Kennesaw is out.

With last night's loss to ETSU, Stetson gives Jacksonville the upper hand. Beat UNF, and JU is in. Lose, and Stetson can make the field with a win over Upstate. If the both lose, JU is in.

Conference Tournament Clinching Scenarios:

IN: Mercer, Belmont, Upstate, Gulf Coast, UNF (as of 2/18), ETSU (as of 2/20) (more than 7 wins)
ALSO IN: Lipscomb (they can fall to 7-11, but the only teams they can be tied with are teams they have swept.)

SEEDING:

Belmont is the 1-seed.

Mercer beat Upstate twice, so they're the 2.

Upstate is the 3.

ETSU can claim the 4-seed with either a win or a UNF loss.

UNF is playing for first-round jersey color. They're the 4 if they win and ETSU loses. Otherwise they're the 5.

If UNF loses, FGCU is the 6 win or lose.

Lipscomb has locked up the 7.

Either Stetson or Jacksonville will be the 8. The other will be out.

Jacksonville is a long way from dead. Even though they're behind Stetson by one game in the race for the 8 seed, it's the Hatters that are in a tougher spot. JU's last 3 are all at home, including against towel-thrown-in Kennesaw and inconsistent rival UNF. Stetson hasn't won a game this month and finishes at FGCU (red-hot at home), at ETSU (either a win or a 20-point loss, depending on which Bucs team shows up) and at USC Upstate (who's officially good at men's basketball, which is weird as hell to type.)

Thanks for the updates! Good to see it all written out. Just as I'm looking forward to the season finale, Mercer has a lot of work to do before getting to that Feb 25th game. An auto-NIT bid is huge to have in the pocket going into the tourney.

(02-14-2012 05:30 PM)HatterFan Wrote:  Jacksonville is a long way from dead. Even though they're behind Stetson by one game in the race for the 8 seed, it's the Hatters that are in a tougher spot. JU's last 3 are all at home, including against towel-thrown-in Kennesaw and inconsistent rival UNF. Stetson hasn't won a game this month and finishes at FGCU (red-hot at home), at ETSU (either a win or a 20-point loss, depending on which Bucs team shows up) and at USC Upstate (who's officially good at men's basketball, which is weird as hell to type.)

You're right about the kinds of games coming up. Stetson has 3 losable games, and Jacksonville has 2 that are (realistically) winnable.

But since Stetson controls the tiebreaker, for Jacksonville to get through they have to win both winnable games and have Stetson lose all 3. If one of Stetson's opponents has a bad night and the Hatters find a way to steal one, barring a major upset that's pretty much the ballgame for Jacksonville.

Of course, a JU win over Mercer reversess tiebreaker control, so there's that.

(02-15-2012 02:00 PM)DadofTwins Wrote:  

(02-14-2012 05:30 PM)HatterFan Wrote:  Jacksonville is a long way from dead. Even though they're behind Stetson by one game in the race for the 8 seed, it's the Hatters that are in a tougher spot. JU's last 3 are all at home, including against towel-thrown-in Kennesaw and inconsistent rival UNF. Stetson hasn't won a game this month and finishes at FGCU (red-hot at home), at ETSU (either a win or a 20-point loss, depending on which Bucs team shows up) and at USC Upstate (who's officially good at men's basketball, which is weird as hell to type.)

You're right about the kinds of games coming up. Stetson has 3 losable games, and Jacksonville has 2 that are (realistically) winnable.

But since Stetson controls the tiebreaker, for Jacksonville to get through they have to win both winnable games and have Stetson lose all 3. If one of Stetson's opponents has a bad night and the Hatters find a way to steal one, barring a major upset that's pretty much the ballgame for Jacksonville.

Of course, a JU win over Mercer reversess tiebreaker control, so there's that.

Doesn't JU already have the tiebreaker because of a win over USC Upstate?

JU has split the season series with Stetson and JU has a win against a higher ranked team. Thus JU already has the tiebreaker.

