(11-22-2011 03:15 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-22-2011 03:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I tend to look at OOC results as being more indicative of team strength,

As for biases, what force is likely stronger - my tendency to see glasses as half-full

Your analysis is based on your admitted opinion that how a team played in September is more indicative than their final 7 or 8 games when predicting bowl results. If you want to go off September and forget anything after October 1st so be it.

As for your last sentence, I'll go out on a super short limb and say you're probably alone on this board in viewing yourself as a "glass half-full" kind of guy!

LOL ... i meant "half-empty" of course. :)

Beyond that, i didn't say that first games matter more than later games in predicting bowl results, and i surely didn't say that games after October 1st should be forgotten. Those errors are indicative of your biased pro-UofL mindset.

What i said was that OOC games are more important in predicting a bowl game result, whenever they are played, since the bowl game is an OOC game.

And UofL's OOC record this year is dismal.

(11-22-2011 04:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-22-2011 03:15 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-22-2011 03:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I tend to look at OOC results as being more indicative of team strength,

As for biases, what force is likely stronger - my tendency to see glasses as half-full

Your analysis is based on your admitted opinion that how a team played in September is more indicative than their final 7 or 8 games when predicting bowl results. If you want to go off September and forget anything after October 1st so be it.

As for your last sentence, I'll go out on a super short limb and say you're probably alone on this board in viewing yourself as a "glass half-full" kind of guy!

LOL ... i meant "half-empty" of course. :)

Beyond that, i didn't say that first games matter more than later games in predicting bowl results, and i surely didn't say that games after October 1st should be forgotten. Those errors are indicative of your biased pro-UofL mindset.

What i said was that OOC games are more important in predicting a bowl game result, whenever they are played, since the bowl game is an OOC game.

And UofL's OOC record this year is dismal.

Louisville has improved since the early season OOC games. They are a better team.

Say what you want about the Cards. There's no denying our OOC record is pretty dismal. But I still predict we beat USF and so it'll be up to other people to keep us from representing the BE in a BCS bowl.

If we win the conference, we'll accept the bid, so arguing over our record is immaterial. And if we go, we'll bring a good crowd, though I don't imagine our TV ratings will exactly be through the roof.

Also, if we end up playing Va Tech, don't count Charlie Strong's boys out. Our coach knows what he's doing, and our team of freshmen with a true freshman QB has improved immensely over the course of the season. Strong's coached national championship teams. I think he can coach the Cards into a respectable showing in any bowl game they end up going to.

(11-22-2011 05:50 PM)SmallVoice Wrote:  Say what you want about the Cards. There's no denying our OOC record is pretty dismal. But I still predict we beat USF

I predict you probably will too. But we'll see about that.

:lock:

(11-22-2011 02:12 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-22-2011 01:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-22-2011 01:06 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-21-2011 11:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-21-2011 04:44 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  I would be fine with Louisville in a BCS bowl, so long it is not against Arkansas. Their defense is generally good enough to keep the team in the game, even if the offense struggles. However, of potential teams they could face, Arkansas' offense is so good, the defense could not even keep it close. Plus, they woulf definitely try to run up the score, and possibly succeed.

Louisville is a 6-5 team with home losses to FIU and Marshall on its resume. It would be in grave danger of being blown out by just about any imaginable BCS bowl opponent.

This is a good example of you playing your Debby Downer character here on the board without much insight above and beyond glossing over the quickest stats. That's what I'd expect from ESPN. I'm not opposed to reality but let's also try and use our brains here.

Anyone that has been watching knows UofL is not the same team they were 2 months ago...

Come on. 6-5 is 6-5. Who have you played better against recently? Have you been playing LSU, Oklahoma, and Alabama? You're not offering "insight", just Cards-fan wishful thinking.

The facts say that unless you face a real soft ACC team, UofL would be in big danger of a blowout loss. Sorry about that ...

I don't know about that, Steve. The Louisville team that came into conference play isn't the same team that started out the season. The Cards have improved considerably over their start to the season...

BTW, Oklahoma State was favored by 4 TDs over Iowa State. Who won?

You cant be serious? Its one game that usually happens every year to a couple of really good teams, I wouldnt want it to happen but louisville is basically a lock for a beatdown in the BCS. BTW Uconn last year! Thats what it would be

Yes. I am serious. Louisville is still inconsistent. But Teddy Bridgewater is a very good QB, and when he's on, he can be very dangerous...

Also, anybody can be beaten on a given day. I can't count the number of games that were locks that went the other way. I'm sure you can count a couple of them, like the 2006 Sugar Bowl and the 2008 Fiesta Bowl. Nobody gave the Mountaineers a chance in either game, yet we won both...

So when I listen to all the so-called "experts" on this board talking sh!t, I take it with a grain of salt. Those "experts" have been proven wrong more times than I can count...

