The $64,000 Question about any new program our conference invites is "will they bring in more revenue to the conference than they will receive from it"? Every new school we add is another mouth to feed, they will take several million dollars in TV and other money, thus, it only makes sense to add a team if they bring in more conference revenue than they take out. If they will receive more than they provide, then this is a bad invitation for the conference to make. If they provide more than they receive, it is a good invitation to make.

In other words, it's their marginal contribution that determines the wisdom of the invitation.

Of course, we can never know in advance what that marginal value - positive or negative - will be. That's what we are all debating when we argue for or against inviting certain schools.

However, one possible indicator of likely marginal value is the reaction of fans of a school to a Big East invitation. If we invite a program and their fans flood this forum celebrating wildly, this strongly suggests that they believe their school will be receiving more money than they contribute. This is good for their school, but bad for the conference, and thus the conference made a mistake in inviting them.

Conversely, if we invite a program and they accept and their fans are morose about it, this suggests that the fans believe their school will contribute more than they receive. Good for the conference, but thus bad for the school.

For example, if Notre Dame joined for football and on an equal basis, they would almost surely contribute more revenue to the Big East than they would receive. And thus their fans would not be celebrating Big East membership, they would be pissed off about it, questioning the sanity of their administrators. In contrast, recent invitations and acceptances have been met with jubilation by fans of those new teams, which suggests that the Big East made bad moves in inviting them.

I'm sure the Big East office would have preferred to have added Notre Dame, Penn State, and Virginia Tech, but that wasn't really a possibility. Of the schools that were available Boise State, Houston, and UCF were clearly the best choices and Navy, San Diego, SMU and Memphis all bring something good to the table. You can argue that Memphis brings the weakest football program of any of the programs under consideration, but the basketball makes up for it and it seems like they have the financial resources to improve to at least the middle of the pack in football. Of the remaining non AQ teams available BYU is the only one who would is head and shoulders above what Memphis could be in five years.

Frankly, with the postion the Big East is in, they aren't going to be able to add members without warts. We just need to rally and make the best of what we have. That's how the MW became good enough to have half of it's conference picked off by BCS conferences. Hopefully already being a BCS conference will allow us to build to a point where we won't be being picked off.

I am telling you guys that Memphis football will surprise you very soon, more potential than many teams that already throwing stones. Yes we are in the middle of SEC country and we have neglected it for too long but USF will always be at best 4th fiddle in Florida so being able to be as good as them won't take long. You forget you are also getting a poweful basketball program that draws 17-18k for CUSA games now and has an average RPI over the last 10 years tied with UCONN one point behind Louisville. Don't sneeze at Elite 8, Elite 8, National Championship game, Sweet 16, and NCAA 2nd round in the last 5 years.

(02-08-2012 10:30 AM)ZachMan Wrote:  I am telling you guys that Memphis football will surprise you very soon, more potential than many teams that already throwing stones. Yes we are in the middle of SEC country and we have negelected it for too long but USF will always be at best 4th fiddle in Florida so being able to be as good as them won't take long. You foget you are also getting a poweful basketball program that draws 17-18k for CUSA games now and has an average RPI over the lst 10 years tied with UCONN one point behind Louisville. Don't sneeze at Elite 8, Elite 8, National Championship game, Sweet 16, and NCCA 2nd round in the last 5 years.

Nobody is upset about adding your basketball but don't try to blow sunshine up our ass about your football. Yes, there's potential, but until that potential starts to come through don't expect us to be happy about adding a really bad football team to the conference.

(02-08-2012 10:30 AM)ZachMan Wrote:  I am telling you guys that Memphis football will surprise you very soon, more potential than many teams that already throwing stones.

Seriously, what is your potential? Where are your quality recruits going to come from?

(02-08-2012 10:37 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:30 AM)ZachMan Wrote:  I am telling you guys that Memphis football will surprise you very soon, more potential than many teams that already throwing stones.

Seriously, what is your potential? Where are your quality recruits going to come from?

I have a question. Are you like this all the time, or is this just a bad week? j/k

(02-08-2012 10:40 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:37 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:30 AM)ZachMan Wrote:  I am telling you guys that Memphis football will surprise you very soon, more potential than many teams that already throwing stones.

Seriously, what is your potential? Where are your quality recruits going to come from?

I have a question. Are you like this all the time, or is this just a bad week? j/k

It doesn't help that we have a bunch of Tiger homers coming here telling us we should be afraid of their "powerhouse" that hasn't lost less than 10 games in three years...

(02-08-2012 10:37 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:30 AM)ZachMan Wrote:  I am telling you guys that Memphis football will surprise you very soon, more potential than many teams that already throwing stones.

Seriously, what is your potential? Where are your quality recruits going to come from?

Seriously. You should probably type less. West TN has some really nice talent to try to pin down. UC recruits the Memphis area for a reason.

(02-08-2012 10:53 AM)k5james Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:40 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:37 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:30 AM)ZachMan Wrote:  I am telling you guys that Memphis football will surprise you very soon, more potential than many teams that already throwing stones.

