What in the name of Elvis is going on around here?

From the article:

"But does the potential remain for an invitation to the Big East?

That league will have 10 football-playing and 16 basketball-playing members once West Virginia, Syracuse and Pittsburgh depart no later than 2014. Should the Big East want to expand to 12 football-playing members to enable a football championship game, Memphis could find itself back in the discussion -- hence Johnson's words that activity is happening "on all fronts."

There are other ways the Big East could hang the "vacancy" sign, too.

What if Connecticut lands in the ACC? Is the possibility of Louisville to the Big 12 dead?

Memphis has long coveted status in a conference such as the Big East, based largely on two criteria: a bite of a larger pie of shared revenue and automatic qualifying status into the Bowl Championship Series.
"

Expansion door not closed

I would say speculation based on no consensus for #12. Navy has already said not if, but when. That would make #11. Who would pair with Navy? Still have AFA and BYU topping the list for the west. It is a good bet that a tasty TV contract could loosen BYU's conditions a bit but those two still have watched thu bus draive away and it may not want to turn around to give them another chance.

Another thought driving the Memphis talk is the comments of Rick P. wanting Memphis. Not to mention that UC and UL both want in the east division which makes adding teams that are further west (even slightly) a desire for them. Memphis and another (possibly Navy) to the west would appeal to those schools.

This is not news. So the Memphis AD says he doesn't think everyone is done? Shocking!?! No one thinks everyone is done.

Now IF everyone was done making moves......that WOULD BE a shocking revalation.

I'm not sure how bad the Commercial Appeal is as a newspaper, but this article doesn't exactly make them look like trailblazers. Who, exactly, is assuming that the Big East is stopping at 10? I thought the entire nation assumed that the Big East was going to 12, and most media are reporting that Navy is pretty much on board as #11. Everybody I've heard opine on the subject pretty much places Memphis in the Top 5 as an expansion target.

Maybe they were trying to dumb it down a little bit for people that were still hung over from Saturday night. They do party hard in Memphis, I hear.

Everybody knows Navy has no clue as to when they are joining. Navy is posturing, so they can wait and see if the BE can survie. Navy may never happen.

Actually this article goes along with what was reported two weeks ago from Austin. ESPN is pushing The Big 12 to negotiate early. The Big 12 is then to revisit expansion this month. Since October posters from the Oklahoma and Kansas boards have been posting on the Louisville Scout Board that The Big 12 would expand again this spring. That the present hold-up isn't who #11 is but #12.
CJ

(01-03-2012 08:58 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Everybody knows Navy has no clue as to when they are joining. Navy is posturing, so they can wait and see if the BE can survie. Navy may never happen.

Wilkie - I remember in 2004 and 2005, on the C-USA board, how you so coveted Louisville moving to the Big East that you became very unpopular on the C-USA board. Now you are doing the same thing to the Big East coveting the Big 12. Maybe you should go back and relook at Exodus 20:17.

(01-03-2012 08:58 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Everybody knows Navy has no clue as to when they are joining. Navy is posturing, so they can wait and see if the BE can survie. Navy may never happen.

That's a significant issue for the Big East. I agree with the BE's leadership that Navy is the best realistic addition out there for the conference. If they can't join for 5 or 6 years, though, that could be an eternity for realignment purposes. It doesn't make sense to go to 11 schools in the interim. The Big East could go to 12 with the thought of going to 14 later on, but that doesn't make financial sense in terms of splitting TV and bowl money. Of course, this all assuming that a school like Louisville doesn't end up leaving, which may be a false assumption.

My thought is that if the current membership remains intact, the Big East will wait for Navy and then add a western football-only member at the same time. Memphis and Temple seem more like all-sports replacements to slot in if Louisville and/or Rutgers leave (and those schools only make sense as all-sports additions, and no matter what is said out of the BE office, they want to keep the all-sports numbers at 16).

I kinda like that as a new name for the Big 12: "Yer Neighbor's Ass"

The Big East has lost Syracuse, Pitt and West Virginia those were the schools Louisville wanted to play. I never want to be in CUSA, I wanted Louisville to stay independent and not join CUSA. But it is what it is. Louisville is in the Big East until, we leave and if we leave.

(01-03-2012 09:23 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  The Big East has lost Syracuse, Pitt and West Virginia those were the schools Louisville wanted to play. I never want to be in CUSA, I wanted Louisville to stay independent and not join CUSA. But it is what it is. Louisville is in the Big East until, we leave and if we leave.

