Would bunting more really help Drew Stubbs?
02/15/12 at 11:42am
Written by
nhurm
Author Joel Luckhaupt is a statistician for Fox Sports Ohio Reds broadcasts. He also co-authored a book on the 1990 World Champion Reds - The Wire -to-Wire Reds.
(Enquirer File)
If Drew Stubbs can handle it, mixing in a few more bunts could increase his overall value, but the change likely would not be so much to make it worth waiting around for him to become a proficient bunter.
Last season, a caller into the local sports talk show was adamant: “Why isn’t Drew Stubbs bunting more? He’s wasting his speed swinging for home runs and all it does is lead to strikeouts!!”
It’s a refrain heard frequently from fans in regards to the Reds center fielder. Frustrated by his strikeouts and intrigued by his speed – after all, he may be one of the ten fastest players in the game right now – many fans are looking for anything to get Stubbs to put the ball in play more. For many fans, strikeouts are a disaster, a waste of an at bat. And when that player has the speed of a gazelle, failing to put the ball in play is an even bigger problem.
But what would it really mean if Drew Stubbs bunted more? Would it improve his stat line, like many fans believe, or would the more sabermetrically inclined be right in suggesting that more bunting would result in Stubbs trading home runs for singles and hurt his overall value?
It’s hard to say if bunting more would fundamentally change Stubbs as a player. The majority of players that frequently use the bunt to get hits are slap hitters with nowhere near the level of power of Stubbs. And because of that, many of those players have to be successful bunters in order to stick in the big leagues. Otherwise, they typically don’t have enough tools in their arsenal to be any sort of a threat at the plate.
However, that doesn’t mean that one can’t imagine what Stubbs’ line might look like if he were to lay down a few more bunts during the season. To simplify things, one can assume that the only thing that will change about Stubbs’ game is that he will bunt more frequently. The rate of all other events (home runs, strikeouts, walks, etc.) will remain the same for all other non-bunting plate appearances.
The next step is to decide how often and how successful Stubbs needs to be as a bunter. These two items are closely connected as the frequency with which one bunts can affect how successful one is as a bunter. If a team knows a player is coming up to bunt, the defense can adjust accordingly. The element of surprise can play a big role in the hitter’s success rate on bunts.
Here’s a more informed estimate about how Stubbs might perform as a bunter. Consider the list below:
Player 1 bunt* in every… Batting average on Bunts*
Drew Stubbs 69 plate appearances .450
Peter Bourjos 17 plate appearances .524
Juan Pierre 14 plate appearances .388
Carlos Gomez 12 plate appearances .424
Joey Gaithright 10 plate appearances .327
* Only considering non-sacrifice bunts
Peter Bourjos is probably the game’s best bunter today. Juan Pierre has been the most prolific bunter in the last twenty seasons. Carlos Gomez is an interesting comparison for Stubbs for a few reasons that will be addressed later. Joey Gaithright is an example of poor bunting strategy.
Using some basic arithmetic, here’s a projection of what Stubbs would look like with similar bunting frequency and success rates as the players listed above, assuming that nothing else changes about Stubbs’ stat rates in the process:
Stubbs as… AVG OBP SLG 2B HR K BB
Stubbs (162 game average) .251 .325 .406 21 21 195 62
Bourjos .266 .337 .414 20 20 187 60
Pierre .258 .329 .406 20 20 184 59
Gomez .264 .333 .409 20 19 182 59
Gaithright .257 .325 .398 19 19 178 58
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If Drew Stubbs can bunt like Peter Bourjos, adding bunting to his repertoire would be a no-brainer. Unfortunately, expecting someone to go from being an occasional bunter to being the best bunter in the game is not a fair thing to ask of a player.
However, even if Stubbs could bunt as successfully as Bourjos, the difference is only eight additional times on base by Stubbs a year, or the equivalent of about five additional runs for the Reds.
Even if Drew Stubbs could bunt as successfully as the Angels' Peter Bourjos (shown), the difference is only eight additional times on base by Stubbs a year, or the equivalent of about five additional runs for the Reds.
He’d only be adding singles and an occasional reached on error, which are useful but not as individually valuable as the home runs and doubles he’d be sacrificing. So, while Stubbs could have better results, bunting is not going to turn him into an all-star or put the Reds over the top for the playoffs.
If Stubbs can handle it, mixing in a few more bunts could increase his overall value, but the change likely would not be so much to make it worth waiting around for him to become a proficient bunter.
While bunting more would likely increase his average and decrease his strikeouts, it would also decrease his extra-base hits and walks. As the Joey Gaithright example shows, if he cannot manage to get on base at a good clip via the bunt, it might actually hurt his overall value.
A couple of notes on the examples:
* The Gaithright example may also be a good example of what would happen if Stubbs regularly shortened his swing to make better contact. Assuming that a shorter swing would mean somewhat weaker contact, Stubbs could cut down on his strikeouts, but it may not ultimately help his value. Sacrificing extra base hits, and occasional walks, simply to make better contact doesn’t always make the player more productive.
* Frequent bunters who strike out a lot are a rarity. Some of this is because the bunts cut down on strikeouts, but some is because many high-K hitters also have a lot of power. Bourjos and Gomez are both rare examples of low-power/high-strikeout players who bunt frequently (at least once every 25 plate appearances). Both players have career strikeout rates around 22%, which is still well short of Stubbs’ 29% strikeout rate. While some of Stubbs’ strikeouts are a result of his big looping swing, it’s also possible that he does not have the proper pitch recognition ability to be a successful bunter.
* Even more rare than frequent bunters who strikeout a lot is a tall bunter. Of all of the players who bunted at least once every 25 plate appearances since 1988, only two are over 6’2” tall. Gene Kingsale was 6’3” and played just 211 games over six seasons in the big leagues. The other was Gomez, who matches Stubbs at 6’4”.It could be that Stubbs’ height is a hindrance to his bunting ability, but if he chooses to increase his bunting frequency, using Gomez’s style as a model might be helpful.
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Joel Luckhaupt
The bunting data used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at http://www.retrosheet.org.