Seriously, what is your potential? Where are your quality recruits going to come from?

I have a question. Are you like this all the time, or is this just a bad week? j/k

It doesn't help that we have a bunch of Tiger homers coming here telling us we should be afraid of their "powerhouse" that hasn't lost less than 10 games in three years...

Has anyone actually used the term "powerhouse" but you?

(02-08-2012 10:40 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:37 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 10:30 AM)ZachMan Wrote:  I am telling you guys that Memphis football will surprise you very soon, more potential than many teams that already throwing stones.

Seriously, what is your potential? Where are your quality recruits going to come from?

I have a question. Are you like this all the time, or is this just a bad week? j/k

She's like this all the time. It was actually really nice for the last few weeks, she hadn't posted nearly as much and this board became readable again. But you jerks getting invited to the party must've woken her up.

(02-08-2012 10:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The $64,000 Question about any new program our conference invites is "will they bring in more revenue to the conference than they will receive from it"? Every new school we add is another mouth to feed, they will take several million dollars in TV and other money, thus, it only makes sense to add a team if they bring in more conference revenue than they take out. If they will receive more than they provide, then this is a bad invitation for the conference to make. If they provide more than they receive, it is a good invitation to make.

In other words, it's their marginal contribution that determines the wisdom of the invitation.

Of course, we can never know in advance what that marginal value - positive or negative - will be. That's what we are all debating when we argue for or against inviting certain schools.

However, one possible indicator of likely marginal value is the reaction of fans of a school to a Big East invitation. If we invite a program and their fans flood this forum celebrating wildly, this strongly suggests that they believe their school will be receiving more money than they contribute. This is good for their school, but bad for the conference, and thus the conference made a mistake in inviting them.

Conversely, if we invite a program and they accept and their fans are morose about it, this suggests that the fans believe their school will contribute more than they receive. Good for the conference, but thus bad for the school.

For example, if Notre Dame joined for football and on an equal basis, they would almost surely contribute more revenue to the Big East than they would receive. And thus their fans would not be celebrating Big East membership, they would be pissed off about it, questioning the sanity of their administrators. In contrast, recent invitations and acceptances have been met with jubilation by fans of those new teams, which suggests that the Big East made bad moves in inviting them.

Quo, you often make very legitimate points---today must be an off day for you. This is just silly. Fan reaction on a bulletin board is absolutely no indication of the contribution a school will make to a conference's net worth. A better indication might be athletic budget. FYI-The Memphis athletic budget would tend to indicate they will be a worthy conference mate.

I think everyone who has been added except but Boise and Navy probably are net losses in terms of revenue.

Still, I don't think anyone is a huge hit on revenue. The current value of the BE isn't so much driven by who is in it, it is driven by the current seller's market in terms of TV rights. As long as NBC/Comcast is chomping at the bit for a college conference, the BE will get paid.

(02-08-2012 11:20 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I think everyone who has been added except but Boise and Navy probably are net losses in terms of revenue.

Still, I don't think anyone is a huge hit on revenue. The current value of the BE isn't so much driven by who is in it, it is driven by the current seller's market in terms of TV rights. As long as NBC/Comcast is chomping at the bit for a college conference, the BE will get paid.

We deliver the San Diego market so I doubt very much that we are a net loss.

(02-08-2012 10:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The $64,000 Question about any new program our conference invites is "will they bring in more revenue to the conference than they will receive from it"? Every new school we add is another mouth to feed, they will take several million dollars in TV and other money, thus, it only makes sense to add a team if they bring in more conference revenue than they take out. If they will receive more than they provide, then this is a bad invitation for the conference to make. If they provide more than they receive, it is a good invitation to make.

In other words, it's their marginal contribution that determines the wisdom of the invitation.

Of course, we can never know in advance what that marginal value - positive or negative - will be. That's what we are all debating when we argue for or against inviting certain schools.

However, one possible indicator of likely marginal value is the reaction of fans of a school to a Big East invitation. If we invite a program and their fans flood this forum celebrating wildly, this strongly suggests that they believe their school will be receiving more money than they contribute. This is good for their school, but bad for the conference, and thus the conference made a mistake in inviting them.

Conversely, if we invite a program and they accept and their fans are morose about it, this suggests that the fans believe their school will contribute more than they receive. Good for the conference, but thus bad for the school.

For example, if Notre Dame joined for football and on an equal basis, they would almost surely contribute more revenue to the Big East than they would receive. And thus their fans would not be celebrating Big East membership, they would be pissed off about it, questioning the sanity of their administrators. In contrast, recent invitations and acceptances have been met with jubilation by fans of those new teams, which suggests that the Big East made bad moves in inviting them.

Oh my gosh, now why didn't anyone else think this yet!? Better programs = more money! It's so obvious now! Let's get Marinatto on the phone with Ohio State, USC, Texas, and Alabama tomorrow and get them all here ASAP!