(02-15-2012 03:27 PM)Statman101 Wrote:  

(02-15-2012 02:00 PM)DadofTwins Wrote:  

(02-14-2012 05:30 PM)HatterFan Wrote:  Jacksonville is a long way from dead. Even though they're behind Stetson by one game in the race for the 8 seed, it's the Hatters that are in a tougher spot. JU's last 3 are all at home, including against towel-thrown-in Kennesaw and inconsistent rival UNF. Stetson hasn't won a game this month and finishes at FGCU (red-hot at home), at ETSU (either a win or a 20-point loss, depending on which Bucs team shows up) and at USC Upstate (who's officially good at men's basketball, which is weird as hell to type.)

You're right about the kinds of games coming up. Stetson has 3 losable games, and Jacksonville has 2 that are (realistically) winnable.

But since Stetson controls the tiebreaker, for Jacksonville to get through they have to win both winnable games and have Stetson lose all 3. If one of Stetson's opponents has a bad night and the Hatters find a way to steal one, barring a major upset that's pretty much the ballgame for Jacksonville.

Of course, a JU win over Mercer reversess tiebreaker control, so there's that.

Doesn't JU already have the tiebreaker because of a win over USC Upstate?

JU has split the season series with Stetson and JU has a win against a higher ranked team. Thus JU already has the tiebreaker.

You are correct. I had Stetson, not Jacksonville, beating Upstate earlier.

So Stetson has a rougher road ahead of them than I thought.

Stetson only has, in effect, a 1/2-game lead in the standings. And considering that one of Jacksonville's games is against Kennesaw, that puts them in the driver's seat. Stetson has to match Jacksonville win-for-win over the last 3 games to stay ahead.

What the hell, all of a sudden Jacksonville is a damn juggernaut. I thought Stetson had some breathing room when they won at FGCU last night, but nooooo, JU has to go beat freakin' Mercer.

(02-18-2012 08:06 PM)HatterFan Wrote:  What the hell, all of a sudden Jacksonville is a damn juggernaut. I thought Stetson had some breathing room when they won at FGCU last night, but nooooo, JU has to go beat freakin' Mercer.

I know, it was brutal. As I said after the last JU/Mercer game, JU's style is to simply be as physical as possible. They create contact and push the limits of the game. Look at the # of free throws for reference. This home game for JU they got the better end of all the contact. I don't like their style, but it did work here tonight. They are clearly not who you want to face as a #1 seed for the fact that they can win 1 game, but cannot win 3.

What if JU wins out and ETSU loses out? JU could make the tournament and ETSU could miss it right? The tiebreaker with ETSU and JU would go all the way down to Stetson, where JU would have the tiebreaker because they would have beaten Stetson.

Yes, but it would really deal on how many teams are tied in that mix as well, but yes ETSU could miss the tournament by losing out.

WHat has to happen to eliminate ETSU:

Lipscomb beats ETSU
Florida-Gulf Coast beats ETSU
Mercer beats UNF
Jacksonville beats UNF
Jacksonville beats Kennesaw
Stetson beats ETSU
Stetson beats USC-Upstate
Lipscomb beats either Mercer or Kennesaw

This set of results would leave Stetson and UNF tied for 6th at 8-10, and ETSU and Jacksonville tied for 8th at 7-11. Stetson beats UNF by virtue of their win over USCU. Jacksonville and ETSU woudl have identical records against the top 5 teams. And with Stetson #6 and UNF #7, Jacksonville's win over Stetson makes them #8.

So it's a long shot, but not completely impossible.

That's not impossible. We won't win another game until November.

Seven teams are in now including Lipscomb. Only the 8th and final spot is to be decided and that could be decided as early as Friday night.

ETSU is in.

OP updated to reflect games of 2/20. ETSU is in, Belmont is in the driver's seat for the 1-seed, and Lipscomb suddenly started shooting FTs like my 9-year-old.

It sucks that Mercer has lost 2 straight, but a little good does come out of it. Now of course this "good" is not worth losing the regular season title -- but it's better than nothing. The "good" is that they will avoid Jacksonville (and North Florida) in the first round. The potential 1st round matchup of either Lipscomb, ETSU, or FGCU all sound good. Belmont drawing JU is great because I believe JU can win with this momentum and their aggressive beat-you-up style of play. JU will at minimum wear Belmont down.

That would be WAY too much fun to see Belmont go home early again.

Lipscomb reporting that #2 Mercer vs. #7 Lipscomb is 7:30pm/Central on Wednesday. I like how the bracket is setting up! I want UNF, ETSU, and JU on Belmont's side of the bracket.