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BearChatter v2.0 Offline
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Post: #1
Phillips for Hamels?
http://www.trentonian.com/article/201203...full_story

Quote:OSBORNE: Trading Cole Hamels is Phillies’ best hope
By MATTHEW OSBORNE
mosborne@trentonian.comPosted: 03/20/12 03:31 pm

I’ve been saying for a long time that the Phillies are fools to leave Cole Hamels unsigned beyond 2012.

It’s an easy transaction, I’ve often said. He makes $15 million now, plus whatever money you glean from the departing Placido Polanco and Joe Blanton, and you can easily pay Hamels premium money.

But I’ve changed my tune on this issue. It’s not because of anything Hamels has done, but it’s out of necessity.

The Phillies should trade Cole Hamels right now.

There, I said it.
It’s a painful sentence to write, since after all this man is the hero of the only championship Philadelphia has seen since I was in first grade. Other than his 2009 hiccup season when he spent the offseason on the rubber chicken circuit instead of training, Hamels has been nothing short of brilliant for the Phillies.

His value will never be higher, and it’s time to cash in that chip.

Criticize if you will, but before you call the men in white coats, consider that a source in Cincinnati said on Tuesday that the Phillies and Reds had at least talked about a Hamels for Brandon Phillips swap. This is the kind of deal that would make sense, and here are the reasons.

THE CRIPPLED LINEUP
The Phillies face the prospect of entering the season without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, and neither of them are likely to ever be what they once were, even if they get back on the field sometime this season.

Howard is still unable to run and he’s overweight to boot. Utley is off looking for Tommy the Pinball Wizard’s miracle cure, which he’s not likely to find.

When you take the two best players out of anyone’s lineup, it’s a killer, and no amount of pitching will mask that.

The Phillies tried to overwhelm the baseball world with pitching over the last two seasons, and they failed because the aging lineup didn’t take care of business. I don’t blame Ruben Amaro Jr. for the last two years, because he and the owners gave Charlie Manuel all the soldiers they could muster. But at some point, players have to play.

Who’s going to take care of it this year? Ty Wigginton? Freddy Galvis? If you ask me, the Nationals and Marlins are better bets to win the NL East than this Phillies team as it is currently constructed.

If the team is going anywhere this season – or in the near future – it needs a young healthy stud infielder who can hit.

The only way you get one of those players is to trade a premium player in return.

But why Hamels?
REMEMBER 1-0
Having all these amazing pitchers is terrific fun, but there is a diminishing return eventually if you are too pitcher-heavy.

Just ask last year’s Phillies, who lost 1-0 to the Cardinals in the final game. They also were fortunate to win Game 3, when Hamels shut out the Cardinals for six innings. The regular lineup was vexed in that one, only to be rescued by Ben Francisco.

While we’re on the topic of the Cardinals, they had Chris Carpenter as their ace, but check out these numbers on the run support for their other pitchers. Jake Westbrook led the National League with 8.2 runs per nine innings, while Jaime Garcia (4th, 7.49) and Kyle Lohse (10th, 6.64) also were in the top 10.

Among pitchers who threw at least 200 innings in the NL last season (there were 20), Cliff Lee (4.95) and Hamels (4.96) were third and fourth worst, respectively, in the league. Only Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain got less from their hitters in 2011 among top starters.

In 2010, Roy Oswalt (4.12) was by far the least supported pitcher in the NL, followed by Roy Halladay (3rd worst, 5.24) and Hamels (5th worst, 5.35).

In the Phillies’ pennant years, Hamels got run support numbers of 6.97 (2009) and 6.02 (2008). In 2008, Jamie Moyer was sixth in the league among all starters with 6.88 runs, and Brett Myers also was in the top 30.

What does all this mean? It means great pitchers are fine but the lineup scores the runs. Without both clicking, you’re not going to win a championship.

And like the New York Giants taught us, either you’re all in or you’re not.

THE STAFF WILL ENDURE
If you trade Hamels for a top-flight infielder, you are left with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Vance Worley, Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton as your starting five. All but Blanton are under control for 2013 as well and the top three beyond that. I have said many times that if you make major decisions on who your fifth starter will be in a future season, you should leave the game for good.