(02-08-2012 11:23 AM)k5james Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 11:20 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I think everyone who has been added except but Boise and Navy probably are net losses in terms of revenue.

Still, I don't think anyone is a huge hit on revenue. The current value of the BE isn't so much driven by who is in it, it is driven by the current seller's market in terms of TV rights. As long as NBC/Comcast is chomping at the bit for a college conference, the BE will get paid.

We deliver the San Diego market so I doubt very much that we are a net loss.

I wouldn't take offense. I'm talking about relative to the per team numbers before the last round of expansion. If it makes you feel any better, on second thought, I'm not sure even Boise and Navy don't decrease the per team numbers relative to what the BE would have gotten. Bottom line is that it is difficult to keep the per team numbers up when you add mouths to feed, save for a select few programs. The good news is that it still will be great revenue.

(02-08-2012 11:20 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I think everyone who has been added except but Boise and Navy probably are net losses in terms of revenue.

Still, I don't think anyone is a huge hit on revenue. The current value of the BE isn't so much driven by who is in it, it is driven by the current seller's market in terms of TV rights. As long as NBC/Comcast is chomping at the bit for a college conference, the BE will get paid.

Agreed...also, I think Memphis is a great addition. I'm sure Fred Smith will get involved and bring some $$$ through advertising and sponsorship to the nBE. BTW, Memphis BB will help bring back a near elite team to the BE after losing WVU and Pitt. On the FB side they are struggling but with a BCS label they will be able to recruit the higher level Memphis Area kids against the SEC.

Memphis also is a great pick for geography. With a Delta hub many schools can travel efficiently to Memphis. Memphis also helps bridge the gap between TX and the NE schools. It doesn't hurt either that you will get the Liberty Bowl full time in a few years. Finally, Memphis is one of the best places to visit for a 3-4 day weekend around a FB or BB game. Plus Memphis has awesome tailgating.

I have a Memphis Tailgate and Visitors Guide done...see my link below and click on Memphis on the right hand side.

(02-08-2012 11:23 AM)k5james Wrote:  

(02-08-2012 11:20 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I think everyone who has been added except but Boise and Navy probably are net losses in terms of revenue.

Still, I don't think anyone is a huge hit on revenue. The current value of the BE isn't so much driven by who is in it, it is driven by the current seller's market in terms of TV rights. As long as NBC/Comcast is chomping at the bit for a college conference, the BE will get paid.

We deliver the San Diego market so I doubt very much that we are a net loss.

A lot of people didn't even know you guys played D-1 football. SDSU fans should be happy that Boise State is in the league, because that was their ticket to an invite. Not sure what you gain by talking down Memphis (like you have in other posts).

31 million households now, 13in top 30 markets. That's the plan. So, we might be able to determine whether the plan worked or didn't; but not so sure we can determine if x school was net +/- or if 8,10, 12 etc mouths to feed were too many.

(02-08-2012 10:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The $64,000 Question about any new program our conference invites is "will they bring in more revenue to the conference than they will receive from it"? Every new school we add is another mouth to feed, they will take several million dollars in TV and other money, thus, it only makes sense to add a team if they bring in more conference revenue than they take out. If they will receive more than they provide, then this is a bad invitation for the conference to make. If they provide more than they receive, it is a good invitation to make.

In other words, it's their marginal contribution that determines the wisdom of the invitation.

Of course, we can never know in advance what that marginal value - positive or negative - will be. That's what we are all debating when we argue for or against inviting certain schools.

However, one possible indicator of likely marginal value is the reaction of fans of a school to a Big East invitation. If we invite a program and their fans flood this forum celebrating wildly, this strongly suggests that they believe their school will be receiving more money than they contribute. This is good for their school, but bad for the conference, and thus the conference made a mistake in inviting them.

Conversely, if we invite a program and they accept and their fans are morose about it, this suggests that the fans believe their school will contribute more than they receive. Good for the conference, but thus bad for the school.

For example, if Notre Dame joined for football and on an equal basis, they would almost surely contribute more revenue to the Big East than they would receive. And thus their fans would not be celebrating Big East membership, they would be pissed off about it, questioning the sanity of their administrators. In contrast, recent invitations and acceptances have been met with jubilation by fans of those new teams, which suggests that the Big East made bad moves in inviting them.

Seriously flawed logic this time.

The jubilation of fans from Boise State, UH, SMU, and Memphis is more a factor of finally receiving a seat at the grownups table after previously being denied that opportunity during a historical period when they (and many, many others in college sports) believed their were denied a shot at the BCS-level for purely political reasons.

The challenge for the new Big East (and it's bean counters) is to project potential. I think the disagreement here is on (1) what potential; and (2) potential in football, which drives television revenue. Time will prove whether they picked another winner like Louisville, Cincinnati, etc. No one in my house was particularly jubilant when I bought a lot of loser Apple stock several years ago . . . now she kiss me EVERY day! Sometimes twice on Sunday.