What should have happened, if the BE was proactive after the initial losses:

West Conf, all-sports but football:
BYU
SDSU
BSU
Houston
SMU
Memphis
Air Force
UNLV

BE

8 Bball schools
UConn
UC
UL
Rutgers
USF
Temple

BE Football

East

UConn
UC
UL
Rutgers
USF
Temple
Memphis

West

BYU
SDSU
BSU
Houston
SMU
Air Force
UNLV

Each side needs the other. Together, they are worth more than if they separate. There is a new TV contact negotiation coming up. It would be suicide to split.

The BE name, Madison Square Garden and the basketball credits belong to the Big East. If the football schools leave, they lose that.

I don't see a split happening.

Don't know which way they will go now, but it's time to rethink the whole thing and have a long range plan, rather than just reacting or overreacting to whatever happened last week.

(05-08-2012 11:46 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Each side needs the other. Together, they are worth more than if they separate. There is a new TV contact negotiation coming up. It would be suicide to split.

The BE name, Madison Square Garden and the basketball credits belong to the Big East. If the football schools leave, they lose that.

I don't see a split happening.

Blunderbuss, read this. Exactly the reason they don't split. At this point with Pitt, Syracuse, and WVU all gone there is certainly less reason to split for the football schools.

(05-08-2012 11:46 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Each side needs the other. Together, they are worth more than if they separate. There is a new TV contact negotiation coming up. It would be suicide to split.

The BE name, Madison Square Garden and the basketball credits belong to the Big East. If the football schools leave, they lose that.

I don't see a split happening.

That's only if you look at the short term, Terry. If you'll look back with a historical perspective, it hasn't been a good long term decision for the football schools...

(05-08-2012 12:36 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(05-08-2012 11:46 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Each side needs the other. Together, they are worth more than if they separate. There is a new TV contact negotiation coming up. It would be suicide to split.

The BE name, Madison Square Garden and the basketball credits belong to the Big East. If the football schools leave, they lose that.

I don't see a split happening.

That's only if you look at the short term, Terry. If you'll look back with a historical perspective, it hasn't been a good long term decision for the football schools...

I am talking about CURRENT BE football schools, Bit.

SMU, Houston, Central Florida, Memphis, etc...

Are you so certain things will remain as they are for the next 20 years, Terry?

(05-08-2012 11:52 AM)mlb Wrote:  

(05-08-2012 11:46 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Each side needs the other. Together, they are worth more than if they separate. There is a new TV contact negotiation coming up. It would be suicide to split.

The BE name, Madison Square Garden and the basketball credits belong to the Big East. If the football schools leave, they lose that.

I don't see a split happening.

Blunderbuss, read this. Exactly the reason they don't split. At this point with Pitt, Syracuse, and WVU all gone there is certainly less reason to split for the football schools.

How many votes would be needed to dissolve the conference? In that case, basketball money would go to the schools that earned them.

In 2013, there will be more schools that play football than not.

(05-08-2012 11:46 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Each side needs the other. Together, they are worth more than if they separate. There is a new TV contact negotiation coming up. It would be suicide to split.

The BE name, Madison Square Garden and the basketball credits belong to the Big East. If the football schools leave, they lose that.

I don't see a split happening.

EXACTLY.

Too many people keep looking at this backwards. Basketball TV money is the VARIABLE here, NOT football TV money.

The Big East football league is going to get paid the same amount whether it's a split league or a hybrid league. NBC isn't paying a magical bonus for a 13/14-team Big East football package because it doesn't have the Catholic schools for basketball schools. Big East football is what it is regardless of the league structure.

So, just solely look at it from the basketball perspective because that's the TV rights number that changes depending upon whether there's a split or hybrid. Is that basketball TV package going to receive more on a per-school basis with all 18 schools than just the football schools? If the answer is yes, then you stay together. If the answer is no, then you split. The TV people keep saying over and over and over and over and over again is that when you're looking at basketball, the hybrid league is worth more on a per school basis.

Now, if you want to say that the Catholic schools are somehow stunting further growth of the football league and thereby endangering the rights fees of the league long-term, then that's a different story. However, there's simply no one from C-USA or the MWC that's a lynchpin where it's worth it to split. I think many people seriously underestimate the value of schools such as Georgetown, Villanova and St. John's and overestimate the value of schools just because they play football without regard to the institutions themselves.