So the staff is in place, and it’s good to go. Is it a championship-caliber staff? Sure it is.

It’s a better staff than the Cardinals or Rangers had last season, and they played seven games in the World Series.

It’s a better staff than the Phillies won the title with in 2008, with Halladay and Lee topping Hamels and Myers in direct one-to-one comparisons. Worley is at worst a wash with Moyer (and far younger) and Blanton is at worst a wash with his younger self. Kendrick has improved since 2008 so he gets the nod over himself as well.

That group of five can pitch the Phillies to a title, but it needs help, and it’s not going to come from Scott Podsednik.

Finally, if you’re not convinced yet, here’s the final reason.
HE’S GOING TO WALK
If the Phillies fail to win again this year – and they will as it looks now – Hamels will leave them. Someone will drive a dump truck of money up to his house and nab him, because top left-handed starters who have World Series MVPs to their name do not grow on trees.

The fact that the Phillies have no deal in place with him is clear evidence that they are not all that close on numbers. When the Phillies wanted to lock up Howard, Utley and Jimmy Rollins (the first time), deals got done long before impending free agency was a concern.

But with all this money tied up in pitching already (don’t forget Jonathan Papelbon), the Phillies may be wary of giving Hamels a giant deal.
So don’t. Trade him before it’s too late. Don’t give up this season before it starts.

I do that deal in a nanosecond.

Can't afford BP beyond this season. Won't be able to sign Hamels either.

Which would I rather have for one season.......a whining, angry, complaining Phillips or Cole Hamels? Our offense is already pretty good, and Spring Training showed several prospects that might be ready to make the jump for second base. Either way, I'll find a way to fill 2B, just give me Hamels.
 
03-20-2012 04:19 PM
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BearChatter v2.0 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/2012...=137039688

Quote:
David Murphy: Utley's career could be in jeopardy

by David Murphy posted Tue, Mar. 20, 2012, 3:01 AM


CLEARWATER, Fla. - An era is supposed to last longer than elementary school. Second basemen are supposed to last longer than senators. Six years might be a long time between albums, but it can't be all the time we'll get to watch Chase Utley at his peak.

Can it?


Look, there is no delicate way to start this discussion. Shel Silverstein could illustrate a children's book about an anthropomorphic vegetable's career-threatening knee injury and most Phillies fans would still find themselves curled on the floor in the fetal position. The impact of the story does not change, whether the story happens to be called "Tom Tomato's Tendinitis" or "Daddy Has a New Infield." At 33 years old, the best second baseman in Phillies history is fighting just to make it back onto the field. And until he succeeds, we can't help but wonder.

Intuition says no. Hell, no. Not Utley. Not now. This is an athlete who has played an entire half of a season with a tear in his hip, an athlete who has beaten sprained thumbs and fractured wrists without once slowing down. Chase Utley was born to be buried beneath infield dirt, to be placed in an upside-down-coffin so he can go in headfirst.

"I know Utley," Charlie Manuel said yesterday, "and I know how much he likes to play, and I know what he'll do to get back to where he's always been."

As the manager of a team that finds itself heading into a season without the right side of its infield and two of the most important hitters in its lineup, Manuel has few options besides optimism. All of the glowing reports about Freddy Galvis do not change the fact that he is a 22-year-old kid who has played just 33 games above Double A and until 2011 had never hit better than .240 in a minor league season. Yesterday, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said that the slick-fielding shortstop had shown enough at second base this spring to make him a strong candidate to start there on Opening Day. But with Ryan Howard expected to miss at least 2 months at first base and a duo of unproven players expected to share time in leftfield, the Phillies already might have all the batting-order mulligans that they can afford.


So yeah, Manuel believes Utley will be back in the three-hole sooner rather than later. What other choice does he have? The faith is not blind, at least not to anybody who has watched Utley play since he broke into the majors in 2003. We are talking about a second baseman who once seemed destined for the Hall of Fame. When Utley became a regular in 2005, Major League Baseball had seen just 14 seasons in which a second baseman hit at least .276 with a .375 on-base percentage, .445 slugging percentage and 16 home runs. Utley did it in each of the next six. The only player to have a longer run was Rogers Hornsby, the all-time great who played 23 seasons in the first half of the 20th century. Utley has yet to reach even half that total.

