From what I have been told and from what I understand about this whole thing is:
First, if a spilt did occur, the NCAA Tournament would have to expand by 3 more teams, one more at large bid for the Big East basketball schools, and one more play-in game.
Second, some Big East ADs that voted for Marquette and DePaul to join over adding a football school are now kicking themselves in the arse. Making basketball into a super-power conference may backfire and hurt the NBE's overall RPI.
Third, the Big East and A-10 have had a long relationship in working together. There has been increasing support from Charlotte, the University of Richmond, and George Washington University for the addition of East Carolina University for basketball and other sports besides football. This would provide all of these schools with another regional opponent, give the A-10 a top 25 baseball, softball, indoor and outdoor track and field, mens and womens swimming, cross-country, and women's golf team (all ECU teams which are/have been ranked in the top 25 this academic year), making the A-10 have more say so on the national level.
Fourth, don't be surpised to see St. Louis leave the A-10, and even if St. Louis stays, there would be not much difference between a 14 member A-10 and a 15 member A-10.
From what I have been told and from what I understand, I have no doubts that East Carolina will be the 9th member for football only at first, and if a split does occur, they would be extended full membership.
Football members of the current New Big East really should not worry about the BCS revenues because each school would receive the same if there were only 8 or 9 members. The pie would be extended, but not sliced even more, look at the ACC's move....
Last, don't be surprised to see a push for Nova to bring its football program up to D-1A. I am not saying that it is going to happen, but Nova may see a push from Mike T if a split seems likely as a way to save the 16/17 member Big East.
In my opinion, I think we should have split during expansion and a split will occur before 2010.
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