Here are my thoughts on the dominoes that may fall in the next few months. Discuss...
========================================

*Louisville and BYU are in talks with the B12. The B12 wants to make a much bigger splash than just announcing this. Something to really get the TV deal and the league in the forefront of CFB.

*BE is now moving ever closer to a split with the possible serious talk of the loss of UofL

*ND, seeing a split coming closer, again looks to the ACC, but is told yet again full membership only. Ditto Big Ten. The Big 12 in serious talks with ND agrees to take ND as member in all-sports but FB, as long as they play a guaranteed partial schedule of 3-4 games per year for TV matchups. This will help increase Big 12 TV pkg even more. ND will still have their HOME game NBC pkg and it will be BIG, BIG, BIG for them. They will keep INDY at any cost. This will also help ND have a higher SOS (playing Texas, Oklahoma, Florida St, etc.), helping them toward that top 4 ranking.

*Big 12 with UofL, BYU and ND in the fold behind closed doors, is in serious talks with FSU & Clemson. They not only can make a few more million in the B12, but now will have the chance to make more than that with a CCG, even more with ND inclusion in the contract and huge upswing in their SOS, making it easier to get into the top 4 at seasons end. <--- the real reason they go. It will also provide better home games than their current schedule.

*B12 announces ground-breaking additions of UofL, BYU, Florida St, Clemson and partial member ND. Solidifying them easily as one of the top 4 leagues in the country.

*ACC is now back down to 12 teams. UConn is screaming for inclusion, but they won't take only 1 team. Rutgers wants the Big Ten as a first choice, but without ND, the Big Ten will stand pat at 12, as adding Rutgers or UConn will not be in their best financial or fan interest.

*ACC invites UConn and Rutgers to get back to 14.

*Remaining Big East basketball schools choose to now split from the FB schools with the loss of UofL, ND, UConn, and Rutgers from the league. They combine with several A-10 schools in some form or another in a league more in line with what their core values are. Whether they keep the BE name or not, I don't know. As founding members, they should have that choice, but the FB schools may offer a monetary buy-out of the name to keep it for Football recognition.

*Boise St and SDSU choose to exercise their opt out of the BE contract and return to the MWC. Boise chooses to do this due to loss of stability of the league, loss of AQ, far less money than they were promised in the TV contract ... and SDSU follows suit. Unlike CUSA, the MWC is waiting to get them back.

*The PAC-12 will not be expanding past 12 without a major coup like Texas, which will not happen anytime soon.

*Big East (or whatever new name this may take on) will reload with top teams available. The left over schools will not be joining back with CUSA after the recent additions.

*So the it will be: SEC (14), Big Ten (12), PAC-12 (12), Big 14 (14+ND/partial member) as the De facto top 4 leagues, with the ACC (14) right behind them as a lagging behind 5th. These top 5 leagues will get most of the Sat afternoon and primetime TV slots on the various networks they are in contracts with.

*Below the top 5 leagues, at an interchangable 6 & 7, will be the Big East (14) as an Eastern-Central based league and the MWC (14) as a Central-Western based league. They will be separate leagues but will possibly work as a pair in getting FB TV package put together so they can take full advantage of the multiple time zones, major media markets, etc. They will make a play for staying with ESPN (best exposure, since CBS Sports and NBC Sports have not really helped the MWC and CUSA at all), and will play double-header Thurs & Friday games, utilizing ESPN2 and ESPNU, and will play Noon ESPN regional games and have several late late games televised due to the pacific time zone teams. Working as a pair in this regard will get the biggest TV pkg possible and will keep the conferences and divisions regional enough for travel expenses. These two leagues (along with the ACC) have a slim shot at making the top 4 playoff, but would have to schedule WAY up on all of their OOC games and run the table to get a shot, but it is still possible in these leagues. No more Boise playing 1 middle-of-the-pack SEC squad and making the top 5. You should have to have a high SOS to make the 4+1 playoff. That goes for everyone. Each school can schedule how they want to in OOC, if that is their goal.

The 2 leagues may look like this:

Big East Conference
====================
Coastal------------Gulf

1-UMass-----------SMU
2-Temple----------Memphis
3-Army------------Houston
4-Navy------------Tulane
5-Marshall---------Cincinnati
6-East Carolina----Southern Miss
7-UCF-------------USF

Mountain West Conference
====================
SouthWest--------Mountain

1-UTEP-----------Boise St
2-New Mexico-----Air Force
3-UNLV-----------Wyoming
4-San Diego St----Colorado St
5-Rice------------Utah State
6-Nevada---------Fresno St
7-Hawai'i---------San Jose St

*CUSA, MAC, SunBelt will live on playing mid-week games for TV exposure. Several top FCS schools will move up into these leagues (Appy, JMU, ODU, etc.)

