MTSU has an RPI of 38. Seems like they have a very good shot at an at-large bid if they win out until the final (or maybe semifinal). What they can't afford is being upset by WKU this week.

Everyone keeps saying the SEC will get 5 bids. I just don't see it. Alabama is still in good shape for bid #4 with an RPI of 36, but they are fading. Without Mitchell and Green (their 2 leader scorers) they will be hard pressed to win tonight at Arkansas or against MSU on Saturday. Maybe they still squeak in. But where is the 5th bid? Mississippi State is #60, Mississippi is #63, and LSU is #67. Any of those teams seems like a stretch at this point. It would be a crime if any of those teams beat out Middle (if they lose in the tourney) especially since MTSU beat Ole Miss in Mississippi.

Nitology has the Chickenhawgs (#88) as a 2 seed. We didn't even get in when we had RPI's of about 80 one year and 90 the next. Just shows the bias toward the "big boys".

(02-23-2012 01:18 PM)mjs Wrote:  MTSU has an RPI of 38. Seems like they have a very good shot at an at-large bid if they win out until the final (or maybe semifinal). What they can't afford is being upset by WKU this week.

Everyone keeps saying the SEC will get 5 bids. I just don't see it. Alabama is still in good shape for bid #4 with an RPI of 36, but they are fading. Without Mitchell and Green (their 2 leader scorers) they will be hard pressed to win tonight at Arkansas or against MSU on Saturday. Maybe they still squeak in. But where is the 5th bid? Mississippi State is #60, Mississippi is #63, and LSU is #67. Any of those teams seems like a stretch at this point. It would be a crime if any of those teams beat out Middle (if they lose in the tourney) especially since MTSU beat Ole Miss in Mississippi.

Nitology has the Chickenhawgs (#88) as a 2 seed. We didn't even get in when we had RPI's of about 80 one year and 90 the next. Just shows the bias toward the "big boys".

It is difficult at this time to really predict how the last few bids will be allocated. As far as the SEC goes, right now other than Ky, Fla, and Vandy I'm don't think anything is very certain. As you point out, a lot could happen to Alabama to lower its stock in the next couple of weeks. But some things could happen to raise the stock of some of the others also.

I think MTSU is also in pretty good shape as long as they don't stumble here late in the regular season or early in the SBC Tourney. Expecially given the addition of 4 extra teams, they should be ok if they don't get the automatic. But of course we have seen teams like MTSU get screwed too many times to feel very comfortable.

About the NIT. I think we got sunk on the NIT bid due to the number of Division I wins, not because of the RPI. We just had too many non Division I wins in our record. And, was the NIT run by the NCAA at that time? I can't remember. I do know that when Wally Small said that the Chickenhawgs could get home wins to get them to NYC, he either assumed they would be a #1 seed in the NIT or wasn't up to speed on the fact that the NIT is now seeded with the higher seeds getting the home games. My guess is that he just doesn't know how it works- but what else is new?

(02-23-2012 04:20 PM)PTJR Wrote:  

(02-23-2012 01:18 PM)mjs Wrote:  MTSU has an RPI of 38. Seems like they have a very good shot at an at-large bid if they win out until the final (or maybe semifinal). What they can't afford is being upset by WKU this week.

Everyone keeps saying the SEC will get 5 bids. I just don't see it. Alabama is still in good shape for bid #4 with an RPI of 36, but they are fading. Without Mitchell and Green (their 2 leader scorers) they will be hard pressed to win tonight at Arkansas or against MSU on Saturday. Maybe they still squeak in. But where is the 5th bid? Mississippi State is #60, Mississippi is #63, and LSU is #67. Any of those teams seems like a stretch at this point. It would be a crime if any of those teams beat out Middle (if they lose in the tourney) especially since MTSU beat Ole Miss in Mississippi.

Nitology has the Chickenhawgs (#88) as a 2 seed. We didn't even get in when we had RPI's of about 80 one year and 90 the next. Just shows the bias toward the "big boys".

It is difficult at this time to really predict how the last few bids will be allocated. As far as the SEC goes, right now other than Ky, Fla, and Vandy I'm don't think anything is very certain. As you point out, a lot could happen to Alabama to lower its stock in the next couple of weeks. But some things could happen to raise the stock of some of the others also.

I think MTSU is also in pretty good shape as long as they don't stumble here late in the regular season or early in the SBC Tourney. Expecially given the addition of 4 extra teams, they should be ok if they don't get the automatic. But of course we have seen teams like MTSU get screwed too many times to feel very comfortable.

About the NIT. I think we got sunk on the NIT bid due to the number of Division I wins, not because of the RPI. We just had too many non Division I wins in our record. And, was the NIT run by the NCAA at that time? I can't remember. I do know that when Wally Small said that the Chickenhawgs could get home wins to get them to NYC, he either assumed they would be a #1 seed in the NIT or wasn't up to speed on the fact that the NIT is now seeded with the higher seeds getting the home games. My guess is that he just doesn't know how it works- but what else is new?

Most folks around here don't. They just assume the Chickenhawgs will get home games because of their attendance. They could still be seeded high enough to get a home game or two, but there's no way to know that now (at the moment they wouldn't get a home game). I think the first time we were left out, the NIT was still independent (that's when we had 15 DI wins, but an RPI of like 75 or 80). I think the second time it was run be the NCAA. We were about 91 in the RPI. That time their picks pretty much followed the RPI, although there may have been an outlier or two. I think they took most teams in the top 90 or so.