(11-23-2011 09:35 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Yes. I am serious. Louisville is still inconsistent. But Teddy Bridgewater is a very good QB, and when he's on, he can be very dangerous...

Also, anybody can be beaten on a given day.

We all know this, which is why no one has said "UofL will surely get routed in a BCS bowl". Upsets happen.

But, it's also true that when team X is favored by 25 over team Y, what usually happens is that team X whips team Y by a large margin. That's one reason why the big upsets are so memorable - they are rare and thus stand out to us.

Bottom line is that all objective evidence suggests that UofL is a mediocre team. Sagarin currently ranks them #67, and they have played the #66 schedule.

In other words we're talking about a team that at best will end up 7-5 against a soft schedule. All signs suggest that if they play a true top-10 level team, they will get whipped. That's no guarantee it will happen, and I'll be pulling hard for the Cards. But that's what is likely to happen.

Steve, you could have said the very same thing about Iowa State prior to their game against OSU, or the opponents of either of the games the Sooners lost...

(11-23-2011 10:00 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Steve, you could have said the very same thing about Iowa State prior to their game against OSU, or the opponents of either of the games the Sooners lost...

Absolutely. And it would still be the right thing to say.

Maybe this example will clarify: let's say you and i are at a WV casino and you are about to put all your chips on the #7 on a roulette wheel with 36 numbers. Your odds of winning are 1/36, so i say "be careful Jamie, what's likely to happen is you will lose all your money because the odds are way against you". You reply with "Steve, you could have said the same thing before the Iowa St/Oklahoma game, but guess what happened"? So the wheel is spun and voila, the ball lands in #7 and you are now 35 times richer than you were a moment ago. Could Jamie rationally say "see Steve, you shouldn't have said the odds were way against me and i was likely to lose"? Of course not. The odds were in fact 1/36 against you and you were overwhelmingly likely to lose your money. The fact that you got extremely lucky and the "upset" actually happened doesn't change that at all, and the NEXT time you put all your money on one number, i'd be just as justified in calling your attention to the long odds ...

In football, sometimes the #67 team defies the odds and beats the #6 team. Iowa St/Oklahoma is a good example. But usually what happens is that #6 wins by about 25 points. That's likely to be Louisville's fate in a BCS bowl ...

Steve, if I hit #7 on the roulette wheel, I wouldn't say anything about it, except maybe...

But I sure wouldn't be talking about the odds I beat to hit the jackpot. I'd be more concerned with the jackpot I had just won, rather than the odds against my winning it. Screw the odds. Just give me the money...

(11-23-2011 01:20 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Steve, if I hit #7 on the roulette wheel, I wouldn't say anything about it, except maybe...

But I sure wouldn't be talking about the odds I beat to hit the jackpot. I'd be more concerned with the jackpot I had just won, rather than the odds against my winning it. Screw the odds. Just give me the money...

(11-23-2011 01:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In football, sometimes the #67 team defies the odds and beats the #6 team. Iowa St/Oklahoma is a good example. But usually what happens is that #6 wins by about 25 points. That's likely to be Louisville's fate in a BCS bowl ...

UofL would be a larger underdog in the Sugar Bowl against Michigan, but the more likely placement would be the Orange against the ACC rep.

You used Sagarin, so to stay consistent, here's how much of a favorite he has for possible ACC teams over UofL:

UVA- 2 points
Clemson- 7 points
VT- 10 points

Are you still insisting on a blowout if UofL ended up there (FAR from a sure thing) against the ACC?

(11-23-2011 02:41 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 01:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In football, sometimes the #67 team defies the odds and beats the #6 team. Iowa St/Oklahoma is a good example. But usually what happens is that #6 wins by about 25 points. That's likely to be Louisville's fate in a BCS bowl ...

UofL would be a larger underdog in the Sugar Bowl against Michigan, but the more likely placement would be the Orange against the ACC rep.

You used Sagarin, so to stay consistent, here's how much of a favorite he has for possible ACC teams over UofL:

UVA- 2 points
Clemson- 7 points
VT- 10 points

Are you still insisting on a blowout if UofL ended up there (FAR from a sure thing) against the ACC?

I don't insist on anything. I just point out the odds, which (and i said this earlier) unless UofL plays a soft ACC opponent, it will likely get clobbered in a BCS bowl.

(11-23-2011 09:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 02:41 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 01:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In football, sometimes the #67 team defies the odds and beats the #6 team. That's likely to be Louisville's fate in a BCS bowl ...

UofL would be a larger underdog in the Sugar Bowl against Michigan, but the more likely placement would be the Orange against the ACC rep.