===========
14 team leagues will have a schedule like this:

6 division games (3 home, 3 away)
1 cross-div rival game (home -or- away)
2 cross-division games (one home, one away...rotating)
3 OOC games
----
1 Conference Champ game
----
1 Bowl Game --OR-- 4+1 playoff
==================

Some of you guys want the big east to fail so badly. I do like your big east divisional names though.

Why in the world would the MWC want Rice? They would take them if they got SMU and Houston as well.
I think you are on the right track but I think the new Big East stays firm and everyone goes sports all in since they will most likely have 16 teams. (They would have to I would imagine for travel cost except for the 2 football only programs). They would be the only 2nd tier conference while the Sunbelt, MAC, MWC, and C-USA drop into The Twilight Zone.
East:
Temple
Cincinnati
UCF
Houston
East Carolina
Southern Miss
Navy (Football only)
USF

West:
San Diego State
Boise State
Fresno State
UNLV
Air Force (Football only)
Memphis
BYU (Or Tulane)
SMU

Not terrible but not great either. I really wanted New Mexico in the west for basketball but their football is so bad it will take years for them to fix that $hit.

(05-09-2012 07:42 PM)War Torn Ruston Wrote:  Why in the world would the MWC want Rice?

Baseball and brains.

We've got the Florida and California schools for Boobs already. haha.

In all seriousness tho, they were a SWC member and have old traditions. Better choice than Tulsa or UAB, IMO. Plus with Houston in the BE fold already, it will give a second Houston market for the MWC side. Plus UTEP want to play in Eastern Texas for sure. Ditto UNM I imagine.

I just think after all of this blows up, we'll see some type of high-mid-major between the top 5, and above the MAC, SunBelt, CUSA, and it will be based more regionally than not.

The beauty of the combined TV deal is you get all the upside of negotiations and money, without the downside of having to travel to the east coast all the time if you are a Boise or SDSU. It makes good financial sense. And would solidify these 2 leagues as just under the top 5.

The other route would be one bigger league stretching across the country (maybe 8-10 team divisions) where you never play the other division except in the champ game. I just don't see this as viable across all the non-revenue sports though, which is why I went with the 2 league model.

(05-09-2012 07:41 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  Some of you guys want the big east to fail so badly. I do like your big east divisional names though.

Yes, especially a Marshall fan, if Boise and SDSU do return to the MWC then that's very dangerous territory for Marshall. What if the Big East then grabs ECU and Southern Miss? IMHO, a much simpler and thus more likely scenario than above.

I don't want the BE to fail. I really love the BE actually.

Trying to present this as a CFB fan looking at all the smoke and fire happening around the country.

The Herd could as easily be excluded as it could be included in this scenario for sure. I agree with that.

Personally, it would be tragic after losing the UCF rivalry, to lose ECU and USM as well.

Ruston, knowing far more about the rivalry dynamic out West, and using the 14 teams I have put in the MWC, how would you set up the cross-divisional rivals in that league?

Then, in your opinion, which team(s) would you drop or add if you had to go to 14? Then set up those divisions/rivals.

(05-09-2012 07:42 PM)War Torn Ruston Wrote:  Why in the world would the MWC want Rice? They would take them if they got SMU and Houston as well.
I think you are on the right track but I think the new Big East stays firm and everyone goes sports all in since they will most likely have 16 teams. (They would have to I would imagine for travel cost except for the 2 football only programs). They would be the only 2nd tier conference while the Sunbelt, MAC, MWC, and C-USA drop into The Twilight Zone.
East:
Temple
Cincinnati
UCF
Houston
East Carolina
Southern Miss
Navy (Football only)
USF

West:
San Diego State
Boise State
Fresno State
UNLV
Air Force (Football only)
Memphis
BYU (Or Tulane)
SMU

Not terrible but not great either. I really wanted New Mexico in the west for basketball but their football is so bad it will take years for them to fix that $hit.

Aside from switching a Memphis to the East and Houston to the West, that's a mighty tight football "first" conference worthy of BCS AQ status if it were still around, but a solid basketball conference to boot IMO. The TV revenue would probably rival anything the BE could hope to get as it is now, if not more. Aside from Navy and AF no hybrid.

Interesting and not altogether horrible.