"He's not that old," Manuel said.

At 33 years old, Hornsby won his second Most Valuable Player award, hitting .380/.459/.679 with 39 home runs. Then again, that year was the last in which he played more than 100 games. Medicine is far more advanced than it was in 1932, when Hornsby's season was derailed by a case of boils on his feet. But you can say the same thing about the conditions that defy that medicine, and after more than a year of doctors' opinions and assiduous rehabilitation, Utley has yet to find the cure for the chronic soreness in his right knee.

Yesterday, Amaro revealed that Utley is now battling the same issue in his left knee. As recently as last week, the GM was insisting that Utley, who has not appeared in a Grapefruit League game, would be ready to play on Opening Day.

Now?

"I worry about Chase because it's a chronic problem," Amaro said when asked if he was worried about Utley's long-term future. "About his career? I don't know."

Utley's focus is still on 2012. After a 2-month absence to start last season, he was still one of the better offensive second basemen in the game, although nowhere close to the six seasons prior. In a mid-February news conference, Utley expressed confidence that his body was better equipped to perform at an elite level than it was a year prior. But those are the last extensive comments he has made about his health. As is usually the case with Utley, the specific details of his physical condition are shrouded in secrecy. If heads of state were guarded as closely as the identity of the specialist he left camp to visit, we may never have witnessed the presidency of LBJ.

It is worth noting that Utley admitted in February that he could not yet rule out surgery. The exact procedure that is on the table is, of course, a secret. But all the information you really need about that surgery - the expected length of recovery, the chances of success - can be inferred from the fact that he did not choose to have it this offseason. Carlos Beltran missed a calendar year after undergoing a procedure known as microfracture. Last year, he returned to play at an All-Star level. Grady Sizemore underwent a similar surgery in 2010 and continues to be plagued with health issues.

A lengthy surgical recovery would come uncomfortably close to the end of Utley's contract, which pays him $15 million per year and expires after the 2013 season.

"If he doesn't play again that would be something horrible," said Jimmy Rollins, Utley's longtime doubleplay partner. "That would be horrible. But I don't see it that way. At least I hope that's not the case."

Every member of the Phillies organization has that hope. Six years might mean a long run for a beagle. But for an athlete the caliber of Utley, it should mean a career that has barely begun.

Rut roh.
 
03-20-2012 04:24 PM
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bearcatjim Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
No way I do that deal. Reds offense is pretty good? Outside of BP, Votto, and sometimes Bruce, whattya got? An old Rolen, a SS whose career minor league avg is around .270, a guy who challenges for the strikeout record every year, and a couple of platoon players.

Sign BP now.
 
03-20-2012 04:34 PM
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BearChatter v2.0 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
(03-20-2012 04:34 PM)bearcatjim Wrote:  Sign BP now.

Why sign him? Because you like watching good players age into their late 30's, become mediocre to bad players, and extremely overpaid on these ridiculous long term contracts?

Okay. Whatever.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2012 04:53 PM by BearChatter v2.0.)
03-20-2012 04:51 PM
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BeerCat Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
I would love this trade. You win in baseball with pitching. We have had plenty of "great" offenses, give me a dominant pitching team and you are in every game.
 
03-20-2012 05:06 PM
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Coopdaddy67 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
Jim's right, the Reds' offense is terribly inconsistent and they can't afford to lose a guy like BP right now. If they were trading him for prospects or a guy who would be around for more than 1 season, that would be different.

IMO, the Reds are in decent position in terms of starting pitching, especially with guys like Chapman and Francis who've done pretty well thus far.

I realize Chapman may start the year in the minors, but I would love to put Arroyo between Latos and Chapman later this year. Talk about screwing with opponents.
 
03-20-2012 05:49 PM
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beck Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
"a whining, angry, complaining Phillips"....hahaha.[/align]
 
03-21-2012 07:59 AM
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bearcatjim Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
(03-20-2012 04:51 PM)BearChatter v2.0 Wrote:  
(03-20-2012 04:34 PM)bearcatjim Wrote:  Sign BP now.

