And the whole point of the alliance to begin with was so that neither conference would have to add FCS and Sun Belt teams. Based on Conference USA adding start up, Sun Belt, and a WAC team I'm inclined to believe the alliance is done for good. It also looks to me like the MWC used conference USA because I personally thought conference USA was in a position to raid the MWC and that's why they wanted the alliance.

Under the hypothetical situation the Big East fails because TV markets are not what networks want the same would happen to conference USA who added FIU, UNCC, ODU, and UTSA.

(05-07-2012 12:13 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  Except you are missing my second point which is that if the deal for the BE is so bad then the deal for CUSA will not be good either and will be going down. Your contract in that case will also be much lower. In this hypothetical situation you have all the western schools (most of which brought the big money on who left) going to the MWC (remember this was the hypothetical so they are NOT going to CUSA regardless if you think they would choose CUSA in the first place). If all those teams go to the MWC you better believe that they will have the advantage and we all know that the MWC will use that advantage if they have it.

I don't believe the BE TV deal will affect CUSA next TV deal. It's comparing apples to oranges. The BE TV deal was based off the conference having AQ status. With that status gone now, of course the BE TV deal is going to suffer. And if TV deals are all about markets, well CUSA actually enhanced it's TV markets swaping Orlando for Miami. We're still in the Houston and Dallas Market and could potentially add the Norfolk TV market.

Nope and no sir, the CUSA TV deal will not be affected by what happens to the BE at all. So UH, SMU, and whoever else are more than welcome to go to the MWC. CUSA has never been scared of them and never will.

(05-07-2012 12:25 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  And the whole point of the alliance to begin with was so that neither conference would have to add FCS and Sun Belt teams. Based on Conference USA adding start up, Sun Belt, and a WAC team I'm inclined to believe the alliance is done for good. It also looks to me like the MWC used conference USA because I personally thought conference USA was in a position to raid the MWC and that's why they wanted the alliance.

Under the hypothetical situation the Big East fails because TV markets are not what networks want the same would happen to conference USA who added FIU, UNCC, ODU, and UTSA.

The C-USA commissioner said this week that they were still working together. neither conference is in a position to raid the other, but still a lot more powerful than the sb or wac.

(05-07-2012 12:27 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 12:13 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  Except you are missing my second point which is that if the deal for the BE is so bad then the deal for CUSA will not be good either and will be going down. Your contract in that case will also be much lower. In this hypothetical situation you have all the western schools (most of which brought the big money on who left) going to the MWC (remember this was the hypothetical so they are NOT going to CUSA regardless if you think they would choose CUSA in the first place). If all those teams go to the MWC you better believe that they will have the advantage and we all know that the MWC will use that advantage if they have it.

I don't believe the BE TV deal will affect CUSA next TV deal. It's comparing apples to oranges. The BE TV deal was based off the conference having AQ status. With that status gone now, of course the BE TV deal is going to suffer. And if TV deals are all about markets, well CUSA actually enhanced it's TV markets swaping Orlando for Miami. We're still in the Houston and Dallas Market and could potentially add the Norfolk TV market.

Nope and no sir, the CUSA TV deal will not be affected by what happens to the BE at all. So UH, SMU, and whoever else are more than welcome to go to the MWC. CUSA has never been scared of them and never will.

I think the alliance not happening due to things like tournament credits is more than enough evidence to show that the contract is not going to be that good. If all those teams went to the Mountain West then their contract would rise a little. Yours go down theirs go up and look you are close enough that the money is no longer a big issue. Now you have one conference with a much better basketball league, a better football league, more prestige, and has a lot to offer any schools from CUSA.

If the credits were enough to derail this whole thing who do you think has better long term success in the NCAA tournament in basketball? My feeling is the MWC especially if they return some schools. CUSA has been diminishing quickly in that sport and it does not look to be getting better especially with no Memphis to save you.

(05-07-2012 12:25 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  And the whole point of the alliance to begin with was so that neither conference would have to add FCS and Sun Belt teams. Based on Conference USA adding start up, Sun Belt, and a WAC team I'm inclined to believe the alliance is done for good. It also looks to me like the MWC used conference USA because I personally thought conference USA was in a position to raid the MWC and that's why they wanted the alliance.

