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Reds - Thursday
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ctipton Offline
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Post: #1
Reds - Thursday
Behind enemy lineups: Chicago Cubs
Former Boston GM Epstein tries Chicago edition


[Image: bilde?Site=AB&Date=20120215&...icago-Cubs]
The Enquirer/Carrie Cochran
Travis Wood, acquired by the Cubs in the Reds' deal for Sean Marshall, should be part of the starting rotation in Chicago.

Say this for Theo Epstein: He’s certainly not afraid of curses.

The onetime wunderkind general manager presided over two World Series champions in Boston, including the 2004 team that broke the fabled Curse of the Bambino, winning a title for the first time in 86 years.

Now he’s on Chicago’s North Side, where the Curse of the Billy Goat has purportedly kept the Cubs from even playing in a World Series since 1945. The franchise hasn’t won a World Series since 1908.

Epstein, now the team’s president of baseball operations, looks to be rebuilding by tearing down first. Gone are temperamental right-hander Carlos Zambrano, slugging corner infielders Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Peña and manager Mike Quade. In: a new manager in former Brewer Dale Sveum, untradeable holdover Alfonso Soriano and a cast of younger players.

It’s probably too soon to expect the Cubs to contend, given their 71-91 finish with more production in the lineup last season. But with Epstein’s track record, it probably won’t be too long before they do.

Where the Cubs stand heading into spring training:

PACKING FOR SPRING: The Cubs added left-hander Travis Wood (6-6, 4.84 ERA) from the Reds for elite setup man Sean Marshall. Also new are left-hander Paul Maholm (6-14, 3.66 with Pittsburgh); right-hander Chris Volstad (5-13, 4.89 with Florida); third baseman Ian Stewart (.156, no homers, 6 RBI for Colorado); outfielder David DeJesus (.240, 10, 46 with Oakland); first baseman Anthony Rizzo, left-hander Trever Miller and right-hander Andy Sonnanstine.

SPRING CLEANING: Gone are Quade; Zambrano (9-7, 4.82); Ramirez (.306, 26, 93); Peña (.225, 28, 80); left-hander Marshall; right-hander Andrew Cashner; catcher Koyie Hill.

FOR STARTERS: 1. RH Ryan Dempster, 34 (10-14, 4.80); 2. RH Matt Garza, 28 (10-10, 3.32); 3. LH Wood, 24; 4. RH Volstad, 25; LH Maholm, 29. Dempster, a onetime Red who won 43 games from 2008-10 for the Cubs, took a step back last season with an ERA a run higher than the previous year. Chicago will need him to bounce back. They’ll hope for the same from Wood, who found neither a niche nor his rookie-year stuff with the Reds last season, and Volstad, a former Marlins top pick who had a great rookie year in 2008 but has mostly struggled since. Garza and Maholm are rock solid, and the Zambrano sideshow won’t be missed.

CLOSING TIME
: RH Carlos Marmol, 29 (2-6, 4.01, 34 saves). Marmol’s season was a mixed bag. He can be overpowering (.205 opponents’ average, 99 strikeouts in 74 innings), but walks too many batters and loses focus. He blew 10 save chances. Absent Marshall, former Notre Dame wideout Jeff Samardzija (8-4, 2.97) could be an option if Marmol fails.

EVERYDAY EIGHT
: C-Geovany Soto, 28 (.228, 17, 54); 1B-Bryan LaHair, 29 (.288, 2, 6); 2B-Darwin Barney, 26 (.276, 2, 43); SS-Starlin Castro, 21 (.307, 10, 66); 3B-Stewart, 26 ; LF-Soriano, 35 (.244, 26, 88); CF-Marlon Byrd, 34 (.276, 9, 35); RF-DeJesus, 32. The Cubs will miss the combined 54 homers of Ramirez and Peña, but not their strikeouts. Shortstop Castro could be poised for great things, but there’s a cloud over him; he has been questioned, but not charged, in an alleged sexual assault. Soriano’s production no longer befits his eight-year, $134 million contract, but it has three seasons left to run. Former Springboro High and University of Cincinnati standout Tony Campana, in camp for the first time, is listed as a backup at two outfield spots, but the Cubs’ leader in steals last season (24 in 26 tries) could push for more time.