West Virginia may not play in the Big 12 until 2014. Until then, the Big 12 may have to play with 9 members. If Louisville left the Big East, they would have to stay until 2015 and pay the Big East $10M.

No, we could leave after June 30, 2014, which means we would play 2012 and 2013 in Big East.

(01-03-2012 09:42 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  No, we could leave after June 30, 2014, which means we would play 2012 and 2013 in Big East.

That's correct, but you'd still have to pay the $10M, and the Big East would just go out and get Temple or Memphis.

Louisville won't go to the Big 12. We probably won't even get invited. But let's pretend we do, and that (as is most likely) the invitation comes too late for us legally to play in the Big 12 before the 2015 season. Here is the timeline.

• 2011 - Big 12 members sign a 6-year media rights agreement
• 2012 - Louisville is invited to the Big 12 and pays half its $10 million Big East exit fee. Because the invitation came too late in the year, Louisville is legally required to stay in the Big East through the 2014 season.
• 2012 - Big East negotiates a TV deal guaranteeing member schools a $10 million annual take
• 2013 - Other Big East schools begin collecting their $10 million annual TV money, but Louisville doesn't get the full amount because it's leaving
• 2015 - Louisville finishes paying its $10 million Big East exit fee
• 2015 - Louisville plays its first game in the Big 12, but won't receive the full Big 12 TV payout because of a 3-year waiting period
• 2017 - Big 12 media rights agreement expires and Texas and Oklahoma are once again shopping for new homes.
• 2018 - Louisville is considered a full member of the Big 12 and starts receiving its equal share of the Big 12's TV money, but the TV contract has been downgraded because of the departures of the conference's biggest names and is now on par with what Big East schools are receiving... Louisville is getting the same money as they would've gotten had they stayed in the Big East, but went through five years of receiving less money while paying a $10 million exit fee.
  

Am I saying this is what's going to happen? No, I don't know. But can you say that this scenario is impossible? By no means.

(01-03-2012 10:49 AM)SmallVoice Wrote:  Louisville won't go to the Big 12. We probably won't even get invited. But let's pretend we do, and that (as is most likely) the invitation comes too late for us legally to play in the Big 12 before the 2015 season. Here is the timeline.

• 2011 - Big 12 members sign a 6-year media rights agreement
• 2012 - Louisville is invited to the Big 12 and pays half its $10 million Big East exit fee. Because the invitation came too late in the year, Louisville is legally required to stay in the Big East through the 2014 season.
• 2012 - Big East negotiates a TV deal guaranteeing member schools a $10 million annual take
• 2013 - Other Big East schools begin collecting their $10 million annual TV money, but Louisville doesn't get the full amount because it's leaving
• 2015 - Louisville finishes paying its $10 million Big East exit fee
• 2015 - Louisville plays its first game in the Big 12, but won't receive the full Big 12 TV payout because of a 3-year waiting period
  
• 2017 - Big 12 media rights agreement expires and Texas and Oklahoma are once again shopping for new homes.
• 2018 - Louisville is considered a full member of the Big 12 and starts receiving its equal share of the Big 12's TV money, but the TV contract has been downgraded because of the departures of the conference's biggest names and is now on par with what Big East schools are receiving... Louisville is getting the same money as they would've gotten had they stayed in the Big East, but went through five years of receiving less money while paying a $10 million exit fee.
  

Am I saying this is what's going to happen? No, I don't know. But can you say that this scenario is impossible? By no means.

I see this concern a lot, but where are UT and OU going to go? They both have big-time baggage - UT has the LHN and OU has Oklahoma State. While they are obviously very desirable schools by themselves, they also can't be added with no strings attached, which is why the Pac-16 proposal has fallen through twice. I can't emphasize enough how much the LHN is a deal-killer for all of the other power conferences. Everyone wants Texas... provided that it agrees to be an equal member. Since they absolutely won't agree to being an equal member anywhere (even if the LHN were to be killed off), they'll ultimately stay in the Big 12. Texas WANTS to control the Texas Techs and Baylors of the world. I didn't quite understand that before (as I thought it was purely about money), but that's seriously how they get their rocks off. Perception-wise, they don't want to be in a conference of equals with the likes of USC, Florida or Ohio State. Controlling a conference is as important to Texas from a perception standpoint as being independent is to Notre Dame.

The Big 12 schools that actually had the ability to leave by themselves have all gone. (Note that Oklahoma CANNOT leave by itself, as it MUST take Oklahoma State with them, which kills a ton of their desirability.) It won't ever be a happy-go-lucky-everyone-is-happy-to-be-here league like the Big Ten or SEC, but Texas and Oklahoma have a ton of anchors to the Big 12 (whether financial or political). That makes it a viable league for the long-term.