That said, I don't think all that happens, and certainly not so soon, though. There's lots of rumors and some are nothing and some have a degree of plausibility, but I just don't think that much movement is going to happen to complete this cycle. I think we're actually pretty close and the SEC, ACC, B1G, PAC, and Big XII are set for now. The Big East needs one more western team (which I still think is going to be BYU), and then we'll see the MWC pick up NMSU and Idaho. Then that will be all for a while. The B1G will renegotiate their TV deal in a couple of years, and the ACC gets a look again in 5 years.

In your Mountain West?

Pacific Division / Mountain Division
Nevada VS UTEP- Because there is no other choice.
Hawaii VS Air Force- Big game in Hawaii with the military bases plus option VS pass happy offense is always fun.
Boise VS Tulsa - We have had a pretty good series with them and I would replace Rice with them. They are a favorite on the MWC boards.
Fresno VS Colorado State- New coaches who know each other starts a new rivalry
SDSU VS Wyoming- They hate each other for some reason
UNLV VS New Mexico- Big hoops rivalry. Plus it gives these turds at least one win in football.
San Jose State VS Utah State- they came together so....

(05-09-2012 08:14 PM)ECUPirated Wrote:  

(05-09-2012 07:42 PM)War Torn Ruston Wrote:  Why in the world would the MWC want Rice? They would take them if they got SMU and Houston as well.
I think you are on the right track but I think the new Big East stays firm and everyone goes sports all in since they will most likely have 16 teams. (They would have to I would imagine for travel cost except for the 2 football only programs). They would be the only 2nd tier conference while the Sunbelt, MAC, MWC, and C-USA drop into The Twilight Zone.
East:
Temple
Cincinnati
UCF
Houston
East Carolina
Southern Miss
Navy (Football only)
USF

West:
San Diego State
Boise State
Fresno State
UNLV
Air Force (Football only)
Memphis
BYU (Or Tulane)
SMU

Not terrible but not great either. I really wanted New Mexico in the west for basketball but their football is so bad it will take years for them to fix that $hit.

Aside from switching a Memphis to the East and Houston to the West, that's a mighty tight football "first" conference worthy of BCS AQ status if it were still around, but a solid basketball conference to boot IMO. The TV revenue would probably rival anything the BE could hope to get as it is now, if not more. Aside from Navy and AF no hybrid.

Yeah. You are right.

What is likely to happen, No one moves before 2014. BE adds 1 if all stay 2 or 3 if they lose a couple in 2014, BB schools stay where they are as does ND. BE signs a deal with NBC or other, that gives FB only aprox 7 mil, BB only aprox 3 mil, and All sports aprox 10 mil. CUSA and MWC build and end up making 1.5 to 2.5 mil. All go happily on their way until the next round of TV deals.

(05-09-2012 08:21 PM)War Torn Ruston Wrote:  In your Mountain West?

Pacific Division / Mountain Division
Nevada VS UTEP- Because there is no other choice.
Hawaii VS Air Force- Big game in Hawaii with the military bases plus option VS pass happy offense is always fun.
Boise VS Tulsa - We have had a pretty good series with them and I would replace Rice with them. They are a favorite on the MWC boards.
Fresno VS Colorado State- New coaches who know each other starts a new rivalry
SDSU VS Wyoming- They hate each other for some reason
UNLV VS New Mexico- Big hoops rivalry. Plus it gives these turds at least one win in football.
San Jose State VS Utah State- they came together so....

Good deal. Thanks man. Good info about Tulsa. Didn't even think about the Air Force base. Good stuff.

Would probably kill myself if all that stuff happened.

(05-09-2012 07:27 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  Here are my thoughts on the dominoes that may fall in the next few months. Discuss...
========================================

*Louisville and BYU are in talks with the B12. The B12 wants to make a much bigger splash than just announcing this. Something to really get the TV deal and the league in the forefront of CFB.

*BE is now moving ever closer to a split with the possible serious talk of the loss of UofL

*ND, seeing a split coming closer, again looks to the ACC, but is told yet again full membership only. Ditto Big Ten. The Big 12 in serious talks with ND agrees to take ND as member in all-sports but FB, as long as they play a guaranteed partial schedule of 3-4 games per year for TV matchups. This will help increase Big 12 TV pkg even more. ND will still have their HOME game NBC pkg and it will be BIG, BIG, BIG for them. They will keep INDY at any cost. This will also help ND have a higher SOS (playing Texas, Oklahoma, Florida St, etc.), helping them toward that top 4 ranking.