SPRING’S BURNING QUESTION: Former Rockie Stewart will get the first look at third base, but who steps in for Peña? LaHair, Rizzo and Jeff Baker, 1-2-3 on the team’s depth chart, combined for six homers last season. Peña hit more than that last May (seven) and again in June (10). The Cubs have to find a way to get some pop out of that position.

BOTTOM LINE: A hundred and three years is a long time to wait for a World Series championship. Longer still is 104.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120...t|Sports|p
 
02-16-2012 06:17 AM
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ctipton Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Reds - Thursday
Would bunting more really help Drew Stubbs?

02/15/12 at 11:42am
Written by nhurm

Author Joel Luckhaupt is a statistician for Fox Sports Ohio Reds broadcasts. He also co-authored a book on the 1990 World Champion Reds - The Wire -to-Wire Reds.

[Image: Stubbs-bunt-228x300.jpg]
(Enquirer File)
If Drew Stubbs can handle it, mixing in a few more bunts could increase his overall value, but the change likely would not be so much to make it worth waiting around for him to become a proficient bunter.

Last season, a caller into the local sports talk show was adamant: “Why isn’t Drew Stubbs bunting more? He’s wasting his speed swinging for home runs and all it does is lead to strikeouts!!”

It’s a refrain heard frequently from fans in regards to the Reds center fielder. Frustrated by his strikeouts and intrigued by his speed – after all, he may be one of the ten fastest players in the game right now – many fans are looking for anything to get Stubbs to put the ball in play more. For many fans, strikeouts are a disaster, a waste of an at bat. And when that player has the speed of a gazelle, failing to put the ball in play is an even bigger problem.

But what would it really mean if Drew Stubbs bunted more? Would it improve his stat line, like many fans believe, or would the more sabermetrically inclined be right in suggesting that more bunting would result in Stubbs trading home runs for singles and hurt his overall value?

It’s hard to say if bunting more would fundamentally change Stubbs as a player. The majority of players that frequently use the bunt to get hits are slap hitters with nowhere near the level of power of Stubbs. And because of that, many of those players have to be successful bunters in order to stick in the big leagues. Otherwise, they typically don’t have enough tools in their arsenal to be any sort of a threat at the plate.

However, that doesn’t mean that one can’t imagine what Stubbs’ line might look like if he were to lay down a few more bunts during the season. To simplify things, one can assume that the only thing that will change about Stubbs’ game is that he will bunt more frequently. The rate of all other events (home runs, strikeouts, walks, etc.) will remain the same for all other non-bunting plate appearances.

The next step is to decide how often and how successful Stubbs needs to be as a bunter. These two items are closely connected as the frequency with which one bunts can affect how successful one is as a bunter. If a team knows a player is coming up to bunt, the defense can adjust accordingly. The element of surprise can play a big role in the hitter’s success rate on bunts.

Here’s a more informed estimate about how Stubbs might perform as a bunter. Consider the list below:

Player 1 bunt* in every… Batting average on Bunts*
Drew Stubbs 69 plate appearances .450
Peter Bourjos 17 plate appearances .524
Juan Pierre 14 plate appearances .388
Carlos Gomez 12 plate appearances .424
Joey Gaithright 10 plate appearances .327

* Only considering non-sacrifice bunts

Peter Bourjos is probably the game’s best bunter today. Juan Pierre has been the most prolific bunter in the last twenty seasons. Carlos Gomez is an interesting comparison for Stubbs for a few reasons that will be addressed later. Joey Gaithright is an example of poor bunting strategy.