Plus, even if Texas and Oklahoma were to leave in the worst case scenario, the "leftover" Big 12 schools are still pretty strong. Kansas is a flagship AAU member while TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor still provide Texas market coverage. We just went through a summer where many Big East fans here thought that they could be the raiders of "leftover" Big 12 teams and we saw what happened. I would hope that no one in the Big East would get fooled again. The Big 12 is simply higher on the pecking order. Look at conference realignment over the past two years. Every time that someone lower on the pecking order starts thinking that it can pick off schools from someone higher on the pecking order, the higher pecking order league slaps the lower pecking order league back to the stone age. The Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC did it to the Big 12, the Big 12 and ACC did it to the Big East, and the Big East did it to the MWC and C-USA. S**t will ALWAYS run downhill in conference realignment, so you've got to get as high on the hill as you can (even if you can't get to the top).

(01-03-2012 09:47 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-03-2012 09:42 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  No, we could leave after June 30, 2014, which means we would play 2012 and 2013 in Big East.

That's correct, but you'd still have to pay the $10M, and the Big East would just go out and get Temple or Memphis.

That would be the cost of doing business

(01-03-2012 12:30 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I see this concern a lot, but where are UT and OU going to go? They both have big-time baggage - UT has the LHN and OU has Oklahoma State. While they are obviously very desirable schools by themselves, they also can't be added with no strings attached, which is why the Pac-16 proposal has fallen through twice. I can't emphasize enough how much the LHN is a deal-killer for all of the other power conferences. Everyone wants Texas... provided that it agrees to be an equal member. Since they absolutely won't agree to being an equal member anywhere (even if the LHN were to be killed off), they'll ultimately stay in the Big 12. Texas WANTS to control the Texas Techs and Baylors of the world. I didn't quite understand that before (as I thought it was purely about money), but that's seriously how they get their rocks off. Perception-wise, they don't want to be in a conference of equals with the likes of USC, Florida or Ohio State. Controlling a conference is as important to Texas from a perception standpoint as being independent is to Notre Dame.

The Big 12 schools that actually had the ability to leave by themselves have all gone. (Note that Oklahoma CANNOT leave by itself, as it MUST take Oklahoma State with them, which kills a ton of their desirability.) It won't ever be a happy-go-lucky-everyone-is-happy-to-be-here league like the Big Ten or SEC, but Texas and Oklahoma have a ton of anchors to the Big 12 (whether financial or political). That makes it a viable league for the long-term.

Plus, even if Texas and Oklahoma were to leave in the worst case scenario, the "leftover" Big 12 schools are still pretty strong. Kansas is a flagship AAU member while TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor still provide Texas market coverage. We just went through a summer where many Big East fans here thought that they could be the raiders of "leftover" Big 12 teams and we saw what happened. I would hope that no one in the Big East would get fooled again. The Big 12 is simply higher on the pecking order. Look at conference realignment over the past two years. Every time that someone lower on the pecking order starts thinking that it can pick off schools from someone higher on the pecking order, the higher pecking order league slaps the lower pecking order league back to the stone age. The Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC did it to the Big 12, the Big 12 and ACC did it to the Big East, and the Big East did it to the MWC and C-USA. S**t will ALWAYS run downhill in conference realignment, so you've got to get as high on the hill as you can (even if you can't get to the top).

I agree with everythign you said except the last part. If Texas and OU were to leave, I don't think the leftover Big 12 would be higher in the pecking order than the Big East.

It's just as likely that it goes like this...

• 2011 - Big 12 members sign a 6-year media rights agreement...
• 2012 - Louisville and UC/Rutgers are invited to the Big 12 and each pays half the $10 million BEast exit fee...
• 2012 - The BEast decides sponsoring football is detrimental to the core group of founding members remaining, and after the 2012 season BEast football becomes a footnote in the history books...

(01-03-2012 12:48 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  It's just as likely that it goes like this...

• 2011 - Big 12 members sign a 6-year media rights agreement...
• 2012 - Louisville and UC/Rutgers are invited to the Big 12 and each pays half the $10 million BEast exit fee...
• 2012 - The BEast decides sponsoring football is detrimental to the core group of founding members remaining, and after the 2012 season BEast football becomes a footnote in the history books...

Maybe, but those schools still need to wait 27 months before leaving.

No court in the nation will force schools to stay in a conference that doesn't support their largest moneymaking sport. You can take that to the bank...