BearChatter v2.0
Rounding Third and headed...
Posts: 8,548
Joined: Nov 2009
Reputation: 62
I Root For: Da Bearcats!
Location: Blue Ash
|
Phillips for Hamels?
http://www.trentonian.com/article/201203...full_story
Quote:OSBORNE: Trading Cole Hamels is Phillies’ best hope
By MATTHEW OSBORNE
mosborne@trentonian.comPosted: 03/20/12 03:31 pm
I’ve been saying for a long time that the Phillies are fools to leave Cole Hamels unsigned beyond 2012.
It’s an easy transaction, I’ve often said. He makes $15 million now, plus whatever money you glean from the departing Placido Polanco and Joe Blanton, and you can easily pay Hamels premium money.
But I’ve changed my tune on this issue. It’s not because of anything Hamels has done, but it’s out of necessity.
The Phillies should trade Cole Hamels right now.
There, I said it.
It’s a painful sentence to write, since after all this man is the hero of the only championship Philadelphia has seen since I was in first grade. Other than his 2009 hiccup season when he spent the offseason on the rubber chicken circuit instead of training, Hamels has been nothing short of brilliant for the Phillies.
His value will never be higher, and it’s time to cash in that chip.
Criticize if you will, but before you call the men in white coats, consider that a source in Cincinnati said on Tuesday that the Phillies and Reds had at least talked about a Hamels for Brandon Phillips swap. This is the kind of deal that would make sense, and here are the reasons.
THE CRIPPLED LINEUP
The Phillies face the prospect of entering the season without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, and neither of them are likely to ever be what they once were, even if they get back on the field sometime this season.
Howard is still unable to run and he’s overweight to boot. Utley is off looking for Tommy the Pinball Wizard’s miracle cure, which he’s not likely to find.
When you take the two best players out of anyone’s lineup, it’s a killer, and no amount of pitching will mask that.
The Phillies tried to overwhelm the baseball world with pitching over the last two seasons, and they failed because the aging lineup didn’t take care of business. I don’t blame Ruben Amaro Jr. for the last two years, because he and the owners gave Charlie Manuel all the soldiers they could muster. But at some point, players have to play.
Who’s going to take care of it this year? Ty Wigginton? Freddy Galvis? If you ask me, the Nationals and Marlins are better bets to win the NL East than this Phillies team as it is currently constructed.
If the team is going anywhere this season – or in the near future – it needs a young healthy stud infielder who can hit.
The only way you get one of those players is to trade a premium player in return.
But why Hamels?
REMEMBER 1-0
Having all these amazing pitchers is terrific fun, but there is a diminishing return eventually if you are too pitcher-heavy.
Just ask last year’s Phillies, who lost 1-0 to the Cardinals in the final game. They also were fortunate to win Game 3, when Hamels shut out the Cardinals for six innings. The regular lineup was vexed in that one, only to be rescued by Ben Francisco.
While we’re on the topic of the Cardinals, they had Chris Carpenter as their ace, but check out these numbers on the run support for their other pitchers. Jake Westbrook led the National League with 8.2 runs per nine innings, while Jaime Garcia (4th, 7.49) and Kyle Lohse (10th, 6.64) also were in the top 10.
Among pitchers who threw at least 200 innings in the NL last season (there were 20), Cliff Lee (4.95) and Hamels (4.96) were third and fourth worst, respectively, in the league. Only Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain got less from their hitters in 2011 among top starters.
In 2010, Roy Oswalt (4.12) was by far the least supported pitcher in the NL, followed by Roy Halladay (3rd worst, 5.24) and Hamels (5th worst, 5.35).
In the Phillies’ pennant years, Hamels got run support numbers of 6.97 (2009) and 6.02 (2008). In 2008, Jamie Moyer was sixth in the league among all starters with 6.88 runs, and Brett Myers also was in the top 30.
What does all this mean? It means great pitchers are fine but the lineup scores the runs. Without both clicking, you’re not going to win a championship.
And like the New York Giants taught us, either you’re all in or you’re not.
THE STAFF WILL ENDURE
If you trade Hamels for a top-flight infielder, you are left with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Vance Worley, Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton as your starting five. All but Blanton are under control for 2013 as well and the top three beyond that. I have said many times that if you make major decisions on who your fifth starter will be in a future season, you should leave the game for good.
So the staff is in place, and it’s good to go. Is it a championship-caliber staff? Sure it is.
It’s a better staff than the Cardinals or Rangers had last season, and they played seven games in the World Series.
It’s a better staff than the Phillies won the title with in 2008, with Halladay and Lee topping Hamels and Myers in direct one-to-one comparisons. Worley is at worst a wash with Moyer (and far younger) and Blanton is at worst a wash with his younger self. Kendrick has improved since 2008 so he gets the nod over himself as well.
That group of five can pitch the Phillies to a title, but it needs help, and it’s not going to come from Scott Podsednik.
Finally, if you’re not convinced yet, here’s the final reason.
HE’S GOING TO WALK
If the Phillies fail to win again this year – and they will as it looks now – Hamels will leave them. Someone will drive a dump truck of money up to his house and nab him, because top left-handed starters who have World Series MVPs to their name do not grow on trees.
The fact that the Phillies have no deal in place with him is clear evidence that they are not all that close on numbers. When the Phillies wanted to lock up Howard, Utley and Jimmy Rollins (the first time), deals got done long before impending free agency was a concern.
But with all this money tied up in pitching already (don’t forget Jonathan Papelbon), the Phillies may be wary of giving Hamels a giant deal.
So don’t. Trade him before it’s too late. Don’t give up this season before it starts.
I do that deal in a nanosecond.
Can't afford BP beyond this season. Won't be able to sign Hamels either.
Which would I rather have for one season.......a whining, angry, complaining Phillips or Cole Hamels? Our offense is already pretty good, and Spring Training showed several prospects that might be ready to make the jump for second base. Either way, I'll find a way to fill 2B, just give me Hamels.
|
|