Using some basic arithmetic, here’s a projection of what Stubbs would look like with similar bunting frequency and success rates as the players listed above, assuming that nothing else changes about Stubbs’ stat rates in the process:
Stubbs as… AVG OBP SLG 2B HR K BB

Stubbs (162 game average) .251 .325 .406 21 21 195 62
Bourjos .266 .337 .414 20 20 187 60
Pierre .258 .329 .406 20 20 184 59
Gomez .264 .333 .409 20 19 182 59
Gaithright .257 .325 .398 19 19 178 58

.

If Drew Stubbs can bunt like Peter Bourjos, adding bunting to his repertoire would be a no-brainer. Unfortunately, expecting someone to go from being an occasional bunter to being the best bunter in the game is not a fair thing to ask of a player.

However, even if Stubbs could bunt as successfully as Bourjos, the difference is only eight additional times on base by Stubbs a year, or the equivalent of about five additional runs for the Reds.

[Image: Picture-5-254x300.png]
Even if Drew Stubbs could bunt as successfully as the Angels' Peter Bourjos (shown), the difference is only eight additional times on base by Stubbs a year, or the equivalent of about five additional runs for the Reds.

He’d only be adding singles and an occasional reached on error, which are useful but not as individually valuable as the home runs and doubles he’d be sacrificing. So, while Stubbs could have better results, bunting is not going to turn him into an all-star or put the Reds over the top for the playoffs.

If Stubbs can handle it, mixing in a few more bunts could increase his overall value, but the change likely would not be so much to make it worth waiting around for him to become a proficient bunter.

While bunting more would likely increase his average and decrease his strikeouts, it would also decrease his extra-base hits and walks. As the Joey Gaithright example shows, if he cannot manage to get on base at a good clip via the bunt, it might actually hurt his overall value.

A couple of notes on the examples:

* The Gaithright example may also be a good example of what would happen if Stubbs regularly shortened his swing to make better contact. Assuming that a shorter swing would mean somewhat weaker contact, Stubbs could cut down on his strikeouts, but it may not ultimately help his value. Sacrificing extra base hits, and occasional walks, simply to make better contact doesn’t always make the player more productive.

* Frequent bunters who strike out a lot are a rarity. Some of this is because the bunts cut down on strikeouts, but some is because many high-K hitters also have a lot of power. Bourjos and Gomez are both rare examples of low-power/high-strikeout players who bunt frequently (at least once every 25 plate appearances). Both players have career strikeout rates around 22%, which is still well short of Stubbs’ 29% strikeout rate. While some of Stubbs’ strikeouts are a result of his big looping swing, it’s also possible that he does not have the proper pitch recognition ability to be a successful bunter.

* Even more rare than frequent bunters who strikeout a lot is a tall bunter. Of all of the players who bunted at least once every 25 plate appearances since 1988, only two are over 6’2” tall. Gene Kingsale was 6’3” and played just 211 games over six seasons in the big leagues. The other was Gomez, who matches Stubbs at 6’4”.It could be that Stubbs’ height is a hindrance to his bunting ability, but if he chooses to increase his bunting frequency, using Gomez’s style as a model might be helpful.

- Joel Luckhaupt

The bunting data used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at http://www.retrosheet.org.
 
02-16-2012 06:23 AM
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ctipton Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Reds - Thursday
Keeping Cueto, Bailey off DL key

[Image: bilde?Site=AB&Date=20120215&...off-DL-key]
Enquirer file photo
Johnny Cueto started last season on disabled list and was limited to 24 starts.

Written by
John Fay

Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey started last season on disabled list and were limited to 24 and 22 starts respectively. Cueto turned 26 today. Bailey is 25. Both have had a lot of big league experience at a young age.

The Reds have to hope that last year’s injuries were mere bumps on the road to becoming 200-inning pitchers. Cueto went on the DL during spring training with tendonitis in his right biceps and triceps. He was shut down again at the end of the year with a strained lat.