Why sign him? Because you like watching good players age into their late 30's, become mediocre to bad players, and extremely overpaid on these ridiculous long term contracts?

Okay. Whatever.

Late 30's? Phillips is in his prime and it would be stupid to argue that he won't continue to be very productive for minimally another 5 years. Even with Phillips this offense is going to struggle this year if Rolen can't remain healthy. And history tells us he won't. I can't imagine how anemic our offense would be with no Phillips and no Rolen.

And as Coop mentions, Hamels would be a one-year rental.

I agree you win with pitching, but that's why I like having guys like Cueto, Latos, Bailey, and Leake anchoring this staff. Young, inexpensive guys comparatively.

This would be a stupid trade and Jocketty is not stupid, so I'm not the least bit concerned that it will happen.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2012 09:04 AM by bearcatjim.)
03-21-2012 09:01 AM
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bearcatjim Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
Oh, and Phillips isn't too shabby on defense either.
 
03-21-2012 09:51 AM
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BearChatter v2.0 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
It won't happen. But they aren't going to sign BP long term. Why is it taking so long and why would they flirt with this trade idea? They know they can't afford him. He's 31 years old and wanting to get paid like $15M per year for 5 or 6 years.

BP has already started whining about it. (I like BP, but he wears his heart on his sleeve and sometimes sticks his foot in his mouth)

History tells us that not many players do very well past about 34 years old.

Reds need to stick to the Tampa model of small market success. Pay for pitching, scout and develop so that the farm system is constantly replacing the position players to keep payroll cheap. And never, ever get locked into a long term contract paying a guy until he's 38 or 40 a ridiculous amount of money.

And if the Reds don't sign BP long term, then he is a one year rental, the same as Hamels.

The Reds farm system is going to surprise alot of people this year. I think it's already got management's attention, which could affect Votto and Phillips future with the team.
 
03-21-2012 12:34 PM
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Post: #11
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
(03-20-2012 05:49 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  Jim's right, the Reds' offense is terribly inconsistent and they can't afford to lose a guy like BP right now. If they were trading him for prospects or a guy who would be around for more than 1 season, that would be different.

IMO, the Reds are in decent position in terms of starting pitching, especially with guys like Chapman and Francis who've done pretty well thus far.

I realize Chapman may start the year in the minors, but I would love to put Arroyo between Latos and Chapman later this year. Talk about screwing with opponents.

I'd trade Chapman as soon as another team offered the world for him. He is chronically injured with shoulder and arm problems, like Bailey, and I'd get something for him at max value as soon as they can. He is not going to hold up.
 
03-21-2012 12:35 PM
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Bearhawkeye Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
(03-21-2012 12:34 PM)BearChatter v2.0 Wrote:  It won't happen. But they aren't going to sign BP long term. Why is it taking so long and why would they flirt with this trade idea? They know they can't afford him. He's 31 years old and wanting to get paid like $15M per year for 5 or 6 years.

BP has already started whining about it. (I like BP, but he wears his heart on his sleeve and sometimes sticks his foot in his mouth)

History tells us that not many players do very well past about 34 years old.

Reds need to stick to the Tampa model of small market success. Pay for pitching, scout and develop so that the farm system is constantly replacing the position players to keep payroll cheap. And never, ever get locked into a long term contract paying a guy until he's 38 or 40 a ridiculous amount of money.

I considered a LTC for BP as pretty unlikely at this point, but in another thread I linked a report from the ESPN guys that it probably will get done so who knows. I think most Reds fans share your concern about LTCs for vets and how that fits into future budgets (although I highly doubt the Reds are talking a contract that takes BP to age 38 or 40 so I don't know why you chose those examples). If a deal happens, I'll have to see the terms before evaluating it.

As far as a trade right now, it's pretty hard to find a legit 2B on such short notice, especially with a (near?) rookie at SS.
 
03-21-2012 05:47 PM
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bearcatjim Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
(03-21-2012 12:34 PM)BearChatter v2.0 Wrote:  It won't happen. But they aren't going to sign BP long term. Why is it taking so long and why would they flirt with this trade idea? They know they can't afford him. He's 31 years old and wanting to get paid like $15M per year for 5 or 6 years.

