(04-18-2012 10:21 PM)Sluggo13 Wrote: (04-18-2012 06:47 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote: (04-18-2012 05:34 PM)chrisattsu Wrote: (04-18-2012 04:44 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote: I think UTSA will end up in the MWC and Texas St in the Sun Belt. UNT imo will be the only Texas school added to CUSA.
24 team with Pods (and layered media serviced between National and regional affiliates. Think Fox and Regional Fox Sports Affiliates)
Pac-
Hawaii / SJSU
Fresno / USU
UNR / UNLV
Mtn -
Wyo / CSU
UNM / Tulsa
Idaho / AFA (NMSt, AFA leaves)
Texas -
UTEP / Rice
TXST / UTSA
LATech / UNT
East -
Marshall / ECU
USM / Tulane
FIU / UAB
I think not. My opinion is it will not go to 24 right off jump street. And I seriously doubt it passes 20. That's a nice little setup you have there but I think eventually what you will see will look nothing like that.
Texas St will not end up in CUSA; maybe the MWC but not CUSA and more likely the Sun Belt or WAC. The MWC will need UTSA more than CUSA because they need more teams to get to 10 or 12. CUSA will be content with adding just UNT to replace SMU.
Totally agree as it doesn't make sense to go to 24 before right away. Probably a good idea to go to 20 until things shake out 2014.
If the CUSA and MWC both sit at 10 each (20). Then that would mean that CUSA would only take FIU, UNT and then the MWC would only be able to take Utah State and San Jose State.
I think the only way to really look at this is to see the motivations of the TWO conferences that are involved in the 'Alliance'. They don't have the same risk profile. As a result, they have different motivations.
The MWC's biggest risk. That they get raided again, and have no one to replace teams with. Pretty much ANY move by the MWC destroys the WAC. And once those 'left behind' WAC schools are gone (either to the Sun Belt, CUSA, or back to FCS), there will be no other schools left for the MWC to raid in the event of a future raid. So I think the MWC is going to go to at least 12. They'll have no insurance otherwise. Because the Sun Belt isn't going to let people join the conference without obscene penalties for leaving. So teams left to join the Belt in this round aren't going to be easy to pry off in the future.
The CUSA has a different risk profile. They are not so worried about survival. They are more worried about maintaining distance between themselves and the Sun Belt. CUSA's distance between itself and the Sun Belt is really just three teams, ECU, USM, and Tulsa, as well as a better TV contract. The real fear that they have is that in the event of a future round of realignment, that someone will take one or all of those higher profile CUSA teams and when they try to raid the Sun Belt, they get rejected by the Sun Belt teams. So since they can't really destroy the Sun Belt, they're going to try to shore up their TV marketability. Hence, FIU and UNT. And why UTSA is in the discussion. Obviously, La Tech is the 'best program' left on the board. My guess is that La Tech, if taken, will be only taken to keep them from going to the Belt, which would help the Sun Belt's football product. So CUSA takes the largest two markets from the Belt and the best program on the board. But if they expand beyond 3 teams, they risk damaging the football product relative to the Sun Belt. Unless that 4th program is an existing team from the Sun Belt is Middle Tennessee State. For the CUSA, taking UTSA could be a risk, because if that program struggles in FBS, the 'separation' argument from the Sun Belt could go out the window. My guess is that CUSA isn't going to take MTSU, but will take UTSA if on the board simply to keep them from the Belt. I think Charlotte is a ruse.
That's what I think may be driving both of these conferences' decisions. So I think that we're looking at 24 between the two conferences, for various reasons. As a Sun Belt fan, I hope that 20 is where these two conferences end it. But I don't think that's whats going to happen.
