(04-03-2012 10:12 AM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  TV deal? Pray tell...

It was mentioned earlier in the thread by someone. Current TV deal is about 10M/year. Reds are expecting to sign a deal worth at least 30M/year. Don't quote me on that, but I've seen it in more than one place. That's Votto's salary right there if true.

(04-03-2012 10:26 AM)50Cent Wrote:  I'm glad they kept votto but it's very long and very pricey....definitely risk involved. I understand these guys wanting to make as much as they can but does this hamstring the reds down the road paying for pitching especially. And what does paying one guy this much do to the team chemistry? I hope it works out but sure wish they could have done it for a bit less.

So you want Votto to take less than the going rate?

I would like to see the look on the face of your boss when you go in and tell him you would like to work for 80% of what you are making or what you could make in position with another company.

I love that the Reds are going for it. That said having ANY player under contract for 12 years is a really bad idea. Very exciting for the next 4-5 years and a possible disaster after that. Hopefully Votto can stay healthy and be somewhat productive from 35 on.

Given their ages and general physical health, I'd have to say with certainty that the investment in Votto is a much better bet than Pujols or Fielder. Fielder will be lucky if he can be productive at all in another 4-5 years. Pujols is no youngster.

Reds are going to be throwing away some money on the back end of this deal, but for the next 6 years or so this makes the Reds players. They have a lot of guys locked up until 2015.

Big gamble with a guy who is 30. Now we know why they sent Yonder packing.

The big what if will be how this team would have been with Yonder at 1b cheap plus $20 million dollars extra in pitching help over the next few years, not to mention what trading Votto would have brought in a trade.

Less worried about this being a Griffey type deal than I am in it being a PR deal like they gave to Larkin late. Not sure this is a great baseball move long or short term. Even less so since I don't see how they can sign Phillips now.

(04-03-2012 11:33 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Reds are going to be throwing away some money on the back end of this deal, but for the next 6 years or so this makes the Reds players. They have a lot of guys locked up until 2015.

Agreed, but if he performs at a high level the next 6-8 years, it's definitely worth it. Obviously that's contingent on the revenue streams and team payroll increasing, but by all accounts that seems to be the expected direction of the franchise.

Given that he's a 1B, it's "safer" than doing a similar deal for an outfielder or middle infielder too.

I could envision him having a great 6-7 years and then declining into a Sean Casey-type player, if you know what I mean. Not an elite player nor worth the money he'd be making late in the deal, but a solid contributor.

(04-03-2012 12:16 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Big gamble with a guy who is 30. Now we know why they sent Yonder packing.

The big what if will be how this team would have been with Yonder at 1b cheap plus $20 million dollars extra in pitching help over the next few years, not to mention what trading Votto would have brought in a trade.

Less worried about this being a Griffey type deal than I am in it being a PR deal like they gave to Larkin late. Not sure this is a great baseball move long or short term. Even less so since I don't see how they can sign Phillips now.

He's 28, but I don't disagree that it's a big gamble and the "what if" scenario will be a story we'll follow for the next decade.

Agreed on comparison being more Larkin than Griffey too. I think the major difference is that Castellini isn't going to let Votto's deal destroy team payroll flexibility.

Quote:Source: None of money in Votto's deal with #Reds is deferred. Contract is back-loaded.

Ken Rosenthal, Fox Baseball ‏ @Ken_Rosenthal

Taken from Lance's blog:

Votto's deal a coup for Reds
ESPN Insider
This contract does make it harder for the Reds to sign Brandon Phillips long-term, but that might be a blessing in disguise. Cincy's gotten a ton of value for a player that they acquired for Jeff Stevens, but he's also a second baseman on the wrong side of 30 coming off of easily his best year. Second basemen generally don't age like Jeff Kent, they age more like the tuna salad sandwich you left in your car on a hot summer day.
Cincinnati's keeping their best player in a long time in town for at least the vast majority of his career. Even a sarcastic grump like me can give that one a thumbs-up.

http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

There was a good chance that the Reds weren't going to bring back Phillips even before they extended Votto, so I don't get the outrage now. He's be 32 in the first year of a new deal that would likely cost $60-75 million. The Reds can't afford a deal that rewards past-performance for a non middle of the order bat, especially when you have a combination of Cozart, Hamilton, Gregorious, and Rodriguez to man the middle infield. I like Phillips. He's a fan favorite and a great defensive 2B, but I'd rather let Magic and the Dodgers sign him to his last big contract that he won't live up to.

I have to presume the heir apparent at 2B is Chris Valaika.

Quote:How Have Previous Joey Vottos Aged?

by Dave Cameron - April 3, 2012

Now that Joey Votto is signed with Cincinnati through his age 39 season, there’s a lot of talk about how long he can be expected to remain productive. The Reds are basically accepting that this deal will be an albatross at the end of the contract in order to secure premium years at reasonable prices in the first half of the deal. The discussion of the contract should not be whether Votto will be worth the money in 2021, 2022, or 2023 – he won’t be, in almost any scenario you can come up with – but by how much surplus value he’ll be able to create through 2020.

I have more thoughts on long term pricing valuations that I’ll share in the next day or two, but for now, I wanted to look at how productive other similar first baseman to Votto were in their age 28-39 seasons. To do this, I pulled every first baseman in history who had at least 2,000 plate appearances and a wRC+ between 142 to 161 from ages 24-27. Those are the ages that Votto has been a big leaguer for, and gives us a nice four year window leading up a player’s prime. Since Votto has a wRC+ of 152 and a WAR of 22.9 and all the players in the sample have a weighted average wRC+ of 150 and a WAR of 22.0, this group is almost identical in terms of recent performance to Votto at this point in his career.