Under the hypothetical situation the Big East fails because TV markets are not what networks want the same would happen to conference USA who added FIU, UNCC, ODU, and UTSA.

I couldn't disagree more.

CUSA has added teams within their footprint for more geographic rivalries. Although we still stretch from Greenville, NC to El Paso, Tx, we stayed well within the footprint and created two very nice geographic divisions. We don't stretch from Florida to Connecticut, Idaho and California.

With the exception of Charlotte, most of the additions have healthy attendance. Not including Charlotte, when factoring in all the additions, the New CUSA suffers an 8% decline in attendance average as compared to a 21% decline for the nBe.

Louisiana Tech is good program and great regional rivalry for a large portion of the conference.

Charlotte and ODU, when paired with ECU and, to a lesser extent, Marshall, create a very nice regional pod that can collectively garner more market share for CUSA within the heart of the ACC.

ODU and Charlotte have good basketball tradition to help offset the loss of Memphis.

We retain our Florida presence with FIU. This is good for recruiting. They have huge upside potential! I think they are coming into the league ahead of where UCF was when they came in. They were a great addition.

Last, but not least, we retained or gained market presence in some nice markets.

I'm a firm believer that geographic proximity, attendance, fan base and willingness to travel are very valuable to a league. We did well with our expansion.

Do note however that the attendance issue is mostly due to CUSA teams in general don't have that high of attendance and so their numbers don't change as much (particularly on what was gained and lost from each conference). Heck there are only a couple of teams that would change the average much such as losing ECU.

Yes, I think CUSA & MWC jumped the gun. Today's Big East news only reinforces my opinion.

Well I'm not going to turn this into a pissing match because everyone is entitled to an opinion. Mine is still that conference USA should have waited because nothing good will come out what's happening to the Big East right now. If they lose teams you lose teams whether it's to the MWC or the Big 12.

You guys are kidding yourself if you think the MWC became your best friends over night and wouldn't pull one on you for your west teams if they can land Houston and SMU. Let's not forget just how the MWC was formed to begin with.

(05-07-2012 12:52 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  Do note however that the attendance issue is mostly due to CUSA teams in general don't have that high of attendance and so their numbers don't change as much (particularly on what was gained and lost from each conference). Heck there are only a couple of teams that would change the average much such as losing ECU.

Yes, but there is a direct correlation between conferences average attendance and their TV revenues per team. Graphically, it represents nearly a straight line.

There is very little correlation between the number of TV households per conference and their TV revenues per team.

The Big East averaged 43,766 per team last year in attendance. The nBe will average 34,565 based on 2011 numbers. That's a difference of 9,201.

CUSA averaged 26,509 last year. The new CUSA (not incl. Charlotte) averaged 24,699, a difference of only 1,810. I mistakingly said an 8% loss. It's really 6.8%. I feel Charlotte will have decent attendance when they get started; especially given the excitement surrounding the new team.

This would indicate that TV revenues for the nBe would suffer. They would still be more than CUSA; however, but not be as good as previously expected.

Another interesting note is that the ACC averaged 51,406 last year. The nBe would average 16,841 less than the ACC, but only 5,530 more than the MWC (before defections). Even with the defections of SDSU and Boise, the nBe will lie far closer to the former non-aq's than to the ACC, which represents the lowest of the top 5 conferences.

Bottom line:
If (Big If) The Big East basketball schools get what they want and The Big East football goes out the window, or if the Big 12 and ACC or whoever takes a few more schools. those remaining will need a place to go.
Louisville, Rutgers, and UConn are almost certainly going somewhere else. If Boise State had the academics they would already be in the PAC-12.
Houston, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Temple, USF, SDSU, Boise, Navy, and perhaps Cincinnati all will need a place to go.
C-USA is on 13 teams right now? 16 teams is pushing it but anymore would be overkill. Unless they form some kind of Alliance out east. Which they won't. The most C-USA could realistically take would be three teams. But will those teams really wanna be in a diluted conference? A smart move would be to follow Boise State if it is possible. Not to mention they have Nevada, Fresno, and Hawaii's resume and good basketball. I bet even Memphis would rather play basketball in the MWC. That is not really realistic but Memphis is a basketball school and they would rather play UNLV, New Mexico, Utah State, and SDSU than LA Tech, FIU, ECU, and Marshall. No offense but it is the truth.
We know Hair wants into Texas. If Houston and SMU said they would only come to the MWC if they can bring Rice and whoever the MWC would do it.
In other words 16 is probably the limit on how big conferences could get.