The maxim that football TV money rules everything is only true IF you have the marquee names that have legit national drawing power. When you don't have those types of draws, the difference in rights fees between basketball and football really isn't that large of a gap. People watch Ohio State, Florida, USC, Texas and Notre Dame en masse, NOT just any random football team just because they play football (and the TV rights fees reflect that). That's the biggest misunderstanding that I've seen in conference realignment discussions over the past couple of years.

Hell, Bit. Nobody knows what will happen in 20 years.

For instance, the Big 12 grant of rights is only for 13......

If I had to predict, either the marquee schools will jettison the others and form new conferences or the TV money will be saturated and dry up, resulting in smaller, regional conferences.

Either way, I will be dead or 74, almost 75 in 20 years and will not likely give a damn either way.....

But if you're into long term planning, the time to plan for 20 from now is the present...

(05-08-2012 11:41 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  Ok, fair enough. Here's another question if the football schools are so great on their own, why don't THEY leave?

I wondered that myself. There were 2 obvious issues-NCAA credits and AQ status. AQ status of a new conference is no longer relevant. TV value would be the 3rd issue.

Now, minus SU, Pitt and WVU, they are still good in basketball, but not where they were with them.

It may be that TV value is much better together, but I have trouble seeing why.

If all the football schools would have agree to split away, it would have worked fine. But Miami, Syracuse, and BC had no interest in that...

(05-08-2012 01:39 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  But if you're into long term planning, the time to plan for 20 from now is the present...

Then you better lock up the Longhorns right now for 20 years and not just 13....

Re: OP

Even if you disregard the MSG contract and the naming rights (Big East is still THE brand name in basketball), there's little reason to split at this point.

Here's the Point of View for each type of school:

ND: The sheer size and national reach of the conference is ideal for us. UL, UC, Rutgers, and UConn's non-revenue athletic programs gives us some legit opponents in minor sports. No reason to split, in fact, this conference is arguably better for us than the previous version of the BE.

Other b-ball schools: we're falling over ourselves to be associated with Notre Dame. The A-10 on roids option *was* attractive primarily because of Temple and Xavier. Now we have Temple, and we'd much rather be with UC, UL, Memphis, and UConn than Xavier. Besides, we'll do whatever Notre Dame tells us to anyways.

Football schools: Basketball power is what makes us a legit power conference. Without Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Marquette, and ND, this is merely a good basketball conference. With them, it's still the best. Also, we love getting into the big markets for recruiting and alumni events. Besides, who else would we add to replace them? Anyone that would be *that* valuable in football has already been added.

That's the way it is for now. This formula gets tricky if schools start getting removed, particularly UL, UConn, and UC.

From UC's point of view, if UL and UConn leave, that's even more reason for us to stick with the hybrid than now. In that nightmare scenario, basketball will be all that matters.

While the BB only schools may be in a better financial situation today staying with the FB schools, (and I would agree that it seems they are) I wonder if they will feel the same way in a couple years when UL, Rutgers and UConn are gone?

At some point the BB schools will not be better off when the value of the football schools they find themselves partnered with lessen. For example the BB schools staying with Pitt, Cuse, UConn etc was a no brainer, however when all of those schools are gone, it becomes a much more difficult place for those BB only schools when they wake up to find all of the original schools gone and they are partnered with schools they have little to nothing in common with and who have significantly less value to networks.

The question is if they are better off biting the bullet now and grabbing Butler et al and taking a short term hit or staying in a potentially precarious situation and waking up one morning to a group of partners they don't want.

Don't know the answer but it seems to me a reasonable issue to be concerned with.

Whatever network or networks the Beast contracts with, will almost certainly have outs or different pay scales, lack of escalation or some other method to cover themselves as they will not be in a position to pay the Beast the same money with or without Louisville, Rutgers and UConn, etc.. The only way that contract doesn't diminish if some of the more valuable schools leave is if the diminution of value for that potential is already built into the original pricing.

The BB schools really do not have not good answer, they have been driven into a situation I'm sure they did not envision when they joined a league with Pitt, Cuse, BC etc and they find themselves much like the proverbial frog who swims around in a pot only to find himself in boiling water.

(05-08-2012 02:25 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-08-2012 01:39 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  But if you're into long term planning, the time to plan for 20 from now is the present...

Then you better lock up the Longhorns right now for 20 years and not just 13....

You need the first 13 to lay the foundation, Terry. Don't you know proper preparation takes time?

Lol, I am just messing with you, Bit.

The Big 12 looks reasonably stable and is a good place for WVU to land.

IMO we got here just in time too...

Thanks to all who replied.

Definitely a more complicated issue than at first glance. I appreciate all the feedback.


It will be an interesting couple years, while things get settled, and TV contracts are negotiated.




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