You used Sagarin, so to stay consistent, here's how much of a favorite he has for possible ACC teams over UofL:

UVA- 2 points
Clemson- 7 points
VT- 10 points

Are you still insisting on a blowout if UofL ended up there (FAR from a sure thing) against the ACC?

I don't insist on anything. I just point out the odds, which (and i said this earlier) unless UofL plays a soft ACC opponent, it will likely get clobbered in a BCS bowl.

You keep moving the finish line so to speak. I've included a relevant quote from you in post #41 of the thread. Using only your own words, you've at least changed your argument from "UofL will get likely blown out by anyone in a BCS bowl" to "UofL will likely get blown out in a BCS bowl by everyone except the Big East rep's likely opponent!

(11-21-2011 11:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Louisville... would be in grave danger of being blown out by just about any imaginable BCS bowl opponent.

I agree with Quo....I think whoever wins the BE will get bombed in the BCS game...

(11-23-2011 09:59 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 09:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 02:41 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 01:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In football, sometimes the #67 team defies the odds and beats the #6 team. That's likely to be Louisville's fate in a BCS bowl ...

UofL would be a larger underdog in the Sugar Bowl against Michigan, but the more likely placement would be the Orange against the ACC rep.

You used Sagarin, so to stay consistent, here's how much of a favorite he has for possible ACC teams over UofL:

UVA- 2 points
Clemson- 7 points
VT- 10 points

Are you still insisting on a blowout if UofL ended up there (FAR from a sure thing) against the ACC?

I don't insist on anything. I just point out the odds, which (and i said this earlier) unless UofL plays a soft ACC opponent, it will likely get clobbered in a BCS bowl.

You keep moving the finish line so to speak. I've included a relevant quote from you in post #41 of the thread. Using only your own words, you've at least changed your argument from "UofL will get likely blown out by anyone in a BCS bowl" to "UofL will likely get blown out in a BCS bowl by everyone except the Big East rep's likely opponent!

(11-21-2011 11:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Louisville... would be in grave danger of being blown out by just about any imaginable BCS bowl opponent.

er, from post #48:

"The facts say that unless you face a real soft ACC team, UofL would be in big danger of a blowout loss. Sorry about that ... "

(11-23-2011 11:33 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 09:59 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 09:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 02:41 PM)CollegeCard Wrote:  

(11-23-2011 01:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In football, sometimes the #67 team defies the odds and beats the #6 team. That's likely to be Louisville's fate in a BCS bowl ...

UofL would be a larger underdog in the Sugar Bowl against Michigan, but the more likely placement would be the Orange against the ACC rep.

You used Sagarin, so to stay consistent, here's how much of a favorite he has for possible ACC teams over UofL:

UVA- 2 points
Clemson- 7 points
VT- 10 points

Are you still insisting on a blowout if UofL ended up there (FAR from a sure thing) against the ACC?

I don't insist on anything. I just point out the odds, which (and i said this earlier) unless UofL plays a soft ACC opponent, it will likely get clobbered in a BCS bowl.

You keep moving the finish line so to speak. I've included a relevant quote from you in post #41 of the thread. Using only your own words, you've at least changed your argument from "UofL will get likely blown out by anyone in a BCS bowl" to "UofL will likely get blown out in a BCS bowl by everyone except the Big East rep's likely opponent!

(11-21-2011 11:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Louisville... would be in grave danger of being blown out by just about any imaginable BCS bowl opponent.

er, from post #48:

"The facts say that unless you face a real soft ACC team, UofL would be in big danger of a blowout loss. Sorry about that ... "

Could care less what people opinion on what would happen in BCS Bowl game if we make it.

We start 9 Freshman and play 19 Total Freshman game in game out. Louisville is the 2nd youngest team in FBS Football and it is remarkable that if we win Friday we @ worst win a share of the BIG EAST Title.

To do what we done with a True Freshman QB, So. RB , starting Freshman @ WR and as many as 3 Freshman on the OLine along with 2 on the DLine and a couple in the Secondary is a testament to the job Coach Strong has done in recruiting and developing young talent.

If we win the BCS Spot and take our lumps so be it. I take the experience and with this group they would use it as a learning experience and a spring board to 2012.

(11-24-2011 12:10 AM)Maize Wrote:  Could care less what people opinion on what would happen in BCS Bowl game if we make it.

......

If we win the BCS Spot and take our lumps so be it. I take the experience and with this group they would use it as a learning experience and a spring board to 2012.

Fair enough.

(11-24-2011 11:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-24-2011 12:10 AM)Maize Wrote:  Could care less what people opinion on what would happen in BCS Bowl game if we make it.

......

If we win the BCS Spot and take our lumps so be it. I take the experience and with this group they would use it as a learning experience and a spring board to 2012.

Fair enough.

Beat the Eers next week to get into a bowl.