CBS, Fox, or NBC by then to help the revenue stream and be able to fall back to regional conferences.....


http://uoflcardgame.com/no-end-in-sight-...ame/31165/

I've made that predictions as well...

How can there be 4 16 school superconferences if the Pac 12 & Big 12 aren't going anywhere? The Pac has nobody to add.

I also doubt 4x16 will ever happen. The real world is just a little too messy for things to coalesce into such a tidy package.

Totally agree. The neat and tidy 4/16 deal will never happen. They can't even agree on how to structure a simple four team playoff and they are going to manage to cobble together a 64 team coalition? Ha, I don't think so.

4x18 is my guess. Essentially 8 conferences of 9 teams each. 1st round of playoffs is the conference championship. The four team playoff to follow.

(05-10-2012 10:07 AM)72Tiger Wrote:  4x18 is my guess. Essentially 8 conferences of 9 teams each. 1st round of playoffs is the conference championship. The four team playoff to follow.

Could happen. In that case though somewhat regional superconferences might form as would be the case for the SEC, ACC and Big Ten. The Big 12/Pac-12 agglomeration on the other hand.

However, I maintain we're headed towards 5 12 to 14 school (super)conferences.

ACC is at 14
SEC is at 14
Big 12 will add 2 to 4 more (BYU, Louisville, UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, USF are the pool to choose from)
Pac 12 will stay put
Big Ten will stay put

That being said I think eventually something more regional develops.

I don't think we will ever get to have these 4X16 leagues. For the Mega-Conferences to ever come to fruition, leagues will have to get over biases of certain schools based on historical success, academics, religious affiliations, etc. What's more, with the death of the AQ, why would anyone want to make their conference "harder" than it already is by inviting cream of the crop teams from other leagues? For example, why would USC and Oregon want the Texahoma schools in their conference when they can beat up on WSU and Oregon State? Why would the Texahoma schools want to leave their situation to play other big dogs.

(05-10-2012 10:14 AM)brista21 Wrote:  

(05-10-2012 10:07 AM)72Tiger Wrote:  4x18 is my guess. Essentially 8 conferences of 9 teams each. 1st round of playoffs is the conference championship. The four team playoff to follow.

Could happen. In that case though somewhat regional superconferences might form as would be the case for the SEC, ACC and Big Ten. The Big 12/Pac-12 agglomeration on the other hand.

However, I maintain we're headed towards 5 12 to 14 school (super)conferences.

ACC is at 14
SEC is at 14
Big 12 will add 2 to 4 more (BYU, Louisville, UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, USF are the pool to choose from)
Pac 12 will stay put
Big Ten will stay put

That being said I think eventually something more regional develops.

Kinda how I see things as well... Personally I love how clean 4-16 looks, but there aren't enough FA's out there to make it possible. Say FSU does go to the Big XII, I could never see Texoma going to the PAC to make that league a 16 team league.

I agree with the others that 4/16 is too tidy but can never work in the real world. There is geographic overlap between B10 & ACC, SEC & ACC, B10 & B12, SEC & B12. We've seen how difficult it is for presidents and networks to all get on the same page.

4/16, 18, 20.... is a pipe dream for the major conferences but it's a fun topic for bloggers to talk about because it generates hits. There's just way too many conflicting interests for it to work. I could actually see it possibly going in the other direction.....to 9 team conferences. I've always thought 9 was the perfect number because you can have a round robin in hoops, best record in football, no football conference championship for anyone. 9 seems like it would work better now that we're headed towards a football playoff.

(05-10-2012 10:14 AM)brista21 Wrote:  

(05-10-2012 10:07 AM)72Tiger Wrote:  4x18 is my guess. Essentially 8 conferences of 9 teams each. 1st round of playoffs is the conference championship. The four team playoff to follow.

Could happen. In that case though somewhat regional superconferences might form as would be the case for the SEC, ACC and Big Ten. The Big 12/Pac-12 agglomeration on the other hand.

However, I maintain we're headed towards 5 12 to 14 school (super)conferences.

ACC is at 14
SEC is at 14
Big 12 will add 2 to 4 more (BYU, Louisville, UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, USF are the pool to choose from)
Pac 12 will stay put
Big Ten will stay put

That being said I think eventually something more regional develops.

I don't know about a reversion to more regional setups, but otherwise I agree.

The Pac has nothing left of value to add that makes any geographic sense. They and the B1G already have a relationship, and I can see them building more of an alliance in the future that could be very lucrative. Having an equal number of teams makes that more feasible from a logistical standpoint.

The SEC is strong enough now as it is. They don't need to expand, and I think that current mid-level teams would be skeptical of adding more competition.

The ACC is imperfect, but there's a certain level of core cohesion among older members, and geographic cohesion to the overall group. It's also a strong group academically.

The Big 12 is the best of what's left - once they make any additional moves, there's not going to be anything left for them to pick up. If they can bridge the geography from the conference core to WVU, that can help stabilize things for a long time.

I believe in a simple brain exercise when looking at the leagues.

Works like this. If ten years from now the media economy undergoes dramatic change and television revenue fell 75%, what would each conference look like?

I don't think the Big 10 looks any different. I don't think Pac-12 looks different. Not sure how plugged in TAMU and Mizzou would be but doubt anyone else goes anywhere. Big XII and West Virginia probably part ways but the rest would stick together. The old ACC probably stays in place. Near additions Florida State, Miami, Va.Tech probably stay in place. Pitt, Syracuse, BC... don't know. Big East, Boise and SDSU probably don't have a reason to be there, holding Houston, SMU, and Memphis in, I don't know, but Memphis far more likely to stay because of Louisville and Cincinnati. Difficult to see Big East overall sticking together. Boise and SDSU probably in the MWC. Just looks like a general mess for Big East, CUSA, and Sun Belt breaking up and reforming into something very different into some sort seaboard, southern, and south/southwestern leagues.

(05-10-2012 09:48 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  How can there be 4 16 school superconferences if the Pac 12 & Big 12 aren't going anywhere? The Pac has nobody to add.

Not that it is going to happen but it almost has twice.....

UT, OU, Plus 2 to the Pac-12. The Big-12 either expands to 12-16 with the remaining schools or folds.

Either way I like our (Houston) chances. In order of likelihood should UT, OU, Plus 2 leave....

1A. Big 12 adds 8 schools from the Big East and or BYU. Having lost UT and A&M Houston would be on the short list with only Baylor and TCU still in the fold.

1B. Big East absorbs the Big 12 leftovers after 2 Big East schools (UConn, and Rutgers/ND) go to the ACC. Which in turn could cause a split from the BB schools. Though bringing in Baylor, Kansas, and Kansas St. is nothing to laugh at.

In either case if the Pac-12 were to expand one of the leagues between the Big 12 and the Big East would cease to exist as a FB conference.

Not going to happen but the past couple of years have proven stranger things have and can happen.