Lurking in the rearview mirror
Louisville, Michigan State, Arizona and Kentucky are threats to No. 1 Illinois' title run

By Skip Myslenski
Tribune college basketball reporter

February 21, 2005

Providence was the first team Rick Pitino took to the Final Four, way back in 1987.

"Surprised me," he says of that trip.

In 1996, when he was at Kentucky, his Wildcats made that journey and went on to the national title.

"That was expected," he says of the accomplishment.

He also guided his 1993 and 1997 Wildcats to the Final Four and, in 1992, they failed to make it when Christian Laettner hit a jump shot in overtime and they fell to Duke in perhaps the greatest college basketball game.

"Those years," says Pitino, "we thought we'd be in the tournament, but we didn't know how far we'd go."

Now he is at Louisville, where he coaches a collection of talented Cardinals. Pitino is in the hunt for the Final Four once more.

His team is not as exalted as undefeated Illinois, which dominates all conversations. Yet it is one of many lurking in the shadows. The Cardinals are dangerous and capable of derailing the Illini's dream season.

"On any given day, sure they can," says Cincinnati coach Bob Huggins, whose Bearcats have fallen to both Louisville (twice) and Illinois. "If it's a series, no. But on any given day, anything can happen."

Adds DePaul coach Dave Leitao, whose Blue Demons play host to the Cardinals on March 5:

"I think you look at apparent styles. Illinois is a very aggressive offensive team and so is Louisville. It has the potential of two teams really coming after each other."

Pitino doesn't disagree.

"Everyone's looking for a Villanova (which won the 1985 title as an eighth seed) to show what great prognosticators they are," says Pitino, and then he chuckles. "I don't think we're that type of a great basketball team. But we can do something like that if we look at it one game at a time.

"But you can look at Villanova, look at Maryland, look at Notre Dame getting hot. I look at us in there as one in a clump of maybe 20 teams that could do that. Michigan State, you could say they're under the radar too. Outside of Illinois and North Carolina, everyone is under the radar."

The focus is St. Louis, the site of this year's Final Four. But to reach it unscathed, to preserve its hopes of being crowned the first undefeated national champion since Indiana in 1976, Illinois must traipse through a minefield of hidden dangers.

The other possible contenders aren't as celebrated as the Illini. Many aren't even blips on the conscience, yet each is capable of producing the stunning upset.

Take Michigan State, which Illinois could meet in the Big Ten tournament.

The Illini handily defeated the Spartans on Feb. 1 in East Lansing, but Michigan State is undefeated since then and playing with more poise and purpose. Michigan State is rife with perimeter players talented enough to challenge Dee Brown, Deron Williams and Luther Head.

Or take the Illini's projected second-round game in the NCAA tournament, where they would bump up against an eighth or ninth seed. That could well be an underappreciated team like Charlotte, which has the leading three-point shooter in Conference USA (Brendan Plavich) and is coached by the underrated Bobby Lutz.

Arizona is another team that is underappreciated, yet the Wildcats more than match up with the Illini.

They have an experienced point guard in sophomore Mustafa Shakur, an explosive scorer in senior guard Salim Stoudamire and a versatile athlete on the wing in 6-foot-4-inch Hassan Adams. They have size in 6-11 Channing Frye and 6-10 Ivan Radenovic and they bring 6-9 Isaiah Fox and a trio of talented perimeter players off the bench.

Like the Illini, they love to run and play gnarly defense.

That also is the case with Kentucky, another team that is overlooked despite its No. 3 ranking and 20-3 record. And again, that is true with Pitino's Cardinals, who would be a most intriguing foe for Illinois.

"If we don't rely on our offense to win games, if our defense matches our offense, we can be tough," Pitino agrees. "When we try to outscore people, then I think we're not a dangerous NCAA team.

"Three-point shooting is an asset we have, but when we don't play great defense, we're a very average team. We're small. We lack depth. So we have that weapon. But when we're really good, it's because of our defense."

That is what failed Louisville on Feb. 9 against Memphis, which routed the Cardinals by 17. That also is what rescued them Thursday in Milwaukee, where they shut out Marquette over the last five minutes while rallying from 11 down to win by three.

Defense is what gets them a bevy of easy baskets and ignites their explosive offense. It is what frees up their shooters, who are led by 6-7 junior Francisco Garcia.

"He's so good and does so many things for them, if you don't make it a priority to defend him, he'll beat you five different ways," Huggins says of Garcia.

"He makes every guy out there better, like a Magic Johnson would," says East Carolina coach Bill Herrion. "So you not only have to worry about him driving and scoring, but the things he does for the other players. He's the key."

Taquan Dean, Brandon Jenkins and Larry O'Bannon are three of Louisville's other players. Each is a quicksilver guard and each can shoot the three. The 6-7 Ellis Myles, 6-8 Juan Palacios and 6-8 Otis George are three others. They are undersized but rugged, and Palacios, a freshman, is one more who can shoot the three.
The Cardinals look very much like Illinois—and play like the Illini too. They create havoc with their defense, search for the quick thrust and pop jumpers from a perimeter that extends to their locker-room door. But they are not a mirror image.

"No," Huggins says. "Illinois runs motion, Louisville really doesn't. Louisville runs a lot of staggers to try and get you to chase them so they can penetrate and pitch it."

But the teams are close enough that a matchup would resemble an intrasquad game.

"Garcia would fit very well at Illinois because he plays one, two, three spots," Leitao says. "Dean, he can play on the ball, he can be a shooter. Same as Deron Williams and Dee Brown. O'Bannon has really been like Luther Head. Luther's maybe a little better passer. But O'Bannon can make a lot of shots, guard the toughest guy.

"So they're similar in how they'll attack you from the perimeter. It would be a very, very interesting matchup."

Adds Huggins:

"When Louisville makes shots, they really spread you. Then they're really good at driving it and pitching. And when Palacios makes shots, they're playing four around one and you're really spread. They're similar to Illinois in that way. That's what Roger Powell does to you."

"I agree totally," Pitino finally says. "When we're spaced well and moving it, we can really hurt you."
Copyright 2005, The Chicago Tribune

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