*Big 12 with UofL, BYU and ND in the fold behind closed doors, is in serious talks with FSU & Clemson. They not only can make a few more million in the B12, but now will have the chance to make more than that with a CCG, even more with ND inclusion in the contract and huge upswing in their SOS, making it easier to get into the top 4 at seasons end. <--- the real reason they go. It will also provide better home games than their current schedule.

*B12 announces ground-breaking additions of UofL, BYU, Florida St, Clemson and partial member ND. Solidifying them easily as one of the top 4 leagues in the country.

*ACC is now back down to 12 teams. UConn is screaming for inclusion, but they won't take only 1 team. Rutgers wants the Big Ten as a first choice, but without ND, the Big Ten will stand pat at 12, as adding Rutgers or UConn will not be in their best financial or fan interest.

*ACC invites UConn and Rutgers to get back to 14.

*Remaining Big East basketball schools choose to now split from the FB schools with the loss of UofL, ND, UConn, and Rutgers from the league. They combine with several A-10 schools in some form or another in a league more in line with what their core values are. Whether they keep the BE name or not, I don't know. As founding members, they should have that choice, but the FB schools may offer a monetary buy-out of the name to keep it for Football recognition.

*Boise St and SDSU choose to exercise their opt out of the BE contract and return to the MWC. Boise chooses to do this due to loss of stability of the league, loss of AQ, far less money than they were promised in the TV contract ... and SDSU follows suit. Unlike CUSA, the MWC is waiting to get them back.

*The PAC-12 will not be expanding past 12 without a major coup like Texas, which will not happen anytime soon.

*Big East (or whatever new name this may take on) will reload with top teams available. The left over schools will not be joining back with CUSA after the recent additions.

*So the it will be: SEC (14), Big Ten (12), PAC-12 (12), Big 14 (14+ND/partial member) as the De facto top 4 leagues, with the ACC (14) right behind them as a lagging behind 5th. These top 5 leagues will get most of the Sat afternoon and primetime TV slots on the various networks they are in contracts with.

*Below the top 5 leagues, at an interchangable 6 & 7, will be the Big East (14) as an Eastern-Central based league and the MWC (14) as a Central-Western based league. They will be separate leagues but will possibly work as a pair in getting FB TV package put together so they can take full advantage of the multiple time zones, major media markets, etc. They will make a play for staying with ESPN (best exposure, since CBS Sports and NBC Sports have not really helped the MWC and CUSA at all), and will play double-header Thurs & Friday games, utilizing ESPN2 and ESPNU, and will play Noon ESPN regional games and have several late late games televised due to the pacific time zone teams. Working as a pair in this regard will get the biggest TV pkg possible and will keep the conferences and divisions regional enough for travel expenses. These two leagues (along with the ACC) have a slim shot at making the top 4 playoff, but would have to schedule WAY up on all of their OOC games and run the table to get a shot, but it is still possible in these leagues. No more Boise playing 1 middle-of-the-pack SEC squad and making the top 5. You should have to have a high SOS to make the 4+1 playoff. That goes for everyone. Each school can schedule how they want to in OOC, if that is their goal.

The 2 leagues may look like this:

Big East Conference
====================
Coastal------------Gulf

1-UMass-----------SMU
2-Temple----------Memphis
3-Army------------Houston
4-Navy------------Tulane
5-Marshall---------Cincinnati
6-East Carolina----Southern Miss
7-UCF-------------USF

Mountain West Conference
====================
SouthWest--------Mountain

1-UTEP-----------Boise St
2-New Mexico-----Air Force
3-UNLV-----------Wyoming
4-San Diego St----Colorado St
5-Rice------------Utah State
6-Nevada---------Fresno St
7-Hawai'i---------San Jose St

*CUSA, MAC, SunBelt will live on playing mid-week games for TV exposure. Several top FCS schools will move up into these leagues (Appy, JMU, ODU, etc.)

===========
14 team leagues will have a schedule like this:

6 division games (3 home, 3 away)
1 cross-div rival game (home -or- away)
2 cross-division games (one home, one away...rotating)
3 OOC games
----
1 Conference Champ game
----
1 Bowl Game --OR-- 4+1 playoff
==================

Why do people insist on making sweeping generalizations and "predictions" when most of this stuff is hyperbole and never comes close to reality?

highly improbable, but highly entertaining thread

(05-09-2012 10:11 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  highly improbable, but highly entertaining thread

Highly improbable? Absolutely. Highly entertaining? I don't know. It gave me a headache.

I quit reading when I saw FSU and BYU to the Big 12 together.