Here’s the list of comparables, and their 24-27 performance:

Name PA BA OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
Hank Greenberg 2,147 0.327 0.429 0.658 0.475 161 27.1
Jim Thome 2,357 0.301 0.431 0.584 0.432 158 23.1
Fred McGriff 2,603 0.282 0.393 0.525 0.402 154 23.5
Jeff Bagwell 2,324 0.309 0.398 0.537 0.402 153 22.8
Will Clark 2,664 0.303 0.378 0.509 0.386 151 22.9
Eddie Murray 2,412 0.305 0.376 0.534 0.396 149 21.9
Harmon Killebrew 2,435 0.266 0.375 0.561 0.406 146 21.2
Prince Fielder 2,819 0.284 0.400 0.537 0.395 146 17
Don Mattingly 2,750 0.329 0.375 0.542 0.391 145 23.8
Miguel Cabrera 2,697 0.316 0.391 0.566 0.401 145 20
Harry Heilmann 2,395 0.346 0.401 0.527 0.425 142 20.4

Some pretty nice company there. Obviously, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder don’t really help us understand aging curves much since they’re still in a similar position to Votto throughout their careers, so they won’t be included in the next table, which is how these comparables performed from age 28-39.

Name PA BA OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
Hank Greenberg 2,783 0.299 0.409 0.591 0.450 157 30.5
Jim Thome 6,650 0.272 0.402 0.564 0.406 145 44
Fred McGriff 7,129 0.288 0.372 0.506 0.377 128 36.7
Jeff Bagwell 6,457 0.293 0.413 0.552 0.411 149 56.7
Will Clark 4,573 0.305 0.393 0.483 0.380 127 25.3
Eddie Murray 7,540 0.285 0.361 0.467 0.361 125 44.6
Harmon Killebrew 6,469 0.255 0.382 0.493 0.387 145 52.6
Don Mattingly 3,992 0.289 0.346 0.417 0.336 107 15
Harry Heilmann 4,884 0.364 0.437 0.564 0.452 155 48.7

The weighted average of the group’s wRC+ dropped from 150 to 137, still a fantastic total. These nine players compiled +354 WAR from 28-39 for a straight average of +39 WAR per player. A weighted average pushes the total up to +42 per player, but because guys who were unlikely to keep producing were dropped from the league before they could bring down their total numbers, a weighted average isn’t appropriate here.

You don’t need to do much analysis to realize that these guys were absolutely fantastic players over the bulk of their careers. Mattingly was the worst of the bunch, coming in at +15 WAR in 4,000 plate appearances, but the other eight ranged from All-Stars to Inner-Circle-Hall-Of-Famers for the duration of their careers.

If Votto racks up another +40 WAR before he retires, I’m fairly certain the Reds will look back on this contract with fondness, and they’ll be glad they kept a Hall-of-Fame player wearing a Cincinnati uniform for his entire career. Obviously, there’s a lot of risk involved with injury or unforeseen issues arising at some point, but Votto’s not all that high of a risk for near term performance collapse.

The reality is that there are a good number of positive comparisons for Votto, and any analysis that suggests that this deal is obviously not worth the money isn’t presenting the whole picture. This deal could go very wrong, but previous first baseman who have performed in a similar manner at the same ages as Votto have gone on to have highly productive careers even as they got older.

At some point in the next 12 years, Joey Votto will stop being worth $20 million per year. If he’s worth $30 million per year for a number of seasons up to that point, though, the Reds won’t care.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php...ttos-aged/

(04-03-2012 12:58 PM)ctipton Wrote:  I have to presume the heir apparent at 2B is Chris Valaika.

Yea I was thinking him or Zach Cozart? He's played a little 2B, right?

I have to presume that Cozart will be the SS for the next 3-4 years. I don't think either Gregorious or Hamilton will be Major League ready till then. Hamilton is being looked on as a 2B and Didi as a SS. We have probably (barring injury) seen the last of Janish.

(04-03-2012 01:32 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  

(04-03-2012 12:58 PM)ctipton Wrote:  I have to presume the heir apparent at 2B is Chris Valaika.

Yea I was thinking him or Zach Cozart? He's played a little 2B, right?

Chris Valaika's career took a U-turn last year and that's a very bad thing for a 26 year old in the minors. Anything's possible, but he's very unlikely to be the Reds starting 2B for any meaningful time frame. Hamilton is obviously projected/targeted as the eventual starting 2B, but he won't be ready by next year. Gregorious has a shot at the job but realistically he won't be ready either and is more of a SS as noted.

If this is BP's last year as a Red, my guess is next year's starting 2B isn't currently in the organization (unless they acquire a SS and move Cozart there.). I don't see it happening, but if I had to pick a guy from the organization to start next year at 2B other than BP it would be Frazier.

If the Reds don't win a world series in the next 3-4 years, this might be the worst offseason in Cincinnati sports. Also depends on how the SD guys do too.

I'm not sure who is happier about the mega-million dollar extension; Votto, his girlfriend, or the media members that got to gawk at said girlfriend? I see you Jim Day, maroon shirt, and same row photographer. You aren't supposed to stare at the sun. Use a little discretion, gentleman.

http://twitpic.com/95nok2/full

I didn't see the press conference but have read some comments posted by Castellini. Apparently he said it wouldn't affect signing BP? Is that right.

It should be interesting to see what happens with BP. Haven't seen any tweets from him since Joey was signed. Maybe he knows something is eminent with his new contract and is keeping quiet. Hmmm.