Bailey had two stints on the DL with shoulder tendonitis.

Neither Cueto nor Bailey required surgery. Both went through extensive rehabs programs. So the Reds are hoping that they can make 30 starts.

How important is healthy of starting rotation? Three pitchers were pressed into starting last year by injuries. Sam LeCure, Matt Maloney and Dontrelle Willis. They made a total of 19 starts. The Reds were 6-13 in those games. The Reds were 27-19 in Cueto and Bailey’s starts.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120...t|Sports|s
 
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2012 06:27 AM by ctipton.)
02-16-2012 06:26 AM
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ctipton Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Reds - Thursday
Reds invite 16 non-roster players to Spring Training

Published - Feb 15 2012 06:18PM EST

Kevin Pool, Cincinnati Reds Examiner

The Cincinnati Reds will be opening Spring Training on Feb. 18 when pitchers and catchers report and among those attending will be 16 non-roster invitees.

The biggest names are former Rockies 17-game winner Jeff Francis, utility man Willie Harris and catcher Dioner Navarro. Here's a look at the list.

Pitchers :

Nick Christiani -Split time betweenn AA-Carolina and AAA-Louisville where he went a combined 4-3 with ten saves.

Daniel Corcino -Appeared in 26 games for the Dayton Dragons and 11-7 with a 3.42 ERA and had one complete game.

Jeff Francis -The lefty went 6-16 for Kansas City last season and is a career 61-66 with a 4.78 ERA and has one World Series appearance with Colorado.

Sean Gallagher -Last appeared in the majors in 2010 with Pittsburgh and spent last season with their AAA-affiliate where he went 5-12. Gallagher made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 2007.

Donnie Joseph -Appeared in 57 games with AA-Carolina and went 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA.

Ron Mahay -Made his MLB debut in 1997 with Boston and has gone 27-12 with a 3.83 ERA in 514 games. He spent last season bouncing around in St. Louis and Arizona's farm system.

Chad Reineke -Spent the last two seasons in Louisville , but made his Reds debut last season when he started a May 31 game against Milwaukee. He made his MLB debut in 2008 with San Diego.

Clayton Tanner -Spent 2011 with the Giants AA-affiliate and one game in Louisville after the Giants released Tanner. He went 6-10 with a 4.29 ERA last season.

Kanekoa Texeira -Spent the past two seasons with Seattle and Kansas City. Texeira was claimed off waivers by the Yankees, then released and re-signed before electing free agency at the end of last season.

Clay Zavada -Last appeared in 2009 with Arizona where he went 3-3 with a 3.35 ERA in 49 games. Zavada has spent the last two seasons in the Diamondbacks farm system. In 2010 he had Tommy John Surgery and missed a majority of the season.

Catchers

Tucker Barnhart -Played in 97 games in Dayton last season and hit three home runs and drove in 43 RBI while hitting .273.

Brian Esposito -A journeyman in the minor leagues since 2000, Esposito has played three major league games, first with St. Louis in 2007 and then with Houston in 2010. He's spent the last three seasons in Houston's farm system.

Corky Miller -No stranger to Reds fans, Miller has spent the majority of his second stint with the Reds in Louisville . He made his MLB debut with the Reds in 2001 and has appeared in 136 games over six seasons.

Dioner Navarro -A veteran presence behind the plate, Navarro has spent a majority of his career in Tampa, but spent last year with the Dodgers where he appeared in 64 games where he backed up Rod Barajas.

Outfielders


Willie Harris -A speedy utility man who can provide spot starts and pinch run, appeared in 126 games for the Mets last season hitting .246 with 23 RBI in 240 at bats.

Daryl Jones -Spent the last seven seasons in the Cardinals farm system. Last season he hit .260 with seven home runs and 35 RBI between AA and AAA.

http://www.rr.com/local/topic/article/rr..._to_Spring
 
02-16-2012 08:36 AM
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