(05-07-2012 12:39 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  I think the alliance not happening due to things like tournament credits is more than enough evidence to show that the contract is not going to be that good.

I think some confuse the terminology.

Alliance ≠ Merger

I believe you were making reference to the reason why the Merger isn't happening right now. The Alliance is still very much alive.

(05-06-2012 06:15 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Why the hell would C-USA wait around for something that I wouldn't give more than a 5% chance of ever happening? That's how you end up dying as a league, waiting around too long at too small of a number. I'm not thrilled by the candidates, but who else were we going to invite, and the merger isn't a viable option. If we are staying separate we needed to get back to at least 12 by 2013. Now if you left the decision up to me I'd add the teams with the best history of winning and largest FB attendance whether FCS or FBS, but I'm not in charge of anything. Either way sitting at 8 wasn't a realistic option. If the BE actually did fall apart most likely some kind of new league would be formed with the leftovers and the schools they wanted to be with, not some kind of 18 team league.

Exactly. Nothing CUSA could do in this case. Waiting is what screwed over the Big East in the first place. On top of that, if the big east did explode, the remaining teams would just pick the best non-aq teams to partner with, leaving out garbage programs like Marshall, UAB, New Mexico St, Tulane, etc. etc. that have no business being Division 1.

(05-07-2012 01:46 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote:  

(05-06-2012 06:15 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Why the hell would C-USA wait around for something that I wouldn't give more than a 5% chance of ever happening? That's how you end up dying as a league, waiting around too long at too small of a number. I'm not thrilled by the candidates, but who else were we going to invite, and the merger isn't a viable option. If we are staying separate we needed to get back to at least 12 by 2013. Now if you left the decision up to me I'd add the teams with the best history of winning and largest FB attendance whether FCS or FBS, but I'm not in charge of anything. Either way sitting at 8 wasn't a realistic option. If the BE actually did fall apart most likely some kind of new league would be formed with the leftovers and the schools they wanted to be with, not some kind of 18 team league.

Exactly. Nothing CUSA could do in this case. Waiting is what screwed over the Big East in the first place. On top of that, if the big east did explode, the remaining teams would just pick the best non-aq teams to partner with, leaving out garbage programs like Marshall, UAB, New Mexico St, Tulane, etc. etc. that have no business being Division 1.

The difference is The Big East had a contract in front of them and turned it down. ESPN got pissed and had the ACC take 2 teams. BUT, The Big East still had basketball to fall on.
C-USA took teams that do not help them on the TV side, do nothing to make the conference stronger and do not have basketball to bail them out of making a mistake.
BIG difference.

(05-07-2012 01:46 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote:  

(05-06-2012 06:15 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Why the hell would C-USA wait around for something that I wouldn't give more than a 5% chance of ever happening? That's how you end up dying as a league, waiting around too long at too small of a number. I'm not thrilled by the candidates, but who else were we going to invite, and the merger isn't a viable option. If we are staying separate we needed to get back to at least 12 by 2013. Now if you left the decision up to me I'd add the teams with the best history of winning and largest FB attendance whether FCS or FBS, but I'm not in charge of anything. Either way sitting at 8 wasn't a realistic option. If the BE actually did fall apart most likely some kind of new league would be formed with the leftovers and the schools they wanted to be with, not some kind of 18 team league.

Exactly. Nothing CUSA could do in this case. Waiting is what screwed over the Big East in the first place. On top of that, if the big east did explode, the remaining teams would just pick the best non-aq teams to partner with, leaving out garbage programs like Marshall, UAB, New Mexico St, Tulane, etc. etc. that have no business being Division 1.

Explain to me how Marshall is a garbage program and doesn't deserve to be D-1 ?