BP has already started whining about it. (I like BP, but he wears his heart on his sleeve and sometimes sticks his foot in his mouth)

History tells us that not many players do very well past about 34 years old.

Reds need to stick to the Tampa model of small market success. Pay for pitching, scout and develop so that the farm system is constantly replacing the position players to keep payroll cheap. And never, ever get locked into a long term contract paying a guy until he's 38 or 40 a ridiculous amount of money.

And if the Reds don't sign BP long term, then he is a one year rental, the same as Hamels.

The Reds farm system is going to surprise alot of people this year. I think it's already got management's attention, which could affect Votto and Phillips future with the team.
BP is worth every penny of that deal.

And I'll bet ya a dollar the Reds do sign him to that deal. I think Jocketty knows that he and Votto are the cornerstones.
 
03-21-2012 09:23 PM
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Post: #14
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
I don't want them to sign them (UNLESS). It will be the KGJ era all over again. Money tied up in 2 guys with a weak supporting cast.

UNLESS........I repeat, UNLESS.....they are going to get creative and defer alot of money for those 2 guys........and UNLESS attendance increases because those 2 guys are key in the Reds dominating the NL Central, consistently making the playoffs, and hopefully making some World Series appearances and possibly a championship...........attendance increase equalling revenue increase to cover salary increases, etc............this is KEY.

Reds are small market. If this is a situation where they overspend on 2 players and fill the rest of the roster with cheap rookies and scrap heap guys, then signing BP and Votto is a major mistake.

But unlike what Lindner did as an owner with KGJ........if they use these 2 guys as building blocks, then I change my mind and I'm all for it. I'm simply against it because the Reds are small market, typically act like small market, have payroll/revenue concerns.................and should be going the way of Tampa's model if payroll is a concern, which is investing in pitching, trading superstars for good young players in return to continue to bolster the lineup to go with very good pitching. Other than Longoria, who they signed reasonably like the Reds did with Bruce, buying out free agent years, Tampa rarely keeps anyone into free agency. They buy them out ahead of time or trade them for a haul.

As for BP being worth every penny? He is right now. He won't be in 3 or 4 years. BP is on record wanting to a contract that makes him a career Red...........that would mean a 6 to 9 year contract. BP isn't going to be worth $12M or $15M at age 36 and beyond. No way in hell. If he's willing to sign a 3 or 4 year deal, then I do it. If he's willing to sign a deal that decreases reasonably in yearly salary after age 35, then I consider it.

I just don't want to see the Reds saddled with big contracts for 2 guys in their late 30's who are producing at 60% of what they used to be and are playing 100 to 120 games, while the Reds overall are fighting for second or third place. Ugly to watch the decline.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-22-2012 06:49 AM by BearChatter v2.0.)
03-22-2012 06:46 AM
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BearChatter v2.0 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Phillips for Hamels?
(03-21-2012 09:23 PM)bearcatjim Wrote:  
(03-21-2012 12:34 PM)BearChatter v2.0 Wrote:  It won't happen. But they aren't going to sign BP long term. Why is it taking so long and why would they flirt with this trade idea? They know they can't afford him. He's 31 years old and wanting to get paid like $15M per year for 5 or 6 years.

BP has already started whining about it. (I like BP, but he wears his heart on his sleeve and sometimes sticks his foot in his mouth)

History tells us that not many players do very well past about 34 years old.

Reds need to stick to the Tampa model of small market success. Pay for pitching, scout and develop so that the farm system is constantly replacing the position players to keep payroll cheap. And never, ever get locked into a long term contract paying a guy until he's 38 or 40 a ridiculous amount of money.

And if the Reds don't sign BP long term, then he is a one year rental, the same as Hamels.

The Reds farm system is going to surprise alot of people this year. I think it's already got management's attention, which could affect Votto and Phillips future with the team.
BP is worth every penny of that deal.

And I'll bet ya a dollar the Reds do sign him to that deal. I think Jocketty knows that he and Votto are the cornerstones.

You're too sentimental about your players. It's a business. Those players won't blink an eye if they can get 5 cents more playing for xyz team over the Reds. Yet they whine and ***** about management loyalty. It's a two way street and players are as hypocritical as management is.
 
03-22-2012 06:48 AM
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