(05-07-2012 01:50 PM)War Torn Ruston Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 01:46 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote:  

(05-06-2012 06:15 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Why the hell would C-USA wait around for something that I wouldn't give more than a 5% chance of ever happening? That's how you end up dying as a league, waiting around too long at too small of a number. I'm not thrilled by the candidates, but who else were we going to invite, and the merger isn't a viable option. If we are staying separate we needed to get back to at least 12 by 2013. Now if you left the decision up to me I'd add the teams with the best history of winning and largest FB attendance whether FCS or FBS, but I'm not in charge of anything. Either way sitting at 8 wasn't a realistic option. If the BE actually did fall apart most likely some kind of new league would be formed with the leftovers and the schools they wanted to be with, not some kind of 18 team league.

Exactly. Nothing CUSA could do in this case. Waiting is what screwed over the Big East in the first place. On top of that, if the big east did explode, the remaining teams would just pick the best non-aq teams to partner with, leaving out garbage programs like Marshall, UAB, New Mexico St, Tulane, etc. etc. that have no business being Division 1.

The difference is The Big East had a contract in front of them and turned it down. ESPN got pissed and had the ACC take 2 teams. BUT, The Big East still had basketball to fall on.
C-USA took teams that do not help them on the TV side, do nothing to make the conference stronger and do not have basketball to bail them out of making a mistake.
BIG difference.

You honestly have no idea what you are talking. Seriously, take a break from this board and go do something productive like say.....actually do some work.

(05-07-2012 01:53 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 01:50 PM)War Torn Ruston Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 01:46 PM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote:  

(05-06-2012 06:15 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Why the hell would C-USA wait around for something that I wouldn't give more than a 5% chance of ever happening? That's how you end up dying as a league, waiting around too long at too small of a number. I'm not thrilled by the candidates, but who else were we going to invite, and the merger isn't a viable option. If we are staying separate we needed to get back to at least 12 by 2013. Now if you left the decision up to me I'd add the teams with the best history of winning and largest FB attendance whether FCS or FBS, but I'm not in charge of anything. Either way sitting at 8 wasn't a realistic option. If the BE actually did fall apart most likely some kind of new league would be formed with the leftovers and the schools they wanted to be with, not some kind of 18 team league.

Exactly. Nothing CUSA could do in this case. Waiting is what screwed over the Big East in the first place. On top of that, if the big east did explode, the remaining teams would just pick the best non-aq teams to partner with, leaving out garbage programs like Marshall, UAB, New Mexico St, Tulane, etc. etc. that have no business being Division 1.

The difference is The Big East had a contract in front of them and turned it down. ESPN got pissed and had the ACC take 2 teams. BUT, The Big East still had basketball to fall on.
C-USA took teams that do not help them on the TV side, do nothing to make the conference stronger and do not have basketball to bail them out of making a mistake.
BIG difference.

You honestly have no idea what you are talking. Seriously, take a break from this board and go do something productive like say.....actually do some work.

I don't go to work til 12:00 midnight. I have plenty of time. And it does not change the fact that what I just said is true.

(05-06-2012 04:04 PM)War Torn Ruston Wrote:  

(05-06-2012 03:46 PM)blazr Wrote:  How does one "jump the gun too soon"?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

I will attempt to explain. If the Big East goes under C-USA as it stands now would get one school to move to 14 or 4 to get to 16. Instead of being patient and waiting to see if The Big East was gonna pan out for these school they opted to start inviting names left and right that really add nothing for the C-USA in general other than replacing markets they lost.

I cannot believe you directly replied to that...and with an entire paragraph.

(05-07-2012 02:00 PM)blazr Wrote:  

(05-06-2012 04:04 PM)War Torn Ruston Wrote:  

(05-06-2012 03:46 PM)blazr Wrote:  How does one "jump the gun too soon"?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

I will attempt to explain. If the Big East goes under C-USA as it stands now would get one school to move to 14 or 4 to get to 16. Instead of being patient and waiting to see if The Big East was gonna pan out for these school they opted to start inviting names left and right that really add nothing for the C-USA in general other than replacing markets they lost.

I cannot believe you directly replied to that...and with an entire paragraph.

Today's phrase,"Jump the gun too soon" has been brought to you by The Department of Redundancy Department.

Unless you jump the gun, and happen to be standing in front of it when it goes off. In that case, ignore the previous comment...

Like it matters what I wrote down as the post title. I was awake all of 5 minutes. I will fix it if it makes you feel better. You all find the dumbest $hit to bring up.